February CET

[paul tall]

Anthropogenic Global Warming

you and me!

Ah right.

A new, conscience crushing buzzword, lets all give Gordon Brown an extra 20 quid each.

[Snowly does it]

SM - that's a fairly naughty piece of statistical work! Both the spell in December and January were far colder than this one in its early stages. You're playing a little with the quirk of the fact that it's only the 4th of the month and happens to have coincided with the third cold spell of the winter! But I suspect you're being playful rather than serious lol?

:lol:

lol

[West is Best]

Ah right.

A new, conscience crushing buzzword, lets all give Gordon Brown an extra 20 quid each.

What a trite response to a serious problem Paul.

How about you go and read the IPCC report and then see if one-liners like that about the state of the planet are any longer appropriate? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs...imatereport.pdf

[paul tall]

No, I don't think I'll bother.

[West is Best]

No, I don't think I'll bother.

If you want to be an ignoramus on the subject then that's fine, but you have no right to comment without expecting to be taken apart if you're not prepared to look at the facts.

It takes a lot to make me irate, but the very, very, few people like you who deliberately put their head in the sand are a menace to this world. At least almost all the other sceptics on here looked at the facts.

Edited February 4, 2007 by West is Best

[paul tall]

I'm not in denial, however I can't get the cynicism out of my head that its all a money making exercise.

They should put plans in action to stop it rather than taxing airline tickets to stop global warming. Instead of spending money, theres a lot of people out there trying to generate money.

[Optimus Prime]

Yes OP may well be right with his suggestion of 4.8C by the 5th.

Does look that way doesnt it? Metcheck has it currently at 5.2c and N-W has it at 5.4c. So the metoffice should be around the 5.3c mark. Another frosty night should lower it to 4.8c possibly exactly! So it just goes to show the GFS can accurately predict temperatures 5 days ahead.

Anyway seeing as that was so accurate I'll give it a go from the 6th-10th. The average temperature during this period is -0.2c mostly due to some very low minima. By the 10th the CET should be around 2.3c. 0.5c colder then was being suggested 5 days ago.

2.3c is 1.5c below 61-90 and 1.9c below 71-000.

JUst for the fun of it I went upto the 15th. The period temperature value suggested at the moment from the 5th-15th is 1.4c and so the average temperature upto the 15th could be as low as 2.1c.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I actually agree with both sides of the GW argument- I think of it as a major issue that needs tackling, but can't help thinking that the politicians see it as an excuse to generate money. Contrary to popular belief I don't think this excess revenue is to pay for politicians' holidays; it's more likely to give themselves more leeway with inefficient spending while maintaining a stable economy.

However, more discussion on this issue would be better suited to the Environment forum. In the meantime, I think it's well worth standing by my 4.4C, as we may well end up needing upward correction later in the month to get to it.

[West is Best]

I'm not in denial, however I can't get the cynicism out of my head that its all a money making exercise.

They should put plans in action to stop it rather than taxing airline tickets to stop global warming. Instead of spending money, theres a lot of people out there trying to generate money.

OK - well here I have a lot of sympathy with you actually. I do agree that this problem is now ripe for manipulation by the greed-merchants. Oh, the irony of it: that people should be trying to rake-in money over the destruction of the planet's delicate climatic equilibrium. However, I do think the IPCC report is excellent work, and beyond all that. At the same time, they were astute enough to know that if anything is to happen they have to talk the language of the people in control. Here I dissent from TWS. A bone dry academic piece of work would have ended up gathering dust on the shelf. This is that all too rare beast in academia: something that is both academically rigorous and actually readable.

Anyway, we have certainly got off the CET topic!

If I had the time again would I have stuck with my original 5.4C punt for February? Actually, no. Would I have gone for 7.4C? Probably not. Something in the 6's, possibly high 6's looks about right to me. I still think we're in for a warm finale to the month.

Edited February 4, 2007 by West is Best

[Optimus Prime]

If the signs are towards a blocked, cold and snowy month WIB then why not atleast for the time being go for what FI suggests?

I absolutely agree with your first paragraph. I think part of the reason why people are so skeptical about AGW and some who don't care are because they hate the government so much they don't want to give more money away to them to try and save the planet.

We've polluted the planet massively since the late 1800's. We're the reason why the planets warming up and why we have a reduced chance of seeing snow and cold every year winter passes. But it doesn't mean in the immediate future snow and cold won't be notable. I'd say we have les then 20 years until it becomes impossible though!

[SNOW-MAN2006]

We've polluted the planet massively since the late 1800's. We're the reason why the planets warming up and why we have a reduced chance of seeing snow and cold every year winter passes. But it doesn't mean in the immediate future snow and cold won't be notable. I'd say we have les then 20 years until it becomes impossible though!

Hi OP,

Whether we get snow all depend on the synoptics. The last few years has seen a pattern change with High pressure situated further east and more low pressure dominance. Enless we get high pressure really far east to allow low pressure to get into europe then we see mild sw'lys so the thing to blame for no snow is that high pressure isnt far west enough to drag in easterly winds and it isnt to east enough to allow a northerly flow from northerly's (this is the trend and at times it varies) all we need is the right synoptics for snow....

SM06

[johnholmes]

Ah right.

A new, conscience crushing buzzword, lets all give Gordon Brown an extra 20 quid each.

come on Paul, sensible constructive comments rather than somewhat silly one liners. This is not the topic for it, its CET, so please go to the thread which has the full IPCC summary report in, do read it, its long and difficult in parts, but please read it then make comment in the correct thread.

John

[SNOW-MAN2006]

current metcheck CET at 5.1 which is quite cool, i expect the cet to finish off at around this value after further watching the models....

SM06

[Stratos Ferric]

...Something in the 6's, possibly high 6's looks about right to me. I still think we're in for a warm finale to the month.

That's my boy...

Anybody expecting a blocked month is probably living in a narcotically induced dream world.

[Thundery wintry showers]

However, I do think the IPCC report is excellent work, and beyond all that. At the same time, they were astute enough to know that if anything is to happen they have to talk the language of the people in control. Here I dissent from TWS. A bone dry academic piece of work would have ended up gathering dust on the shelf. This is that all too rare beast in academia: something that is both academically rigorous and actually readable.

I'm not sure if I dissent there at all- I have nothing but praise for the way the IPCC have conducted their report.

[Snowly does it]

That's my boy...

Anybody expecting a blocked month is probably living in a narcotically induced dream world.

Good point although it is a possiblity looking at current output.

Will be an interesting one this month. I was concerned my 4.2 was too low but given that this week may well see it drop to a more realistic winter level, it would require something a la December and Jan to get it back into 6plus form, February a shorter month and the cold spell looks a little longer than the Jan or Dec ones were (at this stage).

I am quite prepared at this very early stage to put my and Richards monthly steak on an outturn no higher than 6.0 degrees (with my personal belief being a likely 4-5 with 5-6 if zonality wins through for mid-late Feb)

[Stratos Ferric]

Having said that, Philip Eden has just made a note of how in a westerly dominated month that we have just had, it was unusual to see such a mild month for such a relatively high proportion of northerly flow.

West

Run that one by me again???????? Westerly month, high proportion of northerly flow????? 'Westerlies' are actually SW'ly winds for the UK.

BFTP

Blast: Westerlies as Philip defines them are pretty much anything between SW and NW. Let's not bend facts to avoid uncomfortable truths. This is a re-run of Philip's point re August (when, for the unaware, Philip made the point that for such a northerly dominated month the remarkable things was that temperatures weren't a lot lower than they actually outturned, which was average...put another way, August, with the coldest synoptic set-up possible, was NOT a cold month in comparison with even the recent record, let alone the long record); given that around a quarter of last month was northerly - yes, there was a lot of SW'ly but not all the W'ly was SW'ly - then the fact that January was execptionally warm is something of a surprise. There will be less northerly months than the last one which will have been cooler. Sooner or later you'll wake up to what's actually going on. There comes a point when continued denial of facts and evidence goes beyond sensible scepticism and becomes pig headed ignorance.

My cet is, 7.1.

How can "you" have a "CET"? Do you mean your average for the month to date? It's like me saying "my RPI is" or "my FTSE 250 is"...?

[Stratos Ferric]

When 'proper' scientists use temperature data measured to one decimal place in a series of calculations (say for example in NWP), do they use one decimal place in every step of the calculation or do they use more but give the final result to one decimal place?

In my mind, if you only used 1 decimal place in each step, then every step in the calculation would introduce a larger margin of error in your final result do to cumulative rounding errors. Can anyone stop my brain from huring and confirm how this is actually done?

The correct form is to quote at 1sf less than used in the calculation unless the values used are precise values. Thus, my till receipt at Sainsbury's is precise and requires no rounding; but if I measure off a map how far I have run, and want to calculate an average over several runs, my measurements are likely to be imprecise and though I may "report" to 2d.p's, I'm likely to be +/- 0.1, so as you suggest, should report for real precision only to 1 d.p.

[Duncan McAlister]

Blast: Westerlies as Philip defines them are pretty much anything between SW and NW. Let's not bend facts to avoid uncomfortable truths. This is a re-run of Philip's point re August (when, for the unaware, Philip made the point that for such a northerly dominated month the remarkable things was that temperatures weren't a lot lower than they actually outturned, which was average...put another way, August, with the coldest synoptic set-up possible, was NOT a cold month in comparison with even the recent record, let alone the long record);

Whilst not denying global warming, I think it is incorrect to say that August had the coldest synoptic setup possible. Most of the August's northerlies circulated around the Azores High, not sourced from the Arctic.

The point has also been made that August 1995 had a high proportion of northerlies, and it wasn't exactly nippy either....

I suspect that with the coldest synoptics a month would still be cold, but just 0.5-1.0 higher than it would have previously. The question is of course whether GW has changed synoptics, my suspicion is yes, but it still doesn't rule out the occasional cold month.

[The PIT]

I think some here need Chill out tablets. Sense of Humour seems to be lacking in some parts. I noticed the CET has dropped again today so it may even get down to normal by the end of the week.

[West is Best]

If the signs are towards a blocked, cold and snowy month WIB then why not atleast for the time being go for what FI suggests?

Because it's my forecast. I'm not going to let FI charts push me around. Hurrumph. Allowing oneself to be blown by every model [Ed. could you, er, phrase that a little differently?] is not my style

TWS - I really do apologise. I have just re-read the IPCC thread and realise your comment on 'sensationalism' referred not to the IPCC report but to the article from The Star that Pit quoted. I must say, I did think at the time it seemed rather out of kilter. Will teach me to wear my glasses when on NW in future. Sorry.

Edited February 4, 2007 by West is Best

[Weather-history]

Blast: Westerlies as Philip defines them are pretty much anything between SW and NW. Let's not bend facts to avoid uncomfortable truths. This is a re-run of Philip's point re August (when, for the unaware, Philip made the point that for such a northerly dominated month the remarkable things was that temperatures weren't a lot lower than they actually outturned, which was average...put another way, August, with the coldest synoptic set-up possible, was NOT a cold month in comparison with even the recent record, let alone the long record

As I pointed out a few times, these things are never clear cut.

The most southerly August is 1950 but that had a CET of 15.6. By logic, you would think that should have a higher CET but it didn't.

The 2nd most northerly January in Philip's list in 1981 but that had a CET of 4.9 Logic would tell you it should have been colder but it wasn't.

On face value they are never clear cut as you may think.

[ukmoose]

Looking through this thread, I can't see an updated list so here it is. Sorry if I've missed anyone - let me know. Some may be in twice as there were a lot of corrected entries - let me know if you spot any duplicates or inaccuracies!

Is this the largest spread yet?

Moose

AlexL -1.1

Vince -0.8

Winston 0

Paul Tall 1.7

Weather Wonder 1.7

Tesaro 1.7

The Eye in the Sky 1.9

Mountain Shadow 2

Summer of 95 2

Pottyprof 2.1

Rusty Nailer 2.2

Simon 2.4

Helly Hanson 2.4

S4lancia 2.6

Snowyowl9 2.8

Convesction 2.8

Sub zero 2.8

Kold Weather 2.9

Wellington Boot 3

Steve Murr 3.2

Paul Carfoot 3.2

Blast from the Past 3.3

Kippure 3.3

Tamara G 3.3

Mark H 3.4

Roger J Smith 3.4

Fishdude 3.5

Snowjoke 3.6

Rollo 3.6

David Snow 3.6

Gray Wolf 3.6

Gavin P 3.7

Snowfluff 3.8

Bartlett Low 3.9

High Ground 3.9

Krasnoyarsk 4

Shuggee 4

Don 4

Snooz 4.1

SteveB 4.1

Great Plum 4.2

Snowmaiden 4.2

James M 4.4

Vizzy2004 4.4

Bristol Blizzard 4.4

Thundery Wintry 4.4

Jimmyay 4.5

Yeti 4.6

Summer Blizzard 4.7

Snowuse 4.7

Theresnoway 4.7

Eddie 4.7

Somerset squall 4.8

Kentish Man 4.8

Supercell 4.8

Mr Data 4.9

Cymru 4.9

Hiya 4.9

Mezzacyclone 5

Robbie 5

Chilly Milly 5

Bessy 5.1

Windswept 5.1

Bottesford 5.2

Atlantic Flamethrower 5.3

Anti Mild 5.4

philn.warks 5.4

Scorcher 5.4

Cheeky Monkey 5.5

WBSH 5.5

ChrisL 5.5

Sundog 5.6

Megamoonflake 5.6

osmposm 5.6

optimus Prime 5.7

guitarnutter 5.7

Duncan McAlister 5.7

Reef 5.8

JohnAcc 5.8

The Penguin 5.8

TimmyH 5.9

UkMoose 6

Village Plank 6

Stargazer 6

Beng 6.1

Stephen Prudence 6.1

Jimmyay 6.1

Joneseye 6.1

The Calm before 6.2

Stratos Ferric 6.4

Terminal Moraine 6.4

Kold Weather 6.7

The Pitt 6.8

Storm Chaser 6.8

Optimus Prime 7.1

West is Best 7.4

Craig Evans 7.5

Ledbury Lad 7.7

Snow Man 2006 7.7

[Stratos Ferric]

As I pointed out a few times, these things are never clear cut.

The most southerly August is 1950 but that had a CET of 15.6. By logic, you would think that should have a higher CET but it didn't.

The 2nd most northerly January in Philip's list in 1981 but that had a CET of 4.9 Logic would tell you it should have been colder but it wasn't.

On face value they are never clear cut as you may think.

Mr D, the points that you and Duncan Mc make are quite reasonable, and I think that at the time these points were also made, even so, I stand by my contention that polar sources are not the cause of as much "correction" as they once were. The method used for establishing "westerliness" and "southerliness" is not without flaws when it comes to interpretation, and also a month needs to be viewed as a whole.

Looking through this thread, I can't see an updated list so here it is. Sorry if I've missed anyone - let me know. Some may be in twice as there were a lot of corrected entries - let me know if you spot any duplicates or inaccuracies!

Is this the largest spread yet?

...well done that man.

Edited February 4, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think a record breaking CET month is thankfully beyond us, let's try and get it below 6 !

U r having a laugh IB.....after the warmists grind about continued zoneality and mild I amenjoying this....its all cycles. SF we shall talk at the end of the month....looking good Houston B)

BFTP

There comes a point when continued denial of facts and evidence goes beyond sensible scepticism and becomes pig headed ignorance.

Yes SF pigheadedness mate...you for one could not see next week coming. Just to add the latest IPCC report IS IN FACT a further climb down. It was 5-8c rise, then 3-5c and now 3...whatever next

BFTP