February CET

[Joneseye]

The current N-W UK tracker figure for February 2007 is: 4.91°C

(difference from average February CET is 0.71°C)

No data yet from Climate-UK and I cannot be bothered to look at other sites...

[Stratos Ferric]

U r having a laugh IB.....after the warmists grind about continued zoneality and mild I amenjoying this....its all cycles. SF we shall talk at the end of the month....looking good Houston

BFTP

There comes a point when continued denial of facts and evidence goes beyond sensible scepticism and becomes pig headed ignorance.

Yes SF pigheadedness mate...you for one could not see next week coming. Just to add the latest IPCC report IS IN FACT a further climb down. It was 5-8c rise, then 3-5c and now 3...whatever next

BFTP

Truly bizarre. In what respect am I being pigheaded?

As far as I'm aware the latest report in fact UPS the range for potential change in temperature.

I will more than happily talk at the end of the month. Remind me again, what were you promising us back in autumn? Wasn't it a return to the 80s and the coldest Feb since the early 80s? Spot on so far this winter.

And if you bothered to read any of my observations last week I made it perfectly clear that the modesl were hinting at something cooler in the future, even if that hint was not to be relied upon. Truly, I do wish I had your forecasting skill of course.

If there's one thing that recent weather should teach us all it's not to crow early.

Edited February 5, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[Glacier Point]

Looking through this thread, I can't see an updated list so here it is. Sorry if I've missed anyone - let me know. Some may be in twice as there were a lot of corrected entries - let me know if you spot any duplicates or inaccuracies!

.... [cough] http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...st&p=905957

GP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Truly bizarre. In what respect am I being pigheaded?

As far as I'm aware the latest report in fact UPS the range for potential change in temperature.

I will more than happily talk at the end of the month. Remind me again, what were you promising us back in autumn? Wasn't it a return to the 80s and the coldest Feb since the early 80s? Spot on so far this winter.

And if you bothered to read any of my observations last week I made it perfectly clear that the modesl were hinting at something cooler in the future, even if that hint was not to be relied upon. Truly, I do wish I had your forecasting skill of course.

If there's one thing that recent weather should teach us all it's not to crow early.

SF

The pigheadedness refers to me...yes I am . It reads funny I know but it is I it refers to. This month is returning to the 80s style set up and this is the first round which will be won by the less cold / not mild before a stronger cold block emerges from around 16-19 Feb. Yes I remember you saying that about the models but it is a cold setup not cool. Also I got Nov and Dec right and my CET estimates support that but Jan was well out, the initial change we saw 17-20 was 2 weeks later than called.

Re the report the Telegraph ran a story on it late last year and here is the initial summary

Mankind has had less effect on global warming than previously supposed, a United Nations report on climate change will claim next year.

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says there can be little doubt that humans are responsible for warming the planet, but the organisation has reduced its overall estimate of this effect by 25 per cent.

A downgrade not an upgrade. I might be crowing too early but a decent start I shall say with more to come and am happy with my CET punt.

BFTP

Edited February 5, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[johnholmes]

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says there can be little doubt that humans are responsible for warming the planet, but the organisation has reduced its overall estimate of this effect by 25 per cent.

can you show me that part of the report please?

[North-Easterly Blast]

Although off topic for the February CET slightly, I believe that Philip pointed out that August 2006 was the most northerly August since 1986, yet it still returned a CET on the Hadley scale of 16.1, around average. I would say that a "most northerly month" isn't always likely to be well below average, as the pressure component over the UK for any particular day can still be northerly, even though the northerly may be coming round the northern flank of an Azores High, and not from deep inside the Arctic circle. Summing this up, I would still say myself that August should still have been colder than it actually was; there were frequent northerlies around mid-month, although more W'ly / NW'ly types were frequent after the 20th, and there was a warm spell around the 6th. I think if an August had exactly the same synoptics 20-30 years ago as Aug 2006, and not come after such a hot July when SSTs would have moderated the coolness of the northerlies, then I would say that a CET of around 15.5 would have been the more likely outcome, not the 13.7 in August 1986, as the northerlies of that month were often from way up in the Arctic circle, so in historical terms the synoptics of August 2006 would never have produced a CET anywhere near as low as the 13.7 in 1986, but possibly slightly below average, more like 15.5 rather than the 16.1 that actually occurred in Aug 2006.

The above paragraph partly explains why January 1981 still ended up milder than average overall, even though it was the second most northerly Jan on Philip's records, as if you look at the historic charts for Jan 1981, the northerlies were frequently from round the northern flank of the Azores High, and not from inside the Arctic Circle, and in winter a northerly round the northern flank of an Azores High will not bring temps below average, as its source is not cold.

Saying the above, January 1981 was still not too bad a month overall, it still did deliver some relatively short cold northerly spells and some snowfall to some places at times.

[Stratos Ferric]

...

The above paragraph partly explains why January 1981 still ended up milder than average overall, even though it was the second most northerly Jan on Philip's records, as if you look at the historic charts for Jan 1981, the northerlies were frequently from round the northern flank of the Azores High, and not from inside the Arctic Circle, and in winter a northerly round the northern flank of an Azores High will not bring temps below average, as its source is not cold.

Saying the above, January 1981 was still not too bad a month overall, it still did deliver some relatively short cold northerly spells and some snowfall to some places at times.

Agree, hence my comment about the method (for deriving flow indeces) not being without flaws.

[The PIT]

Back to the Feb CET. Amazing differance between Sheffields average and the CET area. We've got 7.3C while Netweather has 4.89C. Due to way My Davis Weather Station records temps thats much closer at 5.2C.

[ukmoose]

.... [cough] http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...st&p=905957

GP

My apologies, GP - I will attend to it!

Moose

[johnholmes]

mine for the first 5 days stands at 5.8C

[ukmoose]

mine for the first 5 days stands at 5.8C

Have I missed your punt, John?

For GP

AlexL -1.1

Vince -0.8

Winston 0

Paul Tall 1.7

Weather Wonder 1.7

Tesaro 1.7

The Eye in the Sky 1.9

Mountain Shadow 2

Summer of 95 2

Pottyprof 2.1

Rusty Nailer 2.2

Simon 2.4

Helly Hanson 2.4

S4lancia 2.6

Snowyowl9 2.8

Convesction 2.8

Sub zero 2.8

Kold Weather 2.9

Wellington Boot 3

Steve Murr 3.2

Paul Carfoot 3.2

Blast from the Past 3.3

Kippure 3.3

Tamara G 3.3

Mark H 3.4

Roger J Smith 3.4

Fishdude 3.5

Snowjoke 3.6

Rollo 3.6

David Snow 3.6

Gray Wolf 3.6

Gavin P 3.7

Snowfluff 3.8

Bartlett Low 3.9

High Ground 3.9

Krasnoyarsk 4

Shuggee 4

Don 4

Snooz 4.1

SteveB 4.1

Great Plum 4.2

Snowmaiden 4.2

James M 4.4

Vizzy2004 4.4

Bristol Blizzard 4.4

Thundery Wintry 4.4

Jimmyay 4.5

Yeti 4.6

Summer Blizzard 4.7

Snowuse 4.7

Theresnoway 4.7

Eddie 4.7

Somerset squall 4.8

Kentish Man 4.8

Supercell 4.8

Mr Data 4.9

Cymru 4.9

Hiya 4.9

Mezzacyclone 5

Robbie 5

Chilly Milly 5

Bessy 5.1

Windswept 5.1

Bottesford 5.2

Glacier Point 5.2

Atlantic Flamethrower 5.3

Anti Mild 5.4

philn.warks 5.4

Scorcher 5.4

Cheeky Monkey 5.5

WBSH 5.5

ChrisL 5.5

Sundog 5.6

Megamoonflake 5.6

osmposm 5.6

optimus Prime 5.7

guitarnutter 5.7

Duncan McAlister 5.7

Reef 5.8

JohnAcc 5.8

The Penguin 5.8

TimmyH 5.9

UkMoose 6

Village Plank 6

Stargazer 6

Beng 6.1

Stephen Prudence 6.1

Jimmyay 6.1

Joneseye 6.1

The Calm before 6.2

Stratos Ferric 6.4

Terminal Moraine 6.4

Kold Weather 6.7

The Pitt 6.8

Storm Chaser 6.8

Optimus Prime 7.1

West is Best 7.4

Craig Evans 7.5

Ledbury Lad 7.7

Snow Man 2006 7.7

Moose

...well done that man.

You're welcome.

Moose

[Optimus Prime]

The current CET now is 3.8c according to Metcheck. So at last we've had the CET at average for a winter month this year.

Tonight will see some very severe frosts so don't be surprised if it dropes by 0.4c. Could well be down to 3.1c by the end of tomorrow.

[Polar Continental]

The mean in Burton is falling rapidly now, currently riding at 0.2c, we have had some bitterly cold nights now since last Friday, last night down to -8.1c.

Paul

[Joneseye]

WIB seems to have stopped posting his daily updates on the CET progression, the potential IMO for further cold shots later in the month with the jet on a southerly course. Could we get an average to slightly above month ?

In which case I will post the 2 that matter:

The current N-W UK tracker figure for February 2007 is: 3.41°C

(difference from average February CET is -0.79°C)

CET: (Feb 1- 6): 4.2°C (+0.2 degC) © Philip Eden (If you wish to use or copy these figures, please acknowledge the source)

I suspect that the widespread overnight temps and this morning will have a bit more of an impact on the CET on Climate-Uk.

Regards

Ian

[West is Best]

WIB seems to have stopped posting his daily updates on the CET progression, the potential IMO for further cold shots later in the month with the jet on a southerly course. Could we get an average to slightly above month ?

Ian - I started a new job this week so just can't make the board much, but in any case Philip only posted the first Feb figure yesterday. It's now at 4.2C. Interestingly, he is 0.4C above NW tracker.

It's far too early for me to be calling for the hemlock this month. I still fancy a nice warm up shortly, and am hoping to be near 6C by the 15th. But either way, does this thread really warrant snideness? Methinks not my friend! Peace.

Edited February 7, 2007 by West is Best

[Snowly does it]

Ian - I started a new job this week so just can't make the board much, but in any case Philip only posted the first Feb figure yesterday. It's now at 4.2C. Interestingly, he is 0.4C above NW tracker.

Damn! and I was banking on NWx tracker being ahead by a few tenths like last month!

I think NWx was around 4 yesterday before the cold frosts began to kick in? May have been lower, I can't really remember!

[West is Best]

Damn! and I was banking on NWx tracker being ahead by a few tenths like last month!

I think NWx was around 4 yesterday before the cold frosts began to kick in? May have been lower, I can't really remember!

Hiya - it was at 3.8 last night.

I think this is where taking only 1 min and 1 max gives a slightly higher reading than a tracker, because in a generally cold day there's usually just enough 'thermality' fleetingly to lift the maxima up.

[Snowly does it]

Hiya - it was at 3.8 last night.

I think this is where taking only 1 min and 1 max gives a slightly higher reading than a tracker, because in a generally cold day there's usually just enough 'thermality' fleetingly to lift the maxima up.

OK, gotcha.

Be interesting to see how low this gets before the milder air wins back through.

[Hemlock]

It's far too early for me to be calling for the hemlock this month.

[Joneseye]

Hiya - it was at 3.8 last night.

I think this is where taking only 1 min and 1 max gives a slightly higher reading than a tracker, because in a generally cold day there's usually just enough 'thermality' fleetingly to lift the maxima up.

As posted above the Net-Weather tracker is now 3.41C

[Weather-history]

It's far too early for me to be calling for the hemlock this month. I still fancy a nice warm up shortly, and am hoping to be near 6C by the 15th.

You need it Richard because your prediction is seriously in trouble already.

To get to 6C by the 15th, it would need 7.2C daily. Its going to be more than that after today, I suspect the daily CET mean could be sub zero today.

The odds are against it Richard.

Edited February 7, 2007 by Mr_Data

[The PIT]

You need it Richard because your prediction is seriously in trouble already.

To get to 6C by the 15th, it would need 7.2C daily. Its going to be more than that after today, I suspect the daily CET mean could be sub zero today.

The odds are against it Richard.

Suddenly from 12th it averages 10c daily. I still think my 6.8C is possible.

[Weather-history]

Suddenly from 12th it averages 10c daily. I still think my 6.8C is possible.

You must referring to the maxima and not the mean. It would need to be very mild to have an average mean of 10C. The values I've quoted are mean values.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Suddenly from 12th it averages 10c daily. I still think my 6.8C is possible.

You must referring to the maxima and not the mean. It would need to be very mild to have an average mean of 10C. The values I've quoted are mean values.

Mr D is right TP.

Here is the 00z GEFS ensembles for South Yorkshire

The average for the whole run never reaches 10oC

[Thundery wintry showers]

Mr D, the points that you and Duncan Mc make are quite reasonable, and I think that at the time these points were also made, even so, I stand by my contention that polar sources are not the cause of as much "correction" as they once were. The method used for establishing "westerliness" and "southerliness" is not without flaws when it comes to interpretation, and also a month needs to be viewed as a whole.

...well done that man.

I agree that January was warmer than it should have been; I base my assertion on the northerly spell from 21st-25th January, which although it did produce snow in places, it was outstandingly warm for a northerly- even taking into account the modification around the periphery of the Atlantic high. Temperatures here in the North East were only about a degree lower than they were during the similar, but half-hearted, northerly incursion of 17-19 November 1999- note November, not January!

The mild northerly will have resulted in less of a downward correction to the CET.

At the moment I still like the look of my 4.4C CET prediction; teleconnections do favour the cold north-easterly after midmonth that I envisaged, though I think the mild spells will be just enough to outweigh the cold ones, relative to the 71-00 average.