12z model discussion - it's gonna get cold...

[PersianPaladin]

I think its an upgrade for mid-term prospects. I don't really care to be honest about snow now; just nice to see some real cold upper air over my way by Thursday (if I can bring myself to believe it).

I'm still sceptical of the evolution tho.

[Snowly does it]

Looks like the S coast and then the SE might get VERY interesting by this run, although the very far SE is margainal with 850s over the -5.

-10s into the NE by T108-114

[Steady Easterly]

Yep quite dry but cold run so far, -7C in part of western England at about 90 hours. So quite alot different than previous, with what looks like a very dry but very cold airmass. This one is going to go right down to T+12 I think.

The various models struggle badly imo, when a block to our east develops things can and do change quickly, history proves this.

[The Eagle]

Amazing run. Great for all of us

[wellington boot]

By the way I meant to say: if this JMA chart came off the hills and mountains in Ireland would probably be under many feet:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1204.gif

15-20cm per hour snowfall!

Looks too marginal for low ground though.

no its 24 hour snowfall, not per hour

[Matty M]

Off to watch the end of the nail biting Welch mathc..

this runs off the walls..

[PersianPaladin]

The board is slowing down for me....I think Paul may have to remove the user lists.

[MKN]

Amazing run. Great for all of us

Im not confident with this run, looks more like the first low will now deliver only to the southern extremes, followed by the second low arriving with temps being to high for snow.

[Nick F]

The second low arrives on Friday in the SW approaches on a more N'erly track than the first, colder -5C 850s further North this time:

[guitarnutter]

my dreams of any half decent snow smashed yet again

[Harsh Climate]

my dreams of any half decent snow smashed yet again

Its only one run, get a bloody grip!

[SP1986]

Up to 138 hours it's the classic snow turns to rain scenario for most of southern UK however looking past 120 hours is not going to answer any questions, but the model run shows a short but sharp cold snap (and this model run hasnt finished with its cold I'm sure!)

[The Eagle]

Im not confident with this run, looks more like the first low will now deliver only to the southern extremes, followed by the second low arriving with temps being to high for snow.

The precip type charts show snow for a time from the second system. However this is FI.

These charts look very 87ish......

[Snowyowl9]

ALERT!

You can't help but wonder whether the models are about to start showing the evolution of a famous cold spell this week.

Is another chapter about to be written in Paul Hudson and Ian McCaskill's book??

Could we get..frozen in time?

This late.. and to follow on from this winter so far....!

Tamara

I agree it`s certainly an alert the first chart I looked at on this run wow!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1021.png

[BARRY]

The second low arrives on Friday in the SW approaches, colder -5C 850s further North this time:

it will change tonight gut feeling the 18z is gonna keep it further south

[Matty M]

Uncertainty begins at T_60hrs

The track of the first low aint near decided yet

[The Eagle]

It only starts to warm up on this run at 150hrs.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It was on the 06z aswell remember....don't worry about that, I think its just a small temporary feature.

I don't think the low over N Scandinavia is any concern whatsoever, unless you don't like the idea of more cold air being sent to the North and East of us (which often happens in "easterly" scenarios; remember that the Scandinavian High often retreats to Greenland opening the back door up for a N'ly into north-western Europe)

Strangely, the GFS 12Z looks even more similar to how the JMA looked a few days ago.

[Snowly does it]

Yes the second lp tracks a little further north than the first, it would bring snow to rain for the south but snow further north, and worth bearing in ind the position of the jet and that this lp is now 100 mile further south than on the 06z and preceeding runs. The set-up is hifting west and south progressively atm. A further shunt south and that would be 2 aggressive channel lows consecutively - thats neither a ramp nor a prediction but it is worth watching for over the next few days.

[MKN]

Uncertainty begins at T_60hrs

The track of the first low aint near decided yet

Completely agree with that each run is unsure of where about the first low goes, it makes its move between 48 - 60hours out, so anything after +48 is suspect, i think wel have to wait til tuesday so we can actually see where it goes to give us a better idea on what kind of weather thursday wil bring.

[Yeti]

I preferred the 6z as far as this area is concerned, with the low taking a more N'ly track; however this is only one run and everything is chopping and changing.

What will be really interesting is to see whether the ECM takes this theme on board later on. That would be an encouraging sign.

[The Eagle]

Every body here should be delighted with this run IMO. Colder, snow for the vast majority at some stage and room for even further upgrade.

[summer blizzard]

Has the JMA upgraded its resolution or something?????????

These upgrades are poor for my area, i would much rather have a stalling front than snow showers from the North Sea, soory all but i am not sacrifising myself for southern area, i expect an immediate upgrade to my situation.

On a serious note, places that win out in the final setup could get as much as 30cm.

[PersianPaladin]

Looking pretty damn good for parts of the south-east at T96 onwards.

[Steady Easterly]

Has the JMA upgraded its resolution or something?????????

These upgrades are poor for my area, i would much rather have a stalling front than snow showers from the North Sea, soory all but i am not sacrifising myself for southern area, i expect an immediate upgrade to my situation.

On a serious note, places that win out in the final setup could get as much as 30cm.

Or even a foot?