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18z model discussion - all aboard the snowlercoaster!

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted (edited)

as Nick F has pointed out its quite a shift north of both the heavier ppn band and the 850mb -5C and below. This will happen with each run, it will oscillate north and south as the model zeroes in on the final position. Always does, any ppn band, its just that we don't watch it this close in other seasons.

IF its correct then by 18z the band of heavier ppn will be in the Yorks, Lincs area and parts of north Norfolk. It seems to have fragmented over England further west but is still showing over N Ireland at the same intensity. With its prog of 850mb temps (from Extra) at -6 in the south of this area and -7C in the north then snow seems the most likely bet.

By this time tomorrow it will have decided and we can all go to bed(well most of us) and assume its got it about right, whatever it shows.

John

ps

re the snow, that is inland and again probably above about 200ft, so sunny donny should miss it as usual!

Edited by johnholmes
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Timmytour Accomplished

Timmytour

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Posted

Is there a hurricane heading our way for the weekend ;)

That's look a pretty nasty depression in the Atlantic...

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Yeti Apprentice

Yeti

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
Posted (edited)
Rather than haveing all the precipitation in wales/midlands, the north of ireland/irish sea is suppost to get a lot now... shawly comeing straight of the sea it would maintain itself and push into west yorkshire!

Only 1 run, but heading in the right direction!

Great for here (never mind those S'ners saying it's too progressive!) It's a great run although I'm sure it's getting silly keeping looking at the back and forth nature of the charts like this, it's doing no good - the meto have no idea and hardly any forecaster dares mention it, they just say look at the website at the very end - and so best stick to the radar nearer the time.

Edited by Yeti
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sweepdog Newbie

sweepdog

Posted
  • Location: Church Fenton (N Yorks )
  • Location: Church Fenton (N Yorks )
Posted

The models have been indicating a general shift northwards for a little while now. I recall when the new year event (2005/6) came to nought BUt then the trend was southwards and in similair timescales. You probably can't compare but a trend is surely a trend. I just hope that if this comes off for us Yorkies its not to the detriment of saturday and the bigger picture later in the month ?

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reef Veteran

reef

Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

Subtle differences at as soon as T+48 between the 12z and 18z. A nightmare for forecasters which will no doubt not be resolved until only a few hours before.

12z:

post-2418-1170799148_thumb.png

18z:

post-2418-1170799161_thumb.png

Massive difference in the shape of the low to the west. Everything moved further northwards aswell, much better run for people in the North. ;)

Edited by reef
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Mondy Enthusiast

Mondy

Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert
Posted
Is there a hurricane heading our way for the weekend ;)

That's look a pretty nasty depression in the Atlantic...

There's been a few of us watching for a potential storm brewing around the 10th on the storm threads - certainly a monster at +72

airpressure.png

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smich Rookie

smich

Posted
  • Location: Barnet, North London
  • Location: Barnet, North London
Posted

I agree with John Holmes' "zeroing in" idea.

Isle of Wight, Lincoln, Reigate, Luton......

....Barnet! Woohoo!

smich

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted
Subtle differences at as soon as T+48 between the 12z and 18z. A nightmare for forecasters which will no doubt not be resolved until only a few hours before.

12z:

post-2418-1170799148_thumb.png

18z:

post-2418-1170799161_thumb.png

Massive difference in the shape of the low to the west. Everything moved further northwards aswell, much better run for people in the North. ;)

not massive, slight changes really to me

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Michael Winston Apprentice

Michael Winston

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham U.K.
  • Location: Birmingham U.K.
Posted (edited)
re the snow, that is inland and again probably above about 200ft, so sunny donny should miss it as usual!

Never say die John.*

Regards,

Mike.

*you could live in Birmingham, after all!!! ;)

Edited by Winston
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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Maybe runs like this on the ECWMF ensembles are why the FAX charts were changed so much.

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

But what about us Midlanders. Isn't it about time us snow starved Midlanders got the best of it for a change. Its been at least 10 years since i last saw decent snow down in Derby. ;)

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Yeti Apprentice

Yeti

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
Posted
Maybe runs like this on the ECWMF ensembles are why the FAX charts were changed so much.

I hope so, it will be interesting to see the next FAX output, to see if the pattern continues...

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

now there is a horror story, I have once many years ago, Donny is not my favourite place of those I have lived in but a shade up on your neck of the woods I have to say.

sorry off topic mods, slapped wrist.

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PersianPaladin Aficionado

PersianPaladin

Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
Posted

To be honest; I've got mixed feelings about this feature moving further north. If it does, then it gives me more of a chance of some lying snow; however, it risks scuppering our chances of a decent snow event later on from the east.

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

Everything turning back to rain very quickly on this run as the low sweeps north, wheres the blocking gone? Also major bye bye time for the South...Of course the Knock on effect is that the 10th Feb event will now probably be RAIN for everyone! ;)

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Yeti Apprentice

Yeti

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
Posted
If everything is moving north dosnt that kill the snow option off come saturday. :unknw:

Seems to make a bit of difference, although snow easily possible from this chart in the N:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1024.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1022.png

850s low enough futher N. Possibly a N'ly track from the SW feature would mean a worse outcome for the S, with the bulk of England in the mild air?

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PB22 Enthusiast

PB22

Posted
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
Posted

Interesting 18Z at T+96. Much of the country is still very cold, and pressure is higher to the northeast. Saturday could be another snowy day.

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Snowly does it Rookie

Snowly does it

Posted
  • Location: Norfolk
  • Location: Norfolk
Posted

:unknw: -->

QUOTE(Paul B @ 6 Feb 2007, 10:10 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Interesting 18Z at T+96. Much of the country is still very cold, and pressure is higher to the northeast. Saturday could be another snowy day.

But the -5 850s have deserted by then....

Looks far more marginal for Thursday for many too?

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

Definitely goes pear shaped for snow from Saturdays event.

TBH Saturday is still in FI though by recent standards so i'm not going to concern myself with it. Its Thursday i'm looking at, and :unknw: at!!!

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Yeti Apprentice

Yeti

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
Posted
Attacked by rain though :unknw: very bad 18z

Disagree, snow boundary could still easily be within your grasp from the 18z... although we need a new motorway for our substitute 528 Dam line!

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