18z model discussion - all aboard the snowlercoaster!

[TEITS]

Bit confused teits, me head is spinning dude.When the updated fax charts come thro can you post them, im needing to sleep. thanks :lol:

Here we are.

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/fax/PPVmate9.png

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/fax/PPVO89.png

[Surrey Snowstorm]

I sense another backtrack in the morning...

Tamara

Backtrack for who though?

[disco-barry]

Hopefully i want this cold spell to last, still want snow though.

:lol:

The latest fax chart, is that a low over n.e england or?

[MAF]

In a strange way I much prefer the models to continue to disagree because I would find tracking the event on Thurs much more exciting by doing this using the Sat/radar pics.

I may even buy some bottles of pop & popcorn and stay up all tomorrow night to watch this unfold :lol: .

well i am working tomorrow night so will be there too

[ribster]

Summary for the south:

850hpa temps - too high.

ground temperature - too high (3-5C)

dew point - too high (4C)

There will be a period of heavy wet snow, dangerous driving conditions during the morning rush hour, followed by rain. There won't be any lying snow after 12pm on the higher ground.

Well most weather agencies have already stated that any snow will be followed by rain in the south, so it won't last, only above 700 ft will it last. So didn't take a genius to work out the above.

[swfc]

I sense another backtrack in the morning...

Tamara

Please elaborate. :lol:

[Yeti]

The GFS and ECM

The answer lies somewhere between the METO and GEM

reasoning?

[disco-barry]

Well in one respect it would be sense and in the other it would be hope :lol:

[carnoustie]

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/fax/PPVO89.png

Being in NE Scotland, that looks promising for me. :lol:

Given that milder air is not that far away, it's a bit of a knife-edge job though. :lol:

[Snowyowl9]

I`m sticking with the meto runs and the GFS 12z run,it`s only 36hrs away now or less than that.

This run`s even better takes the snow into France :lol: but much better in the long term from GEM.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rgem481.gif

Edited February 6, 2007 by Snowyowl9

[snowmadchrisuk]

how long for the essembles?

[Supercell]

Beginning to see yet another cataclysmic non-event developing. Always the way when set-ups apparently favour the Midlands. Not a good run for all areas. The potential for the weekend dies with this initial progressive low.

All we can do is hope for upgrades tomorrow.

[Snowly does it]

GFS and ECM are tracking the shortwaves wrong IMO - they will slide more WNW -ESE rather than E-W. It means that these models are over egging the northward push of ppn and milder air

IMO anyway!

Tamara

Yes, I agree with you Tamara, the W-E laying of that feature doesn't compute with the jet pattern surely?

[SP1986]

GFS and ECM are tracking the shortwaves wrong IMO - they will slide more WNW -ESE rather than E-W. It means that these models are over egging the northward push of ppn and milder air

IMO anyway!

Tamara

I have pack of cards - choose a card :lol:

[MKN]

GFS and ECM are tracking the shortwaves wrong IMO - they will slide more WNW -ESE rather than E-W. It means that these models are over egging the northward push of ppn and milder air

IMO anyway!

Tamara

Have to agree with you there, i think we need to wait till tommorow before judging the 18z gfs :lol:

Edited February 6, 2007 by SnowTornado

[swfc]

Well im going for a northerly with a few wintry showers and then a toppler.Ok il get me coat but you never can tell. :lol: :lol:

[Paul]

Ensembles are trickling in at the moment (on extra), they will be complete and onto the free area at about 23.45.

Looking at the mean, it is very similar in terms of the northerly extent of things to the GFS, so that gives a clue that there is reasonable support for the GFS tonight..

Ensemble mean:

GFS

[Yozzer]

Being in NE Scotland, that looks promising for me. :lol:

Given that milder air is not that far away, it's a bit of a knife-edge job though. :lol:

On the coast you will be very lucky to see snow, the 528DAM (I know its not the only factor, but in this set up it will be a major one) is north of you anyway. And since when is Carnoustie North-East Scotland...............?? :lol:

[dinger]

try these two charts for GFS similarity

first is the 12z version

and now for soemthing a little different

this is its 18z version from today for the same day and time, that is 14 Feb 07 00z

John

special super prize from Paul for anyone that spots the major similarity. This does not include the valid for date and time!

Big russian/scandi high with low pressure through central europe propping it up?

Thought I would have a guess John so you know that we do read your posts whilst sifting through the masses during these exciting times. :lol:

Colin

[shuggee]

Latest Fax chart for Saturday stays with the GFS Operational 12z's view. Good to see the front ahead of the 528dam line :lol:

[SP1986]

Ensembles are trickling in at the moment (on extra), they will be complete and onto the free area at about 23.45.

Looking at the mean, it is very similar in terms of the northerly extent of things to the GFS, so that gives a clue that there is reasonable support for the GFS tonight..

Ensemble mean:

GFS

Ah so perhaps it's not anomaly as some where suggesting (ie dive south), It seems from that There will be rain across south Midlands, southern counties on Thursday (apart from say a few hours of heavy snow before it turns), then about tea time snow turning to rain across lowland north Wales, and part of southern Northwest England, Derbyshire, and Lincolnshire etc. North of say Manchester looks like hanging onto any snow that there might be. But of course it will change - were talking 10-20 miles difference which isnt alot in terms of weather systems to be honest!

[grab my graupel]

Have to agree with you there, i think we need to wait till tommorow before judging the 18z gfs :lol:

Well I haven't a clue what is going to happen, I don't think I have ever seen so much

disagreement and confusion.

It's looking like we won't actually know until the day arrives.

I don't know whether to stay up for the 00z now.

could be interesting.

[Nick F]

Latest Fax chart for Saturday stays with the GFS Operational 12z's view. Good to see the front ahead of the 528dam line :lol:

Looks a corker for you in Edinburgh shuggs, turn for Scotland and N'ern England on Saturday maybe, though chance that the low could be modelled further South, dependent on where the jet disrupts against the strenghtening ridge to the North and NE.

[shuggee]

Not seen a jet chart for a while - so worth a gander.

Look at all that lovely energy going south of the UK :lol:

Looks a corker for you in Edinburgh shuggs, turn for Scotland and N'ern England on Saturday maybe, though chance that the low could be modelled further South, dependent on where the jet disrupts against the strenghtening ridge to the North and NE.

Yep - I'm also thinking there's a few more twists and turns until we get there :lol:

[mushymanrob]

Latest Fax chart for Saturday stays with the GFS Operational 12z's view. Good to see the front ahead of the 528dam line :lol:

surely to god that wouldnt be good for snow!... itll all melt and be gone..

seeing snow is one thing, having it settle and stay is another,,

im still sticking with 'ill believe it when i see it'.. im FAR from convinced that this coming event will be a widespread snow event.

my prediction?... mass frustration that many wont see settling snow.