18z model discussion - all aboard the snowlercoaster!

[Just Below Zero]

I'm expecting model upgrades. Temps on Saturday will fall. As for Thursday, heavy snow for S/SE to begin with, then Northwards it goes. Surprised your temps in Exeter was 4.3C @ 23:39 hrs! Air temps in Croydon is currently -1C!

I would like you to confirm when the so called even larger teapot started in the UK. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, my Grandad who was born in 1901 kept records on weather patterns and I can tell you right now that you would then have to class some of the good old days as modern winters too!

I can confirm in S Dorset temp at 2320 was +4.1C. Cant see where any snow will come from here

[J10]

The UKMO chart has the highest has the highest risk of disruption in Wales and the Midlands at 70%, with Northern England at 30% (this was issued on Tuesday morning) . It will be interesting to see this chart updated Wednesday morning.

[robert]

I'm expecting model upgrades. Temps on Saturday will fall. As for Thursday, heavy snow for S/SE to begin with, then Northwards it goes. Surprised your temps in Exeter was 4.3C @ 23:39 hrs! Air temps in Croydon is currently -1C!

I would like you to confirm when the so called even larger teapot started in the UK. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, my Grandad who was born in 1901 kept records on weather patterns and I can tell you right now that you would then have to class some of the good old days as modern winters too!

Hi Yamkin,

Yes there will be upgrades but it is the waiting that makes so many loose hope. Then again this is weather at it's best when the models are changing so much. *Passes cookies and hot chocolate around*

Robert

[MAF]

The UKMO chart has the highest has the highest risk of disruption in Wales and the Midlands at 70%, with Northern England at 30% (this was issued on Tuesday morning) . It will be interesting to see this chart updated Wednesday morning.

yep, can't wait for the update

[snowray]

I know we should take what we can get but i dont want to see snow for a couple of hours only for it to be melted away shortly after.

But then again i would enjoy the couple of hours of snow so you are probably right

I agree, I'd prefer a true wintery and longer lasting set up as well, but at least the 18z is showing an hour or two of snow at some point on Thursday for most of us, it has to be said that its being very fair spreading it out a bit like that.

[yamkin]

Evening all

Just delurking for a quick `twopenneth worth`.

Re the ongoing lack of detail regarding nailing this wintry period of upcoming weather, the METO have updated their weather warning at 23.01 tonight to cover the whole of england for a `period of heavy snow` on Thursday morning Meto. Talk about covering their a***s!

I honestly don`t think the meto boys have a much better handle on how this is all going to pan out, than the experienced posters on here!! Just hope the the cold block is a bit stronger than is being progged tonight.

Some excellent reading and learning to be had on this forum, keep it up!

WOTS

Part of the MetO's model data we the public do not see speaks volumes. They know what we the public view on the various models. Even our Mr Mild Ramper Everton Fox is still going for snow for S/SE to spread Northwards. here comes the big BUT, their disclaimer (which is understandable) ...This warning will be updated by 1100 tomorrow, Wednesday 7th February 2007.

[mac]

Evening all

Just delurking for a quick `twopenneth worth`.

Re the ongoing lack of detail regarding nailing this wintry period of upcoming weather, the METO have updated their weather warning at 23.01 tonight to cover the whole of england for a `period of heavy snow` on Thursday morning Meto. Talk about covering their a***s!

I honestly don`t think the meto boys have a much better handle on how this is all going to pan out, than the experienced posters on here!! Just hope the the cold block is a bit stronger than is being progged tonight.

Some excellent reading and learning to be had on this forum, keep it up!

WOTS

Not at all, I think Meto were taking a real chance there!

An update has just been posted covering ALL of UK:

"Major risk of snowfall to all areas, falls from 25 to 1000 inches likely.

There is also a major risk of extreme heat/tornadoes/drought/hurricanes throughout the period".

[yamkin]

I can confirm in S Dorset temp at 2320 was +4.1C. Cant see where any snow will come from here

ok, but still surprised 8P

[watcheroftheskies]

Not at all, I think Meto were taking a real chance there!

An update has just been posted covering ALL of UK:

"Major risk of snowfall to all areas, falls from 25 to 1000 inches likely.

There is also a major risk of extreme heat/tornadoes/drought/hurricanes throughout the period".

Brilliant!

To be fair they will firm up the detail by tomorrow evening...just hoping there are no more downgrades otherwise it will be a damp squib down here (as usual!)

[yamkin]

Hi Yamkin,

Yes there will be upgrades but it is the waiting that makes so many loose hope. Then again this is weather at it's best when the models are changing so much. *Passes cookies and hot chocolate around*

Robert

Hi Robert, There will always be upgrades and downgrades. This is where the MetO crew really get to work with their input/output data feeds.

Goodnight all and be ready for the upgrades.

[Bottesford]

I don't think, if the front hits here, that it'll be any damp squib. There's some very cold air around (-2.5c here at the moment - coldest temp of year). We got a fair dumping of snow with temps -0.5 to 1c the other week. Any precip falling into this air mass will be frozen. Its just a question of how far the precip gets. Down south, it's much less certain of snow as the air is somewhat warmer.

[wellington boot]

I don't think, if the front hits here, that it'll be any damp squib. There's some very cold air around (-2.5c here at the moment - coldest temp of year). We got a fair dumping of snow with temps -0.5 to 1c the other week. Any precip falling into this air mass will be frozen. Its just a question of how far the precip gets. Down south, it's much less certain of snow as the air is somewhat warmer.

Somewhat warmer eh? Down here in oxford the temp is at -3.5C now and it feels bitter.

On the subject of the 18z, it's clearly a massive downgrade. And a downgrade for everyone. I see why northerners feel it could at least give them a dumping earlier on, but let's face it, even on thursday/friday, it's far more marginal. -5 850 line is a good 200 miles further north and east at the same point as on the 12z, really a vast downgrade. Partly to blame for this is the absence of the low passing through in a position to recirculate the -5 air down south a bit again. As for saturday, whatever some people want to believe, if you go by the gfs, it would be a miracle to see proper settling snow if you wern't fairly far north and on the pennines.

You guys up north have got to give it up and send thursday back south to me, if you want anything good for yourselves. That way we all win.

I'm fairly calm seeing the 18z, because everything can change, and the 18z isn't exactly the most reliable run of the gfs, but even the ukmo is worse than it was for me a run or two ago, so by tomorrow morning we really need some significant upgrades if the potential is to be fulfilled.

[SnowJoke]

Definately not warm in Milton Keynes. I now live bang in the middle of the city in central milton keynes. The main shopping complex is just accross the road. @ 02:00hrs the temp outside here is -4.4'c. Brrrrrrrrrrr.

[wellington boot]

Im loving this calm before the storm. Plenty of people around, but everyone all posted out on the runs we already have. Now just waiting for the next data nervously. The calm before the storm

[SMU]

Im loving this calm before the storm. Plenty of people around, but everyone all posted out on the runs we already have. Now just waiting for the next data nervously. The calm before the storm

t0 Starting position of the Atlantic shortwave is varified farther south-

i know this sounds odd- but it different to the 18z 06 prog-

S

[wellington boot]

t0 Starting position of the Atlantic shortwave is varified farther south-

i know this sounds odd- but it different to the 18z 06 prog-

S

Are you sure?? The 00z looks like it has the high fractionally weaker to the north, while the low is slightly further extended towards us. Note the difference between the lie of the 1000mb line over ireland. Plus the 1005mb line to the north is fractionally further north. Possibly irrelevant, but slightly unsettling nonetheless

[andy_leics22]

Are we going to have a new thread for the 00z?

[wellington boot]

Are we going to have a new thread for the 00z?

looks like not. Though maybe its just caught them out, as its a bit early. At the moment everything looks a little bit more progressive, with the low fractionally closer to us, heights fractionally lower to the north and east, and 850s receding that bit faster. The track is still subject to change though. It may not take this dramatic swing northwards the 18z went for.

[SMU]

Are you sure?? The 00z looks like it has the high fractionally weaker to the north, while the low is slightly further extended towards us. Note the difference between the lie of the 1000mb line over ireland. Plus the 1005mb line to the north is fractionally further north. Possibly irrelevant, but slightly unsettling nonetheless

Well.........

the GFS doesnt want to give this one up- almost the same as the 18z

S

[wellington boot]

Well.........

the GFS doesnt want to give this one up- almost the same as the 18z

S

Yes im afraid were staring down the barrel of another downgrade, even if with regards to thursday, its an upgrade for the far north, as the 00z has the low tracking even further north.

And now i am starting to get worried. Because the gfs is looking very sure of itself, and the ukmo's last run was worse, and even with the uncertainty, at this range there's limited scope for changes. There really just doesn't look to be powerful enough blocking to the north.

Edited February 7, 2007 by wellington boot

[PersianPaladin]

Well.........

the GFS doesnt want to give this one up- almost the same as the 18z

S

[wellington boot]

I dont know whether it's worth anything, but the jet is fractionally further south this run, with the atlantic low correspondingly further south. At only t54 though, this does not yet mean anything.

[andy_leics22]

The 00z Doesen't look too bad for me still, 850's are marginal for Thursday but the max ground temp of 2c for me will do! And the PPN is still well and truly there to produce the snow, still a bit 50-50 but still looks good from a personal point of view I expect the 06z and the 12z to be better than these last two runs though, dont forget ...It's not reccomended to to compare different model runs, for example... The 12z and the 00z or the 06z and the 18z etc...

I'm going bed now, absolutely completely shattered! See you all tomorrow, take care

[wellington boot]

The 00z Doesen't look too bad for me still, 850's are marginal for Thursday but the max ground temp of 2c for me will do! And the PPN is still well and truly there to produce the snow, still a bit 50-50 but still looks good from a personal point of view I expect the 06z and the 12z to be better than these last two runs though, dont forget ...It's not reccomended to to compare different model runs, for example... The 12z and the 00z or the 06z and the 18z etc...

I'm going bed now, absolutely completely shattered! See you all tomorrow, take care

nighty night. I havent lost all hope yet. Just somewhat disturbed by this run. And while the jet is a leedle bit further south, the system is quicker coming in, and is still hitting us dead on. Not the event we were hoping for yesterday. I think its going to be a matter of waiting for tomorrows charts for some encouragement.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

This was never ever going to be an event, for the south at least, because the arctic injection was simply not cold enough. You want to be seeing blues minimum not greens at 850hpa.

Get up early and enjoy the heavy wet snow - that will happen. We had an event just like this last year which was fun for an hour or so.