18z model discussion - all aboard the snowlercoaster!

[Michael Winston]

now there is a horror story, I have once many years ago, Donny is not my favourite place of those I have lived in but a shade up on your neck of the woods I have to say.

sorry off topic mods, slapped wrist.

..and yet sunny Brum doesn't get a mention?

Regards,

Mike

[Mammatus]

If everything is moving north dosnt that kill the snow option off come saturday.

Yes, apart from perhaps Scotland. Rain/drizzle and cold elsewhere I guess.

Absolute horror run for Southern England/Wales/SE and East Anglia. Norfolk may see some temporary lying snow before it melts during afternoon as 850hpa temps rise. This is only one run though, plenty of change I suspect yet to come. Come 06z - Thursday's low may be pushed further North, so most of England/Wales miss out. Who know's just yet??

Mammatus

[MKN]

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QUOTE(Paul B @ 6 Feb 2007, 10:10 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Interesting 18Z at T+96. Much of the country is still very cold, and pressure is higher to the northeast. Saturday could be another snowy day.

even scotland would have rain if the 18z is correct, good job things will be different again by tommorow

[PB22]

--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Paul B @ 6 Feb 2007, 10:10 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->Interesting 18Z at T+96. Much of the country is still very cold, and pressure is higher to the northeast. Saturday could be another snowy day.

But the -5 850s have deserted by then....

Looks far more marginal for Thursday for many too?

850's aren't the be all and end all in these types of situations.

[Harsh Climate]

It certainly looks like, the further north this feature travels, the less likelyhood of snow in the near future.

But its a price worth paying for us northerners to get snowed in late thursday....

[reef]

But the -5 850s have deserted by then....

Looks far more marginal for Thursday for many too?

Indeed, we cant really have our cake and eat it too in this case. Due to the first system being further northwards, the mild air eventually wins much quicker. This means that its very likely that the snow would eventually turn to rain everywhere south of the borders, with the second blast affecting mainly northern Scotland.

Although this run is better for initial snowfall in the North, the easterly flow afterwards is compromised and the cold spell ends 2 days prematurely.

[Yeti]

Can someone confirm that the so called 15-17 cm that we were supposed to have is completely destroyed and I will quite happily tell my mum and dad that the BBC were telling us bullsh*t.

It's only one run and the 00z will probably shift it S again anyway, just to wind everyone up!

[swfc]

Things for the long term have just been shunted to far north.Good couple of hours snow but the warm air looks like its going to push well north.Cant see where the snow for sat is coming from anyway.

[SP1986]

--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Paul B @ 6 Feb 2007, 10:10 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->Interesting 18Z at T+96. Much of the country is still very cold, and pressure is higher to the northeast. Saturday could be another snowy day.

But the -5 850s have deserted by then....

Looks far more marginal for Thursday for many too?

Quite right, on that run if it were to come true, then there would be heavy snow even in this part of northern England, quickly turning to rain! (quick as in 6 hours), I'm sure the 0z will raise people's confidence, but it's make or break now, if this breaks up as an event then that is it for central and southern areas probably, given the probability of any scenario occurring increases as the time goes down towards 0

[TEITS]

Im not sure about this run so far.

Sorry to say for those in the N but this run doesn't fit with what I have seen on the Fax charts or the GEFS ensembles. As some have said the 18Z is too progressive in moving the precip N and the sub -5C 850hpa is much further N also. If anything like I was saying to Steve the actual trend could be for the precip to be further S not N.

The whole trending S pattern is what believe will happen not just for the area of precip on thurs but for the HP to our N to ridge further S thus the LP will take a more S,ly track. The bonus of this is continuation of the cold spell rather than snow to rain and then milder.

[sweepdog]

Do you think that IF the Metoffice fax charts support the shift North then we are almost 1 run from being certain ( with ensemble support ) OR are we still outside reliable timeframe ? Not exact locations for snow but generally knowing the track of the low?

Looking at Yorks for Saturday - Am I right but are we not potentially getting potential snow from both the NE showers and a Frontal band of snow from N Wales etc etc that is pushing over the country

[MAF]

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QUOTE(Paul B @ 6 Feb 2007, 10:10 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Interesting 18Z at T+96. Much of the country is still very cold, and pressure is higher to the northeast. Saturday could be another snowy day.

but for what areas Paul

[PB22]

--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Paul B @ 6 Feb 2007, 10:10 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->Interesting 18Z at T+96. Much of the country is still very cold, and pressure is higher to the northeast. Saturday could be another snowy day.

but for what areas Paul

Too early to be too specific Mick, but I would again suggest the Midlands and Wales. I know many here are dismissing any prospect of snow for Saturday, but I wouldn't! Dismiss it at your peril!

[PersianPaladin]

Im not sure about this run so far.

Sorry to say for those in the N but this run doesn't fit with what I have seen on the Fax charts or the GEFS ensembles. As some have said the 18Z is too progressive in moving the precip N and the sub -5C 850hpa is much further N also. If anything like I was saying to Steve the actual trend could be for the precip to be further S not N.

The whole trending S pattern is what believe will happen not just for the area of precip on thurs but for the HP to our N to ridge further S thus the LP will take a more S,ly track. The bonus of this is continuation of the cold spell rather than snow to rain and then milder.

I agree.

Stick to the UKMO at this time-frame; they will have a considerably better handle on things.

[Paul]

Not such a great run for those in the south, or those hoping for something decent on Saturday, comparing to the 12z:

18z for Thursday at 15.00:

12z for the same time:

Quite a difference as you can see - everything shunted some way north..

Then onto saturday:

18z:

12z:

Cold air is all but gone by the time any precip arrives on this run..

No need to be despondant though - there will be many twists and turns with this setup and the rest of the month looks like it has some serious potential too! My gut feeling for Thursday's event is that the 12z setup will be about where we end up...But time will tell!

[SP1986]

Im not sure about this run so far.

Sorry to say for those in the N but this run doesn't fit with what I have seen on the Fax charts or the GEFS ensembles. As some have said the 18Z is too progressive in moving the precip N and the sub -5C 850hpa is much further N also. If anything like I was saying to Steve the actual trend could be for the precip to be further S not N.

The whole trending S pattern is what believe will happen not just for the area of precip on thurs but for the HP to our N to ridge further S thus the LP will take a more S,ly track. The bonus of this is continuation of the cold spell rather than snow to rain and then milder.

TEITS why are you apologising, admit it - you dont have a clue either in all honesty! . I'm too hoping that it shunts south a bit, but I'm quite aware if it goes north, and stays that way then the chances of any more prolonged chances of snow over the weekend are over. If the northern limit of the front is Manchester then it could well be good for most during the weekend.

[swfc]

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QUOTE(Paul B @ 6 Feb 2007, 10:17 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Too early to be too specific Mick, but I would again suggest the Midlands and Wales. I know many here are dismissing any prospect of snow for Saturday, but I wouldn't! Dismiss it at your peril!

Good call but are you basing that on the low running south,if so why.Thanks

[lincolnsnow07]

Don't know about this run for Lincoln. Would snow heavily for a while but would turn to rain, and would screw up the rest of the cold spell..hopefully the 00z will move it a touch further south.

[Snowly does it]

12z ensembles did give some support for a quicker shunt of the cold out of the way - 2 runs in particular were bullish, but then again several disagree so its still up in the air!

[MrAdam]

So given the precip is anticipated to be further north. Does this now mean the Midlands will not be in a direct firing line for the front to stall at? Or are things changing too much to be able to pinpoint much?

Damn models and their trickery and teasing.

[MAF]

Not such a great run for those in the south, or those hoping for something decent on Saturday, comparing to the 12z:

Cold air is all but gone by the time any precip arrives on this run..

No need to be despondant though - there will be many twists and turns with this setup and the rest of the month looks like it has some serious potential too! My gut feeling for Thursday's event is that the 12z setup will be about where we end up...But time will tell!

trouble is is tatwe are so close to an event and nothing can be given 100% assurity. so the weekend may still be a suprise for all. this is why i asked where people are setting their FI marker

[swfc]

Having looked at all charts i would still go with the fax charts. That said theres not a big support for pressure rising to the north and east so maybe gfs isnt wide of the mark.The bbc will soon let us know.

[PB22]

Good call but are you basing that on the low running south,if so why.Thanks

I still think the jetstream will pull the low further south than currently being progged. I feel that pressure to the northeast may be being under-estimated as well. Pressure heights to the northeast are still being raised in the early stages.

[January Snowstorm]

The 18z looking good for an upgrade for next week

Pbly already FI though.

Its unreal how the models can sway at even 24hours away

Just goes to show if you favour the milder option you will never be far off in forecasting

[rdt123]

trouble is is tatwe are so close to an event and nothing can be given 100% assurity. so the weekend may still be a suprise for all. this is why i asked where people are setting their FI marker

Given the ongoing changes to the pass of the low and how that effects the outlook for a more prolonged spell, together with and linked to the confusion about the building of the high around scandi, i set it at T+24, seriously!

Edited February 6, 2007 by rdt123