18z model discussion - all aboard the snowlercoaster!

[Timmytour]

There's been a few of us watching for a potential storm brewing around the 10th on the storm threads - certainly a monster at +72

Isn't the 10th the day the forum's man in the spirit world forecast a major weather event?

Quickly changing the subject, it's amazing to see that once again a forecast of snow is apparently going breasts up. Why does it so often happen and hardly ever happen the other way around?

I didn't think I'd care so much this winter. I'm working in Zurich during the week but I've only see it snow on one day so far....same as it snowy Herts .

It was a bit more and stuck around for a week mind, but now it's back to mild mush, albeit it was trying to snow this morning. I bought myself a nice new red ski jacket as well but have only had two days of feeling justified in wearing it.

From what I can make of the models the outlook for me in Zurich looks bleakly mild, but if a more northerly track is now on the cards for the UK, would this ultimately make it better for Zurich?

[TEITS]

TEITS why are you apologising, admit it - you dont have a clue either in all honesty! . I'm too hoping that it shunts south a bit, but I'm quite aware if it goes north, and stays that way then the chances of any more prolonged chances of snow over the weekend are over. If the northern limit of the front is Manchester then it could well be good for most during the weekend.

Your right mate I haven't got a clue .

You know if I was living in the North I wouldn't actually want the area of snow to reach me on Thurs because I would prefer everything to be shunted further S which would benefit me in the longer term.

The GEM & NOGAPS models are so a good example of this because ideally we want the LP systems to track into France and for the HP to our NE to ridge SW. This synoptic pattern would not only bring a continuation of the cold spell but it would also bring snowfalls via convection over the N sea. What with a combination of cold temps passing over the N Sea the stronger sun which even though is weak would aid convection compared to if this was in Dec is the perfect recipe for heavy convective snow showers.

Im sticking with the fax charts currently and only if these show a trend to move the snow N shall I start to believe it.

[swfc]

Well yet again looking towards sat"cant see snow" and beyond i think were heading towards a spell of zonal weather be it not mild.Cant see any decent pressure rise towards the north east at all.The atlantic seems to be gathering pace.

[SP1986]

Your right mate I haven't got a clue .

You know if I was living in the North I wouldn't actually want the area of snow to reach me on Thurs because I would prefer everything to be shunted further S which would benefit me in the longer term.

The GEM & NOGAPS models are so a good example of this because ideally we want the LP systems to track into France and for the HP to our NE to ridge SW. This synoptic pattern would not only bring a continuation of the cold spell but it would also bring snowfalls via convection over the N sea. What with a combination of cold temps passing over the N Sea the stronger sun which even though is weak would aid convection compared to if this was in Dec is the perfect recipe for heavy convective snow showers.

Im sticking with the fax charts currently and only if these show a trend to move the snow N shall I start to believe it.

Yep FAX charts are excellent, keep them where they are, but the unpredictable nature is really making this a bumpy ride because it is, for a change going right down to the bare wire!

[johnholmes]

Timmytour

try this site it is pretty accurate for Switzerland, as you might expect.

http://pages.unibas.ch/geo/mcr/3d/meteo/index.htm

click om meteograms then 4nmm then find z for zurich, gives next 48-72 hours at that scale. Other sales give a longer time but less info.

I use it in Wengen, and have persuaded the hotel owner to use it, it has been quite accurate for the village with temps and ppn/type etc

John

Edited February 6, 2007 by johnholmes

[disco-barry]

God keep your snow if it means the cold spell lasts longer!

[smhouston]

Your right mate I haven't got a clue .

You know if I was living in the North I wouldn't actually want the area of snow to reach me on Thurs because I would prefer everything to be shunted further S which would benefit me in the longer term.

The GEM & NOGAPS models are so a good example of this because ideally we want the LP systems to track into France and for the HP to our NE to ridge SW. This synoptic pattern would not only bring a continuation of the cold spell but it would also bring snowfalls via convection over the N sea. What with a combination of cold temps passing over the N Sea the stronger sun which even though is weak would aid convection compared to if this was in Dec is the perfect recipe for heavy convective snow showers.

Im sticking with the fax charts currently and only if these show a trend to move the snow N shall I start to believe it.

The problem with that though TEITS is that we all know it's not as simple as that. Yes, it could benefit in the long term,but it's probably more likely that it won't knowing the UK weather. So this could actually be our only chance of getting a decent snowfall this winter...

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Everything turning back to rain very quickly on this run as the low sweeps north, wheres the blocking gone? Also major bye bye time for the South...Of course the Knock on effect is that the 10th Feb event will now probably be RAIN for everyone!

It might not be rain for absolutely everyone

[WindWatcher]

I personally think the models have it pretty well sewn up. We are really just a minor island in their models. A couple of hundred miles north or south on a LP system coming in during a zonal period and we wouldn't bat an eyelid. But this is a marginal situation, and always has been! For long term synoptics the further south the better, but even the best move south would still leave me in the rain and so would the best of the other FI charts.

At this range, it is best to get your Netweather radar paid up and watch the radar and satellite images.

[TEITS]

Yep FAX charts are excellent, keep them where they are, but the unpredictable nature is really making this a bumpy ride because it is, for a change going right down to the bare wire!

In a strange way I much prefer the models to continue to disagree because I would find tracking the event on Thurs much more exciting by doing this using the Sat/radar pics.

I may even buy some bottles of pop & popcorn and stay up all tomorrow night to watch this unfold :lol: .

[swfc]

Bit of straw clutching but when are "or have " the fax charts been updated. :lol:

[Nick F]

18z UKMO Global slp charts t+36-48 keep low slightly further South than 18z GFS, not alot in it, but it's by no-means decided yet:

T+36, T+42 and T+48 18z UKMO slp:

[Surrey Snowstorm]

You know I wouldn't be surprised if the precipitation stays south of the M4 in the end :lol:

[Vince]

18z UKMO Global slp charts t+36-48 keep low further South than 18z GFS, it's by no-means decided yet:

T+36, T+42 and T+48 18z UKMO slp:

are these the very latest fax like charts Nick ?

[TEITS]

Bit of straw clutching but when are "or have " the fax charts been updated. :lol:

The Fax charts up to +72 have already been updated and we are awaiting the +96 & +120 which should be out shortly.

Oops wrong ones I thought it was Mon :lol:

Edited February 6, 2007 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[SMU]

We have a Clear divide again this eve between the GFS & the METO-

I have the updated METO 18z off the press-

Those in the North- Stick with the GFS- those in the South Stick with the UKMET-

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=036hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=036hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=042hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=042hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//ukm/2007020618//slp8.png

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//ukm/2007020618//rain8.png

Best regards

Steve

EDIT the desperate Southern Contingent from Tonbridge has beaten me to it.... :lol:

Edited February 6, 2007 by Steve Murr

[johnholmes]

try these two charts for GFS similarity

first is the 12z version

and now for soemthing a little different

this is its 18z version from today for the same day and time, that is 14 Feb 07 00z

John

special super prize from Paul for anyone that spots the major similarity. This does not include the valid for date and time!

Edited February 6, 2007 by johnholmes

[PersianPaladin]

The Fax charts up to +72 have already been updated and we are awaiting the +96 & +120 which should be out shortly.

Oops wrong ones I thought it was Mon :lol:

They look better for our prospects than the 18z....so I'm a tad relieved.

I'm not enthusastic at all about marginal frontal-snow....and that is despite the fact that I haven't even had a dusting of snow all winter.

Edited February 6, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[WindWatcher]

Quite an incredible change there John! Now where can they have got extra data from that suggests such a change...the mind boggles.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Summary for the south:

850hpa temps - too high.

ground temperature - too high (3-5C)

dew point - too high (4C)

There will be a period of heavy wet snow, dangerous driving conditions during the morning rush hour, followed by rain. There won't be any lying snow after 12pm on the higher ground.

Edited February 6, 2007 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[swfc]

The Fax charts up to +72 have already been updated and we are awaiting the +96 & +120 which should be out shortly.

Oops wrong ones I thought it was Mon :lol:

Bit confused teits, me head is spinning dude.When the updated fax charts come thro can you post them, im needing to sleep. thanks :lol:

[Glideslope]

Dont get all these models and such so I 'll be using my head... that is I'll stick it out of the window, if its white I'll crack a beer, if its not I'll go back to moving the house a bit too the left or what ever my instructions are at that precise time.. :lol: ........ :lol:

[Nick F]

T+24 Fax for 18z tomorrow is out, triple point at head of trough will surely drag some energy into N'ern France:

EDIT the desperate Southern Contingent from Tonbridge has beaten me to it.... :lol:

Lol, you just have to go for the UKMO on this one :lol:

[Surrey Snowstorm]

Can we have the 0z run now please? I won't sleep otherwise! :lol:

[SP1986]

In a strange way I much prefer the models to continue to disagree because I would find tracking the event on Thurs much more exciting by doing this using the Sat/radar pics.

I may even buy some bottles of pop & popcorn and stay up all tomorrow night to watch this unfold :lol: .

If we eat too much popcorn we may be sick, when was the last time you ate popcorn on a rollercoaster? :lol:

It is really quite astonishing though that there is no disagreement. Only 36 hours away and we have model saying scrap Thursdays band and bring in an easterly, and other saying bring the warmer moist Atlantic air in. The fact it is only one and a half days away which is remarkable!