18z model discussion - all aboard the snowlercoaster!

[Snowly does it]

Ah so perhaps it's not anomaly as some where suggesting (ie dive south), It seems from that There will be rain across south Midlands, southern counties on Thursday (apart from say a few hours of heavy snow before it turns), then about tea time snow turning to rain across lowland north Wales, and part of southern Northwest England, Derbyshire, and Lincolnshire etc. North of say Manchester looks like hanging onto any snow that there might be. But of course it will change - were talking 10-20 miles difference which isnt alot in terms of weather systems to be honest!

Thats dependant on the GFS not missing the Height rises for example though? If it undereggs that would it not bring 'up' the ensembles in general?

Given the differences in short order, someone has something wrong here..?

[robert]

Well I haven't a clue what is going to happen, I don't think I have ever seen so much

disagreement and confusion.

It's looking like we won't actually know until the day arrives.

I don't know whether to stay up for the 00z now.

could be interesting.

Things will workout. Plenty of time for upgrades before Thursday...and then there is always Saturday :lol:

Robert

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Hmmmm,big DOWNGRADE tonight,esp for those south of Birmingham,FAX going with GFS for saturday(and ECM).

[snowray]

If I'm perfectly honest I'm starting to doubd even the UKMO fax charts now..Wasn't it just yeasterday that they were showing snow for southern countys tonight, as usual that little low thats tracking east into Northern France was a few hundred miles out(typical chanel low I can hear you all saying). Was it not the UKMO yesterday morning that had sundays low heading eastwards into the chanel and northern blocking firming up, another few hundred miles adrift then looking at tonights FAX charts. As for the GFS, well they have given us just about every scenario imaginable in the last 24hrs, so what about the other models, ie GEM and NOGAPS, what are they playing at with under 48hrs to go, is any one going to come into line? Its utter madness!

Come back WEST....All is forgiven! :lol:

[grab my graupel]

Things will workout. Plenty of time for upgrades before Thursday...and then there is always Saturday

Robert

I do hope you are right Robert as Saturday isn't looking as good now.

So we are to expect the 00z to be an upgrade.

By the way has anyone seen the Daily Express Headline.

7 inches of Snow to hit Britain!

Edited February 6, 2007 by grab my graupels

[J10]

Perhaps the decision to go with the 2 outcomes on the Close Up has been justified.

The UKMO/FAX has been the most consistent in this, but are they correct, time will tell.

[mr snowman]

In a strange way I much prefer the models to continue to disagree because I would find tracking the event on Thurs much more exciting by doing this using the Sat/radar pics.

I may even buy some bottles of pop & popcorn and stay up all tomorrow night to watch this unfold .

Now that does sound like a good idea

[WindWatcher]

Snowray, To some extent I hope you are right. If it is a swift return to Zonality and no settling snow south of the Pennines at 9am tomorrow or Thurs (yes WIB did clarify his forecast to mean that in accordance with the meto definition ) then I can just ignore any further model watching and get back to a normal life. Until the GW heatwave strikes and I can chase the summer thunder storms.

However, I'm with a little jog further south and back to the 06z/meto forecast with the snowline being north of the M4.

But if anyone can predict it at this stage just using the model outputs tonight... good luck!

[West is Best]

I think Saturday will end up being THE event to be honest, especially here

Just back from a day in my new job.

I'm a bit baffled to be honest. The upper temps on Saturday are far too high for snow surely? Even Thursday still looks distinctly marginal to me. Some front edge snow I guess, but looks to turn to rain on the charts I've just checked out. Perhaps I haven't looked at them closely enough.

Down here in Exeter we've had a bit of light rain this afternoon. Temp now 4.3C. This isn't exactly earth-shattering conditions for snow to my eye.

I do rather wonder if contrary to the odd comment, this will actually be the final proof some people needed about how modern winters have now become, and just what a struggle we face to get serious snowfall south of the Scottish mountains these days.

[SMU]

tonights output at t48 is something like this-

18 z GFS

UKMO 18Z-

S

Edited February 6, 2007 by Steve Murr

[MAF]

so the ukmo 18z is what we want here then steve.

Edited February 6, 2007 by Mick

[SMU]

so the ukmo 18z is what we want here then steve.

yes mick- A more Southerly track-

S

Edited February 6, 2007 by Steve Murr

[snowray]

Snowray, To some extent I hope you are right. If it is a swift return to Zonality and no settling snow south of the Pennines at 9am tomorrow or Thurs (yes WIB did clarify his forecast to mean that in accordance with the meto definition ) then I can just ignore any further model watching and get back to a normal life. Until the GW heatwave strikes and I can chase the summer thunder storms.

However, I'm with a little jog further south and back to the 06z/meto forecast with the snowline being north of the M4.

But if anyone can predict it at this stage just using the model outputs tonight... good luck!

Hi WW, I'm not saying that there wont be any settling snow South of the pennines, there already is some around now. Its just that the models have been soo bad, ALL OF THEM that I cant help but feel that a more realistic view of things is required in the FORUM. 99% of us are ramping snow and many of the comments re everything will shift further south are coming from people in the south, so its very biased to say the least. And I dont particularly care if things are looking rosey for later in February or March, and people in the North should not want this snow because its bad for cold prospects (true of course ), who's telling them that, mainly people in the South of course!

I think we should just take what we can get, we should consider ourselves privilaged that we are getting anything at all if we consider how bad things have been this winter and time is running out fast!

Edited February 6, 2007 by snowray

[Stuka]

tonights output at t48 is something like this-

and the winner is........

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well on closer inspection at 18z we do see the stubborness of a decent Scandy high in the face of an atlantic onslaught.That said,we could be on the cusp of something amazing.

[crimsone]

Well, it would be nice to see some snow in these parts - so far we've had nothing. We got very little last year either in my own location.

I'm not holding my breath though (which is probably just as well considering it's supposed to be more than 24 hours away)

Edited February 6, 2007 by crimsone

[Timmytour]

Timmytour

try this site it is pretty accurate for Switzerland, as you might expect.

http://pages.unibas.ch/geo/mcr/3d/meteo/index.htm

click om meteograms then 4nmm then find z for zurich, gives next 48-72 hours at that scale. Other sales give a longer time but less info.

I use it in Wengen, and have persuaded the hotel owner to use it, it has been quite accurate for the village with temps and ppn/type etc

John

Many thanks John...it's gone straight into my favourites

[SnowJoke]

I'm still sticking with the UKMO charts. The 18z GFS is notoriuos for overdoing things when it comes to the breakdown of cold spells. I'd be inclined to watch the 00z and then the 06z GFS to see if they still differ from the 18z output.

I'm still going for the snow line to be: north wales, down through the midlands and onto the suffolk / essex border. Thats where i feel the most snow will fall and be lying. The MET must have a pretty good idea aswell as the BBC were mentioning heavy falls and disruption to the traffic system on thursday for the areas i just mentioned.

[Supacell]

tonights output at t48 is something like this-

18 z GFS

UKMO 18Z-

S

Well both of them put me just in the snow zone.

[WindWatcher]

Hi WW, I'm not saying that there wont be any settling snow South of the pennines, there already is some around now. Its just that the models have been soo bad, ALL OF THEM that I cant help but feel that a more realistic view of things is required in the FORUM. 99% of us are ramping snow and many of the comments re everything will shift further south are coming from people in the south, so its very biased to say the least. And I dont particularly care if things are looking rosey for later in February or March, and people in the North should not want this snow because its bad for cold prospects (true of course ), who's telling them that, mainly people in the South of course!

I think we should just take what we can get, we should consider ourselves privilaged that we are getting anything at all if we consider how bad things have been this winter and time is running out fast!

Sorry I was referring to your mention of WIB's predictions. Anyway, given the current pressure readings, I think the low curently south of the uk tonight is heading further south tonight into France, the snow showers are heading more into the North East and then into the Norwich area. This can IMO only mean that we will see the models correct the other way again in the morning and bring it all further south.

Whatever happens I am only likely to see wet snow for a while before it turns to rain, so hardly any point in me ramping.

Good night all, see you in the reliable time frame???

[mr snowman]

tonights output at t48 is something like this-

18 z GFS

UKMO 18Z-

S

I prefer the UKMO 18z (for me and also prolonging the cold spell)

[watcheroftheskies]

Evening all

Just delurking for a quick `twopenneth worth`.

Re the ongoing lack of detail regarding nailing this wintry period of upcoming weather, the METO have updated their weather warning at 23.01 tonight to cover the whole of england for a `period of heavy snow` on Thursday morning Meto. Talk about covering their a***s!

I honestly don`t think the meto boys have a much better handle on how this is all going to pan out, than the experienced posters on here!! Just hope the the cold block is a bit stronger than is being progged tonight.

Some excellent reading and learning to be had on this forum, keep it up!

WOTS

[mr snowman]

Hi WW, I'm not saying that there wont be any settling snow South of the pennines, there already is some around now. Its just that the models have been soo bad, ALL OF THEM that I cant help but feel that a more realistic view of things is required in the FORUM. 99% of us are ramping snow and many of the comments re everything will shift further south are coming from people in the south, so its very biased to say the least. And I dont particularly care if things are looking rosey for later in February or March, and people in the North should not want this snow because its bad for cold prospects (true of course ), who's telling them that, mainly people in the South of course!

I think we should just take what we can get, we should consider ourselves privilaged that we are getting anything at all if we consider how bad things have been this winter and time is running out fast!

I know we should take what we can get but i dont want to see snow for a couple of hours only for it to be melted away shortly after.

But then again i would enjoy the couple of hours of snow so you are probably right

Edited February 7, 2007 by mr snowman

[grab my graupel]

Well on closer inspection at 18z we do see the stubborness of a decent Scandy high in the face of an atlantic onslaught.That said,we could be on the cusp of something amazing.

After closer inspection myself I have to say I feel that the 18z is under doing the

block and the 00z GFS is likely to be an upgrade in that we will see the fronts on more of a Southerly Track again and better height rises to the North East.

I think what John mentioned earlier that you often see different positioning of the lows

on each run before the final outcome is a valid point, and I'm sure we will see the board

back in Ramp mode in the morning.

I don't buy this 18z run at all , and expect more upgrades.

Brian.

Edited February 7, 2007 by grab my graupels

[yamkin]

Just back from a day in my new job.

I'm a bit baffled to be honest. The upper temps on Saturday are far too high for snow surely? Even Thursday still looks distinctly marginal to me. Some front edge snow I guess, but looks to turn to rain on the charts I've just checked out. Perhaps I haven't looked at them closely enough.

Down here in Exeter we've had a bit of light rain this afternoon. Temp now 4.3C. This isn't exactly earth-shattering conditions for snow to my eye.

I do rather wonder if contrary to the odd comment, this will actually be the final proof some people needed about how modern winters have now become, and just what a struggle we face to get serious snowfall south of the Scottish mountains these days.

I'm expecting model upgrades. Temps on Saturday will fall. As for Thursday, heavy snow for S/SE to begin with, then Northwards it goes. Surprised your temps in Exeter was 4.3C @ 23:39 hrs! Air temps in Croydon is currently -1C!

I would like you to confirm when the so called even larger teapot started in the UK. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, my Grandad who was born in 1901 kept records on weather patterns and I can tell you right now that you would then have to class some of the good old days as modern winters too!