18z model discussion - all aboard the snowlercoaster!

[wellington boot]

This was never ever going to be an event, for the south at least, because the arctic injection was simply not cold enough. You want to be seeing blues minimum not greens at 850hpa.

Get up early and enjoy the heavy wet snow - that will happen. We had an event just like this last year which was fun for an hour or so.

hang on amigo, at one point not so long ago, the -5s were at least 500 miles further south come saturdays event, and the lp tracked much further south, and it looked like it could be very rewarding. It wasnt always going to be a non event

[grab my graupel]

Can't believe we have waited up for this.

Dosen't look very promising, I'll bet there are some dissapointed people

later on when they see the low tracking further North.

I must admit I didn't expect to see this.

Not good

Edited February 7, 2007 by grab my graupels

[mackerel sky]

Have to admit the GFS has been sneakily downgrading for the past 24-36 hours, inclusive of the 00z or so after upgrading to make ground on the FAX charts, such that potentially (for the Midlands at least) not only was Thursday looking excellent, we still had the prospect of snow right through to Saturday. Now Thursdays snow is looking a lot more transient (that being maybes a 3-6 hour period of snow, followed by sleet and drizzle, and a gradual thaw). Unfortunately the FAX charts have backed off a little too.

If this is the outcome, it does (again, I think) prove that looking across as many models as possible is the best thing to do, and averaging them, rather than let one create bias.

Unfortunately now we are less than 24 hours away, and its around about this time of night tomorrow I potentially expect to start seeing something and Nowcasting goes into overdrive.

Looking at the 850s for the East Midlands, if there is something to hold onto, its still into Saturday before the bulk of the region sees 850s above -4C, although its getting a bit iffy (from now on I use "iffy" rather than marginal). Peak District should do alright for a more prolonged spell of snow I suspect.

Edited February 7, 2007 by mackerel sky

[pottyprof]

I don't believe it until it happens.. even the ensembles have cut back on reliability over the last few days..

I seriously think that this is one confused model run..

[mackerel sky]

I don't believe it until it happens.. even the ensembles have cut back on reliability over the last few days..

I seriously think that this is one confused model run..

Mind you, I'm quite happy with the ensemble mean hovering around -3C all month as theres lots of scope. I particularly dislike temperature inversions, as they are pointless and only waste precious time, but can lead Joe Public into thinking the weather is cold. I don't think we'll be having much of that nonsense.

[grab my graupel]

Looks like Roberts prediction for the 10th of Feb has Gone out of the Window.

[PersianPaladin]

Looks like Roberts prediction for the 10th of Feb has Gone out of the Window.

Brian...I think if anyone deserves a good dumping of snow...it is you. You've remained positive more than anyone else this winter; so its about time you were rewarded.

[pottyprof]

Looks like Roberts prediction for the 10th of Feb has Gone out of the Window.

Looks like gfs is on one.. time to go back to paper and hope JH can throw some light on things..

[pottyprof]

Lets just stick to models on here..

general is here.. http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36265

[grab my graupel]

Brian...I think if anyone deserves a good dumping of snow...it is you. You've remained positive more than anyone else this winter; so its about time you were rewarded.

Thanks P.P.

Well I have been looking for something positive to say,

but I can't find anything tonight, the prospects further along the line don't

look good either. Even the blocking to the North east is weakening run by run.

It looks like we might have to dig some tempting charts out from the ensembles, or

Nogaps or GEM might cheer us up with some eye Candy.

I think it's been a really depressing evening, to say that I haven't had a single Snowflake

tonight either.

[wellington boot]

right im off to bed, i have to be up early to write an essay and do some reading.

[grab my graupel]

right im off to bed, i have to be up early to write an essay and do some reading.

Yep I'm off to bed too. Night all.

Night Potty.

[pottyprof]

Yep I'm off to bed too. Night all.

Night Potty.

G'night Brian.. Take it easy mate.. no sledging tomorrow..

[mackerel sky]

Right i'm off too. No doubt i'll stop in sometime around 10.30am for the 06z and any other updates.

Night all...

[pottyprof]

G'night MS.. rest up chap

[Yeti]

Sorry to be a pain but I like the 00z because Thursday is still on here and the low is far enough N. The thing is, I won't be in the country after Saturday, and so I want Thursday to happen here - otherwise I may miss the only snow event of Winter!

Selfish I know

[disco-barry]

NOooooooo take the low south, south i tell you i can bloody wait i do not want RAIN on saturday.

Come on take it back.

[Yeti]

NOooooooo take the low south, south i tell you i can bloody wait i do not want RAIN on saturday.

Come on take it back.

Oops sorry... we're driving to Hull on Saturday do not want a choking motorway...

To be honest, surely it's still unlikely that the low will go this far N. Keep looking at the FAX charts now, interesting to see where the Meto are going. In the past, these features rarely went that far N.

[snowmadchrisuk]

slightly better prospects for thursday from the 00z, and as for saturday we have to remember that gfs had got rid of the prospects of thursdays events 36 hours ago and there is 66 hours left lat least untill saturday. metcheck are still going for snow turning to sleet after for saturday in leicestershire and that is taken from the 00z run so still all to play for.

Chris

[Snow storm]

The UKMO has the 528 DAM line way further South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1.gif

Very much snowfall until the centre of the low hits south UK, where the air will be slightly milder, although there will be contenential air around it.

[Yeti]

The UKMO has the 528 DAM line way further South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1.gif

Very much snowfall until the centre of the low hits south UK, where the air will be slightly milder, although there will be contenential air around it.

Yes of course, you're right in saying that most places will see frontal edge snow.

Amazingly the 00z wants to move the extent of the snow-all-day fromt the M4 to nearly the M62 - where the snow was forecast to be at its Northern most extent recently

[Snow storm]

Yes of course, you're right in saying that most places will see frontal edge snow.

Amazingly the 00z wants to move the extent of the snow-all-day fromt the M4 to nearly the M62 - where the snow was forecast to be at its Northern most extent recently

The 0Z GFS is quite bad, the METO aern't listening to it. Which IMO is a good sign.

In actuall fact, the BBC has snow not even turning to rain for the most.

[Snowly does it]

GFS retains the theme of the 18z, however thngs remain marginal on it - the -5 air is pushed up towards the Humber but the ppn is quicker in. Could be a snow to rain event for the South according to the GFS but perhaps the overnight aspect of things might keep it on the right side of marginal for longer?

UKMO a better prospect for the original prognosis which seems to be supported by the media forecasts.

An exciting day and night ahead, shame I have to go to work later!

[Matty M]

Well i have my french exam this morning which i am going to fail miserably but meh!

Then im free from 1pm to track this snow on its journey north....... going to be a longgggggg nite.. will probly have to catch a nap for a few hours during the PM

[willitbsunny]

Good Morning!!

Whats the latest? Did the charts come up with the goods overnight? Are we still looking as though we'll have a snow event here in South Wales?

Will it turn to rain on the back edge or is there a chance that the conditions will be right to completely pass us as snow and leave it dry afterwards for us to actually enjoy it!