18z model discussion - all aboard the snowlercoaster!

[Paul]

Please continue discussion on the latest model runs here - please stay on topic. General cold spell discussion is available in this thread:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36157

In depth/techie model discussion is here:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=34546

The latest GFS models can be seen here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

And the ensembles here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

Plus all the other major models and other features in the datacentre (free):

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=home

[Mammatus]

Very few changes at T+0

Mammatus

Edited February 6, 2007 by Mammatus

[Bobby]

Let's all hope The Great Blizzard of '07 is still on track.

[wellington boot]

Let's all hope The Great Blizzard of '07 is still on track.

Indeed, i think a moment's silence to bow our heads is in order

[Matty M]

Our my dreams of snow disappearing before my very eyes?

-5c 850hpa line about 80 miles further east..

[smich]

Evening folks!

Lots to look out for tonight:

1: The imminent frontal event (for whoever benefits!)

2: The Second Salvo on Saturday - if upgraded further, could be a major event?

3: The longer term outlook - height rises upgraded to our NE , spreading west over Greenland.

4: And that's just by T144!!!!!!!!!

Terrific times for model watching....

smich

Edited February 6, 2007 by smich

[The Eagle]

Our my dreams of snow disappearing before my very eyes?

-5c 850hpa line about 80 miles further east..

Its practically the same as the 12z - no real difference.

[Matty M]

Well the 18z is not shy in shifting the precip northwards..

[Bartlett Low]

I think Saturday will end up being THE event to be honest, especially here

[smich]

Our my dreams of snow disappearing before my very eyes?

-5c 850hpa line about 80 miles further east..

80 miles??? On one run? At T42???

Get a grip, man! STILL plenty of room for manouvre even at this close range!

smich

[Harsh Climate]

Bring the precipitation further north! thats what I say!

[stratty]

Well the 18z is not shy in shifting the precip northwards..

yes and the lp is a bit more fierce to the west of ireland

[sweepdog]

definitely gone northwards by a good few miles - sheffield was my tip for the worst weather and I see no reason to change now.

[kippure]

yes and the lp is a bit more fierce to the west of ireland

Oh Blizzards for a short time.

[Matty M]

I still don't understand something here.. The UKM is debating will it go far enough to reach NI while the GFS sends the precip through into southern Scotland... im miffed.. were still none the wiser

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I think this run is going to come in line with ECM unfortunately,LP track not as good as 12z.

[Nick F]

18z looks too progressive and mobile in shifting the sub -5C 850s and precipitation North on Thursday IMO, though not out of the question. I would expect the frontal system to stall over Wales/Midlands/E Anglia and go no further North.

[NorthYorksWeather]

whas gwanin people, ive got a feeling this run is guna be a proper badboy, if only the whole uk could get the same amount of snow then everyone on here would be happy

[MAF]

so come on folks, where is FI sitting, if the last 24 hours is anyhting to go by then it is still a few models before saturdays event is certain. any thoughts?

[Slinky]

definitely gone northwards by a good few miles - sheffield was my tip for the worst weather and I see no reason to change now.

yes and it will probably shift right back on the 0z run and so on. We wont really know till its time to start radar watching

[Yeti]

YESSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

IT'S BEEN PROGGED FURTHER NORTH

Sorry about the caps there... But you have to understand how I feel about this! I thought a S'ly track was nailed on but obviously still 'up in the air' potentially..

Less fizzling out and precip coming well into central N'ern England.

Ramp over

Wait I'm being stupid! spur of the moment excitement there!

[The Eagle]

It does look more progressive but its only one run though cant be ruled out.

[Harsh Climate]

Rather than haveing all the precipitation in wales/midlands, the north of ireland/irish sea is suppost to get a lot now... shawly comeing straight of the sea it would maintain itself and push into west yorkshire!

Only 1 run, but heading in the right direction!

Edited February 6, 2007 by Jed Bickerdike

[Matty M]

Ah no the run aint as bad as i first thought.. it got really progressive with the -5c line at T+30 but it stalled around Dublin to give us Heavy snow and hopefully it will stay as snow through afternoon although likely to go back to sleet.. A hard frost though to follow on the snow or what remains of it.

[SP1986]

snow chances pushed further north still, even lowland North Wales looks like seeing rain later on Thursday on this run.