Virtual storm chase

[Paul Sherman]

Stewart, Last years "Death Ridge" Omega Block, did not know most of what you posted about wind direction etc, but Omega is usually denoted with looking at the Conus of the USA & Seeing a certain set-up. Eg

Pacific West Coast = Low Pressure

Rockies = High Pressure

East Coast = Low pressure

Take a look at May 2006 Here >

Shows how the "Omega" is blocking out the Storm Systems and keeping them out west.

Paul Sherman

[pottyprof]

Basically the SLP charts look like an omega symbol AudMun.. Stubborn to move patterns they are.... Hence the "Death Ridge" The killer of storms that you are looking for..

Paul.. Quick question.. What was last year's chase theme music wise??

[Paul Sherman]

Probably Chris Rea's "Road to Hell" when in Mississippi

Or

Is This the Way to Amarillo when blasting west on I40 At The Big Texan.

I forgot to take my Cd's last year, but this year we will have some serious dance tunes when dissappearing into a Supercell, Faithless will be played full blast no doubt, Matt was playing War of the Worlds last year which was quite good.

Paul S

Why ???

[AudMun]

Basically the SLP charts look like an omega symbol AudMun.. Stubborn to move patterns they are.... Hence the "Death Ridge" The killer of storms that you are looking for..

Paul.. Quick question.. What was last year's chase theme music wise??

Is it usually the case that an Omega pattern like this would be moved only by a substantial cooler weather system coming from, for instance, the SE or does the Omega system itself act like a bumber and prevent any other low pressure entering the area and will only disappear or move as it degrades with time?

Stewart

[pottyprof]

AudMun.. Try this mate.. http://www.tornadochaser.net/tornado.html

Cheers Paul.. I've found a few more clips from last year.. I'll see where te music takes me..

Is it usually the case that an Omega pattern like this would be moved only by a substantial cooler weather system coming from, for instance, the SE or does the Omega system itself act like a bumber and prevent any other low pressure entering the area and will only disappear or move as it degrades with time?

Stewart

The last bit is correct.. A bit like an Azores high covering the Atlantic..

[Paul Sherman]

Is it usually the case that an Omega pattern like this would be moved only by a substantial cooler weather system coming from, for instance, the SE or does the Omega system itself act like a bumber and prevent any other low pressure entering the area and will only disappear or move as it degrades with time?

Stewart

Usually the High gets de-amplified over time from attacks from the Pacific West Coast and the Ridge flattens, these High pressures are Monsters though and can take time to shift, last year we found North West flow during our first 7 days of chasing, much like our Toppler Highs in this country, systems coming around the top of the High and moving South Eastwards, so luckily as it was May and that bit later in the year temps were good enough to produce Storms on a daily basis, wheras over the next 7-10 days in the States it will be decidedly Chilly, with some Winter precip possible. This is a bad set-up as rich gulf moisture cannot return Northwards on South-Easterly winds. Did you notice how the system yesterday was moving south-west and west to east and actually exited over southern Georgia and Florida, the Cold front has pushed all the moisture way into the GOM.

- See Cold Front and Ridging between low pressures. Typical Omega setting up

Paul S

Edit: A perfect weather pattern would be 2-3 days of Moisture Return with a Low pressure advancing from the West coast, South Westerly upper winds and South Easterly surface winds, High Dp's and a dryline setting up in West Texas, perfect conditions as the low encroaches eastwards. The best patterns usually keep re-setting over 2-4 day periods

[pottyprof]

*Plasters for Mr Sherman*

I have a certain amount of confidence that things will be mobile when the team gets over there..

[WhiteFox]

over the next 7-10 days in the States it will be decidedly Chilly, with some Winter precip possible.

It's decidedly chilly here in New York right now! A 10oC drop since yesterday and it feels raw. This looks locked in for about a week so by the time you get over the Midwest it should be a bit more mobile...

[NL]

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 12 - 18 2007:

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS ON THE MEAN 500-HPA

CIRCULATION PATTERN IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG

INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS... WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATING A VERY BROAD TROUGH

OVER THE CONUS EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE

CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 06Z GFS HIGH RESOLUTION RUN PERSIST AN UPPER

LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS... AND THIS POSSIBILITY ELEVATES THE CHANCES

OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURE

ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE UNCERTAIN WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST

LIKELY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CONUS. THE CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN

PRECIPITATION IS ELEVATED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES

DUE TO AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENHANCED WESTERLIES PREDICTED

OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. ELSEWHERE THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG

TOOLS FOR THE 8 TO 14 PRECIPITATION AMOUNT INDICATING THAT PRECIPITATION

ANOMALIES WILL MOSTLY DEPEND ON SHORT WAVES NOT PREDICTABLE AT THESE TIME

RANGES. WITH THE STORM TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH... ALASKAN PRECIPITATION IS

EXPECTED TO BE BELOW MEDIAN EXCEPT FOR THE PANHANDLE WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW

AT 500-HPA MAY BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR NEAR NORMAL AMOUNTS.

Looking very quiet up until around the 15th, with some states

still below average precipiation.

8 to 14 day Outlook Table

OUTLOOK FOR APR 12 - 18, 2007

STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN

WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N A

SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B A NEVADA N N

W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N N

UTAH N N ARIZONA A B COLORADO N B

NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A

NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N B

N TEXAS N B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B

MINNESOTA B A IOWA B N MISSOURI N N

ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B A

ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B N

INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N

TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B N

VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B

MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N

PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N

MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N

N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA N A

FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B

AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B

AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N

LEGEND

TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN

A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN

B - BELOW B - BELOW

The next forecast is out on the 19/April.

[NL]

Tornado warning out for south west Nebraska....

Statement as of 5:42 PM MDT on April 02, 2007

The National Weather Service in North Platte has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...

Keith County in southwest Nebraska...

this includes the city of Ogallala...

* until 615 PM MDT

* at 541 PM MDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a

severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Lemoyne...

or about 11 miles northwest of Ogallala... moving east at 40 mph.

* The tornado will be near...

9 miles north of Ogallala by 550 PM MDT...

Keystone and 7 miles north of Roscoe by 555 PM MDT...

Sarben and Paxton by 610 PM MDT...

A photo of the above storm.

[Paul Sherman]

As expected Winter Precip now over most parts of the Mid West. Ukww Chase Team 1 going Snow Chasing Today Snow has fallen in Tulsa, Oklahoma and other parts of Texas as well. Temps about 28f last night and some parts expecting 39f today. Early April is a very chancy time to go out on a Storm Chase, next weekend is expected to have Severe Thunderstorms and Temps back into the 70's and 80's though.

Paul S

[Paul Sherman]

FRIDAY The 13th

I'd expect the SPC To start ramping this mid next week, this looks like it could possibly be quite a Strong system, and if things fall into place we could see another Tornado Outbreak.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0506 AM CDT SAT APR 07 2007

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...ORGANIZED SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS E TX INTO THE DEEP S

AND SERN STATES FROM TUE 10 APR THROUGH WED 11 APR...

...ORGANIZED SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE

CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BEGINNING FRI 13 APR THEN SPREADING EWD INTO THE

MID-SOUTH BY SAT 14 APR...

...DISCUSSION...

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR THE UPCOMING WORK

WEEK AS AN AMPLIFIED FLOW REMAINS TRANSITORY. ECMWF/GFS/MREF AGREE

THAT THE WAVE MOVING INTO THE WRN GULF STATES ON MONDAY WILL MINOR

OUT AND EJECT NEWD BY TUE. STRONGER SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS EARLY WEEK

WILL SWING EWD THEN NWD...BECOMING ABSORBED BY WWD EXTENSION OF THE

POLAR VORTEX MID-NEXT WEEK. MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE...WHICH WILL

LARGELY BE ABSENT WITH LEAD SYSTEMS...WILL PROBABLY ADVECT NWD

IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. WHILE NOT QUALITY MOISTURE...MAGNITUDE

OF MID-LEVEL FLOW AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY GIVE RISE TO A

FEW SVR TSTMS ALONG THE ASSOCD SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT FROM E TX INTO

THE DEEP S AND SERN STATES TUE-WED /DAY 4-5/.

OTHERWISE...ECMWF/GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BRINGING A STRONGER

SYSTEM EWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY FRI 13TH. WAVELENGTH

BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WHOSE FRONTAL SURGE SHOULD SCOUR THE

GULF...AND THIS SYSTEM IS NOT OPTIMAL. BUT...MODELS HAVE BEEN

CONSISTENT IN THE ROBUST STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH AND SITUATION WILL

LIKELY GIVE RISE TO AN ORGANIZED SVR EVENT ACROSS ERN PARTS OF THE

CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID-SOUTH BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE

WEEKEND.

Paul Sherman

[Nick F]

Thursday and particularly Friday are showing a strong possibility of severe storms over the Sern Plains of the Mid-West. A long-wave trough of low heights and upper cold pooling looks to move East over the Rockies on Thursday, while a surface low driting East over New Mexico and over N Texas sucks up warm moist air from the GoM, Jet stream directly above TX and OK is likely to provide strong speed shear for supercell development, movement of sfc low likely to create LL wind shear and helicity at surface for possible tornadoes - particularly along dry line likely moving East...

Friday 00z (Thurs evening in US)

SPc have a SLGT risk of severe storms for Nern TX and Wern OK on their 3 day outlook for Thurs 12z to Fri 12z:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Friday looks even better, and IMO the models suggest a possible large event of severe storms with a tornado outbreak across the Sern plains as the upper trough and cold pool collocates with surface low as they both drift East over OK and KS, a marked dry line with surge North of warm moist air ahead of it - combined with very strong speed shear aloft from a strong 120kt jet streak providing ideal conditions for supercells and tornado formation over Nern TX, OK and KS ...

Saturday 00z (Fri evening in US):

Worth keeping an eye, shame the guys in Chase Team 1 are leaving for home tomorrow

[pottyprof]

Looks like things have come through a bit earlier that thought Nick..

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 124

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

140 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA

EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL

800 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF

HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MERIDIAN

MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS

WW THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO NWRN

AL/CENTRAL MS. THIS WILL ALLOW EXPANDING AREA OF MARGINAL TO

MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION INTO THE EVENING.

LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE STRONG. THIS WILL

INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINE SEGMENTS.

ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO

OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.

...EVANS

Tomorrow still looks like a slight chance for Texas.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1229 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH

PLAINS...

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...

NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DIG SEWD INTO AZ

DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIGGING FURTHER INTO SRN NM/NRN

MEXICO BY 13/12Z. THIS INTENSIFYING TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE A

MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BEFORE KICKING NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS

ON FRIDAY.

IN RESPONSE TO THIS APPROACHING FEATURE...PRESSURES WILL FALL IN THE

LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES WHICH WILL ALLOW MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER

MOISTURE TO RETURN NWWD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE TX

SOUTH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD CERTAINLY

APPROACH THE LOWER 50S TO THE EAST OF THE DEVELOPING DRY LINE WHICH

WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR FREE PARCEL ASCENT AS LAPSE

RATES STEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS

CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS FAR WEST TX NEAR

THE NM BORDER...TO THE SOUTH OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT. THIS

ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE

EVENING HOURS AS LLJ INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 50 KT INTO THIS

ACTIVITY. WITH TIME...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL

DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK AS LLJ IMPINGES ON WARM

FRONT. THIS WILL CERTAINLY AID ELEVATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS

THIS REGION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED IN NATURE EARLY

IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE...AND LIKELY SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN THE STRONG

VERTICAL SHEAR. WITH TIME...AN UPWARD EVOLVING CLUSTER OF

THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS ACTIVITY

SPREADS NEWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK. LARGE HAIL

SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS INITIAL MOISTURE RETURN INTO

THIS REGION WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO ONGOING MODIFICATION.

..DARROW.. 04/11/2007

[NL]

Not only tornado watches but also tornado warnings..

Tornadoes spotted..

Severe Weather Statement

National Weather Service Birmingham Al

302 Pm Cdt Wed Apr 11 2007

Alc047-065-091-105-112045-

/o.con.kbmx.to.w.0095.000000t0000z-070411t2045z/

Marengo Al-dallas Al-perry Al-hale Al-

302 Pm Cdt Wed Apr 11 2007

...a Tornado Warning Remains In Effect Until 345 Pm Cdt For South

Central Hale...southern Perry...northern Dallas And Northeastern

Marengo Counties...

At 300 Pm Cdt...national Weather Service Doppler Radar Continued To

Indicate A Tornado. In Addition...golfball Size Hail Has Been

Reported With This Storm. This Tornado Was Located Near

Faunsdale...or About 16 Miles South Of Greensboro...moving East At

45 Mph.

[NL]

4 1/2 inch hail..

Thanks to Alabana storm tracker Matt Grantham for this picture.

Yesterdays storms across Alabama/Indiana produced 7 (latest count) Tornadoes

and incredible hailstorms..!!

[pottyprof]

Unbelievable NL.. You don't need any of those things hitting anybody. Or anything for that matter..

[Nick F]

Yes, a SLGT risk area today over the Panhandle in the evening over in the high Sern plains, risk mostly for hail and damaging gusts, with any supercells forming along/ahead of dryline expected to be high based.

Tomorrow shows a greater risk of severe weather with a good chance of tornadoes, SPC has a MDT risk over NE TX/SE OK/N LA/S AR and a SLGT risk over Eastern TX, Sern OK and AR, Louisiana and Mississipi:

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1223 PM CDT THU APR 12 2007

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NE AND ECNTRL

TX...FAR SE OK...SRN AR AND NRN LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN

PLAINS...ARKLATX REGION AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...ARKLATX/LOWER MS VALLEY...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SWRN STATES WITH AN UPPER-LOW LOCATED

OVER CNTRL CA AND WRN NV. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD

INTO AZ TONIGHT AND MOVE QUICKLY EWD INTO WEST TX FRIDAY. A

LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING WARM MOIST

AIR INTO EAST TX AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MOST

OF EAST TX BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY SHOULD

EXIST SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM NEAR

DALLAS/FORT WORTH EXTENDING EWD ACROSS FAR SRN AR. THUNDERSTORMS

SHOULD BE ONGOING IN NORTHWEST AND NCNTRL TX DURING THE MORNING

ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD

AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS NE TX AND SRN OK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE

GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT

EXTENDING NWD FOR 100 MILES OR SO. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO

EXPAND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A LARGE MCS MOVING EWD ACROSS

AR/LA INTO WRN MS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM

DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR SWD ACROSS FAR EAST TX AS THE CAPPING

INVERSION WEAKENS OVERNIGHT.

THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT

DEVELOP IN A FAIRLY NARROW ZONE NEAR THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON

AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM

FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR PROFILES WITH

0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60 KT SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY

UPON THUNDERSTORM INITIATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...0-1 KM

SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KT AND SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL TURNING

BELOW 850 MB SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ESPECIALLY WITH

SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE TORNADO

THREAT MAY BECOME ENHANCED WITH RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK

EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP APPEARS SOMEWHAT

SIMILAR TO THE MARCH 28, 2000 FORT WORTH TX TORNADO EVENT ONLY THIS

SYSTEM AND THE WIND FIELDS FRIDAY WILL BE STRONGER. ALSO...THE MID

TO UPPER-LEVEL JET IS MORE CYCLONICALLY CURVED AND THE GREATEST

TORNADO THREAT AREA MAY BE SHIFTED SEWD COMPARED TO MARCH 28, 2000.

A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NE TX AND NW LA WITH

LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE

WILL ALSO LIKELY ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON

AND EVENING. ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH SUPERCELLS

ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN NCNTRL TX DUE TO

STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THERE. HOW FAR SOUTH THE SEVERE THREAT

WILL EXIST STILL REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE STRENGTH OF THE

CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY DETERMINE SEVERE WEATHER REPORT

COVERAGE ACROSS ECNTRL TX. AS A LARGE MCS DEVELOPS FRIDAY

EVENING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS SRN

AR AND LA WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS CNTRL

MS.

...ERN TX PANHANDLE/SW OK...

AN UPPER-LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE SEWD INTO AZ

TONIGHT AND EWD TO THE VICINITY OF THE TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY

AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE

UPPER-LOW SHOULD OCCUR AS SFC TEMPS WARM LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO

THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE UPPER-LOW FRIDAY

AFTERNOON SHOW VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.

IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP AND SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY. THE SEVERE THREAT

SHOULD SPREAD EWD FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SW OK AND NCNTRL TX BY

LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND AN

ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELL

THUNDERSTORMS.

..BROYLES.. 04/12/2007

[NL]

Looking very favourable fof severe storms across eastern Texas then into Mississippi valley by evening.

SPC AC 130557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1257 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2007

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF CNTRL THROUGH NERN

TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE

LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SWRN U.S. WILL ADVANCE EAST INTO

THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ATTENDANT LEE SURFACE LOW AND COLD

FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH TX WHILE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD TO NEAR

THE RED RIVER AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

...CNTRL AND ERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY...

LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THE 00Z RAOB DATA SHOW RICH BOUNDARY LAYER

MOISTURE OVER S TX WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL

JET WILL PERSIST IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND

CONTRIBUTE TO THETA-E ADVECTION THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN TX FRIDAY IN

WAKE OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE

INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE. HOWEVER...UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS RETURNING NWD

BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE

INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. STORMS WILL LIKELY

BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY...MOSTLY WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND

ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF WARM FRONT FROM PARTS OF N TX INTO OK AND KS.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ELEVATED WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL.

STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP SWD INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR

ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND AS UPPER

DIVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE

UPPER TROUGH. A STRONG 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER CNTRL

AND ERN TX WITHIN EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET. THIS

WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR

FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING

WIND. GIVEN THE EXPECTED COMBINATION OF LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR AND CAPE

ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY

DISCRETE SUPERCELL MODES. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER MS

VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT.

...NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK...

MUCH OF THE STORMS IN OK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED N OF WARM

FRONT WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST MID

LEVEL DRY SLOT COULD ADVANCE NEWD INTO NWRN TX AND PARTS OF SWRN OK

DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR LOW

CLOUDS TO MIX OUT. IF LOW CLOUDS CAN MIX OUT...SURFACE HEATING AND

COLD MID LEVEL PROFILES SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MARGINAL SURFACE

BASED INSTABILITY IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL STORMS

MAY DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF DPVA NEAR TRIPLE POINT OR SWD ALONG COLD

FRONT AND ADVANCE EAST. A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING

WIND...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

..DIAL/CROSBY.. 04/13/2007

[NL]

Looks like a long night for some in the southern states..Public Severe Weather OutlookPrint Version ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL WOUS40 KWNS 131631 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-140030- PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2007 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS NORTHERN LOUISIANA CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS SURROUNDING THIS AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD INTO TEXAS...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSPORT RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO THREAT AREA. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE FROM WEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF WACO. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SUPERCELLS...TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...ALONG WITH VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL. SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS STORMS INCREASE IN NUMBER AND SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF LA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN MS. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY. ..HART.. 04/13/2007

[Paul Sherman]

With it being Friday the 13th lets just hope we have an Airport to land at in 2 weeks time Fort Worth under the loaded gun scenario, also worth mentioning quite a big Sporting event going on in the Dallas Metroplex area this evening. Should be good to get some Fort Worth Cameras Up and running this evening and could see some spectacular Supercells from the Cams and very good Lightning. One for Pottyprof !!

What a day to come back from my holiday with :lol:

Paul Sherman

[Nick F]

Lookin' good for chasing over NW Central Texas Friday afternoon into evening over there, some decent clear skies to the SW and W of DFW triggering some line squall convection and also a tornado watch:

urgent - immediate broadcast requested

Tornado Watch number 133

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2007

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

Tornado Watch for portions of

northwest Texas

Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until

700 PM CDT.

Tornadoes... hail to 3 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind

gusts to 80 mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these

areas.

The Tornado Watch area is approximately along and 70 statute

miles east and west of a line from 70 miles west southwest of

Brownwood Texas to 20 miles west northwest of Wichita Falls

Texas. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated

watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou3).

Remember... a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for

tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch

area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for

threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements

and possible warnings.

Discussion... scattered thunderstorms will develop early this

afternoon along dryline west of abi-sjt. These storms will move

eastward into an increasingly moist and unstable air mass. Backed

low level winds and observed vertical shear profiles appear very

favorable for supercells capable of tornadoes... as well as very

large hail and damaging winds. Strong tornadoes are possible.

Aviation... tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail

surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface

wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to

500. Mean storm motion vector 25035.

... Hart

Here's SPC's Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) chart ... with a bullseye just South of DFW:

[NL]

With it being Friday the 13th lets just hope we have an Airport to land at in 2 weeks time Fort Worth under the loaded gun scenario, also worth mentioning quite a big Sporting event going on in the Dallas Metroplex area this evening. Should be good to get some Fort Worth Cameras Up and running this evening and could see some spectacular Supercells from the Cams and very good Lightning. One for Pottyprof !!

What a day to come back from my holiday with :lol:

Paul Sherman

Yeah. its NASCAR i believe open air with the threat of large hailstones(dont fancy that!!).

Tornado warning issued.The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...

Baylor County in northern Texas...

* until 315 PM CDT

* at 240 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated

a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. The most

dangerous portion of the storm was located 15 miles west of

Westover... moving east-northeast at 40 mph. Any tornado is expected

to track south of Seymour... but Seymour will likely see giant hail.

In addition to a tornado threat... this storm likely contains

damaging hail to the size of baseballs or larger.

[Paul Sherman]

HIGH RISK ISSUED - PDS - PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0301 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2007

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL

AND NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK ACROSS

NRN/ERN TX...PARTS OF FAR SRN OK TO SWRN AR AND NRN/WRN LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK

ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THREAT FOR ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW

SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...VERY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING MORE PROBABLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO

NORTHEAST TX INTO THIS EVENING...

STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER ERN HALF OF NM IS

PROGGED TO MOVE ENEWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND

SHOULD REACH THE OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY...WITH LONG

WAVE TROUGH EDGING EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ASCENT AHEAD OF THESE

FEATURES AND ATOP MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT AN ACTIVE SEVERE

WEATHER EVENT ACROSS PARTS OF N TX TO NRN LA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH

A RISK OF A FEW STRONG TO SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES... VERY LARGE HAIL

AND DAMAGING WINDS. THUS...A HIGH RISK HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TO NE TX.

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH

CENTERED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. ATTENDANT DEEP LAYER ASCENT

WITH THIS FEATURE IS AIDING STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT VICINITY

OF SURFACE LOW SWD ALONG WIND SHIFT/DRY LINE IN NW TX. ALTHOUGH

THIS LEAD WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEWD INTO KS...A SECOND ZONE OF

ASCENT NOW MOVING INTO TX AHEAD OF PRIMARY NM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL

SPREAD EWD ACROSS TX/OK TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY MAINTAINING TSTM

DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG/E OF DRY LINE. EARLY

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW/TRIPLE POINT OVER NW TX

/VICINITY STONEWALL COUNTY/ WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD TO

SOUTH OF FTW/DAL METRO AREA TO NORTH OF HOU. DRYLINE EXTENDED SSWWD

FROM SURFACE LOW TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION. SURFACE LOW SHOULD

TRACK ENEWD ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AND BE LOCATED ALONG/JUST EAST OF

THE ARKLATEX REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY.

BROAD 50 KT SLY LLJ LOCATED OVER THE ERN HALF OF TX INTO LA WILL

MAINTAIN INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...AS

WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT N TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND

EVENTUALLY INTO NRN LA/SRN AR AND SWRN MS LATER THIS EVENING. STEEP

LAPSE RATES ATOP THIS MOISTURE RETURN COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL

SURFACE HEATING ALONG/E OF DRY LINE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE

INSTABILITY DEVELOPING/EXPANDING EWD INTO CENTRAL/NRN PARTS OF TX.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS THIS

AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED TORNADIC

SUPERCELLS VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT...WHERE 0-3 KM SRH

VALUES IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2 WILL FAVOR LOW LEVEL ROTATIONS WITHIN

MOISTENING AIR MASS. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD

OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE LINEAR

STRUCTURE AS SHEAR VECTORS BECOME ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL TO

PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT.

NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM SRN OK

EWD TO PARTS OF AR/NRN MS...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

ELEVATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION...ABOVE STABLE

BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT

About to kick off Big Time, Potty get those cams on and tune into the Fort Worth Weather Radio

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/streamaudio.html#livestream

Paul Sherman

[pottyprof]

Looks like I've made it on time.. :lol:

Need to nip for my liquid pain killer and then I'll hog the pooter for the rest of tonight..