Virtual storm chase

[pottyprof]

Nice one Nick..

How high would bases be along that line? Any good photo ops you think?

[Nick F]

I expect the cloud bases are fairly low with low LCLs (400m looking at data), the bases tend to be lowest on the SE side where most moisture is, W/NW side where air is drier the base would be higher I guess. Clearest skies for photo opps the furthest SE you are along squall line looking at satellite:

[Paul Sherman]

POST FROM JEFF SYNDER ON STORMTRACK

Sitting in Gainesville just waiting to see what happens. I'm concerned that the deep-layer shear vector is parallel to the frontal zone, which may help explain why we are seeing short line segments being the preferred mode of convection (as opposed to discrete activity). I wasn't paying attention, so I was surprised that temps are in the 30s and 40s with snow in the TX panhandle (Dalhart was reporting moderate snow)! Shear isn't too bad on the 18z FWD sounding, but, as expected, the widespread convection has obliterated the steep lapse rates and CAPE that were in place. The cell near Breckenridge doesn't look too bad, but it too is developing into a short line segment... Perhaps if I had a private plane on which I could fly to DRT, I'd be happier.

Crazy Just Crazy, only 48 hours earlier there were widespread Tornadoes with Dewpoints in the Mid 60's

Paul Sherman

[pottyprof]

Cheers Nick.. I see what you mean..

Paul.. Weird weather..

[Nick F]

... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 515 PM CDT for McLennan

County...

At 443 PM CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a

developing tornado. This tornado was located near Moody... or about

10 miles south of McGregor... moving northeast at 30 mph. Spotters

reported low level rotation with this storm near Moody.

The tornado will be near...

McGregor by 450 PM CDT...

Lorena by 500 PM CDT...

Hewitt and Woodway by 505 PM CDT...

Robinson by 510 PM CDT...

Beverly Hills and Waco by 515 PM CDT...

Evacuate Mobile homes for a storm shelter or permanent building. If

no shelter is available... lie flat in the nearest ditch and cover

your head.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT Friday evening for

north central Texas.

Storm located SW of Waco near Moody has dropped a nado guys and gals:

... Also North of Del Rio, this beast has dropped a nado:

... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 530 PM CDT for Val Verde

County...

At 445 PM CDT... National Weather Service radar continues to show an

area of thunderstorms... some severe... from lake Amistad to south of

Juno... moving east at 25 mph.

These thunderstorms are capable of producing tornadoes... damaging

winds in excess of 60 mph... penny to Golf Ball sized hail...

frequent deadly lightning... and periods of heavy rain.

If you are in a Mobile home or vehicle... get out and go to a sturdy

shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the nearest ditch

or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT Friday evening for

south central Texas.

[Nick F]

Rotating storm spawning tornado warning with 80 mph shear looks like it'll just miss Waco:

Barons is great ... some imgs posted on US forums now.

[Paul Sherman]

The one just off the Mexico Border will be totally in the Hills, that is a Very Grey area for Chasers and I dont think anybody ever attempts to chase there, the residents of Waco must be getting a bit worried.

Paul S

That will be your baby in just 29 days time Nick - The Barons that is!!

Potty we must be able to find a Tv Station in the Waco area covering this live, can we find anything??

Got it

http://www.kxxv.com/

[pottyprof]

http://www.kwtx.com/

Not sure if theres a live feed though... trying to find others

[Nick F]

Yes Paul, looking foward to playing around with Barons, it's the ultimate weather toy, the kind of mesoscale detail you just can't get in the UK.

Agree about the supercell near the Mexican border, roads probably few and far between in that area, so not great for chasing storms.

[pottyprof]

http://web2.airmail.net/danb1/Txmedia.htm

Links to all TV in Texas

[NL]

Fantastic thunderstorm now in Houston texas..

http://www.westchase.dst.tx.us/wdwebcam2.htm

[pottyprof]

Thought I'd seen lightning on there when I was checking the link a while ago. Added that one to the sticky..

[Paul Sherman]

Why Chasing at Night is NOT A very good idea, one very very lucky man. Long post but well worth the read.

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=11755

Paul Sherman

***Potty do you know how to show that post from Stormtrack - Thread titles how I nearly went to Oz???

[Stuart]

Why Chasing at Night is NOT A very good idea, one very very lucky man. Long post but well worth the read.

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=11755

Paul Sherman

***Potty do you know how to show that post from Stormtrack - Thread titles how I nearly went to Oz???

Look like the link do not work

[NL]

Why Chasing at Night is NOT A very good idea, one very very lucky man. Long post but well worth the read.

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=11755

Paul Sherman

***Potty do you know how to show that post from Stormtrack - Thread titles how I nearly went to Oz???

Weired that was Paul.. i was reading the very same thing !!!

Yeah had a lucky escape.. he mentioned that the tornado was water wrapped, suppose it dont really matter at night

i'd expect.. Not a situation i'd like to find myself in, but does make a great one to tell the grandkids!!

[Paul Sherman]

Reminded me of another pretty hairy StormChase, this time when your vehicle lets you down

http://vortex-times.com/92201chase

Paul Sherman

**Again well worth the read

[pottyprof]

Just read the stormtrack one... :lol:

[Paul Sherman]

Just been looking at the Models and looks like quite a lull possibly setting up with the Omega Block scenario and North West Flow over the Alley, dont mind if the "Death Ridge" sets up for a few weeks in April, just as long as it clears off in 4 weeks time

Paul S

[NL]

Amazing stories... If they hadnt reached the safety of Mrs Olson i think she'd have

surely perished as she was totally unaware a half-mile wide tornado was knocking on the door!!

Sure hope you and Nick dont come back with similar stories this year,,,

An omega block expected.. so how long can these sit around and what synoptics are needed to shift

it...(just so i know what to look for).

Amazing stories... If they hadnt reached the safety of Mrs Olson i think she'd have

surely perished as she was totally unaware a half-mile wide tornado was knocking on the door!!

Sure hope you and Nick dont come back with similar stories this year,,,

An omega block expected.. so how long can these sit around and what synoptics are needed to shift

it...(just so i know what to look for).

[Paul Sherman]

Hi NL

Only just seen your reply to my last post. Well put it this way the Omega Block and "Death Ridge" took hold from about 10 May last year until some time in June, so not an easy pattern to shift. But looks likely after an MCS Or two later this week that some more mobile patterns may emerge around the weekend of the 14/15th April.

Paul Sherman

[kold weather]

Yeah looks like things may become atouch quieter with a chunky 1040mbs high setting up by Tuesday-Wednesday and probably quite a strong cap setting up thanks to the pressure rising upto 1030mbs at times in the plains, very little in the way of any actvity witha high of that sort of strength (nice little NNW blast for the north though as well)

It appears the good news Paul is that the AO shows signs of going quite sharply positive again whichstrongly suggests that the high over Caanda will decay quite neatly between the 8-12th of April, i suspect things may trend a little more zonal after that, tohugh I don't really know enough about the set-ups in the states to say what use that would be, I do suppose depend on exactly where the jet stream sets itself up.

Saying that Friday-Saturday could have a little intrest, but I think its a fairly messy type of set-up mind you and it would e capped so I guess any actvity would be forced to occur along a frontal system which means it would be likely rather messy.

Edited April 1, 2007 by kold weather

[Paul Sherman]

Yes agree with all of that Darren. Looks like NW Flow and a few Messy MCS's over the Hill Country of Texas so unchaseable any way, good to see the High and Eastern Seaboard Troughing getting shunted, this has all the look of 1982 to me atm. That year had reload patterns through the early spring, and when the pattern had reloaded Spin ups were plentiful. Still have a good feeling about the end of April and Early May.

Paul S

[Nick F]

Tuesday (4th) may see some action in area NEwards from NE Texas upto the Great Lakes, encompasing Arkansas, SE MO, W TN, Illinois and Indiana. Storms, some possibly severe with large hail and the odd tornado are likely in the warm sector as rather moist air over central and Ern US advects NEward ahead of a strong active cold front moving in from the W with much drier and cooler air behind.

Tuesday GFS 18z DPs and CAPE

But as you both say, it's going to rather too messy to chase, as they'll be cold front storms rather than dry line intiated storms - so High Precptn. MCSs or perhaps HP Supercells most likely mode.

After that much drier air spreading South and East over much of the Mid-west, and Sern plains for the rest of the week as a NW'erly flow sets in, so little if any in the way of storms. Maybe a small cahnce over SW TX where the warm moist air hangs on.

[kold weather]

For what its worth I'm going to try and virtual chase a little more once you guys are out in the states, esp as I've got a chance of being able to go chasing late next May, though thats a long long way away yet!

Hopefully I'll get a better taste for how these things work this time round.

Is a forum being set-up for the chase this year???

(edit----okay one has just been set-up from the looks of things, someone must be reading this, hehehe!)

Edited April 1, 2007 by kold weather

[NL]

Hi NL

Only just seen your reply to my last post. Well put it this way the Omega Block and "Death Ridge" took hold from about 10 May last year until some time in June, so not an easy pattern to shift. But looks likely after an MCS Or two later this week that some more mobile patterns may emerge around the weekend of the 14/15th April.

Paul Sherman

Cheers.. just read a post on stormtrack and one member points out that after such a pattern the US usually experiences large

outbreaks and hints that models are showing a strong pacific jet straight west to east around the 15th... lets hope this pattern remains for the remainder of the season...