Met Office winter NAO forecast...

[Duane S.]

For flips sake, it's the middle of July!

'They' haven't got a clue, we haven't got a clue.

I can't believe I am even bothering to waste 10 minutes of my time (I'm a slow typer) posting this. What differencve would it've made if they'd said it was going to be a cool winter, at this stage?? They've got the same data we have, it's a speculatative LRF not one for three days time.

Surely their response was obvious??? We know they take little note of SSTs and with a very strong possibility of La Nina cropping up, how on earth could they've gone for a blistering cold forecast??

[swfc]

Cant find the meto forecast for the nao.

[moses]

For flips sake, it's the middle of July!

'They' haven't got a clue, we haven't got a clue.

I can't believe I am even bothering to waste 10 minutes of my time (I'm a slow typer) posting this. What differencve would it've made if they'd said it was going to be a cool winter, at this stage?? They've got the same data we have, it's a speculatative LRF not one for three days time.

Surely their response was obvious??? We know they take little note of SSTs and with a very strong possibility of La Nina cropping up, how on earth could they've gone for a blistering cold forecast??

Frankly then : a negative NAO of -0.34 will give what from December to Feb say?

A few more frosty days than last year , perhaps a few more snowy days/ foggy days - and that's it

Historically, this reading appears much better than many years over the last 20

Should we be reasonably pleased in terms of a reasonably good winter compared to recent years?

Guy

[Paul]

Unfortunately whilst the actual Meto forecasts for winters over the last couple of years have been pretty succesful, their forecasting of the NAO has been less so. IMO reading too much into an NAO forecast at this stage is probably fool hardy. I think at this stage it would take a brave forecaster to suggest anything other than a winter with above average temperatures. That isn't to say that as we get close things won't change and other factors may come into play, but at this extremely early stage above average is the only way to go imo.

[Bobby]

To be fair I'd be happy with a just above average winter, after some of the ridiculously mild winters we've had in recent years. At least we shouldn't have a winter worse than last winter, it'll take a lot to top that, even though I was reasonably happy due to the blizzards on 8th/9th Feb that gave a foot of snow.

[david16]

Constant mild to exceptionally mild, and wet and windy weather would be yet another disappointing winter.

It has been generally +15C to +16C daytime maximum here in Scotland for most of June and July so far, yet come winter time it will probably once again be generally rubbish of daytime maximums being only 3C lower than it's been this summer, and nightime temperatures in the range of +5 to +7C, with us being sandwiched between the semi permanent azores high and icelandic low meaning we'll mainly get days and weeks on end of constant heavy rain accompanied by high west or southwest winds with only the occasional brief 1 or 2 day northerly respite pulling daytime maximum temperatures temporarily down to +ve single figures.

How much more depressing can things get in winter time here in the UK?

Edited July 15, 2007 by david16

[Bobby]

Constant mild to exceptionally mild, and wet and windy weather would be yet another disappointing winter.

It has been generally +15C to +16C daytime maximum here in Scotland for most of June and July so far, yet come winter time it will probably once again be generally rubbish of daytime maximums being only 3C lower than it's been this summer, and nightime temperatures in the range of +5 to +7C, with us being sandwiched between the semi permanent azores high and icelandic low meaning we'll mainly get days and weeks on end of constant heavy rain accompanied by high west or southwest winds with only the occasional brief 1 or 2 day northerly respite pulling daytime maximum temperatures temporarily down to +ve single figures.

How much more depressing can things get in winter time here in the UK?

Indeedy, the last 12 months have been perpetual Autumn. It doesn't seem much different today than it was in Janruary, just a few degrees warmer. Perhaps this cooler period may, just may, be a positive for this winter.

[Mark Bayley]

April wasn't bad though. Anyway this winter can not be as bad as last year.

Edited July 15, 2007 by mark bayley

[tinybill]

Evening all been watching our local 5 day weather for the week I know we are all in despair even she said to-night rain sometime for all 5 days this week. And she even said the there is worst weather coming for this comeing week end

Edited July 15, 2007 by tinybill

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

Indeed!

I had expected them to go for a more negative value than they have but they have given an error range of 1 either way so they could get it wrong.

IMO, they are playing it safe. Also, I don't understand how they can still predict a weakly negative NAO signal and yet still predict above average temperatures.

I would imagine that they get the above average temps from the fact that nearly every month at the moment is well above average - they couldnt forecast on SST's alone...

Ned

[Lettucing Gutted]

We won't be getting a cool September this year. According to todays Daily Express were going to be getting a warm August AND September. Oh and the rest of the Autumn will be wet and windy as well. We all now what that means for the winter...

[kold weather]

Well interestingly the long range models actually strongly support a cool August and September, in fact the August-September-October time frame has been progged between -0.5 down to -1C for quite a while now and I can see no real reason why we'd see a large pattern change to move us away from the one we have now barring upper atmopsheric temp changes and possibly ex-hurricanes.

[Stu_London]

Well interestingly the long range models actually strongly support a cool August and September, in fact the August-September-October time frame has been progged between -0.5 down to -1C for quite a while now and I can see no real reason why we'd see a large pattern change to move us away from the one we have now barring upper atmopsheric temp changes and possibly ex-hurricanes.

Can't be right if the Daily Express have called a warm September

they obviously bought a job lot of Piers Corbyn forecasts and can't bear to see them go to waste.

Still they are not bothered - getting it right doesn't matter - getting the headline right to flog the woeful rag is the key.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Anyway this winter can not be as bad as last year.

If we don't stop global warming we will get a "winter" in the future that will make the summer of 2003 look like the winter of 1962/1963.

[J10]

The Express says it ,so it must be right.

[Big Bear]

The signs look good for a slightly below average winter 07/08 in my opinion. I know we've heard it all before but the SSTs and the NAO throughout April, beginnging & end of May, June AND July has been moderately to strongly negative.

Clocking up below average temps is the next milestone. A cool July will get people talking but we'll need at least a couple more below av. months before December before I start getting really interested.

[summer blizzard]

The signs look good for a slightly below average winter 07/08 in my opinion. I know we've heard it all before but the SSTs and the NAO throughout April, beginnging & end of May, June AND July has been moderately to strongly negative.

Clocking up below average temps is the next milestone. A cool July will get people talking but we'll need at least a couple more below av. months before December before I start getting really interested.

I agree for the most part, though June had a NAO value of -1.3, which i would call negative rather than strongly negative, and i also agree with the below average temperatures, despite the warmest first half to a year on record, it means little if we can notch up below average months close to winter.

[damianslaw]

I agree for the most part, though June had a NAO value of -1.3, which i would call negative rather than strongly negative, and i also agree with the below average temperatures, despite the warmest first half to a year on record, it means little if we can notch up below average months close to winter.

Yes certainly what I am looking out for now is a spell of below average months i.e. July August and September then perhaps a warmer October to be followed by a average November and then much colder than average December

[suffolkboy_]

Well July looks like maybe being the first below average month this year, and the first in a long, long time I think, we havn't had many in the last 3 years!!

I think this Autumn could be good for storms, I seem to remember that 1987 was very wet during the summer, and look what happened that Autumn!

My ideal situation would be at least 2 or 3 more below average months between now and November, leaving SSTs below average. if this happened then it only helps everything to cool down - winter in affect starts earlier, giving the sea an even longer period to cool down, leading to a general cool down pattern over the following years untill a long hot spell occurs. I know its not all that simple, but that is what i beleive "global warming" is, we are in one huge cycle, we will have hot, and cold periods, we are lucky to be in the temperate climate we are in.

Edited July 17, 2007 by suffolkboy_

[summer blizzard]

As this is the winter thread, i thought that i would say that with August approaching, i am now looking towards the formation of the Polar Vortex, and assuming that the current model outputs are right and a polar vortex does develop on the 27th July (+240 hours), this will be the earliest such formation since 2003, thus for the Arctic, 2003 should be a good anologue, similar conditions were also present in 2002 and 2001, though in all three cases, the polar Votex formed earlier.

This is relevant to winter because the formation of a Polar Vortex will cause ice formation and also dicate to some degree where any cold pooling will mount up, in this case it looks to be over Canada, thus i dont anticipate a hot August given that this will agrivate the thermal gradiant.

[Don]

Well, although I'm confident that next Winter will be colder than the last, I still think at this stage it will be milder than average. The last five years apart from 2005/06 have all had mild Winters although not without interest and I think this coming Winter will follow suite. I think it could be similar to the Winters of 2003/04 or 2004/05. These were both mild overall but somewhat better than the Winters of the late 90's.

All to become much clearer over the next few months!

[Guest Viking141]

As this is the winter thread, i thought that i would say that with August approaching, i am now looking towards the formation of the Polar Vortex, and assuming that the current model outputs are right and a polar vortex does develop on the 27th July (+240 hours), this will be the earliest such formation since 2003, thus for the Arctic, 2003 should be a good anologue, similar conditions were also present in 2002 and 2001, though in all three cases, the polar Votex formed earlier.

This is relevant to winter because the formation of a Polar Vortex will cause ice formation and also dicate to some degree where any cold pooling will mount up, in this case it looks to be over Canada, thus i dont anticipate a hot August given that this will agrivate the thermal gradiant.

Excellent. Im assuming you mean winter 2003-2004 which was quite snowy up here so hopefully youre right!

[ribster]

As this is the winter thread, i thought that i would say that with August approaching, i am now looking towards the formation of the Polar Vortex, and assuming that the current model outputs are right and a polar vortex does develop on the 27th July (+240 hours), this will be the earliest such formation since 2003, thus for the Arctic, 2003 should be a good anologue, similar conditions were also present in 2002 and 2001, though in all three cases, the polar Votex formed earlier.

This is relevant to winter because the formation of a Polar Vortex will cause ice formation and also dicate to some degree where any cold pooling will mount up, in this case it looks to be over Canada, thus i dont anticipate a hot August given that this will agrivate the thermal gradiant.

Sounds promising, I will watch with interest. I personally think we are in for a good one.

[summer blizzard]

I think parralels to winter are a little early, however for people such as Viking, with greater cold pooling to the north, there is a chance of earlier snowfall.

[noggin]

I gather from another thread that ice formation on "our side" of the Arctic is much better than this time last year. I imagine that without a heatwave (yet) this Summer our SSTs will be a bit lower than last year, too.

Now to my very simple mind this is looking positive for an increased amount of :lol: this Winter!