October 2007 CET

[West is Best]

Todays Hadley update shows October CET currently standing at a fairly balmy 12.7C which is 0.9C above the rolling mean.

Yes and another day upwards, but if the projected minima are right for next week then a very sharp fall away will happen. From Wednesday onwards groundfost looks widespread and I'd reckon the CET could be heading southwards pretty fast. I haven't double checked the figures cos I'm doing a lesson plan, but back to around 12C by next Sunday (21st) I'd have thought, perhaps even into the 11's by then.

[WhiteXmas]

Yes and another day upwards, but if the projected minima are right for next week then a very sharp fall away will happen. From Wednesday onwards groundfost looks widespread and I'd reckon the CET could be heading southwards pretty fast. I haven't double checked the figures cos I'm doing a lesson plan, but back to around 12C by next Sunday (21st) I'd have thought, perhaps even into the 11's by then.

TWO says that the CET is currently 12.15C. Don't know the accuracy of this, but possibly could end up in the 10's if this is true?

[Stratos Ferric]

TWO says that the CET is currently 12.15C. Don't know the accuracy of this, but possibly could end up in the 10's if this is true?

I think I'd go with the Hadley data myself. Comparing the Hadley data with TWO is rather like comparing ASDA own label beans with Heinz.

[Stu_London]

TWO says that the CET is currently 12.15C. Don't know the accuracy of this, but possibly could end up in the 10's if this is true?

It is worth bearing in mind that Hadley often runs ahead of Manley only to be corrected on the final day.

Assuming that the CET was 12.9 after today this is my outrun for the week: -

15th - 12.8

16th - 12.9

17th - 12.7

18th - 12.4

19th - 12.1

20th - 11.9

21st - 11.8

Beyond the 21st, the ensembles fall to below average although this co-incides with the return of the atlantic, so minimas (the chief reason for this weeks projected fall) are propped up.

My probabilities for the end of the month are

Below 10 - 0%

10.0-10.4 - 5%

10.5-10.9 - 20%

11.0-11.5 - 40%

11.6-12.0 - 25%

12.1-12.5 - 8%

Over 12.5 - 2%

Will update midweek

[Stratos Ferric]

My early month projection

I'm certainly not favouring the current as modelled month-end; it might be cool, but I very much doubt in the way indicated. GFS occasionally throws up these diving low pressure areas in FI and they never happen. As noted on the plot, I'd currently back the HP migrating further E, but the models have been insistent about something cooler, which is what the actual graphing is based on.

Low 11s looking like the landing zone at this stage.

[Stu_London]

My early month projection

I'm certainly not favouring the current as modelled month-end; it might be cool, but I very much doubt in the way indicated. GFS occasionally throws up these diving low pressure areas in FI and they never happen. As noted on the plot, I'd currently back the HP migrating further E, but the models have been insistent about something cooler, which is what the actual graphing is based on.

Low 11s looking like the landing zone at this stage.

Remarkably, looks like we are in full agreement again SF

[Stratos Ferric]

Remarkably, looks like we are in full agreement again SF

Well, there's only so much scope for deviation from the models: I do plot what the charts show, with a bit of interpretation. My narrative may differ, hence I'm suspecting the month end will probably not be in the precise corridor shown, even if it nets out in the same place. I don't fancy the cold end, and suspect that if anything we'll end up closer to 11.5 than 11. If not, though, the next erro is downside rather than more upside I think.

[West is Best]

Below 10 - 0%

Unwise I think. Granted it's extremely unlikely, but impossible it isn't.

Now I await some remark from SF, replete with analogy about a 4th division football team, its manager and a ball called ... flopsy.

[Stu_London]

Unwise I think. Granted it's extremely unlikely, but impossible it isn't.

Now I await some remark from SF, replete with analogy about a 4th division football team, its manager and a ball called ... flopsy.

Not saying it impossible - 0% is rounded down from a value of less then one half of a percent - which is where i see it

[kold weather]

Can't really disagree with what you predict SF, I'd be tempted to go along the cooler side of the two possible outcome boundaries simply because I think a cooler set-up may well continue for the rest of the month once the high gets sent eastwards between the 21-23rd of October, I suspect given the good model agreement some sort of cut-off low will develop and if thats the case then depending on where the low places itself we could see a fairly cool NW/N flow for a good chunk of the month and that will reduce the CET further.

If I had to punt now I'd go between 11.1-11.4C

[summer blizzard]

Looks like i will be near the mark, that would make six of the last seven predictions within 0.7C of the Manley outturn.

[Stu_London]

Looks like i will be near the mark, that would make six of the last seven predictions within 0.7C of the Manley outturn.

You must be near the top of the league then SB

[West is Best]

Not saying it impossible - 0% is rounded down from a value of less then one half of a percent - which is where i see it

ROFL brilliant. :lol:

Why oh why don't you go into politics Stu?

Edited October 14, 2007 by West is Best

[SMU]

These people look like being in Prime position for the monthly CET trophey based on the last 2 days ensemble averaging-

11.3c :Snow maiden

11.3C: Laser Guy

11.4C: UkMoose

11.4C: Summer Blizzard

11.4C: Don

11.4C: Somerset Squall

11.5C: Sunshine

11.5C: The PIT

11.5C: Blizzards

11.5C: The Calm Before The Storm

11.6C: Bottesford

11.6C: TWS

11.6C: Mark H

11.7C: Kold weather

11.7C: Kentish Man

S

Edited October 14, 2007 by Steve Murr

[J10]

Unfortunately for Summer Blizzard, most of SB's predictions have been 0.6c or 0.7c out, so not that many accuracy points.

[Roger J Smith]

I think that Antarctic ice is creeping ever closer to the Channel, and that could lead to a freak southerly blizzard on the 30th and 31st that will drop the CET to 9.9, remember, you heard it here first.

:lol:

[Stratos Ferric]

Unwise I think. Granted it's extremely unlikely, but impossible it isn't.

Now I await some remark from SF, replete with analogy about a 4th division football team, its manager and a ball called ... flopsy.

WiB,

I'm with Stu; perhaps the chances are around 1%. Put another way, I'm the manager of Accrington Stanley, being interviewed ahead of the first round of the FA Cup: of course I say "yes we can win the cup". But at heart, I know we can't - but I'm the manager, and I've thrown my lot in with the Stanley; my daughter's rabbit might be called Flopsy, but that doesn't change the odds one bit.

Looks like i will be near the mark, that would make six of the last seven predictions within 0.7C of the Manley outturn.

Which predictions SB, it's hard to keep up.

[Stu_London]

Put another way, I'm the manager of Accrington Stanley, being interviewed ahead of the first round of the FA Cup: of course I say "yes we can win the cup". But at heart, I know we can't - but I'm the manager, and I've thrown my lot in with the Stanley

Wouldn't happen to be away to Leeds in the first round would you

[summer blizzard]

Which predictions SB, it's hard to keep up.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...0010&st=680

The final figure for the CET comp..

[osmposm]

You must be near the top of the league then SB

Um....39th at the last count !

Edited October 14, 2007 by osmposm

[summer blizzard]

Um....39th at the last count !

Unfortunately, my predictions for December to March were appaling, i then changed my methods and have had much success..

I think i was 7th overall for the summer period..

[Glacier Point]

I have to say Bottesford looks very placed right now, in the overall lead with a likely good points tally for October and only November to go. Good luck !

[Mammatus]

Hi GP, yeah I agree with this. Bottesford is doing very well. Good luck to him!

Mammatus

Edited October 15, 2007 by Mammatus

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

I'm the lowest in the Annual CET table out of those with at least 7 entries. Even lower than many with 1 or 2 entries!

I think it was August when I changed from stab-in-the-dark to SSTA + stab-in-the-dark.

Since then I've had my first 2 pointer ... that's not very accurate but I had achieved only 1s and 0s before then.

It's fun having your own system.

Second half of October looks colder *as if on cue*. Rolling Hadley is +0.9C. My guess was +0.5C so I need the colder runs to come off for below average temps from 23 Oct onwards.

Edited October 15, 2007 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[West is Best]

WiB,

I'm with Stu; perhaps the chances are around 1%.

Well we shall see. We're not even half way through the month yet and a marked cooldown is about to start. Ironically the less potency behind the northerly is likely to cause the CET to drop further if only because the high is now projected over us for several days. We're going to see some sharply cool minima, and much lower maxima. From Tuesday onwards the CET is likely to plummet.

It's worth bearing in mind that entire Octobers have come in the 7's and 8's before now, so estimating a drop from 13C to 10C between first and second half end is not as outlandish as it may seem - it's more than possible and depends, bien sur, on the synoptics. At the moment I don't know about the final week, but I do think a second northerly incursion is possible. The kind being shown on the 0z is just a FI tease, but you never know. I would put the odds of getting to average at around 10%, but I might sharply revise those odds upwards.