October 2007 CET

[West is Best]

Actually SF I think it's even more than 4C for the maxima (which is what I referred to). Take a look: http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0710.htm

October is a month beyond, I think, all others for the tapering off although Kevin may correct me on that. I'd be very interested to know if and when second halves of October have ever been warmer than first halves. It must be exceptionally rare, if it has happened. Which is as much to say that if we're at around 12-ish by the 15th it's pretty likely to fall away regardless of the synoptics (which favour a cooldown anyway).

Edited October 10, 2007 by West is Best

[eddie]

I'd be very interested to know if and when second halves of October have ever been warmer than first halves. It must be exceptionally rare, if it has happened.

I counted 32 instances since 1772 where the first half of October was colder than the second half and 7 instances where the first half was equal to the second half. Using those stats you would expect 14 out of every 100 Octobers to have a warmer 2nd Half. Fairly unusual but I wouldn't go so far to say exceptionally rare.

[Stratos Ferric]

Actually SF I think it's even more than 4C for the maxima (which is what I referred to). Take a look: http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0710.htm

October is a month beyond, I think, all others for the tapering off although Kevin may correct me on that. I'd be very interested to know if and when second halves of October have ever been warmer than first halves. It must be exceptionally rare, if it has happened. Which is as much to say that if we're at around 12-ish by the 15th it's pretty likely to fall away regardless of the synoptics (which favour a cooldown anyway).

Of course it will cool down as a rule, but that wasn't the essence of my point, which still stands.

You're right about the max though: the drop is around 4C.

Didn't you accuse me of folly last month for calling the month-end synoptics from this point in the month?

Actually SF I think it's even more than 4C for the maxima (which is what I referred to). Take a look: http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0710.htm

October is a month beyond, I think, all others for the tapering off although Kevin may correct me on that. I'd be very interested to know if and when second halves of October have ever been warmer than first halves. It must be exceptionally rare, if it has happened. Which is as much to say that if we're at around 12-ish by the 15th it's pretty likely to fall away regardless of the synoptics (which favour a cooldown anyway).

I am looking forward to running the analysis for you on likely outturn from mid-month though WiB.

[damianslaw]

I expect the CET to peak on Sunday, if the high pressure forecasted to build in mid week next week does so and provided it doesn't bring cloud cover at night I would expect by the end of next week for the CET to be close to near average, my odds of scoring 10.9 seem quite a good bet at this stage, i got it right last month, perhaps I'm on a roll! we shall see

[summer blizzard]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

A lot of ensemble support for a potent northerly around the 17th.

[Hiya]

Predicting is easy...here you go...'northerly in twenty one days' time..and there aren't even any charts to look at yet'. What's hard is predicting accurately.

Well I don't want to get personal or go off topic anymore so I shall just say that that is a bit cheeky - the reason for which the more observant members may be aware of.

[SP1986]

I think everyone should hold fire re: the northeasterly on the charts, I'm not convinced (although its more likely than that freak southerly plume that was on the charts last week), I dont think it'll be a cause for concern yet, and its certainly not robust, however if it were to happen, the CET would take a dive, so to speak. However it could go either way I believe.

[Stratos Ferric]

Even my mild expectations for mid month look like being underestimates. Hadley now provisionally at 12.4. and it's unlikely to do anything other than rise through to Monday. We could be substantially ahead of par by early next week. The models have been consistent in suggesting a brief brush from a polar mass, but continuing recent trends it gets pushed E before it gets established. Thereafter the models say settled, dry, and around average. Cloud will continue to be a factor, though from a E'ly I'd expect a reverse of what we've seen recently: i.e look for clearer days and cloudy nights, so long as there's at least a bit of breeze.

[DR Hosking]

not sure if today will make it rise, 6c overnight and fog and 9c all morning, now sunny though

[weather eater]

With the best part of three weeks to go and only making calculations based on notoriously unpredictable at long range weather models, it’s a lottery and no more. Might have a guess myself if there was any chance of winning anything.

[Optimus Prime]

Does look as if the period 11th-15th will be the warmest period of October so far. GFS averages it around 14.5c.

The CET by the 15th may be as high as 12.9c.

[Kentish Man]

Hadley today has the CET at 12.4C (Oct 1 - 10) so we are standing a little above average for this stage of the month now.

Edit Sorry SF I see you beat me to it.

Edited October 11, 2007 by Kentish Man

[West is Best]

Even my mild expectations for mid month look like being underestimates. Hadley now provisionally at 12.4. and it's unlikely to do anything other than rise through to Monday.We could be substantially ahead of par by early next week

I think you're over-baking the cake there, unsurprisingly.

Last night was distinctly nippy: lots of 4C's around in the CET zone. A rise quite likely but 'substantially above' is pure spin, and way wide of the mark.

Next week isn't average by the time you factor in those night frosts.

Edited October 11, 2007 by West is Best

[SP1986]

I think you're over-baking the cake there, unsurprisingly.

Last night was distinctly nippy: lots of 4C's around in the CET zone. A rise quite likely but 'substantially above' is pure spin, and way wide of the mark.

Next week isn't average by the time you factor in those night frosts.

forgive me for my critical approach here Richard, but lots of 4C's, hmm, I'm a little sceptical of that assertion, because although it was cool in the CET zone, 4C it wasnt. You simply cant assume because it may have been cooler in your location it counts for everywhere, as I know you live in a cooler area, I've seen so when you post your CC's.

Why skip this week, thats really the easy way out. Please Richard can you take an objective view instead of skipping the bits that suit you, ie this weekend, in which day temperatures are well above average and will make its mark on the CET, and it does matter, because that will shorten the decline the CET goes through if say the weekend was average.

I would like to see the old Richard the one who took an objective view, not just the cold one. Its obvious from where I'm standing that you are favouring cold in your assessment of the conditions, and in all honesty I would agree if it was cold, but its not, and not programmed to be in the believeable time frame.

For reference, temperatures that read 4, even though some may have been rounded up to 5, but I would suggest 4C

Marham (21 m) 4.6°

Shawbury (72 m) 4.4°

Pershore (31 m) 4.1°

Stansted Airport (106 m) 4°

Charlwood (58 m) 4.0°

Only 5 there.

[West is Best]

Stephen, the Richard you see is the Richard who got September right. Being a mild ramper isn't being objective. I was caught out in winter 2005/6 and I was caught out again this summer. It seems to me one has to look at what is really happening and be honest and objective about it. I happen to think we've been in a pattern change since around April this year. What's also fascinating to me is that neutral synoptics are not bringing warm temperatures.

Anyway, just to be factual for a moment there were a string of central England stations in the 4's last night:

Charlwood (58 m) 4.0°

Exeter AP (30 m) 4°

Stansted Airport (106 m) 4°

Pershore (31 m) 4.1°

Bournemouth (10 m) 4.3°

Shawbury (72 m) 4.4°

Northolt (39 m) 4.5°

Marham (21 m) 4.6°

Larkhill (133 m) 4.6°

Great Malvern (44 m) 4.7°

Boscombe Down (126 m) 4.8°

Hawarden (9 m) 4.9°

Data from Weatheronline.

Edited October 11, 2007 by West is Best

[Optimus Prime]

I agree, there was quite a run of sub 5.0c last night. Certainly more then was expected and in comparison to recent Octobers, it's exceptional.

[TEITS]

I think you're over-baking the cake there, unsurprisingly.

Last night was distinctly nippy: lots of 4C's around in the CET zone. A rise quite likely but 'substantially above' is pure spin, and way wide of the mark.

Next week isn't average by the time you factor in those night frosts.

Exactly right WIB and looking at the ensembles there is very good agreement for some frosty nights.

Im not surprised some are over over cooking the temps because TBH some have done this for the past few months. As I was once told if you keep predicting the same then you are bound to get it right sometimes!.

I shall continue to follow your posts closely Richard because recently you have been spot on.

[Glacier Point]

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

I rather suspect that in 7 - 10 days we will be pretty much where we are now. Some warmer nights and days, some colder nights and days, some avarage days there.

Thereafter, a downward pressure on the value ? Not much time left in the month to wipe large values off the CET, probably ending up somewhere 11.5 - 12 C would be my range at the moment.

Edited October 11, 2007 by Glacier Point

[Stratos Ferric]

I think you're over-baking the cake there, unsurprisingly.

Last night was distinctly nippy: lots of 4C's around in the CET zone. A rise quite likely but 'substantially above' is pure spin, and way wide of the mark.

Next week isn't average by the time you factor in those night frosts.

It isn't going to fall much today WiB, if at all: there might well have been "lots of 4Cs" in CET land, but not many of them seemed to have been around the official stations - there were just as many 6s, 7s and 8s. Tonight is mild, as are the next 3 days. With the baseline going in the other direction I think "substantially" still holds good. The upward movement in actual mean to date could quite easily be 0.4 or 0.5C by Monday; meanwhile the month to date baseline should be around 0.3 lower. Adding the 0.3 margin we already have I see no problem with saying we'll be 1C up. I guess for anyone bidding for a low outturn it might make uncomfortable reading, but that seems to be a fair reading of the immediate outlook.

[WhiteXmas]

This backs up what I was saying ladt month. This northerly will be the defining factor methinks

[Stratos Ferric]

Exactly right WIB and looking at the ensembles there is very good agreement for some frosty nights.

Im not surprised some are over over cooking the temps because TBH some have done this for the past few months. As I was once told if you keep predicting the same then you are bound to get it right sometimes!.

I shall continue to follow your posts closely Richard because recently you have been spot on.

Class post. Poor WiB - last month he shot high and it came in low. This month he shot low, and, to be honest, it's starting to look like a fair old turnaround will be required. Plenty of time for it to change yet though, and certainly far too early to be resorting to inventing stories to suit our own bids.

[WhiteXmas]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

A lot of ensemble support for a potent northerly around the 17th.

This is what I was going on about ladst month whilst predicting the October CET. This Northerly will be the defining factor for sure methinks

[Stratos Ferric]

This is what I was going on about ladst month whilst predicting the October CET. This Northerly will be the defining factor for sure methinks

Will someone please define 'potent northerly', and also check they aren't looking at the charts upside down first!

[kold weather]

The northerly probably won't be all that long lasting though it is a fairly cool shot, however I agree with SF the likely evolution of the models would be to send the high eastwards into Europe like ECM and to eventually pick up a fairly warm ESE type flow. It'll require an extremely potent cold spell after that to get us down to average again.

Edited October 11, 2007 by kold weather

[Stratos Ferric]

I grant you there's a dip on the 17th: potent, sustained, enough to make a big difference come the month end? The dip next week is a lot less than the current upswing in terms of gross impact, furthermore the current upswing is near real-time, Monday could still change. Beyond that, as GP says, steady settled weather.