October 2007 CET

[Stratos Ferric]

Stratos what surprises me is that we're not about 2C or 3C higher given the synoptics we've had. This has been a pattern since around May. The warmer setups don't seem to me to be cutting the same mustard. In particular minima seem to have been a lot more potent.

By the way, I would just be a tad cautious about where this month is going. I still think we're in a pattern transition, and that overall we could be heading for a sharply colder end of the month.

Here's a daring wager I'll have with you: autumn will be below average. Fancy the bet?! I'm wanting to extend to autumn because I'm not certain all the affects of the change will be felt through this month.

It's a very daring wager, given that Sept was above and October is trended north.

I wouldn't say the cold has been particularly sharp WiB, so much as that, for the first time in a little while, we have been getting some early autumn cold. It's easy to forget that it's not that long ago that we had six cold months on the bounce, albeit that they sit just the otherside of, in historical terms, a narrow Himalayan range of warmth.

[Evo]

Can anyone tell me what the point of this thread is?

I really enjoy reading the bantering of the CET threads. All of the regular contributors debate with a great deal of restraint and respect on the whole. The only time it becomes tiresome is when an inadvertant agent provocateur (who may not appreciate or understand the good natured ribbing) jumps in and manages to rub people up the wrong way.

As analogues are all the rage, I see this as the analogue of a bunch of bearded middle aged men in a pub having a good natured debate on something as important as whether dark navy blue is blue or black.

Oh and err, 10.7c.

[West is Best]

It's a very daring wager, given that Sept was above and October is trended north.

Go on then, shall we wager it? (Against the 1971-2000 mean and using Hadley official). September was only just above.

Mind you, the pattern changes I think I detect can take time to work through. As I posted above, today's record warmest day was in 1978. That year both October and November were warm, and then came the mother and father of all winters for snow lovers.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Go on then, shall we wager it? (Against the 1971-2000 mean and using Hadley official). September was only just above.

Mind you, the pattern changes I think I detect can take time to work through. As I posted above, today's record warmest day was in 1978. That year both October and November were warm, and then came the mother and father civil partnership of all winters for snow lovers.

Sea temps around UK edging toward 2C above average. Is the CET radiator heating up?

Next week's northerly could take the edge of them. Something to watch. I'd really like negative SSTs going into winter.

I think October will end up above average. I think I predicted +0.5C which would still be in range if we had a cool second half of the month. A below average October CET now looks unlikely.

[West is Best]

AF I may think you can be a bit of a fruitcake sometimes, and you probably the same of me, but I do love your politically correct alteration to my quote. Nice one

[Stratos Ferric]

Go on then, shall we wager it? (Against the 1971-2000 mean and using Hadley official). September was only just above.

Mind you, the pattern changes I think I detect can take time to work through. As I posted above, today's record warmest day was in 1978. That year both October and November were warm, and then came the mother and father of all winters for snow lovers.

Playful wager it is: you're on a loser mind of course: I would perhaps even sell you a mark around 0.3C above the long term mean. Here's a thought: net-weather CET traded options!

[WhiteXmas]

Stratos ... you really don't think these charts are remarkable ...? I'm not talking about strength, but alignment. If this carries on into winter we will be in for a cold one. Such charts are more akin to 1978/9 than your even larger teapot:

Seriously, in all honesty, 'interesting', no?

Not only is this interesting, it is very exciting. What a winter we will be in for if this actually comes to fruition and develops into a trend. You can quote me on this; this winter will be one of the coldest Britain has had for 3 or 4 decades. In terms of snow, we'll have to wait and see..obviously. Anyhoo, going by this chart, looks to me as if the CET will drop by a massive margin. Let's hope so all the people who predicted low CET's(me included!)

[Anti-Mild]

Playful wager it is: you're on a loser mind of course: I would perhaps even sell you a mark around 0.3C above the long term mean. Here's a thought: net-weather CET traded options!

I'll take some of that action !

Let's say that October comes in at 11.3c, which would be 0.9c above average. Add this to September's mark of 13.8c, a mere 0.1c above average. That would mean a cumulative anomaly of 1.0c which would mean that November need only be 6.3c, or 0.1c below average to cash in on your option.

Sure you don't want to reconsider?

[West is Best]

I'll take some of that action !

Let's say that October comes in at 11.3c, which would be 0.9c above average. Add this to September's mark of 13.8c, a mere 0.1c above average. That would mean a cumulative anomaly of 1.0c which would mean that November need only be 6.3c, or 0.1c below average to cash in on your option.

Sure you don't want to reconsider?

Yep I'll have a piece of that action too. Very generous odds from SF ... if I understand them which I probably don't!

[WhiteXmas]

Evening WIB. How are you today? Just wondering if you thought the CET could be totally thrown off because of developments towards the end of the month. Anything worth noting where you are? 14.5C here... humidity 80%..quite stuffy here.. I think Britain will see quite a bit of rain next week, followed by a notable change in temperature. A change is a-comin' I feel

Oh also guys. Anyone there wanting a forecast ofr where they are, I'll have a shot at it if oyu would like . Just hoping to build a good reputation here

[osmposm]

........You can quote me on this; this winter will be one of the coldest Britain has had for 3 or 4 decades.....

We will, WX, we will!!

And I think that merits the (?)first full-blown SATSIGS alert of the season, chaps.....where's that thread gone..?!

[The PIT]

It's certainly a mild/warm day in places.

Just worth bearing in mind that the date record for today is 25.2C. And the year that this was set? Why, 1978. The rest, as they say, is history ...!

I'll take that any day.

[WhiteXmas]

We will, WX, we will!!

And I think that merits the (?)first full-blown SATSIGS alert of the season, chaps.....where's that thread gone..?!

I'm bein a bit of a giraffe here. I'm stretching my neck and my rep to the limit!

being*

[Scorcher]

You may also have noticed given that you live pretty close to me the lack of sunshine as well and frosts are rare in October and have always been as far as I can remember and that’s 40 plus years, eek! Certainly not windy but that’s not that unusual either. Think the point I was making was that unlike a number or recent Octobers this is not following the same course. October feeling like September and September feeling like August. At times in recent years it has felt like October may as well be a summer month. Of course we have two and a half more weeks two go this month and a lot can happen it would not surprise me if we ended up with an above average month but my instinct tells me we won’t. And if I'm wrong does it really matter, I like to be right but hey sometimes I'm not.

At this stage an average or below average month is still possible but these next couple of days are not going to help the prospect of that happening. I know what you mean about September feeling August in previous years, I don't think it did this year either with no particularly high temperatures this time around, whereas last year there was a late heatwave with some very high temperatures on the 21st I think. Maybe my first post was misleading as I haven't changed my location as I've just gone back to Lancaster University, and we have actually had quite a lot of sunshine up here so far in October (not the past couple of days though). Light winds have made it feel warmer in some ways than 2005 felt at the start but we had a few cool nights at the start of this month.

[weather eater]

At this stage an average or below average month is still possible but these next couple of days are not going to help the prospect of that happening. I know what you mean about September feeling August in previous years, I don't think it did this year either with no particularly high temperatures this time around, whereas last year there was a late heatwave with some very high temperatures on the 21st I think. Maybe my first post was misleading as I haven't changed my location as I've just gone back to Lancaster University, and we have actually had quite a lot of sunshine up here so far in October (not the past couple of days though). Light winds have made it feel warmer in some ways than 2005 felt at the start but we had a few cool nights at the start of this month.

Hi Scorcher I guess it depends on what happens towards the end of the month whether or not we get a prolonged cooler period, if and that’s a big if, the GFS is near the mark in its recent runs then the last third of the month could be much cooler. I don't trust it past about 72hrs but I do have a hunch and to my mind that carries as much weight as FI model outputs. Curious about how different the weather can be in locations not far apart, Lancaster not being a long way from my location but my word we have had a lot of drab days over the last month.

[Scorcher]

It has been a little bit odd, we seemed to be in a favoured location here for the first few days of the month while areas just to the south were in cloud, although it seems the tables may have turned now! It has been cloudy for the past few days.

[Nick F]

I don't always take much notice of the MetO 6-15 day forecasts, but I believe that there is a predictable enough pattern and consistency showing in the models to say that it may well not be far off the mark. Mid next week's build of high pressure after a brief cooler incursion looks to bring average days and chilly foggy nights for a few days with a check possible to the current rises ... but a warm up to above average temps during the following weekend and through the following week looks a good probability with pressure high towards the South/SE and low to the NW. A cold incursion at end to the month can't be ruled out, but it may not be enough to offset the CET rises much, so slightly above average seems a fair bet atm IMO.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 17 Oct 2007 to Friday 26 Oct 2007:

High pressure is expected to dominate the start of this period giving mostly dry and settled weather across the UK although the far north is expected to be windier and wetter at times. At first, often clear skies will give sunshine by day but chilly nights with a risk of fog and ground frost. However, by the end of next week cloudier skies will result in milder nights but often rather grey skies by day. Temperatures near normal at first but becoming rather above normal by the end of next week. Beyond that, the best of the dry and settled weather will be across the south and east but even here some rain at times. Northern areas becoming more unsettled with rain and stronger winds. Temperatures near or above normal.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[skifreak]

Slightly off topic, but when was the last sub zero CET month and what was the value?

[Steady Easterly]

Slightly off topic, but when was the last sub zero CET month and what was the value?

I believe it was august and was just below.

[Duncan McAlister]

Slightly off topic, but when was the last sub zero CET month and what was the value?

February 1986, -1.1C. This was also the last sub-zero month for the UK as a whole, and for Scotland and it was one lousy year before I was born, leaving me with the worrying thought I may never see one in my lifetime

[Roger J Smith]

I pointed out elsewhere on the forum that if 23 Jan 1991 to 19 Feb was a month (of 28 days) it would have had a CET mean of -0.1, so that's probably the last time a month-long period had such a low average.

[Optimus Prime]

I pointed out elsewhere on the forum that if 23 Jan 1991 to 19 Feb was a month (of 28 days) it would have had a CET mean of -0.1, so that's probably the last time a month-long period had such a low average.

What was particularly notable about the 1990 and 1991 cold spells were, they were embedded in one of the two warmest years, globally on record. In fact it was particularly warm across parts of eastern Europe, Scandinavia and the North Pole which are experiencing unprecedented warmth at present. Despite that we still had a classic severe cold snap.

1988 and 1989 were also very warm for all of Europe and the Polar regions (but cold across North America)

[West is Best]

Certainly all to play for this month. If the 0z and 18z GFS were to verify the second half of the month would have a CET around 7C.

Those looking for cold pooling will be delighted to see the marked cooldown in eastern and central Europe.

Edited October 13, 2007 by West is Best

[WhiteXmas]

Certainly all to play for this month. If the 0z and 18z GFS were to verify the second half of the month would have a CET around 7C.

Those looking for cold pooling will be delighted to see the marked cooldown in eastern and central Europe.

Delighted! Especiallly because someone previously mocked my CET prediction. But that aside, this looks excellent for winter

[Duncan McAlister]

Certainly all to play for this month. If the 0z and 18z GFS were to verify the second half of the month would have a CET around 7C.

Those looking for cold pooling will be delighted to see the marked cooldown in eastern and central Europe.

The 00z is quite something, ideal cold synoptics really (but as always, at least a month too early). Glad I decided to check it this morning.