October 2007 CET

[West is Best]

Really cold last night. 1.8C at Benson so far, and 3C's widely elsewhere. So if the CET min is conservatively let's say 4C, then the CET max average would need to be 16.4C just to square up to the monthly average. Cold mins really do drag down the CET at this time of year, because no matter how warm it feels in the sun, the maxes just can't catch up.

[mk13]

Late again due to holiday - my puint for October is 10.8

[Stratos Ferric]

Really cold last night. 1.8C at Benson so far, and 3C's widely elsewhere. So if the CET min is conservatively let's say 4C, then the CET max average would need to be 16.4C just to square up to the monthly average. Cold mins really do drag down the CET at this time of year, because no matter how warm it feels in the sun, the maxes just can't catch up.

The maxes don't catch up once the days get shorter, but for now it's pretty much swings and roundabouts. The determinatiopn re overall mean to mid month on the basis of current charts is obviously down to just where the HP settles. If it does drift E - which has been my expectation for some time now - then something rather warmer should ensue.

[Nick F]

Pershore, one of the CET stations used got down to around 2°C this morning. A few more cool nights in the offing over the weekend, then a possible warm up next week as the high relaxes on tuesday to allow fronts East across the UK. High builds back again from the SW but orientates itself more to the SE, so nights perhaps not as cool next week as currently.

Interesting that yesterday's CET updates upto the 3rd had Manley 0.3C above Hadley, usually it's the other way round. Maybe the night minima affect the Hadley readings more.

[Stratos Ferric]

Pershore, one of the CET stations used got down to around 2°C this morning. A few more cool nights in the offing over the weekend, then a possible warm up next week as the high relaxes on tuesday to allow fronts East across the UK. High builds back again from the SW but orientates itself more to the SE, so nights perhaps not as cool next week as currently.

Interesting that yesterday's CET updates upto the 3rd had Manley 0.3C above Hadley, usually it's the other way round. Maybe the night minima affect the Hadley readings more.

Also very marked warming this morning. Several of the sites that I presume had overnight fog / inversions have jumped by 7-8C in the last couple of hours. As I said above, at this time of year the sun still has enough 'umph' to warm the ground fairly smartly. By 5-6 weeks hence that's far less true. Mid high teens top ends quite likely today.

[osmposm]

Late again due to holiday - my puint for October is 10.8

I had a feeling that two days late was the maximum allowed - or is it unlimited provided the due penalty is factored in?

[Stratos Ferric]

I had a feeling that two days late was the maximum allowed - or is it unlimited provided the due penalty is factored in?

10 pts per day; you can wait as long as you like.

[West is Best]

Also very marked warming this morning.

CET maxes look to have been in the range 15C to 18C. It felt warmer I thought.

Probably therefore will be an overall drop, though it's tight.

[damianslaw]

Going back todays progged synoptical evolution for the next 7 days or so, it is likely come mid month that the CET will probably be about 1 degree above the average, 1.5 degrees tops, nothing spectacular largely a result of the relatively near average minimas.

One thing is sure is that we are unlikely to record anywhere achieving higher than 21 degrees, a figure in recent octobers that we have become quite accustomed to recording at least once somewhere i.e. London.

Although it is looking like consistently above average CET maximums are likely for the foreseeable future, the figures aren't going to be anything special. This all begs the question when was the last time the highest maximum value recorded for October was lower than 21 degrees? Excuse me if we have recorded such a value so far this month but I don't think we have...

[Stratos Ferric]

Going back todays progged synoptical evolution for the next 7 days or so, it is likely come mid month that the CET will probably be about 1 degree above the average, 1.5 degrees tops, nothing spectacular largely a result of the relatively near average minimas.

One thing is sure is that we are unlikely to record anywhere achieving higher than 21 degrees, a figure in recent octobers that we have become quite accustomed to recording at least once somewhere i.e. London.

Although it is looking like consistently above average CET maximums are likely for the foreseeable future, the figures aren't going to be anything special. This all begs the question when was the last time the highest maximum value recorded for October was lower than 21 degrees? Excuse me if we have recorded such a value so far this month but I don't think we have...

Hadley didn't breach 20C last October. In 2005 it did so twice. The last occasion before that was 1-10-2002.

[West is Best]

Going back todays progged synoptical evolution for the next 7 days or so, it is likely come mid month that the CET will probably be about 1 degree above the average, 1.5 degrees tops, nothing spectacular largely a result of the relatively near average minimas.

Although it is looking like consistently above average

This is by no means certain. Despite the maxima yesterday actually recorded a sharp fall in the CET. It's currently only 0.5C above average (relative to the time of month) on Manley.

Hadley didn't breach 20C last October. In 2005 it did so twice. The last occasion before that was 1-10-2002.

Didn't quite do it yesterday. 19.3C was the highest in the UK.

[Stratos Ferric]

This is by no means certain. Despite the maxima yesterday actually recorded a sharp fall in the CET. It's currently only 0.5C above average (relative to the time of month) on Manley.

Didn't quite do it yesterday. 19.3C was the highest in the UK.

If things stay as currently progged there's a fair chance of us breaching 20 in the next week or so. Definitely looks like a warming week next week after settling a tad over the w/e and early next week, and still looks like being around 1C above par by the 10th - somewhere around 12C: and on the basis of latest projections, trending upwards by then.

[West is Best]

Definitely [...] next week

Careful!! Don't want the same mistakes as last month in assuming the warming charts will always come true!

[Stratos Ferric]

Careful!! Don't want the same mistakes as last month in assuming the warming charts will always come true!

Aaah, but you have to say that don't you? In any case, OP beat you by several days in the mock caring stakes. We do seem now to be slowly exiting our cold dip but it could all change - that always holds true. It would be quite some change to get below 10C though, particularly if - as looks quite possible - we're up at 12-12.5 by next w/e.

[West is Best]

Aaah, but you have to say that don't you? In any case, OP beat you by several days in the mock caring stakes. We do seem now to be slowly exiting our cold dip but it could all change - that always holds true. It would be quite some change to get below 10C though, particularly if - as looks quite possible - we're up at 12-12.5 by next w/e.

We're not exiting anything of the sort Stratos, or at least not demonstrably so. According to Hadley we're currently exactly average for the time of month - and that is against the old, cold, 1961-1990 mean to boot. http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

It might climb for a bit, but then may well fall afterwards. Too soon to say. In the meantime, the nightime mins are the key.

[Stratos Ferric]

We're not exiting anything of the sort Stratos, or at least not demonstrably so. According to Hadley we're currently exactly average for the time of month - and that is against the old, cold, 1961-1990 mean to boot. http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

It might climb for a bit, but then may well fall afterwards. Too soon to say. In the meantime, the nightime mins are the key.

July 15.2; -0.8: August 15.4; -0.4: September 13.8; 0.2: October (to date) 12.2; -0.0:

Well, it looks like a trend to me WiB, but then you were struggling to see what I thought was blindingly obvious on one of the winter charts I'd posted elsewhere.

To be fair, as already discussed elsewhere, whether October continues the warming line, or flips back the other way, will be interesting to see, but I still favour that by next w/e we'll be around 1C above norm.

Edited October 6, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[West is Best]

Stratos I think it's a terrible mistake to isolate a week or so (well not even that) and use it as a proof of a trend. Afterall, the second half of September was really cold relative to the mean. It's far to early to be extrapolating like that and unlike you to be quite so rash, if you don't mind my saying so. Give it time. Let's look back in the 3rd or 4th week of October and look at how the trends are seeming.

[Stratos Ferric]

Stratos I think it's a terrible mistake to isolate a week or so (well not even that) and use it as a proof of a trend. Afterall, the second half of September was really cold relative to the mean. It's far to early to be extrapolating like that and unlike you to be quite so rash, if you don't mind my saying so. Give it time. Let's look back in the 3rd or 4th week of October and look at how the trends are seeming.

I don't disagree, and I don't think I have extrapolated the trend. I've said what I THINK will happen, but conceded that we need to wait and see how the month pans out.

What was interesting about September, looking at those Hadley plots, was that we had, in terms of anomaly, the two coldest spells of the year to date. Reinterpreted, July and August, though cooler overall in terms of anomaly, had nothing so cold overall - they produced below par becasue they were copnsistently cool; September had two cold spikes, and came in just above par. Without those spikes the month would have been rather warmer. October isn't looking much different thus far, but IF we don't get any notable cold then that would be, at first principles, definite continuation of the trend; the continuation of the trend I'm hypothesising is generally average days, but with more warmer days and no notable cold spike.

[West is Best]

If things stay as currently progged there's a fair chance of us breaching 20 in the next week or so. Definitely looks like a warming week next week after settling a tad over the w/e and early next week, and still looks like being around 1C above par by the 10th - somewhere around 12C: and on the basis of latest projections, trending upwards by then.

As I've just posted in the model output thread, huge variety in outputs beyond T168. Could be interesting.

Just missed 20C yesterday Stratos http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[Roger J Smith]

Based on research analogues, watch for a strong northerly around 16-20 Oct with retrogression of the current high ... this is when there could be some near-wintry weather and a sharp drop in the CET which I think will remain in the 12 to 12.5 area until mid-month.

[TEITS]

Based on research analogues, watch for a strong northerly around 16-20 Oct with retrogression of the current high ... this is when there could be some near-wintry weather and a sharp drop in the CET which I think will remain in the 12 to 12.5 area until mid-month.

Interesting your say that Roger because I posted something similiar in the model discussion thread a few days ago although I thought this may happen a few days later.

I shall have to watch this because I find it fasinating that we use entirely different methods and yet are coming to the same conclusions.

[Stratos Ferric]

As I've just posted in the model output thread, huge variety in outputs beyond T168. Could be interesting.

Just missed 20C yesterday Stratos http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

Second half of the month will be pivotal for considerations re the lead in to winter. I suspect we will get a 20C later this week though, perhaps 2-3.

[West is Best]

We are actually currently below average ... by 0.2C

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

(And that's against the old cold mean which is another 0.2C lower)

Edited October 7, 2007 by West is Best

[Optimus Prime]

We are actually currently below average ... by 0.2C

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

(And that's against the old cold mean which is another 0.2C lower)

WIb, the 61-90 average is warmer then the 71-000 average. By 0.2c.

So against the recent average we're running just above normal. Depends whether the second half can persist the current warmth. If it does expect the anomaly to start increasing upwards fast.

[Stratos Ferric]

WIb, the 61-90 average is warmer then the 71-000 average. By 0.2c.

So against the recent average we're running just above normal. Depends whether the second half can persist the current warmth. If it does expect the anomaly to start increasing upwards fast.

This weekend has certainly not shown the slight upward nudge I'd expected, we have for once managed the rare combo of cloudy days and clear nights, but next week is undeniably mild, though depending on the vagueries of cloud it may not move that much from where we are now: even so, still think we'll be 12-12.5C by the end of next Saturday, so around 1C above the norm by then.