October 2007 CET

[WhiteXmas]

For me, this cold spell, IF it arrives could last up to 8 even 9 days so could heavily alter the outcome of the CET

[West is Best]

Class post. Poor WiB - last month he shot high and it came in low.

Oh come on, how churlish of you SF. You know as well as I do that early in September I did at least see what was coming and adjusted accordingly.

If anyone wants to see someone get something spectacularly wrong day in, day out, (apart from looking at my record in early summer!) then go and re-read the whole September CET thread. It's hard to conceive of anyone being more inaccurate than Stratos Ferric was. Get over it SF.

TEITS - thanks for your nice remarks! I'm trying to be objective and not fall into the sort of trap that Stratos has been falling into. We have to look at the charts and signals, not just apply our own preconceived ideas.

[WhiteXmas]

Oh come on, how churlish of you SF. You know as well as I do that early in September I did at least see what was coming and adjusted accordingly.

If anyone wants to see someone get something spectacularly wrong day in, day out, (apart from looking at my record in early summer!) then go and re-read the whole September CET thread. It's hard to conceive of anyone being more inaccurate than Stratos Ferric was. Get over it SF.

TEITS - thanks for your nice remarks! I'm trying to be objective and not fall into the sort of trap that Stratos has been falling into. We have to look at the charts and signals, not just apply our own preconceived ideas.

Well said WiB, good post. What are your thoughts about the ensemble showing the 17th of this month. Looks very interesting to me to say the least

[West is Best]

Well said WiB, good post. What are your thoughts about the ensemble showing the 17th of this month. Looks very interesting to me to say the least

I agree! A heck of a dip isn't it?! There's a lot of scatter after that as well, indicating all sorts of possible outcomes still. I do favour a markedly colder end to the month.

[The PIT]

No sign of Northerly to be honest.

I wouldn't be surprised of a pattern reset after the slight unsettled spell coming up. I think my 11.5C may end up being close by the end of the month. The probably deciding factor if we do return to settled conditions like now is how clear the nights are.

[kold weather]

It is quite a noteable dip at 850hpa though it does have to be said we are coming from rather high up in the first place.

As for the end of the month, its a little too early to say though the ensembles are generally suggesting a rather zonal end to the month, though they rarely pick up the true strength of high pressure cells, esp to the north at that range.

Worth noting that a lot may come down to exactly where the high places itself betwee nthe 17-20th of October. Th eGFS wants to place the core much further north which allows the cooler air to stay for longer and raises the real chances of an inversion while the ECM centers the upper high far closer to the UK and given the stat eof the jet would suggest the high would topple into europe and bring up a SE flow in the end which would bump the CET back up again even if the temps do drop from a weak slack northerly (which actually would be every bit as cool as a deep northerly at this time of year anyway.)

[West is Best]

No sign of Northerly to be honest.

It's more for me to do with the polar sourcing, which marks the dip in the 850hPa temps. The high which follows could see some low minima.

What's striking to me is that under warm 850hPa's we are pretty near average at the moment. It goes to show what a high pressure can do, even in this alleged christmas pudding.

The FI 12z is absolutely extraordinary. It's not so much whether or not it transpires as to seeing such remarkable synoptics at all. I'm convinced we're in a markedly different setup from last year. Providing the zonal trigger doesn't get pulled we could be in for a very interesting opening salvo to cold at the tail end of autumn.

[ukmoose]

WIB is referring to the CET mean against the rolling average, so he is right to say that it is average. 10.4 is the overall '71-'00 CET mean for October - 10.6C for the '61-90 mean. The daily CET mean figure you see from Manley or Hadley are set against the rolling mean, which is higher in early October (around 12C atm) than late October where the rolling mean drops for the obvious reason of it tending to get cooler in the 2nd half of the month.

Thanks, NIck for trying to explain this to me. I can appreciate that the second half of October is likely, historically, to be much cooler than the first half. However, I think this fails to factor in the "modern' climate which does not seem to the uneducated eye (ie me) to follow past trends. I can foresee that October (like last year for example) will wend its merry way not getting much cooler at all. If that's the case, October will turn out above average (again). I think it's 50 50 at the moment how the rest of the month pans out. My point, I think, is that we are more likely to get a warm end to October than a cool one meaning the CET will return higher than average (again).

Octobers nowadays do not seem capable of delivering the minus 3 night time temperatures of a few years ago which led to the second half of the month off-setting the warm days of the first half.

I do appreciate the rolling average criteria but I also tend to use past experience as a guide and that tells me that it will be another warm October. We shall see.

Thanks again.

Moose

[Mammatus]

Biding my time on this one. Very very hard to tell what's happening with the high, which could determine the first 10 days.

If I do then 14.9C for me please.

Then

However, if the GFS is right we're in for a hot opening fortnight - lots of 25C's likely and I reckon a 30C is better than evens. So it's going to look pretty high to start with!

September CET will be 15.4C

15.2C: Stratos Ferric

15.2C: Village Plank

15.3C: Kentish Man

15.3C: Thundery Wintry Showers

15.4C: West Is Best

15.4C: Snowingman

15.5C: Optimus Prime

15.5C: Duncan McAlister

15.8C: Rodger J Smith

15.9C: Reef

17C: Craig Evans

Actual September CET:

Hadley ~ 13.8C

Manley 13.9C

Am I missing something: wasn't his forecast 15.4? As is often the case, those who actually nailed it (if it's 13.8, then Rollo, Tribe 3000) are the least vocal.

Yes

Stephen, the Richard you see is the Richard who got September right.

I don't like quoting past posts, but some have short memories.

Back to the this month and within the reliable timeframe temperatures look set to rocket well above normal. 22C possible by day and mins of 9 by night. The next 5 days could have a CET of 15.5C :o Would really need to be a potent northerly blast to bring down the October CET during the final 10 days back to average or below average. This is of course possible. Last month the CET dropped away during the second half.

Mammatus

Edited October 11, 2007 by Mammatus

[West is Best]

Thanks, NIck for trying to explain this to me. I can appreciate that the second half of October is likely, historically, to be much cooler than the first half. However, I think this fails to factor in the "modern' climate which does not seem to the uneducated eye (ie me) to follow past trends. I can foresee that October (like last year for example) will wend its merry way not getting much cooler at all.

Not even Stratos Ferric in his recent wildest moments would want to take up the cudgel on your behalf on this one.

Any given October could theoretically produce a warmer second half than first half, though I'm not sure if it's actually happened. But I'm afraid that unless you are suggesting that global warming is going to halt the sun getting lower in the northern hemisphere sky we will continue to see winters cooler than summers.

Edited October 11, 2007 by West is Best

[ukmoose]

Not even Stratos Ferric in his recent wildest moments would want to take up the cudgel on your behalf on this one.

Any given October could theoretically produce a warmer second half than first half, though I'm not sure if it's actually happened. But I'm afraid that unless you are suggesting that global warming is going to halt the sun getting lower in the northern hemisphere sky we will continue to see winters cooler than summers.

I am suggesting, WIB, that autumns and winters are becoming warmer than they once were. Now how can I prove that to you?

Let me think about that one...

Moose

[West is Best]

I don't like quoting past posts, but some have short memories. :o

Mammatus - I think the point was not that I incorrectly predicted it from August but that once a synoptic trend emerged I may have spotted it and then stuck with it. I'm surprised to see you quoting about short memories. Perhaps you need a little refresher yourself? In response to my suggestion that sub-14C was possible it was yourself who said this was utter dross and nonsense, that sub-14C was 'out of the question'.

Unless you're reading the charts upside down WiB I'd agree with the first part of your final sentence, but definitely not the last. Granted, it's in FI, but strictly going with what we've got projected, the final week is a warming week. 850s in the last 3-4 days are in the range 10-15C.

I completely agree with this Stratos Ferric. Some folk are looking for cold that just isn't there. [...] In fact the models continually illustrate a possible Bartlett appearing during the last week of September [...] [WIB 'sub 14C now possible']

What nonsense and dross, I'd put a bet on with you now that we definately don't see below 14C CET for September. The models continually show as stated above very mild/warm temps in the CET zone [...] 14.5C+ this month without any question.

Mammatus

p.s. How's your Bartlett doing?

The key about last month was seeing what was coming. From 10th Sept onwards I acknowledged I'd got it wrong and then stuck with the cooldown despite the desperate comments from you and SF:

Well if the 0z GFS verifies then we're in for a real autumnal cooldown from end of the week onwards. Could be a month of very marked contrasts, and a sharp fall away in the CET is a distinct possibility. Almost anything could happen, but with the jet kicking south I still would by no means rule out a below average month.

Good morning Stu.

I think the next 7 days should see a fairly considerable fall off. We lose the high maxima at the same time as getting some pretty low minima.

We might very well still get a below average month.

That's a very bold call I must say. After today it'll be a notch down on the 15.4C because of last night's minima (The Pit - yes I tried to check out the CET stations and they seemed pretty low).

But to say you can't see us getting lower than a drop of around 0.8C with a whole half of the month to go (15th today and 15 to go from tomorrow), at this time of year too, is I personally think risky.

The likeliest figure from here ought to be around 14C, with a centigrade above or below being the sort of range that's most likely.

Charlotte, we're currently 0.7C above for the time of month which isn't a huge amount. I reckon we'll possibly be at 15.2C on Manley overnight, otherwise as you say 15.3C. Then after Sunday's possible nudge up (though probably stable) it'll fall away sharply next week. We would expect to lose a full degree anyway during the second half of the month if you look at the graphs: http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0709.htm

I reckon we could easily lose a degree by next weekend to leave the figure at around 14.3C with a full week to go. Edit - actually I think that may be too high. Just running through things I could see us being on 14C by end of next Saturday. I think you may be under-estimating just how 'fresh' this coming week is going to be?!

By the way, although you are citing 12C as low I can see some CET 24 hr periods next week being in single figures.

OK - I'll wager you that by end of next Saturday we'll be below 14.4C? Deal? lol! I actually think we'll be very close to 14C itself by then, so it will all be down to the final week, but I can easily see us hitting the 13C's from here.

We did indeed lose 0.2C yesterday so the CET is 15.2C at the midpoint. Today may hold up as the mins were not that low (although they were much lower far south out of the zone).

Should see a substantial fall off through next week as those low minima once again start to bite. I'm fairly confident we'll be below 14.4C by this time next week, with the final figure heading into the 13's by the close on the latest model outputs.

I am suggesting, WIB, that autumns and winters are becoming warmer than they once were. Now how can I prove that to you?

Let me think about that one...

Moose

Well you could try the CET. And you'd find that September wasn't. But you also seem to be suggesting that October shouldn't get cooler as the month goes on which is, shall we say, 'interesting' ...

Edited October 11, 2007 by West is Best

[ukmoose]

Mammatus - I think the point was not that I incorrectly predicted it from August but that once a synoptic trend emerged I may have spotted it and then stuck with it. I'm surprised to see you quoting about short memories. Perhaps you need a little refresher yourself? In response to my suggestion that sub-14C was possible it was yourself who said this was utter dross and nonsense, that sub-14C was 'out of the question'.

p.s. How's your Bartlett doing? :o

The key about last month was seeing what was coming. From 10th Sept onwards I acknowledged I'd got it wrong and then stuck with the cooldown despite the desperate comments from you and SF:

Well you could try the CET. And you'd find that September wasn't. But you also seem to be suggesting that October shouldn't get cooler as the month goes on which is, shall we say, 'interesting' ...

WIB, I'm suggesting that the October CET will average out above the long term mean. Not as high as last year's, what 13? but a degree or so. Let's see...

Moose

[Mammatus]

Mammatus - I think the point was not that I incorrectly predicted it from August but that once a synoptic trend emerged I may have spotted it and then stuck with it. I'm surprised to see you quoting about short memories. Perhaps you need a little refresher yourself? In response to my suggestion that sub-14C was possible it was yourself who said this was utter dross and nonsense, that sub-14C was 'out of the question'.

Yes (Below), but 'I' stuck with my guestimate all the way through and didn't change it three times along with the changing synoptics My point is Richard, your 15.4C prediction for the September CET was far out from the actual reality/truth. Hadley finished on 13.8C and Manley on 13.9C. So why post this to SP? "Stephen, the Richard you see is the Richard who got September right".

Two weeks ago you said sub 14C was possible which I completely disagreed with at the time.

Mammatus

Moving on,

I agree Kold with regards to where the High Pressure cell places itself 17th - 20th of October. I'd perhaps go with the ECM with the HP slap bang over us for a few days, then with the jet kicking into second gear then high topples into Europe giving UK southeasterlies. I would prefer the GFS version with the core much further north.

Mammatus

Edited October 11, 2007 by Mammatus

[West is Best]

Because from 10th Sept I did Mammatus, despite your silly remarks that sub 14C was utter dross and out of the question. Sorry to remind you of the painful truth. Oh, did I forget to ask, how's your Bartlett?

As for October, no idea what's going to happen from here at the moment. Anything is possible.

Edited October 11, 2007 by West is Best

[Mammatus]

Because from 10th Sept I did Mammatus, despite your silly remarks that sub 14C was utter dross and out of the question. Sorry to remind you of the painful truth. Oh, did I forget to ask, how's your Bartlett? :o

As for October, no idea what's going to happen from here at the moment. Anything is possible.

Yes I got it wrong Richard.

You dont get anything wrong though because you change your prediction frequently to coincide with the synoptics and then compliment yourself to SP! Pat on the back

As for October, anything is possible as I explained above.

Mammatus

[Osbourne One-Nil]

despite your silly remarks that sub 14C was utter dross and out of the question.

Less of the "silly remarks" type comment please Richard. I'm sure many are put off posting by unnecessary comments like that.

[Stratos Ferric]

Because from 10th Sept I did Mammatus, despite your silly remarks that sub 14C was utter dross and out of the question. Sorry to remind you of the painful truth. Oh, did I forget to ask, how's your Bartlett?

As for October, no idea what's going to happen from here at the moment. Anything is possible.

Well, somethiongs are more possible than others WiB. I am enjoying the start of the seasonal soap opera which is the 'cold prick-tease depression'; recent winters suggest that nineteen out of twenty cats prefer a mild outcome to a nor'easter. Who knows, perhaps this winter will be different. I'm sure it's the GFS equivalent of a loss-leader: put something interesting in the charts to keep people watching.

Has anyone defined intense northerly yet by the way.

Nearly SATSIGs time. This year we need to work a bit more on our acronyms, NAO, QBO etc.

For me, this cold spell, IF it arrives could last up to 8 even 9 days so could heavily alter the outcome of the CET

We have hardly have a cold spell last that long - even in the depths of winter - for the past decade. On a scale from 0-10 what's the numeric equivalent of 'if' x 'could'...

Not even Stratos Ferric in his recent wildest moments would want to take up the cudgel on your behalf on this one.

Any given October could theoretically produce a warmer second half than first half, though I'm not sure if it's actually happened. But I'm afraid that unless you are suggesting that global warming is going to halt the sun getting lower in the northern hemisphere sky we will continue to see winters cooler than summers.

WiB, I see nothing unreasonable in the suggestion that it might not get 'much cooler'. I'm not saying it will happen, but I don't think the original assertion is unreasonable, not least because Eddie produced some good numbers further up which,m if I remember rightly, suggested a warmer H2 to be a 1:7 event - haven't checked so I might be wrong - so it's not really that outlandish.

You're coming across as a bit rattled tonight WiB; sure you don't mean to, but that's how it seems from here. I do think you should be caerful citing lots of comments from September, after all your starting bid was rather, well...never mind, there's always this month.

[SP1986]

SF in my eyes in intense northerly most contain below -10C air, at least 30mph northerly winds, and must have a longevity of 3 days. In other words, we dont get them.

[Nick F]

SF in my eyes in intense northerly most contain below -10C air, at least 30mph northerly winds, and must have a longevity of 3 days. In other words, we dont get them.

Depends what time of year it is really IMO, in October it is probably unlikely that sub -10C 850mb air would get as far S as Scotland in a Nerly flow so early in the season, so an 'intense' Nerly in october would probably be -5C 850mb getting as far South as the South coast - which is probably in itself not common in October. Mid-Nov onwards then yes, sub -10C as far as the South coast would be a good bench mark for a potent Nerly. Though times are a changin' so the benchmark will probably have to be raised now.

[TEITS]

Yes I got it wrong Richard.

You dont get anything wrong though because you change your prediction frequently to coincide with the synoptics and then compliment yourself :o to SP! Pat on the back

As for October, anything is possible as I explained above.

Mammatus

Lets be fair to WIB he has already stated that he changed his prediction from 10th September onwards and although many disagreed with his prediction it did actually turn out to be right.

I would also disagree that he changed his mind to coincide with the synoptics because lets be honest the models can only be reliably used up to 7 days which would only take us to mid september. So lets give Richard the credit he deserves because he accurately predicted the CET for the remainder of the month.

This forum would be so much better if some admitted they get it wrong at times and have the decency to give out praise. I don't know what it is but for some reason we are very quick to point out when members forecasts were wrong but very slow in praising them when they get it right. As many will know in the past I have often disagreed with WIB which has resulted in many arguments but im always fair in life which is why I believe Richard deserves some praise and IMO is one of the better forecasters on NW.

[stormforce 10]

Lets be fair to WIB he has already stated that he changed his prediction from 10th September onwards and although many disagreed with his prediction it did actually turn out to be right.

I would also disagree that he changed his mind to coincide with the synoptics because lets be honest the models can only be reliably used up to 7 days which would only take us to mid september. So lets give Richard the credit he deserves because he accurately predicted the CET for the remainder of the month.

This forum would be so much better if some admitted they get it wrong at times and have the decency to give out praise. I don't know what it is but for some reason we are very quick to point out when members forecasts were wrong but very slow in praising them when they get it right. As many will know in the past I have often disagreed with WIB which has resulted in many arguments but im always fair in life which is why I believe Richard deserves some praise and IMO is one of the better forecasters on NW.

teits i didnt think you were an argumentative person, i thought you wre a fairly camp guy sittin by your computer smoking your marlboro and watching for potential easterlies.

[SP1986]

As many will know in the past I have often disagreed with WIB which has resulted in many arguments but im always fair in life which is why I believe Richard deserves some praise and IMO is one of the better forecasters on NW.

I remember well, that was when WIB frequented the milder options. I see a correlation here

I havent changed my CET prediction once, and most of them have been absolutely dire, woeful guesses, but theres no real skill in guessing what the CET will be, it's about 95% guess, 5% informed judgement, so even if I ever got the CET right which Im pretty sure I wont, as im not such a good forecaster; and even if I was, I would not expect praise for it - its only a little bit of fun afterall.

WIB is a decent man Im sure and probably a very charming person to know personally, however I'm rather confused and bewildered by the warm-cold-warm-cold-realist yo yo-ing, I dont get it to be honest..

[TEITS]

teits i didnt think you were an argumentative person, i thought you wre a fairly camp guy sittin by your computer smoking your marlboro and watching for potential easterlies.

Im not really which is the reason for my post.

Im just trying to say if some admitted they get it wrong and were more willing to say well done then less arguments would appear on this forum.

These are the reasons why I don't often make CET predictions or post my forecasts anymore because I became fed up with the arguments. I just prefer to sit here smoking my Richmond Superkings and wait for the E,lys .

[TEITS]

I remember well, that was when WIB frequented the milder options. I see a correlation here

I havent changed my CET prediction once, and most of them have been absolutely dire, woeful guesses, but theres no real skill in guessing what the CET will be, it's about 95% guess, 5% informed judgement, so even if I ever got the CET right which Im pretty sure I wont, as im not such a good forecaster; and even if I was, I would not expect praise for it - its only a little bit of fun afterall.

WIB is a decent man Im sure and probably a very charming person to know personally, however I'm rather confused and bewildered by the warm-cold-warm-cold-realist yo yo-ing, I dont get it to be honest..

Im pretty sure Stephen, WIB wasn't expecting praise but im sure he wasn't expecting some of the posts on this thread either. Im just trying to be fair here and give out the due credit which I believe Richard deserves.

As for predicting the CET I would actually say it's around 60% guess and 40% forecasting skill but of course these percentages change depending on when you make your prediction.

Lastly I understand WIB change of heart because in a way I can relate to this. During last winter nearly every month I predicted well below average temps because this was purely based on hope alone. Now Richard is well known to prefer warmer weather but recently I believe he is taking a more objective look at our current weather patterns which is why we are seeing a change in his predictions.