October 2007 CET

[West is Best]

Thanks Dave. You are indeed right.

I think we just need to try and study what's happening not what we want to happen.

October, for instance, is interesting. We may well end up above average. But the synoptics are remarkable. The latest 0z shows extraordinary progression with the jet far south of the UK and a building easterly. This is not a pattern we have seen much in recent years.

As for Mammatus' point ... I've regularly admitted getting winter 2005/6 and this summer utterly wrong. Indeed, I suggested it would be difficult to conceive anything more inaccurate. Remember my 'summer starts on Thursday' stuff. Argh The key thing is surely not to be intransigent, but to admit mistakes and adapt if necessary?

So in my view - the synoptics are amazing at the moment. Give us another month like this and people will start getting excited. Let's just hope it doesn't go wrong!

Edited October 12, 2007 by West is Best

[The PIT]

Well CET cetianly be taking a bump up for the next few days with night time mins close to the normal day time max's in some cases. Today being a good example for us anyway.

[Stratos Ferric]

Well CET cetianly be taking a bump up for the next few days with night time mins close to the normal day time max's in some cases. Today being a good example for us anyway.

n

Indeed, even the overnight will bump things up by 0.1C today. Astonishingly mild here this morning.

...But the synoptics are remarkable. The latest 0z shows extraordinary progression with the jet far south of the UK and a building easterly. This is not a pattern we have seen much in recent years.

...

You might care to put said chart up WiB, because I can see nothing extraordinary. FOR SURE, the jet is lower energy than last year, and is less stable - hence the persistent blocking - but what we have is a high amplitude jet, not a jet displaced persistently south of norm, as was the case over summer. If anything, in layman's terms, the pattern we had over summer was more reminiscent of autumn; what we have now is more reminiscent of an old fashioned spring. A jet with slow moving high amplitude waves can be expected to allow for some occasional polar pulses, but what's there is a long way off at present, and as I said last night, GFS has a recent history of overplaying these. The one upside this year is that the SSTs in the Atlantic are a photo-negative of recent years, so I would have more hope of some of these coming to fruition this year - but even so, I wouldn't be banking on it.

[weather eater]

Can anyone tell me what the point of this thread is? Seems to be a bit, err well pointless. I mean I guess the CET for the month will be about average give or take a little bit. Some days will be above average some below, this time of year especially so. Unless of course we are comparing it to the little ice age in which case I guess we are up or against the medieval warm period then we are possibly down, of course without accurate records this is just a guess. But then so is every prediction on this thread, seems to be a lot of bickering and eye scratching for what should be fun guesses.

[West is Best]

Stratos ... you really don't think these charts are remarkable ...? I'm not talking about strength, but alignment. If this carries on into winter we will be in for a cold one. Such charts are more akin to 1978/9 than your even larger teapot:

Seriously, in all honesty, 'interesting', no?

Edited October 12, 2007 by West is Best

[Stratos Ferric]

No more or less than I said, a slow moving high amplitude wave. We have had similar events in recent years, though they are uncommon.

The other obvious caution is that they have tended to occur FAR more frequently in theory than in practice, and often a long way out in the models. I think you're getting a tad desperate if you're going to hang an argument on model runs around two weeks hence: as they might put it in Glasgow, it's hanging on a shaky peg.

Interesting if it were to come off, but such considerations are an awful long way away; and in the meantime it's definitely very mild. In fact, I clearly owe you an apology, but I am wtrong again - it looks like being EVEN MILDER than I expected!

[Roger J Smith]

My theory is that the Russians have a weather machine but it's broken down and nobody knows how to fix it.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

My theory is that the Russians have a weather machine but it's broken down and nobody knows how to fix it.

I've had a word with my mate Robert F of IAN. He has sent over a top tech team to crank up the Easterly machine. Unfortunately he doesn't think it will arrive in time to get to my 10.6C cet but said 11 to 11.5 should be achieved....but watch for early Nov

BFTP

[Weather-history]

Back in October 1921 up to 11th

CET maximum average: 21.2C

CET minimum average: 11.8C

[Stratos Ferric]

Can anyone tell me what the point of this thread is? Seems to be a bit, err well pointless. I mean I guess the CET for the month will be about average give or take a little bit. Some days will be above average some below, this time of year especially so. Unless of course we are comparing it to the little ice age in which case I guess we are up or against the medieval warm period then we are possibly down, of course without accurate records this is just a guess. But then so is every prediction on this thread, seems to be a lot of bickering and eye scratching for what should be fun guesses.

You're new aren't you?

My take on N-W is as follows...

Getting excited and worked up about what might or might not happen is far more exciting than the actual weather tends to be, particularly nowadays if you're a (rabid) fan of cold weather. If N-W were constrained to raw facts it would all be rather dull. I think it's rather like the mentality that draws people to bull fights and F1 and Indy racing: it's not only the result that matters, it's also the potential for carnage along the way.

Of course I might be wildly out.

I've had a word with my mate Robert F of IAN. He has sent over a top tech team to crank up the Easterly machine. Unfortunately he doesn't think it will arrive in time to get to my 10.6C cet but said 11 to 11.5 should be achieved....but watch for early Nov

BFTP

Oooh I wouldn't be too sure. You have FI and WiB on your side. Not Thierry Henri and John Terry admittedly, but better than a roll of the Eye's wallpaper I'd say, even a roll full of his well considered scribbles!

[Stratos Ferric]

I've had a word with my mate Robert F of IAN. .......but watch for early Nov

BFTP

1 - beware people called Robert. Arguably second only to people named Ken, and third to Conor, for deserving a red flashing warning triangle thingy around the name.

2 - early November which year?

[weather eater]

You're new aren't you?

My take on N-W is as follows...

Getting excited and worked up about what might or might not happen is far more exciting than the actual weather tends to be, particularly nowadays if you're a (rabid) fan of cold weather. If N-W were constrained to raw facts it would all be rather dull. I think it's rather like the mentality that draws people to bull fights and F1 and Indy racing: it's not only the result that matters, it's also the potential for carnage along the way.

Of course I might be wildly out.

Oooh I wouldn't be too sure. You have FI and WiB on your side. Not Thierry Henri and John Terry admittedly, but better than a roll of the Eye's wallpaper I'd say, even a roll full of his well considered scribbles!

Not strictly speaking I made about a thousand posts under a different name but got bored with all the petty squabbles mainly about FI charts that never came to past and some people eluding that they had some sort of other weather predicting knowledge but with no substance to support there ideas, they are quick to crow when it comes off but disappear when they don’t. I call that luck or lack of it. I have moved this year so thought I would come back and for a couple of other reasons. 1. I can't resist it and 2. I really do think we have had an interesting summer and I do think we are in a slightly different pattern than of late and it will be interesting to see what happens. I don’t subscribe to the point of view that we have entered a new phase in the larger sense or that AGW is not happening I very much think it is. I have been surprised by Richard having read a lot of his posts in the past, that he is re-evaluating the issue of AGW; surely the scientific method is to corroborate the evidence then do it again and again. One short period of slightly cooler temps (and that’s debatable) can not verify the veracity or otherwise of AGW. On saying that he's a smart guy and it’s always a pleasure to read his posts.

For the record I think we will fall in just below the CET average for October whatever that is. You can evaluate lots of evidence re the weather but sometimes just trusting your senses can work fairly well. This autumn defiantly has a different feel, what that might mean for the winter ahead is anybody guess and may come to nowt. People need to remember that even if it does feel like an autumn of there youth it does not mean the winter ahead will be cold; most of them in the past were pretty dull as I recall.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

You're new aren't you?

My take on N-W is as follows...

Getting excited and worked up about what might or might not happen is far more exciting than the actual weather tends to be,

Of course I might be wildly out.

Oooh I wouldn't be too sure. You have FI and WiB on your side. Not Thierry Henri and John Terry admittedly, but better than a roll of the Eye's wallpaper I'd say, even a roll full of his well considered scribbles!

Agree with one and SF you crack me up My CET 10.6 still very achievable IMO but at present I would have preferred to be between 11 and 11.5. I have a red triangle thingy around my name so don't follow me!!

BFTP

Edited October 12, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Kentish Man]

Can anyone tell me what the point of this thread is? Seems to be a bit, err well pointless.

This thread seems to become more popular when the weather is uneventful and quiet as it has been so far this autumn.

Anyway Hadley stands at 12.3C today (Oct 1-11)

[stormforce 10]

Im not really which is the reason for my post.

Im just trying to say if some admitted they get it wrong and were more willing to say well done then less arguments would appear on this forum.

These are the reasons why I don't often make CET predictions or post my forecasts anymore because I became fed up with the arguments. I just prefer to sit here smoking my Richmond Superkings and wait for the E,lys .

hi teits. humility is the key. you keep posting buddy i enjoy reading them and im sure your a well respected member on this forum. so lets have some easterlies this winter and lets have some fun.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Ok, it's nice when people get on. Once I had a friend, until they moved to Australia. Still can't work out why I used to see him in town all the time. Anyway, it really would be much better if we just discussed the fascinating topic of October's CET and tried not to deviate too much. As Sian Lloyd once said, "when you're tired of talking about October's CET rather than just waiting and seeing what it actually is, you're tired of life". Or something like that.

[Scorcher]

For the record I think we will fall in just below the CET average for October whatever that is. You can evaluate lots of evidence re the weather but sometimes just trusting your senses can work fairly well. This autumn defiantly has a different feel, what that might mean for the winter ahead is anybody guess and may come to nowt. People need to remember that even if it does feel like an autumn of there youth it does not mean the winter ahead will be cold; most of them in the past were pretty dull as I recall.

I only thing different I have noticed about this October so far compared to previous Octobers is the lack of wind. It has been relatively calm and rainfall has been on the low side. Also the night-time minima have started to rise- certainly in my area we haven't been particularly close to a frost so far and the next couple of nights look like being very mild. In fact the minimum temperature last night in Manchester was 14C compared to an average of around 8C. That is quite a difference. I think we could well see a repeat over the next 3 or 4 nights which means the CET is only going to be going one way for the next few days. I don't think there has been any indication so far in October that things have been different from recent years temperature-wise. Look at October 2005- there weren't really any exceptional maximum temperatures in that month but the temperatures were consistently above average particularly at night.

[West is Best]

Some funny posts on this last page, and some very interesting insights too. It's nice when we get along!

For the record I suspect we will indeed stay above average. It's just that the synoptics look very interesting to me at the moment. Let's just say it's not exactly zonal - as indeed Scorcher notes with regard to the lack of wind. If nothing else it's giving us a stunning autumn for colour with the leaves holding on.

[weather eater]

I only thing different I have noticed about this October so far compared to previous Octobers is the lack of wind. It has been relatively calm and rainfall has been on the low side. Also the night-time minima have started to rise- certainly in my area we haven't been particularly close to a frost so far and the next couple of nights look like being very mild. In fact the minimum temperature last night in Manchester was 14C compared to an average of around 8C. That is quite a difference. I think we could well see a repeat over the next 3 or 4 nights which means the CET is only going to be going one way for the next few days. I don't think there has been any indication so far in October that things have been different from recent years temperature-wise. Look at October 2005- there weren't really any exceptional maximum temperatures in that month but the temperatures were consistently above average particularly at night.

You may also have noticed given that you live pretty close to me the lack of sunshine as well and frosts are rare in October and have always been as far as I can remember and that’s 40 plus years, eek! Certainly not windy but that’s not that unusual either. Think the point I was making was that unlike a number or recent Octobers this is not following the same course. October feeling like September and September feeling like August. At times in recent years it has felt like October may as well be a summer month. Of course we have two and a half more weeks two go this month and a lot can happen it would not surprise me if we ended up with an above average month but my instinct tells me we won’t. And if I'm wrong does it really matter, I like to be right but hey sometimes I'm not.

Edited October 12, 2007 by weather eater

[Stratos Ferric]

Some funny posts on this last page, and some very interesting insights too. It's nice when we get along!

For the record I suspect we will indeed stay above average. It's just that the synoptics look very interesting to me at the moment. Let's just say it's not exactly zonal - as indeed Scorcher notes with regard to the lack of wind. If nothing else it's giving us a stunning autumn for colour with the leaves holding on.

Certainly not zonal, but in these situations - and we keep saying it - much hinges on where HP settles: the more or less recurrent pattern in recent years is for HP to take up, and maintain, a potentially cold (for the UK) location only at the flanks of winter.

If things stay as they are then this year could either be surprisingly cool, or disappointingly mild. That said, the longer we stay settled, the more I'd favour zonality come winter.

Expecting three big bounds upwards now in CET: certainly going to get 0.2C today, and I suspect at least 0.3 sat + sunday, so that come Monday we may be closer to 13 than 12. if so it would be remarkable indeed to get back below mean, and perhaps even reasonably close to it.

[The PIT]

A barmy 20C up up and away goes the CET.

[West is Best]

Stratos what surprises me is that we're not about 2C or 3C higher given the synoptics we've had. This has been a pattern since around May. The warmer setups don't seem to me to be cutting the same mustard. In particular minima seem to have been a lot more potent.

By the way, I would just be a tad cautious about where this month is going. I still think we're in a pattern transition, and that overall we could be heading for a sharply colder end of the month.

Here's a daring wager I'll have with you: autumn will be below average. Fancy the bet?! I'm wanting to extend to autumn because I'm not certain all the affects of the change will be felt through this month.

Edited October 12, 2007 by West is Best

[The PIT]

Stratos what surprises me is that we're not about 2C or 3C higher given the synoptics we've had. This has been a pattern since around May. The warmer setups don't seem to me to be cutting the same mustard. In particular minima seem to have been a lot more potent.

By the way, I would just be a tad cautious about where this month is going. I still think we're in a pattern transition, and that overall we could be heading for a sharply colder end of the month.

Here's a daring wager I'll have with you: autumn will be below average. Fancy the bet?! I'm wanting to extend to autumn because I'm not certain all the affects of the change will be felt through this month.

Well for us max's are about three above normal while the min was (alas no longer) average. That's now sneaking back up but it is nice to see them return to average or just below average for the last few months.

Edited October 12, 2007 by The PIT

[weather eater]

A barmy 20C up up and away goes the CET.

Just had a look at a web cam of Sheffield and its looks sunny, here on the other side of the Pennines while not cold it is dank and misty and distinctly not sunny, a tad lower here no doubt.

[West is Best]

A barmy 20C up up and away goes the CET.

It's certainly a mild/warm day in places.

Just worth bearing in mind that the date record for today is 25.2C. And the year that this was set? Why, 1978. The rest, as they say, is history ...!