June CET

[eddie]

I noticed there wasn't a June CET thread yet so I hope nobody minds me starting one. I will be on holiday from tomorrow so I need to get my entry in early

June CET facts

1971-2000 Average: 14.1C

1978-2007 Average: 14.4C

The warmest recorded June was 1846 at 18.2C

The coldest recorded June was 1645 at 11.5C

There hasn't been a June that finished in the top 20 since 1976 (17.0C).

I think we are overdue a warm one so my guess is 16.5C

[SteveB]

May has well and truly screwed my Monthly predictions, going to be over 1c out .

Anyway lets have stab at June. Hmmmm I would love it to be warm, but I shall go for a decidedly average Month just on the higher side.

15.1c

[grab my graupel]

I noticed there wasn't a June CET thread yet so I hope nobody minds me starting one. I will be on holiday from tomorrow so I need to get my entry in early

No that's fine eddie

I'm going to have a stab at this and go for 15.3c

Brian

[Gavin P]

My suspcion is we'll have quite a wet month for England and Wales, drier for the north and temps probably coming in above average. A very thundery month, maybe?

[reef]

I think we are overdue a warm one

Interesting to hear you say that. The last 5 Junes have all been 1.0C above average or more:

2003: 16.1C

2004: 15.5C

2005: 15.3C

2006: 15.9C

2007: 15.1C

If anything we're overdue a cool one.

Edited May 22, 2008 by reef

[SP1986]

I think 14.6C, I can see low pressure and wet weather dominating for most of the month, perhaps with a more northeasterly element. So quite cool but still above average

[richarddx7]

14.1

[eddie]

Interesting to hear you say that. The last 5 Junes have all been 1.0C above average or more:

2003: 16.1C

2004: 15.5C

2005: 15.3C

2006: 15.9C

2007: 15.1C

If anything we're overdue a cool one.

My view is based on the following data....Just seems like we are well overdue a top 20 finish for June.

Years since top 20 month recorded.

Jan: 1

Apr: 1

Jul: 2

Sep: 2

Oct: 2

Aug: 4

Nov: 5

Feb: 6

Mar: 8

May: 10 (Seems likely this month will be in the top 20 though)

Dec: 20

Jun: 32

[Bottesford]

A >16c one would be good with a cooldown in the last week when I'm in East Europe!

Probably not likely though! Shall await giving my predication/guess until next week.

[Eugene]

I think we are overdue a warm one so my guess is 16.5C

Not sure i agree with that June 2003 was exceptionally warm, June 2000 was warm... June 2005/2006 were very warm, we are infact overdue a cool June, haven't had one in a long time.

[summer blizzard]

Well i actually think that June will essentially repeat the pattern observed during May, with a very warm first half, and a cooler second.

With this in mind, i think the likely range is 13.8C to 15.3C, so i will go with 14.6C, 0.5C above average.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think 14.6C, I can see low pressure and wet weather dominating for most of the month, perhaps with a more northeasterly element. So quite cool but still above average

Bugger, I concur exactly.....I think very close to average so 14.2C. I wanted that one but hey let's be different.

BFTP

[osmposm]

I'll have 14.5^oC, please.

Ossie

[shuggee]

My view is based on the following data....Just seems like we are well overdue a top 20 finish for June.

Years since top 20 month recorded.

Jan: 1

Apr: 1

Jul: 2

Sep: 2

Oct: 2

Aug: 4

Nov: 5

Feb: 6

Mar: 8

May: 10 (Seems likely this month will be in the top 20 though)

Dec: 20

Jun: 32

That's really interesting eddie - food for thought. I'll leave it til the end of next week :lol:

[Snowly does it]

13.4 please

[Uncle_Barty]

Interesting to hear you say that. The last 5 Junes have all been 1.0C above average or more:

2003: 16.1C

2004: 15.5C

2005: 15.3C

2006: 15.9C

2007: 15.1C

If anything we're overdue a cool one.

And with continued northern blocking.. if that carries on (and also bear in mind the year ends in 8 )

I'll go for 13.0.

Would be pleased to be proved wrong though

[Megamoonflake]

14.7C for me please

Edited May 23, 2008 by Megamoonflake

[The PIT]

I'll go for 15.1C.

Need to get my points up.

[Polar Gael]

15.4°C for me please.

[Thundery wintry showers]

My current guess is 14.8, as I'm currently envisaging a near average June as far as weather and synoptics go, but with the background global warming trend factored in.

I reserve the right to change it before the end of the month though, if I see a different pattern emerging.

June is unusual in that it showed no warming trend at all during the 20th century, and in fact some of the earlier decades had much warmer Junes than was normal at any point in the 20th century, despite the overall climate being cooler. Only since 2003 has June joined the other months in warming up, and June 2003 was easily the warmest since 1976. So perhaps not exceptionally warm in the context of the 340+ year CET record, but exceptionally warm for the 20th century.

[chionomaniac]

An above average 15.5ºC due to some warm nights.

[Scorcher]

I haven't guessed for a while, but I'm expecting a warm one, particularly after the first week. Therefore I will go for 16.3C.

[summer blizzard]

My current guess is 14.8, as I'm currently envisaging a near average June as far as weather and synoptics go, but with the background global warming trend factored in.

I reserve the right to change it before the end of the month though, if I see a different pattern emerging.

June is unusual in that it showed no warming trend at all during the 20th century, and in fact some of the earlier decades had much warmer Junes than was normal at any point in the 20th century, despite the overall climate being cooler. Only since 2003 has June joined the other months in warming up, and June 2003 was easily the warmest since 1976. So perhaps not exceptionally warm in the context of the 340+ year CET record, but exceptionally warm for the 20th century.

According to Phillip Eden, June 2006 was the warmest since 1976, Hadley is cooler.

[Jack Wales]

I think things will improve from the second week but for how long who knows? I'll go for an above average 15.6.

[snowsure]

15.0*C is my guess for June

Aim for the stars and you might hit the moon

It could be less, it could be more

my tolerance is + or - 4!