June CET

[acbrixton]

I'll second that idea. For most of us it would make little difference to the accuracy of our 'forecasts' if the cut off time was midnight on the 5th of the month let alone 0300 on the 1st. Undoubtedly someone will argue that there's plenty of time prior to the 1st of the month to get your guess in, so no leeway should be given but, hey ho.

By the way, where is Stratos Ferric these days? He rarely misses a CET punt and I haven't seen him on here for ages.

Roger was very decent in his suggested clemency; sadly I have only my own forgetfullness to blame!

Re SF well he placed a May CET punt and I sent a pm to him recently, unanswered, so I do not know. It would be unfortunate if we were to have lost such a distinguished, if intellectually severe, member.

regards

ACB

[Stu_London]

Roger was very decent in his suggested clemency; sadly I have only my own forgetfullness to blame!

I think for consistency that the same rules must apply for everyone and cannot be changed mid comp (something i am sure aCB would agree with)

I do think some interesting ideas have been raised for next time though - after all some people only get the opportunity to post late at night.

By the way, where is Stratos Ferric these days? He rarely misses a CET punt and I haven't seen him on here for ages.

I have a thoery that he was made redundant and given his assertions on the robustness of our economy has not posted to save face.

Sometimes proud men find exiting easier than admitting one was wrong

[Duncan McAlister]

It'll be interesting to see the consequences of next week's cool spell on the CET, given that it isn't much above average at the moment (although will rise a bit until Wednesday). A below average June certainly is not outwith the realms of possibility at this stage, and we haven't seen one of those for a while.

[damianslaw]

It'll be interesting to see the consequences of next week's cool spell on the CET, given that it isn't much above average at the moment (although will rise a bit until Wednesday). A below average June certainly is not outwith the realms of possibility at this stage, and we haven't seen one of those for a while.

I think this month is unlikely to see any CET days that are that far from the average, in overview its going to be a month with few if any extremes.

[Timmead]

Could someone please clarify the mean CET for June? Hadley seems to suggest something like 13.4, but I'm sure I read 14.1 somewhere on this topic. Thanks

[acbrixton]

Could someone please clarify the mean CET for June? Hadley seems to suggest something like 13.4, but I'm sure I read 14.1 somewhere on this topic. Thanks

The 1961-90 mean CET for June is 14.2, the 1971-2000 mean is 14.1.

The England Mean Temperature Series (commenced 1914) for 1961-1990 is 13.6, the England and Wales Mean Temperature Series (commenced 1961) for 1961-1990 is also 13.6.

The BBC monthly summaries (from the MO) now use the England Mean Temperature Series but summaries for earlier years have used the England and Wales Series and the 1961-1990 CET!

regards

ACB

[kold weather]

Looks like the next couple of days will see the CET take a upward turn however after that there is certainly a suggestion that a cooler set-up will occur. How cool will partly depend on cloud cover during the day and how much thereis in the overnight hours.

Edited June 7, 2008 by kold weather

[Lettucing Gutted]

It'll be interesting to see the consequences of next week's cool spell on the CET, given that it isn't much above average at the moment (although will rise a bit until Wednesday). A below average June certainly is not outwith the realms of possibility at this stage, and we haven't seen one of those for a while.

I think it is unlikely this June will be below average. For that we need a slow northern jet to allow cool troughs to buckle over us combined with a negative AO and a negative NAO to unleash the cool air from the north.

[Snowyowl9]

I think it is unlikely this June will be below average. For that we need a slow northern jet to allow cool troughs to buckle over us combined with a negative AO and a negative NAO to unleash the cool air from the north.

You havn`t seen the GFS 0z run then a greenland high/northern blocking and a cool N-ly to even cooler NE-ly with lp close by looks like my punt will be too high now and a below average June looks very possible hope July doesn`t turn out like this though this time as last July was horrid wet and cold, some fairly cool nghts recently too got down to 6.8c yesterday morning less cool last night at 9c

[The PIT]

A warm couple of days will push it up then temps back to normal by day according to Country File. Night time temps not really mentioned but I suspect below normal once the wind has died back.

Still probably get above average CET for the month which once again will probably be northerly dominated.

[Stu_London]

14.2C to the 7th

A sharp rise likely to about 15.2 by the 10th and then back to about 14.1C by the 15th.

Nothing really warm on the ensembles after the 15th, so I would say at this stage we are very likely to have a sub 15C month, with the most likely landing point being 13.8C to 14.5C

[Optimus Prime]

14.2C to the 7th

A sharp rise likely to about 15.2 by the 10th and then back to about 14.1C by the 15th.

According to my working outs;

To the

8th 14.5

9th 14.9

10th 15.1

11th 14.8

12th 14.5

13th 14.1

14th 13.7

15th 13.6

Slightly cooler then average first half looks likely. Will be some fairly widespread frosts later next week. Some places down to -2c.

[Snowly does it]

14.2C to the 7th

A sharp rise likely to about 15.2 by the 10th and then back to about 14.1C by the 15th.

Nothing really warm on the ensembles after the 15th, so I would say at this stage we are very likely to have a sub 15C month, with the most likely landing point being 13.8C to 14.5C

OK next 3 days would need to average just over 17 to achieve 15.2 by the 10th - possible/likely although Tuesday's maxes will be tempered by lower returns in the north of the zone. To get bck down to 14.1 by the 15th from there however requires 11.9 or so per day for 5 days - that looks a little low to me, and 14.3 or 14.3 a more likely spot by the 15th. I don't disagree with your landing zone though - although there's a little more room on the downside to my 13.4

[SP1986]

OK next 3 days would need to average just over 17 to achieve 15.2 by the 10th - possible/likely although Tuesday's maxes will be tempered by lower returns in the north of the zone. To get bck down to 14.1 by the 15th from there however requires 11.9 or so per day for 5 days - that looks a little low to me, and 14.3 or 14.3 a more likely spot by the 15th. I don't disagree with your landing zone though - although there's a little more room on the downside to my 13.4

I certainly think daytime returns circa 11C will be possible at some stations from the upcoming cool spell, probably not that low but safely 13C, which is still anomalously low. A below average June maybe?

[Nick H]

For those who believe in this kind of stuff (and you shouldn't), and didn't read Philip Eden's column in the Telegraph yesterday, no summer month of the 20th century ending in "8" ever produced a summer month more than 0.5C above the 30 year mean. All summers of the 20th century ending in "8" were poor.

Edited June 8, 2008 by Nick H

[Gavin P]

I think we're in with a chance at a below average June, Stephen, but it's still very early days. I definatly think we'll see quite a big downward revision on Hadley at the end of the month, though. The CET after the first three days looked a good 0.3c above what it should be.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I made party pooper statement in May that 'summer' has just been............Overall i wouldn't be surprised if it has inasmuch i think rest of June, July Aug will not bring prolonged hot weather. My 14.2 may well be generous for this month.

BFTP

[Weather-history]

A possibilty of the first half of June having a lower CET than the first half of May and the last time that happened was 1990

[Snowly does it]

If the cool spell were exended how close could June get to being cooler than May? Its happened twice before (I think) - including the year of that silly 15.2 May record.

Very very unlikely given the surge between now and Wednesday but if the cool conditions persist and Hadley does adjust downwards (Manley's current position strongly suggests so) it might be 'interesting'.

I'm quite content to be in the select group @ below average for this month (at the moment!)

In all seriousness a relatively disappointing 14 looks about a good landing place as we stand.

The cooler spell reignites the possiblity of the dip under a rolling annual 10 - however a bonechiller at 13.2 (I think) required for this - IF (big if) this were achieved I'd start to raise at least one eyebrow sub-10 carrying a top 10 Jan, a very mild May and a well above February would be pretty impressive against a backdrop of strong warming - we may have dipped under 10 however by May 3rd this year - I am not certain but around 10.01 or 10.02 seems more likely at that time.

the CET may be running above mean but for East Anglia (today and yesterday aside) it has been a cold and wet start to summer.

[Weather-history]

If the cool spell were exended how close could June get to being cooler than May? Its happened twice before (I think) - including the year of that silly 15.2 May record.

1833 and 1848 but with May as 13.4, its pushing it. Closest in the last 20 years was 1990 and 1999 when June was 1.0 degrees warmer than May.

[Eugene]

Looking at the ensembles i wonder if the curse on summer of the year ending with 8 is about to come to fruition again, there are some things in life you can't explain and the year ending with 8 curse on summer is one of them.

[Snowly does it]

1833 and 1848 but with May as 13.4, its pushing it. Closest in the last 20 years was 1990 and 1999 when June was 1.0 degrees warmer than May.

Definitely pushing it - even if my punt IS 13.4 :o

I'd say maybe a 10-15% chance looking at the ensembles, but we'll probably have a reasonable idea if its even a long shot by mid month, after this upcoming cooldown.

[reef]

Hadley recorded 16.2C on Sunday giving a running CET of 14.5C to the 8th. Today and tomorrow are going to see some serious upward movement, especially as minimas are holding up more than expected. After this we have the northerly, but the downward movement is very dependent on where the high pressure ends up.

[Stu_London]

- we may have dipped under 10 however by May 3rd this year - I am not certain but around 10.01 or 10.02 seems more likely at that time.

we didn't it was 10.02

[kold weather]

Looks like we are going to see a downward movement after tomorrow with mins getting into single figures and maxes probably averaging in the CET zone around 14-15C will ensure a slow drop will occur. Still too early to know what is going to be the outcome of this month.