June CET

[damianslaw]

Well it is looking almost certain we will end up with a near average CET for this month, continuing the trend we have seen for CET's since last August (January and May excepted).

Some cool minimas have put a dent on things. I'd be interested what Scotland's CET is, I would hazard a guess that they are recording quite a cool June with some notably low minima. Up here in Tyne and Wear this month has in all respects been decidely average.

[Geordiesnow]

Well it is looking almost certain we will end up with a near average CET for this month, continuing the trend we have seen for CET's since last August (January and May excepted).

Some cool minimas have put a dent on things. I'd be interested what Scotland's CET is, I would hazard a guess that they are recording quite a cool June with some notably low minima. Up here in Tyne and Wear this month has in all respects been decidely average.

Would it not be CST for Scotland Damian? . In all seriousness i would not be surprised if Scotland is below average as it has been quite cool/cold up there than usural. Makes you feel lucky that i am not living up there this month.

It does look like this month will be average considering the such warm start to the month - which feels like months ago.

[Scorcher]

Well it is looking almost certain we will end up with a near average CET for this month, continuing the trend we have seen for CET's since last August (January and May excepted).

What about February too? I'm not sure what point you are trying to make really, as 3 months out of 6 so far this year have been well above average. I do agree that the second half of 2007 was certainly near average though.

We would need to average 16.7C for the rest of the month for that to occur (assuming no downward adjustment at month end)

It's quite difficult to envisage any of the remaining days (except maybe Sunday at a push) reaching that level, let alone all of them.

Therefore, I would have to say that 14.1 or 14.2 remain the likely landing point (excluding month end adjustment) with any other outcome highly unlikely.

What was June 2002 officially then? The Met Office site has it as 13.9C.

[Snowly does it]

What was June 2002 officially then? The Met Office site has it as 13.9C.

14.4, 2001 was 14.3

1999 13.9

Looks like the coolest since 1999 in all likelihood - may just match 2001 though at 14.3

[Scorcher]

14.4, 2001 was 14.3

1999 13.9

Looks like the coolest since 1999 in all likelihood - may just match 2001 though at 14.3

What source is the 14.4C from? Maybe the 13.9C that the Met Office have on their site was corrected downwards at the end of June 2002. Looks like I was mistaken about the prospect of this month being warmer than 2002.

[Weather-history]

What source is the 14.4C from? Maybe the 13.9C that the Met Office have on their site was corrected downwards at the end of June 2002. Looks like I was mistaken about the prospect of this month being warmer than 2002.

You are mixing up the England & Wales mean temperature with the CET

The CET for June 2002 is 14.4

The England and Wales mean temperature for June 2002 is 13.9

The England and Wales temperature is always either the same or lower than the CET value. There has never been an instance when it was higher than the CET.

Edited June 26, 2008 by Mr_Data

[Scorcher]

You are mixing up the England & Wales mean temperature with the CET

The CET for June 2002 is 14.4

The England and Wales mean temperature for June 2002 is 13.9

The England and Wales temperature is always either the same or lower than the CET value. There has never been an instance when it was higher than the CET.

Fair enough, thanks for that.

[Kentish Man]

Hadley nudged up to 14.0C yesterday (Jun 1 - 25) which is bang on the running average for 1971 - 2000.

Given that sunshine is just above normal and rainfall a tad below it is panning out as a remarkably average month overall.

[Nick H]

So still we have to go back to the 19th century to find a summer months ending in "8" that was more than 0.5 deg C above the 30 year mean.

[damianslaw]

What about February too? I'm not sure what point you are trying to make really, as 3 months out of 6 so far this year have been well above average. I do agree that the second half of 2007 was certainly near average though.

I guess the point I was trying to make is that the fair majority of months since August last year (total of 10 months) have been near average 7 out of 10, I forgot about February. It has made a change from the period May 2006-June 2007 when appreciably above average was the general norm. I probably should have made it clear I was only comparing it too the 12 months prior to Aug 2007 (July 2007 excepted).

What was June 2002 officially then? The Met Office site has it as 13.9C.

[SP1986]

I can't win! I go for 14.6C and its still too high

It's something I have to say I did expect, I thought the the signs for an average month were obvious, but not obvious enough to get me maximum points

[reef]

Yesterday came in at 14.3C taking the rolling mean to 14.1C to the 27th on Hadley. We may see a slight increase by the end of the month, but by all accounts its looking like an average month and quite possibly the coolest June since 1999 if Hadley adjusts downwards.

[Snowly does it]

Yesterday came in at 14.3C taking the rolling mean to 14.1C to the 27th on Hadley. We may see a slight increase by the end of the month, but by all accounts its looking like an average month and quite possibly the coolest June since 1999 if Hadley adjusts downwards.

wow it must have been really close to the rounding for 14.3 to make any difference!

Today should see a 0.1 increase after a muggy night and possibly tomorrow whereas Monday looks more neutral.

14.3 before any rounding I think so 14.1 possible if it rounds down - certainly a cooler June than we are used to of late and very average in any timeframe of the CET series.

[reef]

wow it must have been really close to the rounding for 14.3 to make any difference!

Today should see a 0.1 increase after a muggy night and possibly tomorrow whereas Monday looks more neutral.

14.3 before any rounding I think so 14.1 possible if it rounds down - certainly a cooler June than we are used to of late and very average in any timeframe of the CET series.

Indeed, the actual rolling value to the 27th is 14.05C - so about as close as you can get!

Today's minima has been recorded as 14.3C, which takes us to 18.3C/10.0C max/min without today's maxima, so we'll probably see a jump to 14.2C tomorrow.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_min_est_2008

[ukmoose]

The Netweather tracker has the CET rather higher than Hadley or Manley and certainly seems closer to what has actually happened in my neck of the woods.

Nothing too hot of course but might time minima quite well up which I would have thought would have pushed the CET a little higher than the low 14s currently showing.

Seems a little strange to me...

Moose

[eddie]

Hadley CET is now 14.2C (14.17 rounded) and it looks fairly likely that it will still be 14.2C tomorrow before they perform any final adjustment.

Looking at the rainfall and sunshine figures on Philip Eden's site (93% and 112%) average would be a good word to describe this month.

[Thundery wintry showers]

112% would probably classify as slightly above average sunshine- if I remember rightly, after 1996 only 2003 and 2006 managed a greater positive sunshine anomaly over England & Wales, which admittedly reflects how many dull Junes there have been since the run of relatively sunny Junes around the mid-1990s.

[reef]

June has been comfirmed in the quality-controlled Hadley series as 13.9C, putting it up there with June 1999 as the joint coolest since 1991.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2008

Interestingly its also technically the 6th 'below average' month (I use the term loosely as really its close to average) in the last 12. We've not seen that since 1996. It also sends the 12 month rolling average back to 10.07C.

[Guest Mike W]

It's also in the CET Series section: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

[Kentish Man]

June has been comfirmed in the quality-controlled Hadley series as 13.9C, putting it up there with June 1999 as the joint coolest since 1991.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2008

Interestingly its also technically the 6th 'below average' month (I use the term loosely as really its close to average) in the last 12. We've not seen that since 1996. It also sends the 12 month rolling average back to 10.07C.

That final correction is quite surprising really. Manley has finished on 14.2C. which is 0.3C higher and fractionally above the 1971 - 2000 average and this is also after Hadops were recording a much higher running CET than Manley after the first week to ten days (look back on thread!).

I suspect the South East will have been above average generally.

Edited July 1, 2008 by Kentish Man

[reef]

Sooner or later I have to be near the mark in constantly punting for below average months, I'll be cautious and say 13.9c

Indeed, well done you're the only person who got it spot-on this month

Strangely despite being well below the Hadley (without adjustment) for almost the entire month, the Manley series has finished on 14.2C aswell.

[Weather-history]

3rd consecutive below average summer month for the Hadley CET and 4 of the last 5 summer months have been below average for Hadley if you include August 2006.

There is some argument over August 2006 but at least for Hadley it is below the 1971-2000 Hadley CET average.

Edited July 1, 2008 by Mr_Data

[Thundery wintry showers]

My guess is that Hadley might adjust it upwards a touch, unless it's similar to the anomalously low 4.4C for December 2005. The Manley figure looks a lot more consistent with the general station anomalies across central England.

So, in summary, June 2008- close to average temperature, dry and sunny in the south, wet in the N and W but with below average sunshine confined to eastern Scotland. Hardly the washout many have been complaining about!

[reef]

My guess is that Hadley might adjust it upwards a touch, unless it's similar to the anomalously low 4.4C for December 2005. The Manley figure looks a lot more consistent with the general station anomalies across central England.

So, in summary, June 2008- close to average temperature, dry and sunny in the south, wet in the N and W but with below average sunshine confined to eastern Scotland. Hardly the washout many have been complaining about!

Looking at both of the figures (provisional and controlled), the largest difference is in the cool spell we had mid-month. On the provisional series, the 12th-17th averaged 12.1C, but on the final controlled figures it is just 11.6C. The 21st however has gone the other way, from 12.5C to 13.4C. Several other days have large differences too.

Provisonal Mean:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2008

Quality-Controlled Mean:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2008

With regards to Manley/Hadley. Last June saw just as marked a difference between the two. Hadley finished on 15.1C while Manley was a tad under 15.5C!

Chart showing the difference from Jan 2005-Present:

With just a few exceptions, it seems the final value is usually lower. Theres no real pattern either.

[Snowly does it]

First Summer month of the 21st century to come in below 14 degrees and as Reef said joint coolest since 1991 - and yet it really ahsn't been too bad in Norfolk - you guys North and West of here must have had it icky....