June CET

[Stu_London]

Looks like we are going to see a downward movement after tomorrow with mins getting into single figures and maxes probably averaging in the CET zone around 14-15C will ensure a slow drop will occur. Still too early to know what is going to be the outcome of this month.

At this relatively early stage of the month, the drop will be pretty sharp

[Snowly does it]

Looks like we are going to see a downward movement after tomorrow with mins getting into single figures and maxes probably averaging in the CET zone around 14-15C will ensure a slow drop will occur. Still too early to know what is going to be the outcome of this month.

If it were 15 after today, those figures would see it below average by the 16th, so a relatively steep drop surely?

[Kentish Man]

Hadley today is on 14.8C (Jun 1 - 9) which is 1.2C above average for this stage of the month. Manley is still running a few points lower and today is on 14.4C.

[Eugene]

Yes i would concur with snowmaiden, it looks like a pretty steep drop to me especially if skies are clear end of the week into the weekend at night with some notably low mins for the time of year possible almost anywhere.

The only way is down from now on not up as yazz once sang.

[Stu_London]

If i use the current Manley value as a start point (controversial, I know) then I get to a value of 13.4 by the 17th June. (hadley should by 13.6 by then)

After this it looks like things warm enough to stablise the drop and even for things to rise a little, although there remain more colder ensemble solutions than warm/hot ones.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

If i use the current Manley value as a start point (controversial, I know) then I get to a value of 13.4 by the 17th June. (hadley should by 13.6 by then)

After this it looks like things warm enough to stablise the drop and even for things to rise a little, although there remain more colder ensemble solutions than warm/hot ones.

Peter Cockroft says only 15c for London by Friday! That would mean probably max temps across the CET being at or below the June average. Oh what a turnaround

BFTP

[BornFromTheVoid]

My 15.9 isn't looking too healthy right now...

When was the last time a sub 13C June CET was recorded?

[Weather-history]

My 15.9 isn't looking too healthy right now...

When was the last time a sub 13C June CET was recorded?

1991: 8th coldest June ever record with 12.1

[reef]

Today could well see the peak value the CET reaches this month. Hadley has updated and was 15.0C to the 10th.

The next few days look rather cool, if not cold for the time of year. The GFS 6z has widespread 0-2C over inland parts of the country on Monday morning. Such values would help the mean to take a massive knock.

1991: 8th coldest June ever record with 12.1

Indeed, plus we only need to finish at 13.8C to have the coldest June since then.

[damianslaw]

Yes, the CET looks like it will be taking a bot of a tumble over coming days, so by mid month we will be appreciably a bit below average and going by the outlook I think we can safely say a very warm June is not looking like being on the cards this year. I still think we can push it back to a bit above average i.e. 0.5-1 degree above but nothing more than this, I may be proved wrong..

[Kentish Man]

Hadley dropped 0.1C yesterday to 14.9C (Jun 1 - 11) and thats before the real cooldown set in today.

Looking at the latest GFS model run you'd have to go for below average by the end of the month though a hot last week for example could still change things round. Unfortunately there's no sign of that at present.

[damianslaw]

1991: 8th coldest June ever record with 12.1

Oooh that June figure is very poor. I remember going on a school trip to Le Toquet on north coast of France during that month and distinctly remember it being preety chilly and cloudy and windy affair. Whatever happens to the rest of this June it won't turn out anywhere near as bad that month. Its a long long time since we have had any summer month that below the summer average, what a shock it would be if we were to see such a below summer month CET again, the media would go into overdrive..

[kold weather]

Well yep if the cooler slack northerly type airflow can carry on then it does raise the chances of a below average June with each passing day. The last 7 days can still see fairly large rises esp if we were to get a heatwave however we will have to see. The GFS and the ECM both eventually develop a warmer patter however it probably would only lead to average, maybe slightly above average temps if the models are right and of course there are no certainties with that.

[Stu_London]

1991: 8th coldest June ever record with 12.1

I recall a reasonable snow event for the North of the UK in the first few days.

There was also snow on my birthday that year (May 7th) in County Durham.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Hazelrigg (Lancaster University) reported sleet on 3 June 1991, from a notably deep northerly (similar synoptics to 2 June 1975, but snow not quite as widespread). I think the emphasis that month was especially on cold airmasses rather than exceptional wetness, though for most it was also dull and wet as well.

The preceding May was rather contrary in that for many it was one of the dullest and driest on record.

[summer blizzard]

What is Hadley running at now??

[Weather-history]

What is Hadley running at now??

14.5 and the first half of June is going to be cooler than the first half of May, only has happened twice before since World War II (1971, 1990)

[damianslaw]

Nearing the half way point of the month, and going from the outlook for the next few days, I think it is going to be a hard struggle to record a CET one degree above its average, though still too early to say whether a below average CET is likely. It will be interesting to see how the cool nightime minima of the next few nights impacts on the CET, maxima for the next few days don't look too far from the average.

[summer blizzard]

Nearing the half way point of the month, and going from the outlook for the next few days, I think it is going to be a hard struggle to record a CET one degree above its average, though still too early to say whether a below average CET is likely. It will be interesting to see how the cool nightime minima of the next few nights impacts on the CET, maxima for the next few days don't look too far from the average.

Looks like we could se a moister flow from the 19th to the 27th, meaning higher minima, though until then, and after then, the outlook looks cold and showery, we could very easily finish below average if the warmer flow is downgraded, though i think an outurn slightly above average looks the mark to me.

[Snowly does it]

Somewhere close to average (14.1) looks likly now for mid month meaning we would require a very mild second half to match last years outturn - the longer range outlook really doesn't support this at the moment. I think a finish in the 13s is possible now, however the last few days if we revert to mild could see it into the 14s - I think 15 plus is looking unlikely from here, range 13.1-14.9 for me

[Snowyowl9]

Last below average June was 1999 at 13.9c the previous 2 years were only slightly above could even end up the coolest June since 1991 with what the models are showing although a milder SW-ly will bring it up unless it`s a wet unsettled one or it ends up further south then back to more cooler west/NW winds along way off.

[Stu_London]

I have it about 13.7C by the 20th.

Plenty of coolish ensemble members after that, although I don't see things dropping much below that level (even a cold day and night would probably average out at 10C at the end of June)

Below average, slightly odds on I think.

[Scorcher]

I disagree with those who think a below average month is odds on. I would say around average is certainly favourite at the moment, but if I was going to guess one way or the other it would be slightly above. I feel that the CET will have dropped to around average by the end of next week, but I feel there is going to be a warm last week which might just send it above.

[Snowly does it]

I disagree with those who think a below average month is odds on. I would say around average is certainly favourite at the moment, but if I was going to guess one way or the other it would be slightly above. I feel that the CET will have dropped to around average by the end of next week, but I feel there is going to be a warm last week which might just send it above.

Hadley is already down to 14.3 as of yesterday and will likely be at average (14.1) after todays update. The next week looks below this figure and as such by Friday it should be at 13.6 or 13.7 but with some low minima it could be lower than this - it has dropped 0.7 in 4 days so might conceivably be at 13.4 or so by the 20th perhaps. Its also still running well ahead (0.2) of Manley and so some downward correction at month end is very possible.

If 13.7 by the 20th, 14.9 for the remainder of the month to get back to average - certainly possible but doesn't look favourite on ensemble evidence.

[Snowyowl9]

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

14.1c it is so averge upto the 14th, on the 71-00 but 0.1c below the 61-90 average so June is not a warming month it seems.

By the way also last month was the most easterly may in 136 years. :lol: