June CET

[osmposm]

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

14.1c it is so averge upto the 14th

Yes, but 14.1 is the average for the whole month, and June is a month that generally warms up. According to climate-uk we're still running at 0.5 above the mean for the month to this date.

Edited June 15, 2008 by osmposm

[Stu_London]

18z has an outrun of 13.1C for June - Brrr

That would bring the sub 10C in running right back onto the agenda (a fall to 13.5 or so next week might also)

I suspect it will turn out a little warmer but wouldn't give above average more than a 25% chance now

[Optimus Prime]

If June comes in at 13.1c the first half would turn out pretty cool in comparison to recent years and would result the firat half yearly CET of 8.8c.

Jan-June average;

1971-2000 8.1c

1961-1990 7.8

Compares to

2007 9.7c

2006 8.3c

2005 8.9c

2004 9.0c

2003 9.0c

2002 9.3c

2001 7.9c

2000 9.0c

1999 9.1c

1998 9.2c

1997 8.7c (despite the cold January!)

1996 7.2c

Legendary 1996 stands out as being a major outlier.

1963 and 1979 6.2c

[Stu_London]

If June comes in at 13.1c the first half would turn out pretty cool in comparison to recent years and would result the firat half yearly CET of 8.8c.

Jan-June average;

1971-2000 8.1c

1961-1990 7.8

Compares to

2007 9.7c

2006 8.3c

2005 8.9c

2004 9.0c

2003 9.0c

2002 9.3c

2001 7.9c

2000 9.0c

1999 9.1c

1998 9.2c

1997 8.7c (despite the cold January!)

1996 7.2c

Legendary 1996 stands out as being a major outlier.

1963 and 1979 6.2c

1985 to 1987 were a good run

6.6 (85)

6.5 (86)

6.9 (87)

1987 stat is made more remarkable by the fact that it contained a near record (at the time) warm April

Edited June 16, 2008 by Stu_London

[Snowyowl9]

Yes, but 14.1 is the average for the whole month, and June is a month that generally warms up. According to climate-uk we're still running at 0.5 above the mean for the month to this date.

13.9c today so another 0.2c drop and thats not including last night which was even colder.

And this month has been so dry well here not as I`m complaining.

[Kentish Man]

13.9c today so another 0.2c drop and thats not including last night which was even colder.

And this month has been so dry well here not as I`m complaining.

Hadley has now updated as well and stands on 14.1C as of the halfway point of the month. This by chance equals the average CET for the whole of June (1971 - 2000) although it is 0.5C above the rolling average for the first half of the month.

[Duncan McAlister]

Cold night in the CET zone with 4-5C quite widely. CET should take a hit tommorow morning then!

[Snowly does it]

18z has an outrun of 13.1C for June - Brrr

That would bring the sub 10C in running right back onto the agenda (a fall to 13.5 or so next week might also)

I suspect it will turn out a little warmer but wouldn't give above average more than a 25% chance now

By my reckoning, 13.1 for June would mean we were under 10 for the rolling 12 month period?

[Stu_London]

By my reckoning, 13.1 for June would mean we were under 10 for the rolling 12 month period?

On June 15th 2007, the CET for the month in running was 15.8C - so we may be below or close to below 10C in running as we speak

Certainly sometime between the 19th and 23rd (where last year the CET was steady at 15.7C) I expect us to go sub 10C

A chilly last week of June 07 brought us back to 15.1C

Remarkable really because after the first two weeks of May I had written off sub 10C in running until Autumn or more likely Jan09 / Feb09. Just goes to show that the weather never fails to suprise.

[Stu_London]

On June 15th 2007, the CET for the month in running was 15.8C - so we may be below or close to below 10C in running as we speak

Certainly sometime between the 19th and 23rd (where last year the CET was steady at 15.7C) I expect us to go sub 10C

A chilly last week of June 07 brought us back to 15.1C

Remarkable really because after the first two weeks of May I had written off sub 10C in running until Autumn or more likely Jan09 / Feb09. Just goes to show that the weather never fails to suprise.

Actually my maths (above) is a bit screwy.

We aren't yet below 10C in running, there is a good chance we will be sometime on or just before the 23rd however. Will update appropriately.

[reef]

We're really scraping the barrel if we have to go down to individual days to find a 12 month period below 10C!

Hadley is 13.9C up to the 17th, Manley is 13.7C. Both are exactly average for this point in the month.

[Stu_London]

We're really scraping the barrel if we have to go down to individual days to find a 12 month period below 10C!

As we haven't been there for a number of years, worth doing so, however.

A similar situation occured at the end of April but we only got down to 10.02C - I think sub 10C is on this time, as long as we don't rise too much in the next couple

[summer blizzard]

Am i right in thinking that 2005 or early 2006 is the last such sub 10C yearly timeframe.

[reef]

Am i right in thinking that 2005 or early 2006 is the last such sub 10C yearly timeframe.

The last time we finished a month with a rolling 12 month average below 10C was actually December 2001 (9.93C). April 2006 just missed out at 10.03C. Previous to that the last month was July 1997.

[Stu_London]

To add: 10.06 as at today

Likely to fall by 0.01 or 0.02 per day as we go through the week as we a still up against 15 to 16C days last year.

[The PIT]

Back on subject Hadley has June down 13.9C until the 17th. Until the models settle down it's hard to tell whether it'll start an a slight upward trend /level or continue it's very slow drop. I expect it'll be around this level by the end of the month as there's nothing special shown either way by cold or warmth.

[damianslaw]

Still just less than 2 weeks of June to go however, I'm beginning to feel that the CET will end up very near average following the trend of many recent months bar January and May. The chances of seeing a reasonable above average CET i.e. 1 degree above normal now look very slim.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think an outturn around mid to high 14s is still very realistic, though my original prediction of 15.2 may be a little too high. Southerly winds look likely to be more prevalent than usual during the last third of June, and while it may not be high pressure and blazing hot sunshine, it may well be fairly warm at times.

[Stu_London]

I did an outrun from the 12z and have to say it looks like it will stay pretty much where it is from that data, which means it may rise a tad as GFS tends to underdo summer temps (night and day). Would need a heatwave in the last week (unreliable timeframe so subject to variation) to get anywhere near the 15C mark

[The PIT]

06 oz shows warmer air pushing into CET area and if it actually happens that way should push CET back above average. I reckon a slightly above average return despite the northerly domination.

[Stu_London]

06 oz shows warmer air pushing into CET area and if it actually happens that way should push CET back above average. I reckon a slightly above average return despite the northerly domination.

Great

more AGW histrionics to look forward to

[reef]

Yesterday came in at 14.6C, taking the Hadley running average to 14.0C to the 19th. There will be slight rises and falls from here on in, but I think 13.8C to 14.5C is a good landing range at the moment.

Interestingly June 2007 at this point in the month was 15.9C.

[Weather-history]

Hadley CET is 14.0

The first 20 days of the meteorological summer is the coolest (at least for the CET) since 2001.

[damianslaw]

Hadley CET is 14.0

The first 20 days of the meteorological summer is the coolest (at least for the CET) since 2001.

Yes not the warmest of starts to our summer. However, some would argue that it has a very traditional flavour to it i.e. you wouldn't normally expect early-mid June to deliver any proper summer heat, this should be reserved for the high summer period of mid July- early August. I'm beginning to think this summer is going to be classiclly traditional on the heat/rain and sun front, it does feel at this stage that it is shaping up to be a very traditional one, late June traditionally sees the atlantic re-energise itself on its westerly trajectory and bang on cue the atlantic is doing just that after 3 months of general inactivity - all very text book!

[Weather-history]

From Philip Eden

11th- 20th 13.0 -1.2

Looking at that period for Hadley, it looks as though that is the coolest mid-June (11th-20th) period since 1991

Edited June 21, 2008 by Mr_Data