Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports

[oldsnowywizard]

one or two days of above 0 temps over the Russian sectors.. even though 850 temps are not below 0 in most of the basin, the 2m temps are finally forecast to be widespread below 0.. the sun is starting to slip.. high pressure set to dominate so no storms at least for the next week... so hopefully we should start to see melt rates slow down..

[jethro]

Perhaps this has some bearing on the pattern changes being seen in the Arctic this year:

http://weblogs.marylandweather.com/2008/08...ain_cool_a.html

In particular; "Hufford said the Arctic Low, a persistent feature of the far northern atmosphere that usually hangs out near Greenland, has shifted west to the northeast corner of Siberia."

[Iceberg]

Worth mentioning that the Deep NW passage has now opened up today, along with the NW shallow earlier.

I believe this is the first time that the deep NW passage has opened in consecutive years in only a hand full of times ever recorded. (I am sure somebody will quote a remote 40's ice explorer but lets not go there again ! ).

The NE passage should be open in a few days as well.

Large scale melting going on in near the pole as well.

[LadyPakal]

http://awberrimilla.blogspot.com/

1st hand accounts from a sail boat treking the NW passage.

Also another one going the other way:

http://www.69nord.com/english/expe/logbook.html

Edited August 16, 2008 by LadyPakal

[Thundery wintry showers]

There still seems to be rather more than there was last year, primarily in the NW Canada/NE Asia sector, though the Siberian ice is melting fast (not unexpected, really, given that there have been anomalously high 850hPa temps around there for a while).

Thus, if we're to break or approach last year's low extent record, I think we're going to need above average temperatures to persist for a while in the aforementioned just-north-of-NW Canada/NE Asia area. There are signs that this could happen for a week or so, with the relatively warm pool over Siberia migrating towards that area with 850hPa temps approaching +10C. Something to watch out for, although on the basis of the latest GFS runs, it should be cooling back down again in a week's time.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This is interesting

discrepancies?

BFTP

[Guest Mike W]

I posted this link in the Arctic Ice thread in the Climate Change section BFTP. Apparently the article is totally wrong.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I posted this link in the Arctic Ice thread in the Climate Change section BFTP. Apparently the article is totally wrong.

Let me guess...Iceberg? I'll go and have a look now

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Only T168 away and indeed 120/144 not too different

BFTP

[Iceberg]

looks like the good old polar vortex is forecast to strengthen in the artic region over the nex 7 days.. eventually bringing quite a large area of -10 850 temps and widespread below 0 temps.. if this actually happens it would be very early indeed in the season..

its usually late august where colder temps start to return to the arctic.

We've been here before BFTP. (see above). IF it coms off it will help to slow down the rate of melt increase for some of the Arctic though. (hope it does! ).

BTW had a chance to comment on the validity of the link mentioned yet. ?

Probably best to discuss it in the Arctic thread.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

We've been here before BFTP. (see above). IF it coms off it will help to slow down the rate of melt increase for some of the Arctic though. (hope it does! ).

BTW had a chance to comment on the validity of the link mentioned yet. ?

Probably best to discuss it in the Arctic thread.

I see it was you Don't know what to believe except that it is well below average shall we say. Even SST anomaly sites differ.

BFTP

[carinthian]

Evening,

The East Greenland Cold current is transporting polar ice southbound to be presently 75 degrees North. This is far south for the time of year. The dreaded "hafis " comes into play for the folk of Iceland seeing this development. It may well be repelled over the coming week with pressure patterns likely to stop its advance. Nevertheless, a interesting ice chart.

C

[oldsnowywizard]

looks like ice melt has halted for the time being... 500k sq kms up on last year. according to CT..

[carinthian]

Hi OSW,

Last years record low ice will not be beaten now. The Arctic basin is in cooling mode at present with the only presence of upper air warm convection across the Greenland ice cap. At surface level cold water advection continues to hold the ice flow east of Shannon Island out into the Greenland Sea at 75N, this is an encouranging development.

C

[Mr Sleet]

looks like ice melt has halted for the time being... 500k sq kms up on last year. according to CT..

Looks that way although I wouldn't rule out a slight further decline. In 2007 the ice took a long time to start to grow back (long flat bit at minimum), will be interesting to see what happens this year. My forecast back in April (I think) that the 2008 minimum would be between 1 and 2 Msqkm above the 2007

minimum may not be far from the mark.

[oldsnowywizard]

seems to be a few disagreements between the charts.. CT is showing a plateau out of ice melt, whereas nsidc is showing a rapid plunge still..

[The PIT]

Hi OSW,

Last years record low ice will not be beaten now. The Arctic basin is in cooling mode at present with the only presence of upper air warm convection across the Greenland ice cap. At surface level cold water advection continues to hold the ice flow east of Shannon Island out into the Greenland Sea at 75N, this is an encouranging development.

C

Funny this isn't what's being said in the other thread. So who's right???

[Jack Wales]

My forecast back in April (I think) that the 2008 minimum would be between 1 and 2 Msqkm above the 2007

minimum may not be far from the mark.

I doubt it as we are already approx 1/2m sq km from the 2007 minima. It looks as we are now approaching the 2008 minima from the graph on CT...

Cryosphere Today NH Sea Ice

Any further losses should be offset by gains in the high arctic although IMO it's still too early to completely rule out surpassing the 2007 minima.

Edited August 27, 2008 by Jack Wales

[Thundery wintry showers]

From the data I can see, the 2007 minimum looks very unlikely to be exceeded unless the Arctic becomes unusually warm this September, causing further melting. Temperatures vaguely close to the long-term average should support little or no further melting.

[Iceberg]

According to IJIS which uses the AMRS-E it's dropped by 250,000km2 in the last 3 days so there is still room for further declines even in the CT chart. At this time of the year the Sea temp effects melting more than air temps.

[Thundery wintry showers]

People have posted that many times in these threads, but I'd like to see some evidence, because while sea temperature certainly has an effect, I've consistently noticed correlations between Arctic temps and melting. For example the notable Autumn 2005 melt coincided with exceptionally warm temperatures, while the cool weather of August 2006 helped reduce melting.

[Iceberg]

This will be a good example/test TWS. If Temps remain above average, then the melting must be due to other factors(the most likely being sea temps), if there is little or no further melting then it looks like temps are the biggest factor.?.

[osmposm]

.......If Temps remain above average, then the melting must be due to other factors(the most likely being sea temps)......

I think you mean below average, don't you, Ice? Not that I know if they are or not - I imagine it's pretty variable over the arctic as a whole.

Edited August 27, 2008 by osmposm

[Iceberg]

yes typo

Thanks

[carinthian]

From the data I can see, the 2007 minimum looks very unlikely to be exceeded unless the Arctic becomes unusually warm this September, causing further melting. Temperatures vaguely close to the long-term average should support little or no further melting.

I have to support TWS thoughts at the present time. A large surface high has developed over the past 7 days ,covering much of Arctic Basin from the Beaufort to the Barent. Still conditions are best for retention of ice and with soundings showing a pronounced inversion layer,cold surface air is trapped below 950 mb height, even though the upper layers of the atmosphere remain above freezing.

C