Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports

[reef]

We could well see quite a big loss still on the other side of the globe, as the cold air is all concentrated around Svalbard this year.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhavn242.gif

Ice concentration is looking particularly poor in the Alaskan and East Siberian sectors and could well disappear before refreezing starts to occur. We're also not far off seeing the opening of the north-west passage again,

http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/...MSRE_visual.png

At present we're around 700,000 sq km up on this time last year, but in 2007 the ice melt plateaued by mid-August. Even a coupld of extra weeks of melting could see us with the same low extent as last year.

[Iceberg]

Agree with your thoughts Reef, the NW passage is now open(the shallow one anyway), the deeper has only 50% ice coverage so would certainly be open to all but the big ships.

[oldsnowywizard]

GW/Reef agree we could see a longer melt period, however im still confident that we wont see levels any worse than last year..

first compare this year with last...

quite a difference...

reef that 850 chart is one period in time. for the period of about a week, slightly warmer temps have/will engulfed the eastern siberian and chukchi area. in 7 days time colder 850s are forecast to span much of the arctic. 850 temps will continue to drop as the month proceeds... remember the 850 temps havent been as warm as last years.. acomparison below..

that area of warmer 850 temps has only just come into frame as well..

so i believe that unless another potent warm plume arrives in the arctic, melt from warmer air temps will be fairly limited.. dont forget the larger area of ice this year compared to last will also reduce the surface air temp in the surrounding areas..

so SSTs are next

sorry for adding this chart but its the only one that shows the arctic areas... it does show surface temps only..

as you can see considering the large area of open ocean around beaufort and the Canadian side of the Arctic basin you can see that only a small area of the ssts are showing above normal temp anomolies even then the temps are only +2 in places..

i think time is running out now for major melting.. the next few weeks maybe a little more, but after that we should see things start to slow down if not halt.

i guess this is the timeframe we have all been waiting for though, so we shall watch with great interest.

Agree with your thoughts Reef, the NW passage is now open(the shallow one anyway), the deeper has only 50% ice coverage so would certainly be open to all but the big ships.

hmmm something fishy going on.. this source doesnt show what others do... according to http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/hires/nh.xml

there is still ice concentrations in this area...

[Iceberg]

My understanding is that the AMRS-E data from Bremen is the highest res that exists. I am not sure what data source is used by the link you've given.

I know using a Modis/Aqua picture that GW supplied the AMRSE data seemed to match up almost perfectly with what's on the ground.

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Not sure whether this relates to this Arctic Ice thread, and I know this is pretty obvious but why over the last few years do all the warm anomolies seem to effect the Northern Hemisphere far more, if you look at the SST's at the mo, all the positives are at a high latitude whilst in the Southern Hemisphere absolutely nout! - any particular reason for this?

[trevw]

Presumeably the only reason melt stopped so abruptly last year is that due to the phenominal melt rate over the summer all the 'easy to get' ice had melted and all that was left was thick multi year ice?

Not sure how to bring up the weather at the arctic for mid august to late sept of last year. If that was the reason for the halt (rather than a sudden change in weather) then I vaguely remember melt continuing one prior year into the 3rd week of september which would give a whole extra months melt? Allbeit at a steadily reducing rate.. With a lot of 'easy to get' ice left it will be interesting to see where things end up..

Think we'd have to be unlucky with the synoptics to match last year but I have a feeling we could get close enough to quieten those who are talking of a major recovery?

Trev

[oldsnowywizard]

Think we'd have to be unlucky with the synoptics to match last year but I have a feeling we could get close enough to quieten those who are talking of a major recovery?

Trev

i dont think anyone has said anything about a major recovery at all? and what exactly would constitute a Major recovery?

[Iceberg]

I think that was on the other Arctic Thread OSW.

[trevw]

I think that was on the other Arctic Thread OSW.

yes, sorry, I think it was. Sometimes forget which thread I'm reading.

[oldsnowywizard]

latest.. CT chart i think has caught up with other sites.. bad news.. looks like a sudden mass melt... still better than last year.. im going for plus 200sq km.. not great but still better... anyone else..?

[The PIT]

Just looks like the melt is continuing at the same rate to me as previously. The anomaly isn't nose diving either.

[Iceberg]

Looks like even CT's pictures now support the opening of the NW passage a couple of days later than the AMSR.

The AMSR now shows the deeper NW passage opening in maybe a weeks time.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NE...ce.some.000.png

I think OSW is right a week ago the anom difference between last year and this year was around 800 this has now dropped to 500 as we've had a bigger fall currently than this time last year.

[Gray-Wolf]

Just looks like the melt is continuing at the same rate to me as previously. The anomaly isn't nose diving either.

I think you can see on here that the gradient has become steeper over the last few days.

Though 2 weeks later than I thought we'd see this (apparently been cold for 2 weeks in the Canadian Arctic) we are witnessing the small 'raftletts' if single year ice now failing en-mass. I believe this process has more to do with the warmth of the water the ice is bathed in and, as such, we could have another 5 weeks of similar rates of melt.

Of interest to me is the fate of the remaining multiyear ice to the north of Greenland and whether or not we see another late Aug 'jolt' into deeper waters more poleward. If we do see this then I believe that it is the start of the end for this, the last substantial cluster, of multiyear ice. The seasonal melt patterns will start to differ in trend when energy goes straight into melting single year ice/warming sea water instead of into melting these ice mountains.

[reef]

I think you can see on here that the gradient has become steeper over the last few days.

Though 2 weeks later than I thought we'd see this (apparently been cold for 2 weeks in the Canadian Arctic) we are witnessing the small 'raftletts' if single year ice now failing en-mass. I believe this process has more to do with the warmth of the water the ice is bathed in and, as such, we could have another 5 weeks of similar rates of melt.

Of interest to me is the fate of the remaining multiyear ice to the north of Greenland and whether or not we see another late Aug 'jolt' into deeper waters more poleward. If we do see this then I believe that it is the start of the end for this, the last substantial cluster, of multiyear ice. The seasonal melt patterns will start to differ in trend when energy goes straight into melting single year ice/warming sea water instead of into melting these ice mountains.

Yes, its looking more and more likely now that we could end up at least equalling last years melt. There has been a rapid dip in the anomoly in the last few days. The forecast isnt looking good either, until now, ice concentration in the Siberian sector has been pretty good, but the GFS is forecasting a warm plume there for at least a week, with the 10C isotherm touching the Arctic ocean.

I suspect we could well see the ice being eaten away for much of August, whereas last year it plateaued mid-month. All of the cold air seems to be bottled up over Svalbard, Greenland and the Canadian Arctic for now.

Just 400,000 sq km more than this time last year:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

Warm air heading north in the Siberian sector:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhavn242.gif

Will it beat last year? Just 1.5 million sq km to go with more than a month's potential melting.

Edited August 8, 2008 by reef

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, there's been a pronounced pool of 5-10C 850hPa air up on the other end of the Arctic (especially around eastern Eurasia) for a while now, and correspondingly, that appears to be where most of the recent rapid melting has taken place. Probably somewhat more melting to come in that area for some time.

On the other hand the cool area around Svalbard, Greenland and the Canadian Arctic doesn't look like shifting, so these areas should continue to see only minimal melt.

It doesn't look good, as Reef's post above is quite right- the warm pool looks likely to extend into the Siberian sector which should help precipitate widespread melting there.

Yes, high sea temperatures obviously aren't going to be helping, but I think the warm airmasses in the sectors that are melting also have a lot to do with it.

Edited August 8, 2008 by Thundery wintry showers

[Iceberg]

I think this was always going to be the problem this year, warm plumes are normal effects in the arctic summer, but with so much shallow first year ice, there is no protection from rapid melt when they occur.

We've been very lucky upto now in that the arctic has generally been cooler than normal, LP has frequently been around in the first half of summer and the warmer plumes couldn't be maintained.

We might if stike it lucky again in the second half of August and September and the melting will slow right down again, or we might continue with more rapid melting.

[carinthian]

Evening,

The present rate of loss is greatest in the Western Basin of the Arctic Ocean. However, compared to last year the reverse is happening in the Eastern Basin. Indeed the advance of the Polar Ice sheet is in evidence in the North Barent and Greenland Basin. Very borderline , whether the thinner first year lasts the next 4 weeks. Presently, more cloud cover in the Euro/ Siberian sectors are maintaining summer ice cover in this region.

C

[carinthian]

Evening,

The present rate of loss is greatest in the Western Basin of the Arctic Ocean. However, compared to last year the reverse is happening in the Eastern Basin. Indeed the advance of the Polar Ice sheet is in evidence in the North Barent and Greenland Basin. Very borderline , whether the thinner first year lasts the next 4 weeks. Presently, more cloud cover in the Euro/ Siberian sectors are maintaining summer ice cover in this region.

C

Morning,

First snowfall of "the season" in Svalbard this morning. Snow lying on most high ground but also some evidence of low level settlement. Cold pool formation in the Greenland Sea the cause.

C

[Polar Continental]

Morning,

First snowfall of "the season" in Svalbard this morning. Snow lying on most high ground but also some evidence of low level settlement. Cold pool formation in the Greenland Sea the cause.

C

Thanks carinthian, yes a good dusting shown on Auroral station and a sprinkle down to sea level for a time at Longyearbyen during the early hours of this morning.

More cold pooling predicted for early next weekend over Greenland with widespread –15c isotherms and even some at –20c.

Paul

[Optimus Prime]

Definetely an improvement to last year;

The change is fairly remarkable to 1996;

And 1979;

[carinthian]

Polar ice much more advanced in the location of Greenland Basin and already locked into the northern coastal regions of Svalbard. This looks encouraging. The best I have seen for a few years. Note the extent of the polar drift of ice southwards.

C

Edited August 11, 2008 by carinthian

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

I'd tend to hold back on your encouragement there Carinth! The pack has been more 'mobile' over the last 10 days or so and so some 'relaxing out' of the ice edge is probable.

The NSIDC ice extent graph seems to know no limits to how 'steep' the melt line can become and has me thinking that it may well end up exceeding last years pitiful ice min.

[Iceberg]

CT is saying less greenland ice this year than last and about the same Barents ice.

On the whole I'd say that things are pretty similar between this year and last year in that part of the world.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

http://www.nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

I'd tend to hold back on your encouragement there Carinth!

I wouldn't :o

BFTP

[carinthian]

Evening,

The present rate of loss is greatest in the Western Basin of the Arctic Ocean. However, compared to last year the reverse is happening in the Eastern Basin. Indeed the advance of the Polar Ice sheet is in evidence in the North Barent and Greenland Basin. Very borderline , whether the thinner first year lasts the next 4 weeks. Presently, more cloud cover in the Euro/ Siberian sectors are maintaining summer ice cover in this region.

C

[/quote

Perfect model prognoses of ice is impossible. An error of correction of 20% is possible. You can never rule out the component of chance on the actual atmospheric conditions, wind, cloud cover and air pressure. All of which differ greatly from last summer. For this very reason, I now expect more summer ice retention than last years record low, however the loss is still too great to get complacent.

C