Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports

[Stu_London]

Ranked no 1 and 2 respectively in the 20th Century I think.... (await Mr D to correct me!)

According to Hadley CET, I was right about this anyway and indeed 1976 is ranked 1 in the 350 year series and 1995 was ranked 3.

Summer 2007 was ranked 178 (easily the coolest ranked season of the 21st Century to date) which, to bring us nicely back onto topic, goes to show that it can be anomolously warm in the arctic region and average or worse at our latitude.

[Gray-Wolf]

The other think of note ,both this and last year, are the SST's revealed as the ice cover draws back. The only 'anomaly' in the anomaly is where the Siberian river systems pour out their melt waters into the russian sector

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data...t.7.17.2008.gif

It's not as though ,when the ice retreats , we get a gradual rise to positive anoms rather that the ice rolls back to reveal +4c (and more) anoms below.

The whole polar region has been blanketed in low stratoform for over a week now and if the melting is , like in Antarctica, a product of oceanic warming then the 'arctic sea smoke' we are bogged down with will do nothing to slow melt rates, in fact it may act as a snuggly warm blanket allowing surface as well as basal melting to occur.

I know the dynamics of sea ice cover are greatly changed to last year (less perennial and more poorly formed single year) but if we run close to,or exceed, last years ice min then I think we really need look at our deep oceans and the warming that has occurred their as, at some point, it will resurface. We may already be inheriting the early 20th century 'warming' now.......and the warming from the late 20th century, which was oh so much more, is only half way through it's journey!

[Snowball Earth!]

GW are you seriously suggesting that the tiny rise in surface temps is causing this?

[stewfox]

The whole polar region has been blanketed in low stratoform for over a week now and if the melting is , like in Antarctica, a product of oceanic warming then the 'arctic sea smoke' we are bogged down with will do nothing to slow melt rates, in fact it may act as a snuggly warm blanket allowing surface as well as basal melting to occur.

Given 9/10^th of sea ice is below the water level I see little comment re whats going on ‘below’

Are there links /comparative charts re the ‘thickness of the ice year on year rtaher then just surface cover ?

[Gray-Wolf]

Given 9/10^th of sea ice is below the water level I see little comment re whats going on 'below'

Are there links /comparative charts re the 'thickness of the ice year on year rtaher then just surface cover ?

I believe quikscat has been doing that job for a number of years now (amongst other sats) so maybe you'd care to check out both NASA and NSIDC for the information you seek

GW are you seriously suggesting that the tiny rise in surface temps is causing this?

Tell you what, put an ice cube in water at 0c and an ice cbe in water at 0.5c and I betcha I know which will melt first.

Don't you think that the rises are relative to the system they impact upon or am I howling at the moon

[Snowball Earth!]

GW blow a hairdryer over a pan of water and heat one up on a hob........... I know which will get hotter first!

[trevw]

I know the dynamics of sea ice cover are greatly changed to last year (less perennial and more poorly formed single year)..

Interestingly this has been said a lot - I have said it myself and read it all over the web, however looking at the latest nsidc update it seems that the situation is less cut and dried than that - definitely less perenial ice but the single year ice is thicker than one would intuit:

the first-year ice that formed since last autumn, while spatially extensive, has a mean thickness of 1.6 meters (5.2 feet), which is close to the thickness seen in 2006 and 2007. Much of this season's first-year ice formed rather late last autumn, so we had expected to see thinner first-year ice.

So why is the first-year ice thicker than anticipated? Sparse snow cover last winter may have hastened its growth: less snow on the ice means less insulation from the frigid winter air, and faster ice growth. Much of the snowfall over the Arctic Ocean occurs in early autumn, but early last autumn much of the Arctic Ocean was still ice-free and could not collect snow. Once the ice formed, it grew quickly.

Looking at the satellite images thickness is definitely worse than last year, just not as much as one would expect?

Trev

[Duncan McAlister]

Interestingly this has been said a lot - I have said it myself and read it all over the web, however looking at the latest nsidc update it seems that the situation is less cut and dried than that - definitely less perenial ice but the single year ice is thicker than one would intuit:

Looking at the satellite images thickness is definitely worse than last year, just not as much as one would expect?

Trev

Interesting that the very thinnest ice, the purple areas of the Russian/Siberian sector has stayed the course up 'til now, even after 4 months melting. In fact it's in better shape than last year.

[BrickFielder]

Global sea surface temperatures this year are below normal as they usually are during la nina and I don't expect to see any correlation between them and arctic ice melt. Heinrich events would suggest that sub surface temperatures can bring about a rapid disruption of the ice field although ominously perhaps these events usually trigger a much colder period afterwards.

Heinrich events

Personally I think wind fields across the arctic play an important role, by blowing ice into areas or warmer water and breaking up the ice. Think how an ice cude melts and then crunch up an ice cube into small bits and watch how it melts. Those wind fields can be linked to a stronger jet and thus stronger temperature contrasts between the poles and equator, thus indicating a warming at the equator. I am not sure how the melting will work out this year but the wind field across the arctic is showing a somewhat different pattern to last summer.

Hopefully Carinthian will come along with some reports from the scientists he knows about actual conditions up there.

Edited July 18, 2008 by BrickFielder

[Chris Knight]

Global sea surface temperatures this year are below normal as they usually are during la nina and I don't expect to see any correlation between them and arctic ice melt. Heinrich events would suggest that sub surface temperatures can bring about a rapid disruption of the ice field although ominously perhaps these events usually trigger a much colder period afterwards.

Heinrich events

Personally I think wind fields across the arctic play an important role, by blowing ice into areas or warmer water and breaking up the ice. Think how an ice cude melts and then crunch up an ice cube into small bits and watch how it melts. Those wind fields can be linked to a stronger jet and thus stronger temperature contrasts between the poles and equator, thus indicating a warming at the equator. I am not sure how the melting will work out this year but the wind field across the arctic is showing a somewhat different pattern to last summer.

Hopefully Carinthian will come along with some reports from the scientists he knows about actual conditions up there.

RV Polarstern has recently been working in the Fram Straits. 14th July report here

The recent conditions are mentioned:

...next morning, on July 7th, the moorings, which have been recovered the day before, are prepared for re-deployment. We have now a rhythm of doing mooring work during day and less crew-intensive work during night, since for the recovery and deployment of moorings a lot of crewmembers are necessary. Crew and scientists are working very professional.

We are now in the so-called AWI-Hausgarten and combine the benthic with the oceanographic work. Between 4 and 5° East the region was already covered by ice floes. The strong winds from north-westerly direction have transported a lot of ice into our research area. It is quite unusual that there is so much ice in this region. It is always fascinating when Polarstern breaks and moves through the ice. The sun was shining through the clouds although this area is often foggy. The air temperature is about zero degree with some snow showers. The strong wind with partially up to 8 Beaufort makes a wind chill of minus 17 degrees. Under these conditions it is hard to work on deck to recover and deploy the moorings.

The benthic work proceeds fast and the moorings in this region were also recovered and re-deployed without problems although the strong wind, ice and currents make it difficult to plan all activities. But that is not unusual in polar research, and crew and scientists are aware of such situations. During the next days we will still work in the Hausgarten before we continue the oceanographic studies towards the coast of Greenland.

location:

Wind from 040 at 10 knots

Barometer 1006.5 mb

Air temperature -0.7 ° C

Dewpoint -1.5 ° C

Water temperature -0.6 ° C

Edited July 18, 2008 by Chris Knight

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Global sea surface temperatures this year are below normal as they usually are during la nina and I don't expect to see any correlation between them and arctic ice melt. Heinrich events would suggest that sub surface temperatures can bring about a rapid disruption of the ice field although ominously perhaps these events usually trigger a much colder period afterwards.

Or how about the possibility of a Dansgaard-Oeschger event?

D-O events

[stormynight]

Hi all

Can anyone tell me the last time the ice on the pole was not attached to any land mass? As it looks like there is a chance of it this year.

The temps are set to rise over north and north west Greenland looking at gfs forecast for that area (if you trust the gfs that is) and you can see on this image a line stating to appear

around the north cost of Price Patrick Island and Greenland see link

http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/...MSRE_visual.png

What do you think? And what would happen if the pole ice was free floating in relation to the brake up and melt, any ideas?

Sorry if this has been asked before.

Thanks Me

[summer blizzard]

Looks as though the ice in the eastern Siberian region will go soon, though the north west passage looks like its handling conditions quite well.

Also, an inlet seems to have formed next to north west Greenland, this is quite worrying.

[oldsnowywizard]

looks like the good old polar vortex is forecast to strengthen in the artic region over the nex 7 days.. eventually bringing quite a large area of -10 850 temps and widespread below 0 temps.. if this actually happens it would be very early indeed in the season..

its usually late august where colder temps start to return to the arctic.

[summer blizzard]

We seem to have this discussion about -10C upper air temperatures appearing, and it is usually in the first half of August that they make an appearence.

[reef]

We seem to have this discussion about -10C upper air temperatures appearing, and it is usually in the first half of August that they make an appearence.

Though when they appear really has no effect on the upcoming winter.

A recent year with widespread early -10C 850hPa air was actually 2006 and we know how the following winter turned out:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/...00220060822.png

[oldsnowywizard]

We seem to have this discussion about -10C upper air temperatures appearing, and it is usually in the first half of August that they make an appearence.

mid to late august is more often normal, the forecast shows the end of July and Aug 1st.. not bad.. it wont do much apart from restrict ice melt a little in those colder areas, although there will be other factors melting the ice..

[carinthian]

Afternoon,

One part of the Arctic Ocean at the moment bucking the trend for the increasing loss of summer sea ice is to be found in the Laptev Sea between the East Coast of Siberia and the Taymyr Peninsula. Reports of solid ice concentration from the Arctic Cape into the Katanga Gulf. A good concentration of polar ice is also reported with-in the two main basins of the Arctic Ocean ( Angara, which drifts towards Greenland Svalbard and Laurentian which drifts towards Siberia). Surface tempertaures are heading to zero or below 0c with-in the main basin at the moment. Forecast is for some cold pooling for the last few days of July. I am increasingly confident, that last years record loss will not be beaten this summer.

C

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php

the outlook (June) still leans towards a match of last years sea ice amounts or even less ice than last years record melt

[oldsnowywizard]

yes a lean.. i would imagine the July report would have more of a balance.. i cant see there being a mass melt now.. although i guess all it would take is one very warm plume to set things in motion.

ps i notice that the -10 850 temps have gone.. still large areas of 0 850 temps though.

Edited July 29, 2008 by oldsnowywizard

[doctormog]

http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php

the outlook (June) still leans towards a match of last years sea ice amounts or even less ice than last years record melt

Interesting interpretation...

In raw (non-statistical terms) there are 10 forecasts to the right of last year's value and 4 to the left, unless I'm misreading it.

Given the highly significant deviation between the 2007 and 2008 picture right at the beginning of July, and which continues till the present, I think the June outlook is somewhat outdated, don't you?

[Jack Wales]

Although at this stage it seems unlikely we will match last years ice loss, it is interesting to note that the current temperature in Alert (Canada) is 16C!

Alert temp

Edited July 30, 2008 by Jack Wales

[Gray-Wolf]

Does anyone have any idea as to the impact of the lost peice of Ward Hunt on sea ice levels around Ellesmere Island? I take it we can expect a sudden 'growth' in ice levels in that region which is a little back to front when it represents a further errosion in Arctic ice levels.

I also believe that the area for possible sea ice development in the Arctic will now be greater this winter as the 'mask' for the ice level amounts will need amending tyo reflect this loss

[summer blizzard]

Snowing at Barrow Island, also you can see the pack ice just off the coast.

[Gray-Wolf]

So , for those who had an interest in how this year's predominance of single year ice would perform we are into the final 5 or 6 weeks of melt.

Though not a great 'fan' of the data from C.T. (thanks for the image by the way) I'll use it to illustrated my point.

As you can see mid Aug last year was where we see the ice levels effectively plateau. I personally believe that this was the point where high arctic 'new' ice balanced out the dribs and drabs of melt further south (melt into sept is not uncommon).

Over this summer a lot of solar energy has benn spent on further reducing the size/amount of multiyear. The area's of 'single year' ice seemed to melt quite quickly early in in the season.

From the charts released from the various authorities it wouls appear that not only is there a large amount of 'thin' ice still present across the arctic basin but also it is spread out ever thinner with no 'land fast' ice apparent (unlike in the Russian sector last year which effectively 'closed' the eastern passage).

I am still of the belief that last years appalling ice levels will be matched/exceeded by mid sept this year mainly on the back of the now 'warm' waters melting off the coastal ice but also due to the fragility of the single year ice that still remains in the high arctic. I also feel that melt will continue into sept with no 'month long plateau' occurring.

Contrary to my sig. I find no comfort from that which we have witnessed over the past 10yrs of arctic melt as I feel we are still unable to quantify the full impacts of an ice free Arctic (apart for the scramble to win the fossil fuels up there by Russia and Canada.....enhancing the existing global problems)