Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports

[rc28]

rc28

John Cox is a real stalwart on this site and a really keen "weather observer" in his native parts.

. Records and keeps data as well a watcher of nature and the seasons. John takes in a lot of interest on what experts have to say on netweather.tv forum. His posts and thoughts are highly valued by myself ,and I also know by some of the other experts on this forum.

C

Ok...that's great but how does it relate to my post? I merely qustioned how the 'summer temps have been the lowest in years' and I brought up the fact that the records show there is no real correlation between a cold summer and a cold winter in our small corner of the world.

[carinthian]

Ok...that's great but how does it relate to my post? I merely qustioned how the 'summer temps have been the lowest in years' and I brought up the fact that the records show there is no real correlation between a cold summer and a cold winter in our small corner of the world.

Your opinion appears absolut. John was passing his personal thoughts based on his own observations and was no way dogmatic . Some people correalate between cold summers and winters. Just look at the cold decade of the 60s nearer to these shores.

C

[ribster]

Preliminary satellite data shows us that surface melt began earlier than

usual over the western and central Arctic Ocean and Baffin Bay (see Figure 4). Last year was fairly typical except for significant early melt in the Laptev and Barents seas. This year, sea ice in the Beaufort Sea began to melt on average 15 days earlier than normal, and 15 days earlier than last year. Surface melt in the Chukchi and East Siberian seas was 6 days earlier than normal, and 14 days earlier than in 2007. In the central Arctic Ocean, melt began around June 9th, which was 12 days earlier than normal and 9 days earlier than the year before. In Baffin Bay, surface melt began 14 days earlier than last year and was 16 days earlier than normal. Areas where melt occurred later, compared to last year, are confined to the margins of the ice cover. These preliminary results will be updated as more data becomes available.

The above a a clip from the NSDIC 'arctic conditions' update page from July 2nd.

It appears that the 'locked in' weather patterns had little impact on the onset of melt. This coupled with the lack of perennial ice would lead me to still harbour some worries about the 'permanence' of the sea ice in those sectors this melt season.

Seeing as the 'record melt' of last year did not start to occur until July our upbeat reflection of conditions there may prove unfounded.

If we check the sea temp anom graphs you'll see that the sectors Corrinth highlighted are bathed in waters up to 4c above average temps (which must extend beneath the ice). As always we must temper the 2m temps with the sea water temps as ,just like with the paper scissor stone game, warm seas always win over cold 2m temps when it comes to melting ice (check out the 2m temps above Wilkins currently as it melts into the southern ocean ).

GW, is it just me, or is it that anyone makes a suggestion that for example things are better than this time last year, you immediately jump on it and try to present something to the contrary? Almost as if you have an agenda or some mission to convince us all otherwise. I know this forum is for healthy debate, but there are two sides to every story.

[Snowball Earth!]

No it's not just you ribster I for one feel that GW is on a mission

[carinthian]

with 8 to 10 weeks left and night time moving closer to the ice fringes every day.. it will be very interesting to see what will happen.

there is more surface ice around this year compared to last, which means less ocean to absorb energy and a higher albedo rate..

but as GW pointed out there will be factors working against the ice...

i really cant see us now losing more ice than last year..

interesting to note that Greenland set to get -30 2 m temps next week( usual ts and cs) does anybody know what the record low temp is for July?

hI osw,

Temperature profiles throughout the lower layers for the next 7 days show no advection of heat poleward into the Siberian Sectors . Large amounts of opening up of the present ice sheet now seems very unlikely, like lasts summers record. Fast ice continues to replace any off shore drift from the rim land mass. I think that low temperature forecast for Greenland will be on the high ice plateau. My memory takes me back to a record low at sea level occurred back in 1958.

Good grapthics again posted by osw.

C

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi Carinth,

A blast from the near past.

I hope you are keeping well and that you have had a good year weather wise.

Sunday here in Dublin was the 1st dry day since the June bank holiday weekend.

The SST's are different this summer and the night time temps here have been the lowest in Summer for a very long time.

So..... This coming winter, perhaps we are in fora BIG change

Hi John

I think for us it will be a gradual change but the intense cold of last year will be knocking close to our door a bit more. Watch out for very early big snows in Europe IMO as although no record I think a big icemelt will produce another negative temp feedback like last winter.....but more widespread.

BFTP

[John Cox]

Hi Carinth,BFTP and rc28,

Greetings to you all and although I have not posted much in recent months I follow with keen interest all your posts.

No doubt about it, but the cooling of Europe is of paramount importance for a really cold blast of wintry weather for the British Isles like winters of past years.

RC28 the SST's as far as I know are for temperatures on the surface of the seas and not a measurement of the Gulf stream which is deeper. Much more ice in polar regions this year compared to this time last year must be a positive too for the coming winter. Its just a question of getting as much pieces in place in order for us to have a better chance of get a cold winter. Many on NW have said that the SST's are of major influence on our weather

Carinth, keep up the great work here on NW and thank you for all your kind words. BFTP, I read with interest your posts as they are always very informative.

rc26, I look forward to getting to know you too as we live not too far from each other.

Edited July 16, 2008 by John Cox

[osmposm]

RC28 the SST's as far as I know are for temperatures on the surface of the seas and not a measurement of the Gulf stream which is deeper.

Um, of course SSTs are temps on the surface - SST stands for Sea Surface Temperature!

But you're wrong about the Gulf Stream, it is indeed essentially a surface current (down to c 2000m), which is why it can be clearly seen in temperature reading satellite images. It is caused primarily by the wind, and the closer to the surface you measure, the faster it flows. Here is quite a good and succinct description of its properties: http://www.theartemistransat.com/60/article.asp?sid=15167

[Iceberg]

Sorry John I am trying to stay clear from these threads for a few days to let things become clearly up there , butI think the statement " Much more ice in polar regions this year compared to this time last year must be a positive too for the coming winter" is maybe a little optimistic.

We are talking about -1.3million sq km instead of -1.6million sq km (currently without the debate of what's going to happen to the 1st year ice). Instead of the least summer ice since we started measuring even the most conservative estimate would put it as the second least amount of summer ice.

[John Cox]

Hi osmposm and Iceberg

Thanks for the education in this area, much appreciated as always.

[Gray-Wolf]

Sorry John I am trying to stay clear from these threads for a few days to let things become clearly up there ,

Never a truer word spoken! We have had 5 days of cloud over the areas we need monitor most closely so goodness knows what things will look like when we get a break in the clouds. Have the clouds acted like a blanket keeping the warmth of the seas locked in or have they pegged back temps reducing melt rates???

[karyo]

Never a truer word spoken! We have had 5 days of cloud over the areas we need monitor most closely so goodness knows what things will look like when we get a break in the clouds. Have the clouds acted like a blanket keeping the warmth of the seas locked in or have they pegged back temps reducing melt rates???

At this time of the year, cloud cover can only be good for ice retention/slower melt as the sun is still very strong. The opposite applies to wintertime when clear skies achieve the lowest temperatures.

Karyo

[carinthian]

A big difference in ice conditions in the high Russian Arctic this summer compared to this time last year. No poleward heat plumes as yet with low pressure circulation over the Verkhoyanskiy massif the main feature. This circulation helps the westward push of fast ice out of the East Siberian Sea to replace off shore drift of ice away from the Lena Delta into the Laptev Sea. At the present time, there is around half a million sq km more sea ice recorded in the combined waters of the laptev and East Siberian Seas than Mid -July 2007, that is an impressive turnaround,considering lasts years record loss. The concentration of ice remains at nearly 100% along much of this area of the Arctic Rim . Also, I can report a good concentration of polar ice off the North and East coastline of Svalbard and the same for Franz Josef Land, with the North Barent Sea fairing much better than a year ago.

C

Hello Again,

Just to clarify part of the above post,a combination of the presence of cyclonic circulation and Transpolar drift moves the ice sheet East to West in Northern Russia. (ie ) hence the present in-fill in the Laptev Sea

C.

[oldsnowywizard]

its quite interesting comparing the 850 temps this year with last year at the same time.. i know its in the future so could change.. but look at the date 24th July...

last year there was only a small pool of 0 850 temps... this year.. its pratcically the whole of the arctic!

[Polar Continental]

its quite interesting comparing the 850 temps this year with last year at the same time.. i know its in the future so could change.. but look at the date 24th July...

last year there was only a small pool of 0 850 temps... this year.. its pratcically the whole of the arctic!

Hi osw,

Yes I was comparing 850 temperatures only yesterday’s to last years at this time and noticed cold pooling does seem relatively more widespread this summer, below are snap shotsof today and the same time last year, working through a week or so ahead the cold pooling is evidently more widespread, obviously there is still some time to go and it is still warming up there until the first couple of weeks in to August.

Also surface temperatures over the Greenland shelf are quite low at the moment.

Paul

[carinthian]

Hi osw,

Yes I was comparing 850 temperatures only yesterday’s to last years at this time and noticed cold pooling does seem relatively more widespread this summer, below are snap shotsof today and the same time last year, working through a week or so ahead the cold pooling is evidently more widespread, obviously there is still some time to go and it is still warming up there until the first couple of weeks in to August.

Also surface temperatures over the Greenland shelf are quite low at the moment.

Paul

Well spotted Paul,

Also, note the heat plumes much further south in all continents of the Northern Hemisphere

Cll

Edited July 17, 2008 by carinthian

[SMU]

Well spotted Paul,

Also, note the heat plumes much further south in all continents of the Northern Hemisphere

Cll

Not to mention there all be sheared Eastwards rather than pluming Northwards- indicitive of the jet being faster & at a lower lattitude...

Look at the june 200 MB wind anomalies- BYE BYE PLUMES....

Now look at Aug 76-

Totally different-

S

Edited July 17, 2008 by Steve Murr

[Polar Continental]

Well spotted Paul,

Also, note the heat plumes much further south in all continents of the Northern Hemisphere

Cll

Hi carinthian,

Glad to see you are continuing to keep us all updated in here and I see John C is back posting again, always good to read his contributions.

Yes the heat plumes are struggling to make much northward progress, one only have to check out the model thread to read the many dozens of posts complaining of our lack of summer heat on our shores this year.

In interesting few weeks ahead to see how the Arctic ice survives the season, I would imagine there are many scientific eyes watching the situation very closely this year.

Paul

Ps cheers Steve for your wind anomalies charts, good examples and the reason why the summer is so lacking in Spanish plumes.

[John Cox]

Thanks Paul,

You are a real stalwarth here on NW and love to see your regular postings.

I am going to have to spend some time reading past posts on this topic to bring myself up to date.

I just love this cooler summer and hope it is a prelude to a colder winter, fingers crossed.

[Stu_London]

We are now nearer the mean than last years record minimum as per this graph for the first time since very early in the melting season

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/..._timeseries.png

Lower surface temperatures can only help the 2008 line nearer to the mean.

Half way though summer and I think we can be guardedly optimistic that last year did not in fact signify a tipping point and increases in arctic ice cover are still possible.

[SMU]

Now look at Aug 76-

1995-

S

[Stu_London]

Would appear to me that in 76 and 95, there was not much in the way of a Northern jet - very much in contrast to this summer

It begs the question however: -

Last year we had a summer dominated by the jet similarly to this summer, yet there was still a load of melting in the arctic principally due to warm plumes and sunshine.

Is it fair to say that last year the northern jet only really affected the North Atlantic region, whereas this year it is pretty much global? Or is it just that the AO is more negative this year.

Also, does a strong northern jet in summer strengthen to give a stormy Autumn?

sorry to go o/t

[jethro]

Apologies if this is me being really dense (don't all shout yes at once)... what is the significance of 76 and 95? Why those two years in particular?

[Stu_London]

Apologies if this is me being really dense (don't all shout yes at once)... what is the significance of 76 and 95? Why those two years in particular?

Two notably warm and sunny summers in the UK

Ranked no 1 and 2 respectively in the 20th Century I think.... (await Mr D to correct me!)

[jethro]

Two notably warm and sunny summers in the UK

Ranked no 1 and 2 respectively in the 20th Century I think.... (await Mr D to correct me!)

Thank you! And I didn't even hear "thicko", you must have whispered it...