Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports

[oldsnowywizard]

As it was last year with the Eastern passage blocked by drifted multiyear ice . This year the Eastern passage is also forecast to be open by August so we'll just have to sit back and watch. If it is then that's another batch of perennial turned back into water .

hopefully the world will take note then.. mind you they will probably have a meeting to agree after days of talks, to decide that there is indeed a problem.. just like the UN seems to do

there are positives in relation to last year.. at least the nsdic chart shows the rate of melt is not as bad as last year... long may this continue.

[Mr Sleet]

As it was last year with the Eastern passage blocked by drifted multiyear ice . This year the Eastern passage is also forecast to be open by August so we'll just have to sit back and watch. If it is then that's another batch of perennial turned back into water .

Oh dear, yet more spin GW you naughty boy !

The eastern passage opens up fairly often as far as I can see, I have picked one year at random (1995 ) although I haven't done a thorough analysis. see below :

So it's not as though it's always been perennial ice.

Edited June 25, 2008 by Mr Sleet

[Gray-Wolf]

Mr S.

Please read my post. Last year , once mobile ,a large mass of perennial ice choked a small section of the Eastern passage making it impassible. This year that 'log jam' will melt and the passage will open again. And yes, over the past 15 years (since the rapid melt of that side of the arctic) a clear Eastern passage has been a regular visitor in mid Aug on. The 'hot weather' to the lands north of the Baltic over winter resulting in the lowest winter ice levels ever measured there will, in all probability, mean the passage is open at the same time as the NW passage.

If comp.s are planning to send large ships over the top then the soot they will pump out may well help condemn the ice in the high arctic too as the lowered albedo allows perennial ablation rates to jump up.

Edited June 25, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[cheeky_monkey]

Oh dear, yet more spin GW you naughty boy !

The eastern passage opens up fairly often as far as I can see, I have picked one year at random (1995 ) although I haven't done a thorough analysis. see below :

So it's not as though it's always been perennial ice.

dont want 2 rain on your parade but the date you have picked is the 6th sept 1995..not 9th june 1995...americans rite months\and days other way round..lol

[Mr Sleet]

dont want 2 rain on your parade but the date you have picked is the 6th sept 1995..not 9th june 1995...americans rite months\and days other way round..lol

You are not raining on my parade, I picked the 6th September 1995 because that was around the date of the ice area minimum

Mr S.

Please read my post. Last year , once mobile ,a large mass of perennial ice choked a small section of the Eastern passage making it impassible. This year that 'log jam' will melt and the passage will open again. And yes, over the past 15 years (since the rapid melt of that side of the arctic) a clear Eastern passage has been a regular visitor in mid Aug on. The 'hot weather' to the lands north of the Baltic over winter resulting in the lowest winter ice levels ever measured there will, in all probability, mean the passage is open at the same time as the NW passage.

If comp.s are planning to send large ships over the top then the soot they will pump out may well help condemn the ice in the high arctic too as the lowered albedo allows perennial ablation rates to jump up.

Nah, the ice you refer to wasn't a floating bit that choked the channel in 2007, it never actually melted from the winter and remained anchored to the main arctic basin ice. I was following that with interest. A quick look back will confirm that.

Also open in Sept 1984, 24years ago. Doesn't look like the ice is all that perennial to me

But I do agree with you about the soot, that is not good.

Edited June 26, 2008 by Mr Sleet

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Doom'n'Gloom in the Telegraph

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtm...27/eaice127.xml

Arctic sea ice is now retreating so quickly that scientists say there is now a 50-50 chance that it will have gone completely by September.

[Gray-Wolf]

Down on the enviro Arctic thread someone has linked to the Indi' which has run a similar story. None of this is 'new' and the papers were linked to on both threads dealing with the actic in April/may.

On the strength of their convictions NSIDC have left some ocean going buoys on the ice around the pole awaiting the melt.

I know the banner and opening para's are a bit jurnoish but ther content is is from the press statements/releases when the news was 'current' (as linked to). Still..........................

.........................nice and sunny up there at the mo (with a big meltwater pool in the foreground).

Edited June 27, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[Duncan McAlister]

Doom'n'Gloom in the Telegraph

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtm...27/eaice127.xml

Arctic sea ice is now retreating so quickly that scientists say there is now a 50-50 chance that it will have gone completely by September.

Just to clarify, the previous sentence says "Ice at the North Pole may disappear completely within the next few months for the first time in 20,000 years." This is due to a large area of first-year ice at the pole, but there is still some multi-year ice to the North of Greenland and Canada (see http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/c...ole-855406.html) It's not a 50/50 chance that the whole Arctic will be ice-free by September.

Edited June 27, 2008 by Duncan McAlister

[Gray-Wolf]

Just to clarify, the previous sentence says "Ice at the North Pole may disappear completely within the next few months for the first time in 20,000 years." This is due to a large area of first-year ice at the pole, but there is still some multi-year ice to the North of Greenland and Canada (see http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/c...ole-855406.html) It's not a 50/50 chance that the whole Arctic will be ice-free by September.

And that appears to be the jurnoh slant. The quotes make it quite plain that it is "the geographical Pole" that has a 50/50 chance of being ice free and not the whole arctic. :o

[Gray-Wolf]

Lovely ,snow eating , 6.5c up at the pole today. You can see how large the suface melt pool is becoming and this will route out any faults (movement cracks) and perculate thrtough them (thanks to gravity). This in turn will widen the cracks aiding disintegration.

Will it/won't it be free floating by mid sept? looks very likely from where I'm sitting with two and a half months of melt ahead

EDIT: Seeing as the pole is obviously clear I took a skquizz over using MODIS Terra and there is so much small ice now (compared to large floes) that soon it'll suddenly present as clear water (esp. if the 6.5c temps persist).

Edited June 29, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[tundra]

READ ALL ABOUT IT. READ ALL ABOUT IT. Melt pool found in the high artic. come on GW give us all a break.

[Red Raven]

READ ALL ABOUT IT. READ ALL ABOUT IT. Melt pool found in the high artic. come on GW give us all a break.

6.5 deg C and pools of water on top of ice pack indicate that a period of above freezing temperatures of more than several days has been experienced. The average summer temperature is -1.5. Don't you think GW is right to be concerned?

[laserguy]

6.5 deg C and pools of water on top of ice pack indicate that a period of above freezing temperatures of more than several days has been experienced. The average summer temperature is -1.5. Don't you think GW is right to be concerned?

Possibly. Possibly not. What concerns me is the reasons popularly attributed (AGW)to what may or may not be nothing unusual,and the lunatic ideas of 'tackling' it. We sit and watch and await any consequences with baited breath,or speculate what may happen and plan accordingly. Any talk of causing or being able to prevent/influence such things belongs squarely in a science fiction novel. I dare say I'd also be concerned if I was tethered to a railway line with hardened steel cables and a loco was bearing down on me,but I'd have to accept that in such a situation I'd be as powerless as I'd be trying to steer the course of nature.

[Chris Knight]

6.5 deg C and pools of water on top of ice pack indicate that a period of above freezing temperatures of more than several days has been experienced. The average summer temperature is -1.5. Don't you think GW is right to be concerned?

Weather data from the NOAA polar drifting buoy, near the webcam above, at about 85deg N, 0deg E:

Temperatures are hovering around the summer max now.

for comparison, here are last year's plots:

note that some of the observations ended in July and August due to the instability of the ice floes.

From The NOAA Arctic theme gallery pages link

[Turnedoutniceagain]

6.5 deg C and pools of water on top of ice pack indicate that a period of above freezing temperatures of more than several days has been experienced. The average summer temperature is -1.5. Don't you think GW is right to be concerned?

It's good news for the Oilmen. Far easier to transport it than when the north is frozen up.

[laserguy]

It's good news for the Oilmen. Far easier to transport it than when the north is frozen up.

Yep,it couldn't have come at a better time,all things considered. Best 'make hay while the sun shines'!

[Gray-Wolf]

Another lovely day at the pole and ,if you look to the middle distance, you can see other 'puddles' forming. Temp still 5c so no surprises that melt should be occurring.

I imagined any breakup to be from the edge in but it looks like it will be the environment it's sitting in that does for this ice and not erosion from the seaward side (facing the Bering straights).

For those who find all of this 'humdrum', we, good for you! I ,personally, have never seen/heard of the likes before and we are only at the start of summer melt proper

[jethro]

Another lovely day at the pole and ,if you look to the middle distance, you can see other 'puddles' forming. Temp still 5c so no surprises that melt should be occurring.

I imagined any breakup to be from the edge in but it looks like it will be the environment it's sitting in that does for this ice and not erosion from the seaward side (facing the Bering straights).

For those who find all of this 'humdrum', we, good for you! I ,personally, have never seen/heard of the likes before and we are only at the start of summer melt proper

GW, over the last say, 10 years would you say one area above all others has suffered more loss than others - if so, which North, South, East or West Arctic? Or has the loss been fairly average over the entire area?

[Chris Knight]

Another lovely day at the pole and ,if you look to the middle distance, you can see other 'puddles' forming. Temp still 5c so no surprises that melt should be occurring.

I imagined any breakup to be from the edge in but it looks like it will be the environment it's sitting in that does for this ice and not erosion from the seaward side (facing the Bering straights).

For those who find all of this 'humdrum', we, good for you! I ,personally, have never seen/heard of the likes before and we are only at the start of summer melt proper

Last year:

This year:

[Gray-Wolf]

Jethro, From what I can remember the small area barring the Bering straights still had perennial ice welded across the sea bed 10 yrs ago.

In 2005 we had a small natter at the end of the summer as a large Polynya has opened up on the Alaskan side behind the straights.

From then on ,year on year the perennial ice behind Bering has been eaten back resulting in the circulation we witnessed last year.

This is why the geographical pole could melt this year as this is how far 'in' the ice had been eaten away from Bering.

The 'Arctic Current' flowing out by Greenland seems to be a convenient outlet (via the deep channel NW Passage).

Be it currents driven by anticyclonic circulation or be it temp/saline driven there appears, to me, to be a warm entry via Bering and a cold exit down the west coast of Greenland.

The fact that there is a current working into the pole would suggest that the summer melt is more dependent on the opening of the Bering sea than the arrival of a polar ,blocking ,anticyclone.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Possibly. Possibly not. What concerns me is the reasons popularly attributed (AGW)to what may or may not be nothing unusual,and the lunatic ideas of 'tackling' it. We sit and watch and await any consequences with baited breath,or speculate what may happen and plan accordingly. Any talk of causing or being able to prevent/influence such things belongs squarely in a science fiction novel.

...

I'm getting very tired of the extremely hypocritical argument that reducing the extent to which our activities may be impacting climate is "manipulating the climate". Or that we can't influence the extent to which we influence the climate, which is a self-contradictory argument. It's been addressed sixty centrillion times but it still gets trotted out ad nauseum, backed up by the extremely convincing (not) argument of "I'm right because I'm right, end of story".

On the ice melt front, it remains the case that we seem to have greater coverage than this time last year, but generally thinner ice. Early July last year had a particularly rapid melt as >10C 850hPa air took up residence over northern Asia, which looks unlikely to happen this time around, though we do have 5C 850hPa air knocking on the door which is still above the average.

If you compare ice extents with past years, you may find that certain years, most notably 1995, had large melt over certain areas- in 1995 it was the Asian sector that had unusually high melting. But the overall areal coverage was higher than in 2007.

[Gray-Wolf]

Looking very wet up there now. You can see just how quick the meltwater pools start to take over!

[davehsug]

Looking very wet up there now. You can see just how quick the meltwater pools start to take over!

Very pretty pictures GW, but apart from that what is the point? Ice & snow melt at temperatures above 0 celsius. We know that. It isn't the first time that temperatures at the pole have been above 0 & it won't be the last. Webcams now give us all the chance to see it.

That's all

Dave

[jethro]

Sorry if you've said already and I've missed it, but where is that camera? Oh and I know it's not Grimsby....

[jethro]

Ignore that last message, I've found it: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_np.html