Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports

[osmposm]

I can't seem to post images today....but If you take a look at the pole you'll see the orange buoy in the middle distance has moved relative to the mounting station. Also the 'wave height' in the meltwater pool is a lot higher than of late. Seem like stuff is already happening up there.

I don't understand these observations - presumably the most likely reason for the waves being bigger is that the wind is stronger...

As for the position of the yellowish object (which moves in both directions on today's two images).....look at the image of the big foreground station or object on the left: it also moves relative to the camera when the 'buoy' moves (and also the middle-distance object on the right). The most likely explanation therefore is that the camera has moved slightly - either in the wind or by human hand.

And even if the 'buoy' had moved, so what? As I've just been trying to explain, the whole pack is - and probably alway was - highly mobile both as a whole and within it. That's why there are pressure ridges visible in the distance, they show that sections of the ice within sight have moved relative to each before. And besides, because of the overall drift, the webcam is most probably no longer particularly close to the pole anyway!

The loss of Polar ice is a worrying reality; but your sometimes rather hysterical take on every minute observation or imagined observation doesn't really help our analysis of it. Calm down, and look at the longer, larger picture.

Edited July 6, 2008 by osmposm

[osmposm]

Sorry, GW, tried to edit it but I was too late: I withdraw the word "hysterical" and will say, um, "over-enthusiastic" instead! :lol:

[Filski]

As for the position of the yellowish object (which moves in both directions on today's two images).....look at the image of the big foreground station or object on the left: it also moves relative to the camera when the 'buoy' moves (and also the middle-distance object on the right). The most likely explanation therefore is that the camera has moved slightly - either in the wind or by human hand.

The camera is in the same position on the station it's mounted on. It is also in roughly the same position relative to the ice edge in front. More than one of the objects in the image are now moving independantly of each other.

[Chris Knight]

The camera is in the same position on the station it's mounted on. It is also in roughly the same position relative to the ice edge in front. More than one of the objects in the image are now moving independantly of each other.

If you look at the animation for webcam 1 (BIG FILE), the movement relative to the other parts of the deployment can be readily seen

[osmposm]

The camera is in the same position on the station it's mounted on. It is also in roughly the same position relative to the ice edge in front. More than one of the objects in the image are now moving independantly of each other.

Sorry, Filski, but if the station the camera is mounted on is the large object with letters foreground left, then the camera has without question moved relative to it.

Here are images for the 30th June, 1st July and 5th July (as posted here by GW). Save them and flip quickly between them. Look carefully - everything is stable in first three images (30 June/1st July), but in the last two (5th July) the camera moves first slightly right (0538 image) then quite a lot left (1830 image): compare the position of the up left letters relative to the screen edge. And as the camera moves, so do the objects in the middle distance - apparently.

Chris, that animation only seems to go up to the 23rd June, though some camera movement is apparent there, too.

Edited July 6, 2008 by osmposm

[Turnedoutniceagain]

http://www.nilu.no/niluweb/services/zeppelin/

Stunning evening in Svalbard. There was a whiteout 2 days ago, but looks nice now.

[Filski]

Thanks guys, just saw the replies after I'd done my own photoshop comparison. You're quite right.

[Chris Knight]

Sorry, Filski, but if the station the camera is mounted on is the large object with letters foreground left, then the camera has without question moved relative to it.

Here are images for the 30th June, 1st July and 5th July (as posted here by GW). Save them and flip quickly between them. Look carefully - everything is stable in first three images (30 June/1st July), but in the last two (5th July) the camera moves first slightly right (0538 image) then quite a lot left (1830 image): compare the position of the up left letters relative to the screen edge. And as the camera moves, so do the objects in the middle distance - apparently.

Chris, that animation only seems to go up to the 23rd June, though some camera movement is apparent there, too.

They apparently update approximately weekly, an update is due soonish. I am looking forward to seeing the weather data file update.

[Gray-Wolf]

well at least we all seem to be in agreement that summat's moved :o

today's first image lets you see the multiyear chunk in the middle distance a lot clearer. If you check over these last 2 images you'll see that the 'pond' now has banks and 2 distinct wave cut platforms suggesting that, over the windy days when there were waves on the pond, the ice rose up. Could this indicate that the 'pond' is now connected to the sea below?, might these changes have led to the 'settling' of the camera mount over the last few days?

Edited July 7, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[oldsnowywizard]

based on current conditions..

another 2 months of melt... (dont let the min value of 3million in the middle of August fool you, melt can occur in Sep)

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/de...eetmp.29803.png

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_01b.fnl.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

so where do we stand? - bad in comparison to the mean, but better than last year

can things change? - absolutely!

forecast - looks like some warmer temps will be heading towards the Russian sectors with somewhat cooler conditions back to Canadian sectors of the arctic.

[Gray-Wolf]

The loss of images yesterday must have something to do with the change of position of the camera platform. Are we now afloat? The next few images will show us (bobbing up and down like this!) . Web cam 2 had this yesterday

Note the height of the snow above the water line. The other thread contends that it may be increased snowfall or the result of ice melt/snow melt.......hmmmm.

[Jack Wales]

I'm no expert on the cryosphere but to me there is more cause for optimism after last years record melt in the NH. At the moment we are almost 1m sq km up on last year in terms of ice cover. Also the "first year ice" has not rapidly melted as some predicted in June.

I reaslise that there are still 1 - 2 months of thaw left but IMO I don't think we'll reach the low minima of 2007.

[Gray-Wolf]

so where do we stand? - bad in comparison to the mean, but better than last year

can things change? - absolutely!

forecast - looks like some warmer temps will be heading towards the Russian sectors with somewhat cooler conditions back to Canadian sectors of the arctic.

It is difficult ,both in the north and south, to read the 'extent' figures at times. When you 'fly over you can see that the area is in rapid melt (meltwater pools breaking into tiny floes) but the 'graphs' show an apparent slowdown on last years rate. Though the change isn't apparent by looking at the graphs alone we are on the cusp of rapid ice level reduction with most of the areas expected to melt in tiny bits....even the NW passage deep water channel is melting from both ends with only the central section 'jammed'.

With the warmth expected in the Russian sector and the state of melt over on the Canadian side I'd expect to see the 'collapse rate' become very steep over the next 2 weeks as the 'little floes' disappear.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I'm no expert on the cryosphere but to me there is more cause for optimism after last years record melt in the NH. At the moment we are almost 1m sq km up on last year in terms of ice cover. Also the "first year ice" has not rapidly melted as some predicted in June.

I reaslise that there are still 1 - 2 months of thaw left but IMO I don't think we'll reach the low minima of 2007.

Looking at the 850 forecast even into deep FI there are no heat plumes to enter the arctic. Seems like a protective rim up there this year. Of course FI is FI but still interesting.

BFTP

[BUSHY]

It is difficult ,both in the north and south, to read the 'extent' figures at times. When you atc bla bla

You will excuse me saying so GW but that post of your is total crud. Are you really that that keen to see global disaster and mayhem that you actively look for any excuse or are you just trying to wind us all up. Yes of course the flipping ice is melting ---- its summer.

[oldsnowywizard]

Note the height of the snow above the water line. The other thread contends that it may be increased snowfall or the result of ice melt/snow melt.......hmmmm.

probably a combination of everything.. the warmer temps predicted earlier dont appear to make that much inrodes into the russian sectors.. on the fringes perhaps.. current indications are some average temps forecast again.. if you check out te 850s there is even a -10 figure that makes itslef shown.. of course in slight FI

[Mr Sleet]

even the NW passage deep water channel is melting from both ends with only the central section 'jammed'.

Patently untrue.

Doesn't look like the eastern passage will open either.

Just a thought, could we keep these environmental speculations to the Enviro thread ? Why duplicate it on both ?

[Gray-Wolf]

Hows about having a look at the real world Mr Sleet (http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/2008192/ and the rest who wish to confirm/dismiss my observations) instead of playing with the pretty colours?

The pretty pictures you rely on obviously cannot show the level of detail needed, it's like having a dam and you monitoring it (for the towns below) with equipment that tells you it's either there or not......not good. With the sat images you get to see the first hairline cracks appearing and ,as such, are in a much better position to carry out your 'duty of care' to those below the dam.

It's the same on these boards. The 'duty of care ' we owe to the 'lurkers' carries with it great responsibility.

They neither wish ,nor are willing, to enter the board and so rely upon our good selves to provide them with as 'accurate picture' of the current polar situation as we can. Neither snipping or 'old news' aids them in that. Or am I wrong?

[reef]

This site paints a more detailed picture:

http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/...MSRE_visual.png

The north-west and eastern passages both look pretty healthy at the moment, with any open waters looking distinctly far off for now. The main area of melting is the Beaufort Sea, with a large area of open water present and a low concentration of ice well into the Arctic Basin. The Siberian side however is doing well, with the ice being of a high concentration, though several large polynas are present.

[doctormog]

Hows about having a look at the real world Mr Sleet (http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/2008192/ and the rest who wish to confirm/dismiss my observations) instead of playing with the pretty colours?

A point you seem to miss (or if I'm being harsh) ignore (?) is that these images such as the NASA Rapidfire ones in isolation are of only so much use. Yes, they provide an excellent "real" look at the current situation and are invaluable for that reason but to make a valid comparison with previous years, last year in particular the corresponding e.g. July 10th 2007 must also be looked at.

I've had a glance at these images and they still suggest a generally more healthy picture compared with last year.

Have you got evidence that this is not the case?

[Mr Sleet]

They neither wish ,nor are willing, to enter the board and so rely upon our good selves to provide them with as 'accurate picture' of the current polar situation as we can. Neither snipping or 'old news' aids them in that. Or am I wrong?

I think we can share some good banter GW but I think most reasonable posters/lurkers can see that you have lost the plot old chap !

[SteveB]

To me as a lurker, the Northern sea ice is looking better than it did last year. And the Southern sea ice is looking better than it did last year .

[osmposm]

You will excuse me saying so GW but that post of your is total crud. Are you really that that keen to see global disaster and mayhem that you actively look for any excuse or are you just trying to wind us all up. Yes of course the flipping ice is melting ---- its summer.

You will excuse me saying so, Bushy, but that post of yours adds little to the discussion.

GW may have an over-enthusiastic bent towards the super-melt, but at least - usually - he offers his opinions on the subject backed by observations. His interpretation of those observations is highly debatable, but simply saying it's 'crud' and quoting him as 'bla bla etc" only encourages similar abuse in return.

[BUSHY]

Yes you are absolutely right. Sorry GW.

[The Eagle]

This is were we are - fact

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/..._timeseries.png

Vast improvement on last year. As I said almost 1 million sq kms extra sea ice this year compared to the last year and the rate and extent of melt is now moving toward the 30 year average. If this continues we will see the fastest recovery this winter for probrably the last 20 years at least IMO. Seems the pendulum is swinging.

Edited July 10, 2008 by Darkman