Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports

[SMU]

I have to support TWS thoughts at the present time. A large surface high has developed over the past 7 days ,covering much of Arctic Basin from the Beaufort to the Barent. Still conditions are best for retention of ice and with soundings showing a pronounced inversion layer,cold surface air is trapped below 950 mb height, even though the upper layers of the atmosphere remain above freezing.

C

We may be busy agreeing with TWS- however after yesterdays release from NSIDC im not so sure-

The graph showing the rate of melt for 08 V 07 is getting VERY Close.........

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/index.html

S

[carinthian]

We may be busy agreeing with TWS- however after yesterdays release from NSIDC im not so sure-

The graph showing the rate of melt for 08 V 07 is getting VERY Close.........

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/index.html

S

Yes, Steve, a very close run thing,however, I still think we should not go as low as last summer. The next few weeks will be very crucial with the atmospheric conditions to determine the final outcome. The next set of charts will be the St Petersburg Sea Charts, these monitor results from Radar, Satellite and surface observations. These are the charts I read for best year on comparisons.

Cheers

C

[Gray-Wolf]

Whilst we focus in on the final figures we should all remain mindful of what an 'average' melt season, temp wise, it has been this year yet the single year ice has still delivered us the second lowest ice extent on record and with a good chance of exceeding last years record low.

Worrying times?

[stewfox]

I doubt it as we are already approx 1/2m sq km from the 2007 minima. It looks as we are now approaching the 2008 minima from the graph on CT...

Cryosphere Today NH Sea Ice

Any further losses should be offset by gains in the high arctic although IMO it's still too early to completely rule out surpassing the 2007 minima.

As a 'layman' with an interest can you clarify what you mean?

You state we are 1 or 2 millions square km of the minima, which one is it 1 or 2 ?

You're saying it's unlikely we will reach the 2007 minima but then say it might happen

I.e. wait and see

What's happen to the more details stats ?

[oldsnowywizard]

Whilst we focus in on the final figures we should all remain mindful of what an 'average' melt season, temp wise, it has been this year yet the single year ice has still delivered us the second lowest ice extent on record and with a good chance of exceeding last years record low.

Worrying times?

yes worrying.. im not too sure it was average though... remember the thin single year ice only really started melting in August after warm plumes arrived from siberia.. considering where we went to last year and where we are and potentially likely to end up it isnt too bad.. for this year.. next year of course could be a completely different matter..

[mezzacyclone]

As a 'layman' with an interest can you clarify what you mean?

You state we are 1 or 2 millions square km of the minima, which one is it 1 or 2 ?

You're saying it's unlikely we will reach the 2007 minima but then say it might happen

I.e. wait and see

What's happen to the more details stats ?

I believe Jack`s referring to a half Stew,

(Without wishing to sound daft? the symbol for a half isn't available on standard keyboards etc. so has to be copy n pasted from character code 00BD unicode hex eg. ½)

to add further, last year end of Aug and beginning of Sep did run shallower so conditions better pick up fast else 07 will be surpassed ?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Whilst we focus in on the final figures we should all remain mindful of what an 'average' melt season, temp wise, it has been this year yet the single year ice has still delivered us the second lowest ice extent on record and with a good chance of exceeding last years record low.

Worrying times?

Yes very worrying, major arctic melt is a prequel to an ice age.

BFTP

[Frosty.]

Yes very worrying, major arctic melt is a prequel to an ice age.

BFTP

Let's have an indian summer first.

[Snow Leopard]

Here is a thought, maybe 2008 is going to be a slight recovery on 2007. All this talk of "is it going to pass the 2007 record" or "second lowest ice extent ever" sounds like the proverbial glass half empty scenario. Surely a recovery of the record ice loss of last year, as I understand it largely due to local climatic conditions in the Arctic anyway, is also a possibility? And will this recovery not take a few years to occur as well? I am no expert on the matter but I do read a lot about it and it seems to me that there is a fair bit of disaggreement, even amongst the professionals, that what happened up there last year may actually be part of a normal cycle.

Anyway, by many accounts it seems we are heading to a cooler cycle for the next decade or so, so I would expect a gradual recovery of sea ice over the next few years.

Edited August 28, 2008 by Snow Leopard

[Thundery wintry showers]

While I've kept querying the relative importance of SSTs relative to airmasses, one area where I disagree with Iceberg et al. is the notion that Arctic temperatures are below average. For instance, take a peek at yesterday's temp anomalies:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/sfc...er_01b.fnl.html

Temperatures have been above average, often by a long way, over the Siberian sector for a while, which also happens to be where most of the melting has occurred.

I'm not saying that SSTs are irrelevant- obviously the higher SSTs will create a background bias towards increased melting, but the main point is, the airmasses affecting the pole are the main variable to watch for that will influence the rate of melt- variation in SSTs tends to be a much longer-term thing and less subject to short-term fluctuation.

Good news for ice retention is that temps look like returning to normal mostly over the next fortnight- although watch out for a deep southerly plume at around T+144 on the GFS, penetrating temporarily but surely towards the pole, with 850's of up to 10-15C.

Edited August 28, 2008 by Thundery wintry showers

[Rich_Clements]

Interesting reading, I read this earlier then found an article on the BBC news website stating the same as discussed above.

BBC Article on Arctic sea ice melt

[Iceberg]

I think over the whole season arctic temps have been around average and certainly alot lower than last year.

CT and all other ice indicators are continuing to decline.

[oldsnowywizard]

I think over the whole season arctic temps have been around average and certainly alot lower than last year.

CT and all other ice indicators are continuing to decline.

CT has a week or so lag time compared to NSIDC which i had forgotten, hence the confusion over the difference in what the charts were showing. CT is now showing the continued decline.. NSIDC now has the melt rate levelling off.. thanks goodness! we should finally see things plateauing out now.. so close between last year and this year.. lets hope there are some major snow storms to help bring back some depth to the ice over the winter months...

[carinthian]

As the summer season draws to a close, bands of polar ice now start the journey southwards driven on by the East Greenland current. The current picture shows breakaway ice from the main polar band. The southward extent of the ice along the East Greenland coastline is 2 weeks behind normal progress. We should expect the ice to reach Scoresbysund by about 1oth September in a normal year (70 degrees N ) at 250 north of the Arctic Circle. Fast ice can soon change the picture in a matter of days.

C

[Duncan McAlister]

Looks like the ice is heading for the record minimum after all