Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports

[carinthian]

This is were we are - fact

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/..._timeseries.png

Vast improvement on last year. As I said almost 1 million sq kms extra sea ice this year compared to the last year and the rate and extent of melt is now moving toward the 30 year average. If this continues we will see the fastest recovery this winter for probrably the last 20 years at least IMO. Seems the pendulum is swinging.

Amazing change compared to last year in the the Siberian Sectors. Sea ice reports continue to show lock in to the high Arctic land mass. Time is advancing. Last years record loss will be hard to be beaten. No advection of summer heat into the basin at the moment.

C

[The Eagle]

http://conservativekids.blogspot.com/2008/...imate-tour.html lol

I note certain members have gone into hiding atm. Fingers crossed this continues. Last year's minimum wont be beaten now unless some catastrophe happens I agree with you there. Its a question of how close to average it gets. A pattern like this heading into Winter would really be something.

Edited July 11, 2008 by Darkman

[Damien]

http://conservativekids.blogspot.co...imate-tour.html lol

I note certain members have gone into hiding atm. Fingers crossed this continues. Last year's minimum wont be beaten now unless some catastrophe happens I agree with you there. Its a question of how close to average it gets. A pattern like this heading into Winter would really be something.

How can a conservative website go on about encroaching ice? I thought they would have been more obsessed with warm weather and increasing temperatures?

Strange.

Where's Taras Incognito when you need him? Taras - you still in 'the Shed of the Soviets'? :lol:

[stormynight]

Hello all

First post Looking at the info about last years ice minimum and this years it looks to me that...

1. The area the ice is covering is more at this time than last year.

2. The amount of ice concentration for is much less (looking at arctic.atmos.edu)

So it looks like a catastrophemight be on the way Darkaman as a large amount about to go if the concentration pictures are correct.

We will all see soon...

[Mr Sleet]

Hello all

First post Looking at the info about last years ice minimum and this years it looks to me that...

1. The area the ice is covering is more at this time than last year.

2. The amount of ice concentration for is much less (looking at arctic.atmos.edu)

So it looks like a catastrophemight be on the way Darkaman as a large amount about to go if the concentration pictures are correct.

We will all see soon...

Welcome stormynight, I hope it is the first of many posts.

I can see where you are coming from but look at the graphics from 9 and 10th July. On the 9th I would say that concs looked quite healthy.On the 10th less so...

However, no-one knows the future so we shall see ...but I think no catastrophe ...I'd be much more concerned about Iran and Israel if I wanted to talk catastrophe..

[Gray-Wolf]

At the behest of Doctormog on the enviro arctic thread I ran a comparison of the MODIS Terra images for this time last year and today.

The ice 'thickness' was certainly something that struck me (apart from the loss of the 'perennial ice' north of Greenland this year).

Large areas of the periphery of the melt is showing 'dark ice' where you can now see the dark waters below. This was not the case in last years images which ,though with more open water, did not have these expanses of 'transparent ice'.

As such I have to agree with stormynight (and welcome to you ) that in a very short number of weeks the ice 'extent' maps will look markedly different.

As I said down on enviro a 1cm covering of ice on the grid mask map will return a 100% cover on the extent map, so would a 600cm cover of ice across the same area. Obviously both are very different situations but the 'ice extent' map alone would not show you this.

[Duncan McAlister]

Look at Cryo's new ice conc. maps, very poash

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NE...e.color.000.png

Much more detailed although difficult to compare with previous maps. Makes the ice at the Bering side of the pole look very fragile though, you can also see the stronger ice where a bridge remained last year between Greenland and Kara. Siberian sector also looking strong.

[Duncan McAlister]

Black and white images perhaps even more illuminating.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NE...e.bandw.000.png

[Chris Knight]

Black and white images perhaps even more illuminating.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NE...e.bandw.000.png

but the terminator (solar shading) effect is broken:(

[Gray-Wolf]

As you can see the central section of the NW passage deep channel has now started to fail. Both ends of the channel have been calving floes since May and there is now clear water right up to the ice front at either end. The forecast was for the channel to be open by mid Aug (the first time that the deep channel has been navigable 2 years running).

With the recent study showing that ship were twice as 'sooty' as once believed this new shipping route is not good news for the rest of the Arctic.

[carinthian]

A big difference in ice conditions in the high Russian Arctic this summer compared to this time last year. No poleward heat plumes as yet with low pressure circulation over the Verkhoyanskiy massif the main feature. This circulation helps the westward push of fast ice out of the East Siberian Sea to replace off shore drift of ice away from the Lena Delta into the Laptev Sea. At the present time, there is around half a million sq km more sea ice recorded in the combined waters of the laptev and East Siberian Seas than Mid -July 2007, that is an impressive turnaround,considering lasts years record loss. The concentration of ice remains at nearly 100% along much of this area of the Arctic Rim . Also, I can report a good concentration of polar ice off the North and East coastline of Svalbard and the same for Franz Josef Land, with the North Barent Sea fairing much better than a year ago.

C

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

A big difference in ice conditions in the high Russian Arctic this summer compared to this time last year. No poleward heat plumes as yet with low pressure circulation over the Verkhoyanskiy massif the main feature. This circulation helps the westward push of fast ice out of the East Siberian Sea to replace off shore drift of ice away from the Lena Delta into the Laptev Sea. At the present time, there is around half a million sq km more sea ice recorded in the combined waters of the laptev and East Siberian Seas than Mid -July 2007, that is an impressive turnaround,considering lasts years record loss. The concentration of ice remains at nearly 100% along much of this area of the Arctic Rim . Also, I can report a good concentration of polar ice off the North and East coastline of Svalbard and the same for Franz Josef Land, with the North Barent Sea fairing much better than a year ago.

C

C

I read somewhere too that western Russia has been notably cool so far too. I cannot see any plumes invading that part of the arctic...I think the pattern is locked in somewhat.

BFTP

[Turnedoutniceagain]

C

I read somewhere too that western Russia has been notably cool so far too. I cannot see any plumes invading that part of the arctic...I think the pattern is locked in somewhat.

BFTP

Agreed, it's September in 6wks time & looking near future there doesn't appear to be any Arctic heatwaves on the LRF.

[carinthian]

C

I read somewhere too that western Russia has been notably cool so far too. I cannot see any plumes invading that part of the arctic...I think the pattern is locked in somewhat.

BFTP

Hello BFTP,

Yes, Kara Sea stations showing some below average means. I agree the pattern is locked.

C

[jam]

Hello BFTP,

Yes, Kara Sea stations showing some below average means. I agree the pattern is locked.

C

Can anyone give an 'idiots' ( ie me) guide to the possible implications on the forthcoming winter in NW Europe?

[carinthian]

Can anyone give an 'idiots' ( ie me) guide to the possible implications on the forthcoming winter in NW Europe?

hi Jam,

I am afriad the answer at this stage is No.

C

[John Cox]

Hi Carinth,

A blast from the near past.

I hope you are keeping well and that you have had a good year weather wise.

Sunday here in Dublin was the 1st dry day since the June bank holiday weekend.

The SST's are different this summer and the night time temps here have been the lowest in Summer for a very long time.

So..... This coming winter, perhaps we are in fora BIG change

hi Jam,

I am afriad the answer at this stage is No.

C

[Iceberg]

Just heard from Bill and as expected Cryosphere now uses AMSR-E for the north. Higher detail and quicker update. It shouldn't effect the existing anomaly graphs etc too much, but should ensure greater accuracy. A few more changes to come but a vastly improved site.

[Gray-Wolf]

Preliminary satellite data shows us that surface melt began earlier than

usual over the western and central Arctic Ocean and Baffin Bay (see Figure 4). Last year was fairly typical except for significant early melt in the Laptev and Barents seas. This year, sea ice in the Beaufort Sea began to melt on average 15 days earlier than normal, and 15 days earlier than last year. Surface melt in the Chukchi and East Siberian seas was 6 days earlier than normal, and 14 days earlier than in 2007. In the central Arctic Ocean, melt began around June 9th, which was 12 days earlier than normal and 9 days earlier than the year before. In Baffin Bay, surface melt began 14 days earlier than last year and was 16 days earlier than normal. Areas where melt occurred later, compared to last year, are confined to the margins of the ice cover. These preliminary results will be updated as more data becomes available.

The above a a clip from the NSDIC 'arctic conditions' update page from July 2nd.

It appears that the 'locked in' weather patterns had little impact on the onset of melt. This coupled with the lack of perennial ice would lead me to still harbour some worries about the 'permanence' of the sea ice in those sectors this melt season.

Seeing as the 'record melt' of last year did not start to occur until July our upbeat reflection of conditions there may prove unfounded.

If we check the sea temp anom graphs you'll see that the sectors Corrinth highlighted are bathed in waters up to 4c above average temps (which must extend beneath the ice). As always we must temper the 2m temps with the sea water temps as ,just like with the paper scissor stone game, warm seas always win over cold 2m temps when it comes to melting ice (check out the 2m temps above Wilkins currently as it melts into the southern ocean :lol: ).

[doctormog]

Seeing as the 'record melt' of last year did not start to occur until July our upbeat reflection of conditions there may prove unfounded.

The most anomalous period of last season's melting i.e. biggest deviation from the normal curve actually took place over the very late June/early July period, although there was also a lesser but notable deviation in August and the rate of melting throughout was higher than the climatic average.

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/..._timeseries.png

[rc28]

Sunday here in Dublin was the 1st dry day since the June bank holiday weekend.

The SST's are different this summer and the night time temps here have been the lowest in Summer for a very long time.

So..... This coming winter, perhaps we are in fora BIG change

Oh dear... as has been discussed many times before there is absolutely no link between summer weather and what the winter will be like. Btw what record low temps are you talking about? You mean, the coldest night time temps since last summer?

[oldsnowywizard]

with 8 to 10 weeks left and night time moving closer to the ice fringes every day.. it will be very interesting to see what will happen.

there is more surface ice around this year compared to last, which means less ocean to absorb energy and a higher albedo rate..

but as GW pointed out there will be factors working against the ice...

i really cant see us now losing more ice than last year..

interesting to note that Greenland set to get -30 2 m temps next week( usual ts and cs) does anybody know what the record low temp is for July?

[John Cox]

Hi rc28,

Personally and from what I have read hear on NW from the experts; Summer SST's have a big bearing on our winter weather and vice versa and they are much colder this summer than usual. To say that there is no link between summer weather and what the winter weather will be is a not correct. Cause and effect. With the weather, one season's weather will always affect another. The temps of the oceans do have a large effect on our weather.

Oh dear... as has been discussed many times before there is absolutely no link between summer weather and what the winter will be like. Btw what record low temps are you talking about? You mean, the coldest night time temps since last summer?

[rc28]

Hi rc28,

Personally and from what I have read hear on NW from the experts; Summer SST's have a big bearing on our winter weather and vice versa and they are much colder this summer than usual. To say that there is no link between summer weather and what the winter weather will be is a not correct. Cause and effect. With the weather, one season's weather will always affect another. The temps of the oceans do have a large effect on our weather.

But time and time again it has been shown, on weather sites like this, that cold summers don't correspond to cold winters although i would see why one would think otherwise. We occupy a tiny part of the north atlantic and just because we are having a crap summer (and the waters around us are colder) doesn't mean there will automatically be a colder winter(seeing as the warm gulf stream is such a powerful moderator of our climate). Has the temperature of the north atlantic drift taken a dramatic dip or is it just the shallow seas that surround us?

[carinthian]

Oh dear... as has been discussed many times before there is absolutely no link between summer weather and what the winter will be like. Btw what record low temps are you talking about? You mean, the coldest night time temps since last summer?

rc28

John Cox is a real stalwart on this site and a really keen "weather observer" in his native parts.

. Records and keeps data as well a watcher of nature and the seasons. John takes in a lot of interest on what experts have to say on netweather.tv forum. His posts and thoughts are highly valued by myself ,and I also know by some of the other experts on this forum.

C