July CET

[SteveB]

15.4c. Another poor Month

[Gavin P]

15.0.

The Azores High to dominate the pattern during the first half of the month, but sitting to the south-west of Ireland, so temps never better than average, with several cool nights possible. If high pressure does break away east (unlikely) and give us a hot spell, I think it'll be around mid-month and brief, so soon breaking down into thunderstorms.

The second half of the month sees a gradual decline of the Azores High allowing low pressure to bring a particularly cool and wet final week or ten days.

CET 15.0 Rainfall 100%. Sunshine 120%.

Edited June 22, 2008 by Gavin P

[summer blizzard]

In regards to my very low prediction, i am still confident of a below average month, though i may up it slightly on the 28th (not sure yet).

In regards to the modeling of early July, i have been monitering the ensembles in recent days and the CET for the first seven days of July currently looks likely to be between 16.5C and 17C, slightly above average.

[Norrance]

Slightly below average at 16.1C please.

[chionomaniac]

I reckon that we will have another year ending in an 8 where the July CET doesn't get above 16ºC. I'll go for 15.7ºC.

c

[Upgrade]

i'm feeling cheerful so will say 18.5 deg.

[Sunlover]

It's sunny and I'm in a cheerful mood so I'll try 17.5

[opplevelse]

forgive my N00Bness ... but ... CET?

[Vince]

15.4C a very wet, northerly dominated month with some frosts around in the north.

Blimey , did you smile whils't typing that ...............................

im going for 21 degrees hot and sunny ...how it should be ,given the state of the sea ice up north

[Scorcher]

I'm going for a warm 18.2C with a very warm second half of the month.

Edited June 23, 2008 by Scorcher

[osmposm]

forgive my N00Bness ... but ... CET?

It stands for the Central England Temperature averages - a measure of the average temperatures in England taken from the mean of three different stations said to be representative of the temperatures in central England.

The monthly CET mean that we try and guess can be confusing because it involves three different layers of averaging: the mean of each day's maximum and minimum for each station; the mean of the three stations for each day; and then the average of all the daily figures for each month. At least I think that's how it works - please correct me someone if I'm wrong.

The advantage of the measure over any other is that this monthly mean figure has been calculated and recorded since the year 1659 - the longest such series in the world. There are arguments about how comparable the older figures are since, amongst other problems, the stations used have changed: it's a long and complex discussion which I won't go into here!

You can find further info and links to the statistics here: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet

And the following site shows the more recent figures (since 1900), together with yet another layer of averaging - the mean of each month's figure over the 30-year periods 1961-1990 and 1971-200: http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley...av_temperat.htm

im going for 21 degrees hot and sunny ...how it should be ,given the state of the sea ice up north

Vince, you can't mean that - a CET av of 21.0 would be over a degree warmer than any other recorded month ever. See my reply above for what we try and guess if you're confused - it's a measure of the daily average figures, i.e. halfway between the day's max and min.

Edited June 23, 2008 by osmposm

[kold weather]

I think a pretty average month is in the offing, so right now I will go for 16.4C, a tiny bit below average but pretty much near normal.

[opplevelse]

osmposm, fantastic, thank you for the detailed description! So eaxactly which are the three stations involved and how is the "mean of the three stations for the day" calculated, is based on hourly observations or every observation made by the station?

Edited June 23, 2008 by opplevelse

[osmposm]

You're very kind, James. I don't know exactly where they are - though there are people on here who do, and who I hope will see this - but the triangular area covered has points in the North West of England (Lancashire), the South West (?near Bristol) and the South East (?near London). And I believe adjustments are made to the raw data by comparison with other sites, though I've no idea how or why.

The daily means are, I think, very simple - calculated by adding the maximum and minimum values recorded for each day and dividing by two.

Edited June 23, 2008 by osmposm

[chionomaniac]

You're very kind, James. I don't know exactly where they are - though there are people on here who do, and who I hope will see this - but the triangular area covered has points in the North West of England (Lancashire), the South West (?near Bristol) and the South East (?near London). And I believe adjustments are made to the raw data by comparison with other sites, though I've no idea how or why.

The daily means are, I think, very simple - calculated by adding the maximum and minimum values recorded for each day and dividing by two.

I looked this up some time ago. The 3 sites are Rothamsted, Malvern and Stoneyhurst all equally weighted.

Further info:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/ParkerH...T_IJOC_2005.pdf

c

Edited June 23, 2008 by chionomaniac

[James M]

I'll go for 17.8°C

[Mammatus]

19.8C - A very hot and sunny July. Sweltering!!! PPHhhhheewww

Edited June 23, 2008 by Tornado Alley

[Scorcher]

19.8C - A very hot and sunny July. Sweltering!!! PPHhhhheewww

I really hope you're right!

[osmposm]

I looked this up some time ago. The 3 sites are Rothamsted, Malvern and Stoneyhurst all equally weighted.

Further info:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/ParkerH...T_IJOC_2005.pdf

Thanks very much for that, chiono, gives the very full picture.

There's also info here - some of it slightly confusing - about the stations, but the website allows you to find the precise location of each: http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/data/cet

Relative to the supposed representative triangle - see here: http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/data/cet/map.html - Rothamsted is near Harpenden, Herts, and about 23 miles NNW of Central London. Malvern is a full 47 miles NNE of Bristol - in fact it's it's 2/3 of the way to Birmingham! And Stonyhurst is near Clitheroe, and about 27 miles N of Manchester. So there's a good spread, probably fairly indicative of Central England......but I don't understand why they still show the bottom two points of the triangle as London & Bristol.

[SP1986]

Blimey , did you smile whils't typing that ...............................

im going for 21 degrees hot and sunny ...how it should be ,given the state of the sea ice up north

With the weather at the moment there isnt much the smile at.

I'd be expecting to see some very obvious signs on the models now if 21C were to be reached by the end of July

[snowsure]

16.2 *C

June surprised me. I am more confident about July.

[shuggee]

Phwaaooooor - what a scorcher.

17.7C

[DAVID SNOW]

17.4... ta

[Chris Knight]

I looked this up some time ago. The 3 sites are Rothamsted, Malvern and Stoneyhurst all equally weighted.

Further info:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/ParkerH...T_IJOC_2005.pdf

c

Of course, not all the stations operate all the time!

So they must guesstimate some of the data!

I would frankly be concerned about some of the variability in these records, and how representative the current data can be of the Central England Temperatures! I hope their weighting is thorough.

[Duncan McAlister]

15.9C, wetter and duller than average. Not pleasant oDisapprove