July CET

[Stu_London]

Hadley has rebounded a touch to 15.6C

Back down to 15.5 to the 11th

A conservative outrun on the GFS, suggests a level of 14.9-15.1 by the 20th.

That would mean we have to top 19.5C for the last 11 days, just to get above average. Only 1995 and 2006 in recent times have been that hot in the last third of July, which gives an idea of what is required just to get to average, the chances of which I would rate no better than 5% at present.

I do think things will warm slightly, and a finish in 14s, whilst possible, is unlikely in my opinion. 15.5C to 15.9C would appear most likely from here.

[Snowyowl9]

No change on here still at 15.3c and after today`s coolest day of the month and cold night may see a 0.2c drop.

Currently 0.7c below average which isn`t surprising don`t know where it was this time last July.

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

[Optimus Prime]

which isn`t surprising don`t know where it was this time last July.

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

14.95c on Philips site.

[James M]

Looks like I'm going to be way off again, maybe I should go below average next time then we can get a hot August

[J10]

And to think we had 19.7c in 2006

[Snowyowl9]

14.95c on Philips site.

Thats chilly !!

Just looking at my temps for last year yes it`s not looking quite as cool overall for daytime, nights are cooler though.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

And to think we had 19.7c in 2006

And I remember the AGW being shoved down our throats too by some. Where have they gone?

BFTP

[Stu_London]

Data for 01 July 2008 to 12 July 2008

Hadley - http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

15.3C (-0.6C)

Manley - http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

15.0C (-1.1C)

Today should see a further drop following a cold night, but the next two to three days will probably see a net gain as a warmer spell occurs.

Interesting to see the difference between the two datasets - suggests maybe more month end calebration from Hadley.

And I remember the AGW being shoved down our throats too by some. Where have they gone?

BFTP

Bit quick to be writing them off yet.

Lets have a few sub 10C years

Edited July 13, 2008 by Stu_London

[Weather-history]

It looks as though 18.0 is the upper limit for this July CET now.

Looking at the latest ECM ensembles no sign of a heatwave building up over the near continent.

Edited July 13, 2008 by Mr_Data

[Optimus Prime]

More interestingly are the mean Max figures on Philip Edends site rather then the overall mean;

Mean Max 18.8c (-2.0) which is what last July ended on

Mean Min 11.3c (-0.1c) (July last year finished on 11.7c)

Edited July 13, 2008 by Optimus Prime

[Nick H]

It looks as though 18.0 is the upper limit for this July CET now.

18.0??! We'll be lucky to get 16.0 from here...

[Guest Mike W]

I don't kow if anyone has mentioned the weirdeness on the Hadley diagnostics page, but they have April as 0.1 above average even though it has it finishing at 7.9 which -0.2 on the 71-00 average and 0.0 on the 61-90 using their own CET series averages. Weird. Here is the link: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Edited July 13, 2008 by Mike W

[laserguy]

I don't kow if anyone has mentioned the weirdeness on the Hadley diagnostics page, but they have April as 0.1 above average even though it has it finishing at 7.9 which -0.2 on the 71-00 average and 0.0 on the 61-90 using their own CET series averages. Weird. Here is the link: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Hadley works in mysterious ways!

http://www.paulmacrae.com/?p=74

[Duncan McAlister]

I don't kow if anyone has mentioned the weirdeness on the Hadley diagnostics page, but they have April as 0.1 above average even though it has it finishing at 7.9 which -0.2 on the 71-00 average and 0.0 on the 61-90 using their own CET series averages. Weird. Here is the link: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Could be a rounding issue? They also have June as -0.2 when it should actually be -0.3, as they still use the 61-90 average which is actually higher for June.

[Calrissian]

And I remember the AGW being shoved down our throats too by some. Where have they gone?

BFTP

We're lurking in the shadows...wearing extra layers

--

Another fine Sunday, a good day for London city. How anyone could whine about days like this, ahhh

Calrissian: time for Cadburies

[Optimus Prime]

The most confusing thing for me are the Metoffices reviews for each month on their main site. They had England at 0.3c below average for last July, clearly that's wrong.

Best site is Philips Manley climate-uk.com

[reef]

The most confusing thing for me are the Metoffices reviews for each month on their main site. They had England at 0.3c below average for last July, clearly that's wrong.

Best site is Philips Manley climate-uk.com

Im not sure why it is confusing (or wrong) as they are different datasets? The Metoffice stats you mention for July 2007 are for England, the Areal series which started in 1914. It is not the same as the CET and uses completely different sites to represent all of England and not just central England.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ser...stics/etemp.txt

There are also individual datasets for Wales, Northern Ireland, Scotland and the entire UK.

As for the Hadley site, they are simply using the 1961-90 average as Duncan mentions.

[Optimus Prime]

Im not sure why it is confusing (or wrong) as they are different datasets?

I'm more confused by the fact it was only 0.3c below the 61-90 average

[acbrixton]

On the basis of the 18z output it looks as if we may be at, say, 15.4-15.7 at the 2/3 mark. Upper 16s look like the upper realistic eventual value (16.8 would require 19.0-19.3 for the final third) and low 15s for the lower realistic end of month value. At a guess I would go for 15.8-16.2 at this stage. Anything above 17 would be near impossible if we are at mid 15s by 20th July.

regards

ACB

[Stu_London]

Anything above 17 would be near impossible if we are at mid 15s by 20th July.

regards

ACB

Indeed, difficult to see a 2006 style heatwave cropping up in the last third of the month (which is what would be required) from current setups being played out.

The average 850hpa ensemble line stays below average (except for the next two days) throughout the run until month end. It's not an absolute indicator of temps because a strong sun can be a big driver at this time of year (as we saw today), however we could still be looking at high 14s/ low 15s as an absolute low point. I do however think mid to high 15s are much more likely.

[Weather-history]

18.0??! We'll be lucky to get 16.0 from here...

It wouldn't take that much of an effort to get to 16.0, its not as though Hadley CET is currently down in the depths! (A daily CET mean of 16.6, infact)

Edited July 14, 2008 by Mr_Data

[Nick H]

It wouldn't take that much of an effort to get to 16.0, its not as though Hadley CET is currently down in the depths! (A daily CET mean of 16.6, infact)

Well 16.0C is just about possible I suppose, though I still think a month lower than 16C is more likely than one above. To get 16.6C from here on in is going to require some doing - no sign of any heatwave in the offing and after tomorrow nothing remotely warm for the next week. Not impossible, but only 30% chance I'd say.

18.0C is certainly out of the question though.

Edited July 14, 2008 by Nick H

[Stu_London]

Data for 01 July 2008 to 12 July 2008

Hadley - http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

15.3C (-0.6C)

Manley - http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

15.0C (-1.1C)

Updated to 13th July 2008

Hadley - 15.2

Manley - 15.0

Small rise today and tomorrow I think - then downward pressure again. Should still be around 15 heading into the last third

[Gavin P]

Not sure of there will be a rise for today. It really is diappointingly cloudy here and as a result temps are not achieving their potential.

Quite a big rise for tomorrow, though, with a warm night tonight and then a very warm day tomorrow. I can't see us being much above 15.5 by the end of the week, though.

Edited July 14, 2008 by Gavin P

[stewfox]

Not sure of there will be a rise for today. It really is diappointingly cloudy here and as a result temps are not achieving their potential.

Quite a big rise for tomorrow, though, with a warm night tonight and then a very warm day tomorrow. I can't see us being much above 15.5 by the end of the week, though.

CET not based on one location

About 24c here in city of london , very warm. Some cloud but mainly blue skies

Edited July 14, 2008 by stewfox