July CET

[Weather-history]

You forgot one year 1928/ 16.1c which was 0.1c aove average and was the warmest July with an "8" what is it about July`s and 8 must be a curse. <_<

Thats since and including July 1888 though, when the run of poor/mediocre summer ending in "8" began. July 1868 had a CET of 18.3

[chionomaniac]

Hadley has updated and came in at 19.9C yesterday. This takes us to 15.6C to the 23rd, an increase of 0.2C over yesterday. The maxima will almost certainly be readjusted downwards at the end of the month, as it was recorded as 27.1C, which seems a bit high as very few areas actually made that temperature!? Nevertheless, 16C is looking more likely now.

Hadley at 15.7C upto the 24th. Yesterday came in at 19.7C. Reef you were right about the adjustment for the 23rd, this is now recorded as being 18.7C (maxima 24.6C) which is the second adjustment this week. Odds on over 16.0C end figure now I reckon.

c

[reef]

Hadley at 15.7C upto the 24th. Yesterday came in at 19.7C. Reef you were right about the adjustment for the 23rd, this is now recorded as being 18.7C (maxima 24.6C) which is the second adjustment this week. Odds on over 16.0C end figure now I reckon.

c

An average of 17.1C is required to hit 16.0C by months end. That figure could be revised downwards, but it still looks in the bag. We'd also require 19.3C for the final 7 days to reach the 1971-2000 average, but I think thats very unlikely.

[Snowyowl9]

Thats since and including July 1888 though, when the run of poor/mediocre summer ending in "8" began. July 1868 had a CET of 18.3

Thats a very long time it may change this month even.

Of course my punt was 16.3c not 15.8c as I went 0.2c below the 71-00 average.

[The PIT]

Up to 15.9C up to the 25th. Should be at or slightly above 16C by Monday at the latest. MY 16.4C punt isn't looking as bad now. At one time anything near 16C looked impossible.

Edited July 26, 2008 by The PIT

[Snowly does it]

Up to 15.9C up to the 25th. Should be at or slightly above 16C by Monday at the latest. MY 16.4C punt isn't looking as bad now. At one time anything near 16C looked impossible.

LOL! I think 'impossible' is stretching it a bit - as Hadley has at no stage been below 15.3, its not a massive leap to get to 16

[reef]

Up to 15.9C up to the 25th. Should be at or slightly above 16C by Monday at the latest. MY 16.4C punt isn't looking as bad now. At one time anything near 16C looked impossible.

Yes, yesterday came in at 20.0C. Id say with the current outlook that even reaching the 1971-2000 average of 16.5C isnt out of bounds. It would require 19.2C now for the final 6 days. Thats assuming of course that Hadley dont correct downwards in their qulity control at the end of the month.

Edited July 26, 2008 by reef

[The PIT]

LOL! I think 'impossible' is stretching it a bit - as Hadley has at no stage been below 15.3, its not a massive leap to get to 16

You've got to remember that Models weren't showing a warming up like this and only when Bertha's track threw the ridge up in a favourable place did the prospect of 16C being reached could be spoken off and even then it depended on high Humidity to keep the night time temps up as well.

[Snowly does it]

You've got to remember that Models weren't showing a warming up like this and only when Bertha's track threw the ridge up in a favourable place did the prospect of 16C being reached could be spoken off and even then it depended on high Humidity to keep the night time temps up as well.

I accept that, but at mid month from 15.3, 16 was never 'impossible' or even looking that way - impossible means cannot happen - at mid month or so from 15.3 with forecasting beyond 4 days very tricky, 16 is within the range of likely outcomes.

[The PIT]

I accept that, but at mid month from 15.3, 16 was never 'impossible' or even looking that way - impossible means cannot happen - at mid month or so from 15.3 with forecasting beyond 4 days very tricky, 16 is within the range of likely outcomes.

Yes but the models at the time showed average to below slightly below average so 16C would have been impossible. If you think things can't be impossible I pretty sure we won't get 20C CET for example or 25C CET in the remaining few days.

Edited July 26, 2008 by The PIT

[Snowly does it]

Yes but the models at the time showed average to below slightly below average so 16C would have been impossible. If you think things can't be impossible I pretty sure we won't get 20C CET for example or 25C CET in the remaining few days.

I never said things can't be impossible - I said 16 could not have been described as impossible. And even though the models a few days ago showed the short term to be possibly below average, their reliability was still around 4-5 days after which it is FI and there were still several days of July to go and we were at (at lowest) 15.3 - ergo it looked perhaps unlikely 16 would be reached, not impossible.

[The PIT]

If the latest GFS is correct 16C CET will be broken. MY prediction looking better day by day.

[acbrixton]

Indeed, assuming that Hadley is on 16.1 after Saturday, my interpretation of the GFS 18z is for 16.5-16.6 month end. Only a week ago I would have thought that an average month end was pretty unlikely.

Nonetheless from Monday to Thursday the predicted slack pressure and increasing risk of cloud/storms makes it especially difficult to predict the outcome. I would guess that the final realistic range, at present, is perhaps 16.2-16.7.

regards

ACB

[reef]

Indeed, assuming that Hadley is on 16.1 after Saturday, my interpretation of the GFS 18z is for 16.5-16.6 month end. Only a week ago I would have thought that an average month end was pretty unlikely.

Nonetheless from Monday to Thursday the predicted slack pressure and increasing risk of cloud/storms makes it especially difficult to predict the outcome. I would guess that the final realistic range, at present, is perhaps 16.2-16.7.

regards

ACB

That sounds like a good range to me. Also complicating things is the fact that Hadley are very likely going to release a final figure lower when they do their quality control. Another factor is the GFS and its prediction of temperatures. It seems to me it predicts minima too high (It forcasted an average minima around 15-16C in the CET zone last night, but it was actually 13.5C) and maxima too low.

[The PIT]

With warmer more humid air due to arrive again we're likely to have very high daily averages possibly well above +20c in many areas in the CET zone. A slight cool down after front moves through should stagnate the rise a little so a landing zone between 16.2C and 16.5C is what I'm guessing at.

[reef]

Yesterday came in on Hadley at 18.9C, taking us to 16.0C to the 26th.

The coming days this week are not as hot as initially predicted. Night-time minima are rather high though, so we could just reach the 1971-2000 before quality control at month's end.

[Eugene]

It seems to me it predicts minima too high (It forcasted an average minima around 15-16C in the CET zone last night, but it was actually 13.5C) and maxima too low.

I disagree GFS temp charts have been pretty accurate lately, maxs mainly in the 26C to 28C range in the midlands today so 27C/28C which it went for is very good going, it does not account for very local spots of course or top of roofs in central london or large airports with jet engines

When it predicts the temps its for the majority not very local variations.

[Kentish Man]

Hadops has just updated and the CET now stands on 16.1C (Jul 1 -27).

There must be a fair chance the CET will reach the 71 - 00 average of 16.5C. However final quality controls on Hadley may take it back below.

[Optimus Prime]

I would have thought 16.3c is more likely. I went for 15.9c as my estimate at the middle part of June so I'm happy.

[reef]

Warmest day of the month yesterday at 21.1C. Hadleys average is now 16.3C to the 28th.

[The PIT]

Can't be right I may even get close with my guess. :blush:

[ukmoose]

Hadops has just updated and the CET now stands on 16.1C (Jul 1 -27).

There must be a fair chance the CET will reach the 71 - 00 average of 16.5C. However final quality controls on Hadley may take it back below.

So what are these 'quality controls' exactly? And why is it that Hadley always seems to revise the temperature downwards at month's end? Looking at the other CET trackers, Hadley and Manley always seem to read lower anyway - sometimes by quite a margin - and then end up being revised downwards still further. I find this rather puzzling at times. 16.1 seems low to me - despite the cool start.

Moose

[stewfox]

Warmest day of the month yesterday at 21.1C. Hadleys average is now 16.3C to the 28th.

Where ? in Hull I guess

Is there a link to where they take the CET readings from (I assume a number of weather stations)

As Shetland basks at 14c it feels warmer then the 25c here in the city of london

[reef]

Where ? in Hull I guess

Is there a link to where they take the CET readings from (I assume a number of weather stations)

As Shetland basks at 14c it feels warmer then the 25c here in the city of london

Its for the CET zone, you can see the daily readings here:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2008

Yesterday came in at 19.5C, taking us to 16.4C to the 29th.

[Iceberg]

It looks like both of the CET averages will be reached and maybe even 16.6

Thanks for the updates, I frequently read them, but rarely post in this thread, it's much appreciated.