July CET

[summer blizzard]

Well, its that time of the month again when we look ahead to the next, so will we see a washout, or will summer kick into gear...

Well, while it probaby won't be as wet as last year, i am expecting July 2008 to be horrific, on par with July 1965...

My prediction for the July 2008 CET is 14.5C, 2C below average.

[Snowly does it]

14.8

[damianslaw]

Well, its that time of the month again when we look ahead to the next, so will we see a washout, or will summer kick into gear...

Well, while it probaby won't be as wet as last year, i am expecting July 2008 to be horrific, on par with July 1965...

My prediction for the July 2008 CET is 14.5C, 2C below average.

Ooh what I good way to start a new thread with a very bold statement, I like your style.. As usual I'll be leaving my prediction until the end of the month, however, I will resurrect my initial thoughts for July i.e. the warmest of the summer months but it will be generally unsettled with plenty of rain but of a thundery nature rather than brought on by traditional fronts.

[Timmead]

Any figures on past Julys, including long-term means?

[Guest Mike W]

18.0, but could finish higher to allot higher obviously.

[mountain shadow]

I never post my guess until Mr Data has given us a run down. I would be particularly interested in hot July's following below average/average June's?

[summer blizzard]

14.5C: Summer Blizzard

14.8C: Snowmaiden

18C: Mike W

The 1971-2000 average for July is 16.5C...

The coldest July on record was 13.4C in 1816, 3.1C below average...

The hottest July on record was 19.7C in 2006, 3.2C above average.

[osmposm]

Some probably pointless (but it amused me) further calculations on recent July means...to an even more pointless two decimal places:

61-90 mean - 16.05

71-00 mean - 16.48

30 yr running mean - 16.58

30 yr running mean (adjusted) - 16.48 (excludes 3 highest & 3 lowest years)

10 yr running mean - 16.71

10 yr running mean (adjusted) - 16.53 (excludes highest & lowest year)

All of which says to me that while there was a big jump in the 70s & early 80s from the cool Julys of the 60s, the rise since then has been more muted - bar 2006, of course!

On the other hand I should point out to those plumping for 14-something, it is 20 years since we had a July below 15.0.

Oh, and I'll go for 16.6^oC

(I really want to go for something a bit lower, but as an experiment this year I'm making all my guesses according to a pre-ordained - and so far utterly useless - formula....roll on December.)

Ossie

[Lettucing Gutted]

With Arctic Sea Ice once again approaching record lows expect temperatures to go through the roof...

20C

[Gavin P]

July is interesting, because despite the freak 2006 it appears to be the one month that still frequently comes in at or below average. In the last ten years;

1998

2000

2004

2005

2007

Have all been average or below.

[memories of 63]

Soooo 16.5 Deg C is the average.

Seeing as I punted 14.3 deg C for June and I expect a little further warming and I'm a cold lover at heart who has profound scepticism about AGW.

I'll give it a go at 15.5 Deg C

[Weather-history]

July is interesting, because despite the freak 2006 it appears to be the one month that still frequently comes in at or below average. In the last ten years;

1998

2000

2004

2005

2007

Have all been average or below.

The Julys that were below the 1961-90 average in the last 10 years

1998 (-0.6)

2000 (-0.6)

2002 (-0.1)

2004 (-0.3)

2007 (-0.9)

2005 was 0.8C above the 1961-90 average.

[Rollo]

Certainly I expect a more settled July than June has been thus far and will go for 17.3c.

[Weather-history]

One thing to note, since the start of the run of poor summers ending in "8" ie from 1888, there has only been one July that has breeched the 16.0C mark for the CET and that was 1928 with 16.1

1888 13.7

1898 15.3

1908 15.8

1918 15.4

1928 16.1

1938 15.2

1948 15.8

1958 15.9

1968 15.0

1978 14.8

1988 14.8

1998 15.5

[Typhoon John]

I'll go for 15.5 based on nothing really scientific, just my general thoughts on the weather at the moment.

[SP1986]

15.4C a very wet, northerly dominated month with some frosts around in the north.

[grab my graupel]

I'm going to settle for 16.7c

[Don]

My feeling is that July will be close to average temperature wise, but won't be giving a final estimate until next week.

[richarddx7]

16.0

[BornFromTheVoid]

Il go with an early punt at 15.9C, same as my June guess!

[Timmead]

Thanks for the stats.

I'm going for 16.9

[summer blizzard]

14.5C: Summer Blizzard

14.8C: Snowmaiden

15.5C: Memories Of 63

15.4C: Stephen Prudence

15.5C: Fozi999

15.9C: Na Damanta Sam

16C: Richard dx7

16.6C: Osmposm

16.7C: Grab My Grauples

16.9C: Timmead

17.3C: Rollo

18C: Mike W

20C: Craig Evans

The 1971-2000 average for July is 16.5C...

The coldest July on record was 13.4C in 1816, 3.1C below average...

The hottest July on record was 19.7C in 2006, 3.2C above average.

[Optimus Prime]

Looking at the current pattern, general theme will be that of 2007 with the track of storms more southward then would be expected in a warm summer month, on this basis, I'm going for 15.9c.

Quite cool, rather wetter then average but with setlled warmer spells. Mean minima above average. 30c will be breached.

[North-Easterly Blast]

July is interesting, because despite the freak 2006 it appears to be the one month that still frequently comes in at or below average. In the last ten years;

1998

2000

2004

2005

2007

Have all been average or below.

Wrong, July 2005 was above average (16.9*C). July 2002 was 16.0*C, still only 0.1*C off the 1961-90 average. More unlike many other months of the year that have shown persistent warming trend, like January, February and September etc, it is true that July has bounced around quite a bit over the last 10-20 years with no obvious pattern at all.

[The PIT]

I'll go for 16.4C close to average. Since it's still very rare to get a below average month.