July CET

[osmposm]

Absolutely agree, Iceberg: thank you, Reef and many others, for the updates and discussion on them. I seldom post, but often read and much enjoy.

Amazingly (and unexpectedly) we seem to be creeping in the general direction of my 16.6, though I fear we won't quite reach it. It remains a difficult call, though, with a marked contrast between the very warm east, and the wetter, cooler west - with the latter's downward pull offset by more nightime cloud cover. Ossie

Edited July 30, 2008 by osmposm

[Scorcher]

I'm tempted to call this a 'remarkable turnaround' as many seem to do during winter when the second half of a month is much colder than the first. Around mid-month many people ruled out the chance of even getting to 16C and now it's even possible we could get up to the 71-00 average.

[acbrixton]

At mid month (and even at the 2/3 mark) I thought that 16.5-6 (the possible final outcome) was near impossible. Glad to have been proven wrong!

regards

ACB

[Optimus Prime]

It's quite some turn around be we were never far below normal Scorcher, apart from mean Maxima.

For a turnaround look no further then July 1948;

CET tracker;

23rd 13.9c (2.6c below the 71-2000 average) (going for the coldest July on record here)

24th 14.0c (-2.5c)

25th 14.2c (-2.3c)

26th 14.5c (-2.0c)

27th 14.7c (-1.8c)

28th 15.1c (-1.4c)

29th 15.4c (-1.1c)

30th 15.7c (-0.8c)

31st 15.9c (-0.6c)

That month contained the hottest 24 hour period on record with an average of over 25.0c. After what was looking like an unusually cold month ended up as only a relatively cool month in comparison to the avgerage.

Edited July 30, 2008 by Optimus Prime

[The PIT]

Arrrgh don't go any higher just stay where you are 16.4C please pretty please.

[Scorcher]

For a turnaround look no further then July 1948;

CET tracker;

23rd 13.9c (2.6c below the 71-2000 average) (going for the coldest July on record here)

24th 14.0c (-2.5c)

25th 14.2c (-2.3c)

26th 14.5c (-2.0c)

27th 14.7c (-1.8c)

28th 15.1c (-1.4c)

29th 15.4c (-1.1c)

30th 15.7c (-0.8c)

31st 15.9c (-0.6c)

That month contained the hottest 24 hour period on record with an average of over 25.0c. After what was looking like an unusually cold month ended up as only a relatively cool month in comparison to the avgerage.

Yes nowhere near as dramatic as that!

[damianslaw]

Ooh my 16.6 punt looks in with a high chance at this late stage. Wasn't expecting such a warm up, it has been the prolongedness of war conditions rather than figures themselves of recent days that has helped. A very warm 9 day spell which has co-incided with my thoughts of late July being the hottest part of the summer.

[Weather-history]

For a turnaround look no further then July 1948;

May 1944 was another. That went from what was looking like being a cool to very cool May to an average May in a space of a week

25. 9.7

26. 10.0

27. 10.2

28. 10.5

29. 10.9

30. 11.2

31. 11.4

[reef]

Hadley is now 16.5C to the 30th. It was very warm last night in the CET zone and today will see some high temperatures too, so another rise tomorrow looks likely. 16.6C looks to be the provisional value, then its all eyes on the corrected series to see what the quality control brings.

[Lettucing Gutted]

It looks like July 2008 is yet another that promised to finish below the 1961-1990 and yet it has failed to thanks to another insane warm spell.

[Snowyowl9]

It`s certainly not an isane warm spell except only in the SE where 30c has been reached a few days nowhere near those temps in other places west/north just a typical July then.

2 years ago was insanely hot everywhere.

[acbrixton]

It looks like July 2008 is yet another that promised to finish below the 1961-1990 and yet it has failed to thanks to another insane warm spell.

Cheer up Craig: June 2008 fell below both the 1971-2000 and 1961-1990 CET mean.

regards

ACB

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Nice my 16.8 was looking far off a few weeks ago, now its looking quite good!

[Eugene]

It looks like July 2008 is yet another that promised to finish below the 1961-1990 and yet it has failed to thanks to another insane warm spell.

Nowhere near as insane as your July forecast of 20C craig

Your August forecast looks bust already

[acbrixton]

Manley's final value (subject to possible adjustments) is 16.4c.

regards

ACB

[The PIT]

Manley's final value (subject to possible adjustments) is 16.4c.

regards

ACB

Pity we ain't using that otherwise I'd be spot on. Just waiting for Hadley to adjust down to likewise figure.

On a side note last nights rain and I'm pretty sure about this pushes Julys rainfall higher than last years July's.

Edited August 1, 2008 by The PIT

[reef]

The quality controlled Hadley value has been confirmed at 16.2C.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

As expected some of the recent warmer days have had their daily CET values revised downwards:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2008

A 4th consecutive below average (albeit only just) summer month. August now has to be 16.7C otherwise the summer will be below average.

[Stargazer]

The quality controlled Hadley value has been confirmed at 16.2C.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

As expected some of the recent warmer days have had their daily CET values revised downwards:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2008

A 4th consecutive below average (albeit only just) summer month. August now has to be 16.7C otherwise the summer will be below average.

So my guess of 16.6 wasn't as far out as I expected. BTW - can anyone explain the figures in the second attachment? I've tried, but they're defeating me.

[Edit: Ah...think I've got it. Are they all in tenths of a deg C with averages in hundredths?]

Edited August 1, 2008 by Stargazer

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So my guess of 16.6 wasn't as far out as I expected. BTW - can anyone explain the figures in the second attachment? I've tried, but they're defeating me.

Yep 16.6 for me. Within 0.5c is satisfactory, pity it wasn't manley.

BFTP

[osmposm]

The quality controlled Hadley value has been confirmed at 16.2C.

Oh, nooooooooooooooooooooo. There I was beginning to revel in my close-or-spot-on 16.6

Upset Ossie

[Snowyowl9]

Interesting thats it`s come down more so very close for me then. <_<

As for the rainfall The Pit here last July came in much wetter at 7.6" but this month has caught up somewhat surprisingly to 4.9 inches.

[The PIT]

I demand a Stewards enquiry. Down by 03.C !!!! Far too much.

[osmposm]

I demand a Stewards enquiry. Down by 03.C !!!! Far too much.

'ere, 'ere. Obviously a fix!?!

Edited August 1, 2008 by osmposm

[Scorcher]

How come it's always adjusted downwards? I can't really believe how low both Manley and Hadley are considering the recent warm spell.

[Optimus Prime]

I think they must take into account the Urban Heat which has been growing since the 70s which wouldnb't have been there pre 70s.