July CET

[Snowly does it]

Possibly because getting a below average month is so rare.

not THAT rare though - 6 out of the last 12 months have been below the 71-00 average

[The PIT]

Despite the below average temperatures of today and tomorrow!

That all depends on tonight's lows doesn't it. Temps have been higher than expected and will probably end up around average.

[acbrixton]

If Hadley is unchanged at 15.5 including yesterday, then, on the basis of the GFS 18z, the very warm spell progged for 23-25th inclusive would give a CET of about 15.8 at the 80% mark.

If this is the case then a final outcome above normal is all but impossible: 16.6 would require the last 6 days to average 21.8. My guess at the likely range is 15.6 to 16.2 with 15.8-16.0 as favourite.

regards

ACB

[Weather-history]

4th below average mid June-mid July period in the last 7 years.

Edited July 20, 2008 by Mr_Data

[Weather-history]

First 20 days for sunshine

Feb 08: 108.0hrs

Jul 08: 102.3hrs

The first 20 days of February was sunnier than the first 20 days of July for England and Wales.

[reef]

Hadley came in at 14.6C yesterday to take us to 15.4C to the 20th. Today should see another 0.1C shaved off as there were widespread single figures last night and a cool day today.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Manley is at 15.1C, highlighting the fact that there could still be a significant correction downwards on the Hadley at the end of the month.

http://www.climate-uk.com/

The trend from tomorrow is definitely upwards though. 16.0C still looks like a good landing spot.

[Gavin P]

I think we'll land at 16.0 with Hadley, then the inevitable downwards correction will take us back to 15.8 or 15.9.

Edited July 21, 2008 by Gavin P

[Optimus Prime]

Stats from climate-uk;

Mean Max 18.7c (-2.3c)

Mean Min 11.4c (-0.2)

Been an exceptionally poor month temperature wise during the day so far but the min is keeping it rather more level. Mean max will finish in the 19.0s, two consequtive Julys below an average of 20.0c.

This time last year the CET was 15.5c.

Edited July 21, 2008 by Optimus Prime

[richarddx7]

One things for sure, it's much cooler here this July than last year. Nearly 0.5c colder. The CET cyrrebtky stands at 15.1c, a bit lower than last year, no doubt will rise a bit by the end of the month with the slightly above average temps predicted.

[acbrixton]

Stats from climate-uk;

Mean Max 18.7c (-2.3c)

Mean Min 11.4c (-0.2)

Been an exceptionally poor month temperature wise during the day so far but the min is keeping it rather more level. Mean max will finish in the 19.0s, two consequtive Julys below an average of 20.0c.

This time last year the CET was 15.5c.

OP, sorry to appear pedantic but PE has the mean minimum as at 20th on 11.5 or 0.1 below par, thus giving an overall mean of 15.1.

I imagine that after today Manley may get to 15.0 even if rounded down.

For Manley to reach 16.0 (unadjusted) would require a prolonged warm spell averaging 18.0, whilst if Hadley is on 15.2 up to and including 21st July a less demanding final third average of 17.4 would give a final value of 16.0.

However it is most likely that there will be a 2-3 day cool and unsettled spell this weekend into early next week and a day each side of that breakdown with roughly average temperatures leaving only 5 days to deliver sufficient heat: if we assume 3 days at 14.5 and 2 days at 16.5 the remaining 5 days must average 20.7 for a final value of 16.0. That is all the more unlikely given that those 5 warm days are in 2 blocks separated by the breakdown thus giving less time for the classic daily intensification of maxima often characteristic of summer hot spells. Thus for Manley my guess would be no more than 15.8 as that would require the 5 warm days to average 'only' 19.5. Overall range perhaps 15.5-15.8.

Using the same reasoning 15.7-16.0 for Hadley.

regards

ACB

[snowsure]

I know it is off topic but surely this needs asking!

... The CET cyrrebtky stands ...

I assume that this word cyrrebtky is from "typing with your eyes closed."

[osmposm]

Yes, SS - I always thought that one of the great advantages of proper typing (as opposed to my staring at the keyboard two finger stuff) was that you could look at the page/screen while doing it and immediately notice any errors. Hmmmm....glad to know that this forum's reputation for thoughtful, careful posting is in safe hands!?

Edited July 22, 2008 by osmposm

[chionomaniac]

Hadley came in at 14.6C yesterday to take us to 15.4C to the 20th. Today should see another 0.1C shaved off as there were widespread single figures last night and a cool day today.

Hadley CET is now at 15.3C upto the 21st after yesterday came in at 13.8C. The value of 14.6C from the day before has also been adjusted down to 13.6C I notice.

c

[damianslaw]

The imminent warm/very warm spell coming up is looking perhaps too little and certainly is too late to help bring the CET to even near average value i.e. within 0.3 degrees. Still a slim chance of 16 degrees being the final figure, though with adjustments I would think 15.8 would be a more realistic figure, making it the coldest month relative to average since last July.

[reef]

Yesterday was actually below average on Hadley at just 16.0C. This takes us back to 15.4C to the 22nd.

An average of 19.2C is now required to reach average by the 31st.

[summer blizzard]

Looks as though the CET could rise quite rapidly from now until the end of the month, with the period looking to average around 18C.

[The PIT]

Yesterday was actually below average on Hadley at just 16.0C. This takes us back to 15.4C to the 22nd.

An average of 19.2C is now required to reach average by the 31st.

Which I don't think we'll get somehow. Although it may try at times in some areas.

[Lettucing Gutted]

It looks like this could be the first "8" July to record a CET above the 1961-1990 average for July.

[reef]

It looks like this could be the first "8" July to record a CET above the 1961-1990 average for July.

We'd need 17.6C for everyday from the 23rd-31st to just equal it. Of course then theres a chance of Hadley doing the usual quality control downwards so realistically we'd need the provisional mean to be 16.2C or 16.3C. That would require 18.3C or 18.6C respectively. Its possible I suppose, but I think we could just miss it.

When Hadley updates today with the 23rd, it will give us some idea.

Edited July 24, 2008 by reef

[reef]

We'd need 17.6C for everyday from the 23rd-31st to just equal it. Of course then theres a chance of Hadley doing the usual quality control downwards so realistically we'd need the provisional mean to be 16.2C or 16.3C. That would require 18.3C or 18.6C respectively. Its possible I suppose, but I think we could just miss it.

When Hadley updates today with the 23rd, it will give us some idea.

Hadley has updated and came in at 19.9C yesterday. This takes us to 15.6C to the 23rd, an increase of 0.2C over yesterday. The maxima will almost certainly be readjusted downwards at the end of the month, as it was recorded as 27.1C, which seems a bit high as very few areas actually made that temperature!? Nevertheless, 16C is looking more likely now.

[Stu_London]

I think we may gain another 0.5C in the next 7 days - so a landing point around 16C if they nudge the final figure back down

[Snowyowl9]

It looks like this could be the first "8" July to record a CET above the 1961-1990 average for July.

You forgot one year 1928/ 16.1c which was 0.1c aove average and was the warmest July with an "8" what is it about July`s and 8 must be a curse.

15.8c would be a nice figure to finish as my guess but 16c does looks more likely maybe??

[Don]

I think that a CET of 16C is now the most likely outcome for this month.

Edited July 24, 2008 by Don

[The PIT]

And yet another split month temperature wise. Just over the first half well below while last part well above.

[Terminal Moraine]

Yes, I curse this warm spell for almost certainly ruining my chances of getting the CET correct in two consecutive months.