August CET

[NorthantsSnow]

Quite pleased with my 15.2C prediction based on what the models are showing.

[damianslaw]

Reef

Sorry I didn't mean to say whether your figures are representative of the CET that was a mistake. Your explanation of your location clears up my wonder about your figures.

As for the CET a downward trend from tomorrow onwards for the foreseeable future, perhaps not so cool at night as thought early on in the week with cloud likely to be a feature.

[chionomaniac]

Latest CET is 17.0ºC. Yesterday was 18.9ºC (max 22.7ºC, min 15.1ºC).

[damianslaw]

Latest CET is 17.0ºC. Yesterday was 18.9ºC (max 22.7ºC, min 15.1ºC).

My thinking is that we are at the highest peak in the CET for the month, downwards for the next week or so, then a probable stutter with perhaps room for some upwards adjustment in the latter part of the month but nothing akin to what happened in July and therefore not enough to breach the 17 degree mark again.

[chionomaniac]

My thinking is that we are at the highest peak in the CET for the month, downwards for the next week or so, then a probable stutter with perhaps room for some upwards adjustment in the latter part of the month but nothing akin to what happened in July and therefore not enough to breach the 17 degree mark again.

With last night registering at 14.6ºC and today (probably) low 20s, I reckon we may rise to 17.1ºc tomorrow, before the inevitable slide. I agree that once this occurs, it will prove difficult to rise higher than this as August is a cooling month.

[Kentish Man]

We have recorded an above average first week in August with Hadley updating at 17.2C today. This is 0.5C above the running average for 1971-2000 and a full degree above the average 1971/2000 CET for the whole of August.

It is fair to say the next 7 days will rather cooler and disappointingly unsettled for holidaymakers. Possibly back to average by mid month.

[summer blizzard]

Ensemble monitering suggests that the CET will be in the low 15C range by the 23rd.

Current CET is 16.9C according to Phillip Eden.

[Wales123098]

ArE the charts showing a heatwave at the moment?

[Stu_London]

Provisional Hadley CET is 16.8C to the 9th

Certainly a below average week to come although no really cold days or nights so I would expect the next 7 days to pan out around 15.0c - 15.5c - that would give us a CET of about 16.0C-16.2C in a weeks time at the half way point.

Ensemble data suggest that conditions will move towards average after this point, however at this range it cannot be taken too seriously.

16C give or take half a degree would appear to be the most likely landing point, so at this early stage another month close to average looks farily likely.

[Weather-history]

The first 10 days of February 2008 were sunnier than the first 10 days of August 2008

Feb: 45.4hrs

Aug: 40.7hrs

[Gavin P]

Its really high minima that is keeping the CET at a reasonable level at the moment. If we do see a build in pressure later in the month, as seems likely, we may start to get some much cooler nights, so the CET may fall more later in the month, despite being under an anticylonic influence?

[reef]

Its really high minima that is keeping the CET at a reasonable level at the moment. If we do see a build in pressure later in the month, as seems likely, we may start to get some much cooler nights, so the CET may fall more later in the month, despite being under an anticylonic influence?

Indeed, its been quite a strange month so far, the opposite of February (which as Mr Data mentioned is sunnier so far) in that the month had a very high maxima and close to average minima.

August here is currently running at 17.9°C (+1.3°C) but when you break it down, you realise the effect of the minima.

Figures here at the moment:

August 1-10 Mean Max: 21.0°C (-0.1°C)

August 1-10 Mean Min: 14.9°C (+2.6°C)

[Weather-history]

For England and Wales as a whole, it is going to wetter than last August for certain and the way things are going it could end up the wettest August since 2004 (156.5mm)

Aug 2005: 62.5mm

Aug 2006: 85.9mm

Aug 2007: 57.5mm

As for sunshine, it looks like being duller than the first half of February 2008.

[Kentish Man]

Provisional Hadley continues its slide downwards and now stands at 16.6C up to the 12th.

However the most notable thing this month as Mr Data mentions above is the lack of sunshine. This of all the stats is most conducive to the weatherwise feel bad factor.

[Guest Mike W]

The CET seems to be holding up very well, I'm surprised it's not in the low 16.* by now or even high 15.*, especialyl with most if not all areas in the CET zone being below average temps.

[Optimus Prime]

It's because of night time minima. It always starts of high then dips down later in the month as Autumn closes in.

Mean maxima as of today stands at 19.7c which is 0.6c below 61-90 average. If minima was the same the mean temperature would stand at 15.2c.

[Lettucing Gutted]

It's because of night time minima. It always starts of high then dips down later in the month as Autumn closes in.

Mean maxima as of today stands at 19.7c which is 0.6c below 61-90 average. If minima was the same the mean temperature would stand at 15.2c.

The minima are surprisingly high considering were in cold sectors in the westerly airstream. They must be well modified by the nearby warm SST anomalies.

[Tucco]

The minima are surprisingly high considering were in cold sectors in the westerly airstream. They must be well modified by the nearby warm SST anomalies.

Probably more to do with higher humidity and cloud cover than SST's.

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

[Optimus Prime]

...Or more to do with the fact we're still on the summer side of the season. As I said, the big change for nights will come during the second half. That's when the nights become appreciably cool and noticeably so. That's when naturally the minima will correct itself.

Edited August 13, 2008 by Optimus Prime

[Snowyowl9]

Nights seem to of started to cool off starting from last night the first single figure of 9.5c here and tonight looks similar a below average august looks easily possible to me now, especially looking at the models.

[damianslaw]

...Or more to do with the fact we're still on the summer side of the season. As I said, the big change for nights will come during the second half. That's when the nights become appreciably cool and noticeably so. That's when naturally the minima will correct itself.

Yes if we do see hogh pressure build from an atlantic origin source then nights would be appreciably cool due to the time of year. Clear nights in the second half of August usually mean very cool ones.

[Weather-history]

Will summer make a last minute rescue?

Thats the subtitle of this thread. It looks more like nailing down the coffin and burying this summer.

Just look how poor August is compared to last August at this stage for England and Wales. Its already wetter than the whole of last August and sunshine figures are way down.

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/200808.htm

[Thundery wintry showers]

I was thinking that myself- it's looking increasingly like August will be the month that secures Summer 2008's position, in the memory of most, as a distinctly poor one, particularly for southern and south-eastern England which fared fairly okay in June and July.

The August CET still being kept up by warm nights I notice, so I don't think the CET is going to be anything exceptional, though it may threaten "lowest diurnal range" records, the way it's going. However, I think if this keeps up, high rainfall and low sunshine records certainly look under threat, especially with the dull wet weather projected to start on Saturday.

I went for 16.6C CET in my long range forecast, which is still a possibility, but around 16.0 looks a more likely landing spot.

[stewfox]

I was thinking that myself- it's looking increasingly like August will be the month that secures Summer 2008's position, in the memory of most, as a distinctly poor one, particularly for southern and south-eastern England which fared fairly okay in June and July.

How can it be distinctly poor if June and July was ok ?. The summer at worse has been average with a bit more rain B) . June cet just below average ,Cet for July and August above average, the final CET for August might turn out to be around average (depends on the last week)

Its been a very average summer, yes poor if you like 30c + heat but nothing unusual

Edited August 14, 2008 by stewfox

[Optimus Prime]

Exactly. The summer hasn't been that poor, selective memory if you ask me. Just had the best May in a long long time for England and Wales, June was average and nothing exceptional. July was generally poor but the last week was the est summer spell since 2006. August so far has been distinctly poor, especially by day though.

Could be a summer which has remnants of 1979 in it. June and July 1979 had exactly the same CET as this year. Although May was cold, 3.4c below this years.