August CET

[Weather-history]

Exactly. The summer hasn't been that poor, selective memory if you ask me. Just had the best May in a long long time for England and Wales, June was average and nothing exceptional. July was generally poor but the last week was the est summer spell since 2006. August so far has been distinctly poor, especially by day though.

Could be a summer which has remnants of 1979 in it. June and July 1979 had exactly the same CET as this year. Although May was cold, 3.4c below this years.

I keep banging on about this but this is why I use a summer index. No selective memory, no rose coloured glasses. The summer index suggests a poor summer here in Manchester.

[shuggee]

Out of interest Mr D - what was your final index figure for summer 2007?

[Weather-history]

Out of interest Mr D - what was your final index figure for summer 2007?

174, the lowest value since 1987

[stewfox]

I keep banging on about this but this is why I use a summer index. No selective memory, no rose coloured glasses. The summer index suggests a poor summer here in Manchester.

Hence the saying it always rains in Manchester B)

Anyway as at 13^th its 16.4. Its going to drop of a bit then as the end of the month warms up we will probably end up with cira 16.3c ?

Missed the last two months so need to be spot on

16.3c

[The PIT]

CET doesn't always tell the full story. Rainfall Sun how windy it was are all factors. You could have a very wet summer but people would think it was good if the rain fell a night and days sunny and dry. At the present time for us this August is going to be warmer than last years but with more rain. June was dryer this year with similar temps July just as wet but a lot warmer. This years summer better than last and reminded me of Summers of old.

[Snowyowl9]

Last august was cool for recent years 15.4c but it was a much better month than how this month will turn out as there was plenty of dry and sunnny weather, but as I said last night we could still end up near that mark again at this month`s end, as yesterday was a 0.2c drop and plenty of wet cool days to come from saturday and cool again tonight as was last night at 9.7c here a shade warmer today though with more sun it`s average for the month now.

[damianslaw]

Its been the relatively high nightime minimas so far that have kept the CET above average, daytime maxima have been decidely average if not a bit below par in northern districts.

However, tonight is looking a much chillier night in some parts than recent nights which will help the CET to fall perhaps 0.2. degrees again.

Can't see any warm days on the near horizon, so expecting at this stage for the final CET to be very near the average following the trend set since last Aug (Jan, Feb and May excepted of course).

[Thundery wintry showers]

How can it be distinctly poor if June and July was ok ?. The summer at worse has been average with a bit more rain . June cet just below average ,Cet for July and August above average, the final CET for August might turn out to be around average (depends on the last week)

Its been a very average summer, yes poor if you like 30c + heat but nothing unusual

I think you misinterpreted me a bit- I was pointing out that since June and July were close to average for the SE, only a very poor August would make it go down as a poor summer, and that's what many of us seem to be getting (though I have to say, it hasn't seemed too bad to me in Norwich- maybe I'm too used to the North East summers?)

This month has certainly been unusual so far, especially for northern and western areas. Philip Eden's stats had some regions at 40-45% of normal sunshine and up to 387% of normal rainfall!

[J10]

Both June and July locally were cool and lacking in sunshine, but August has been a complete washout. And August is really turning this Summer into a poor one, far worse than any from 2002 to 2006, I think there has been about 4 days this month with over an inch of rain, and today there was a lake on a local football pitch.

Of course this is entirely from a biased local perspective, but the contrast with the lack of any lasting High Pressure this summer has been to turn the east west split into even more focus this summer.

By the way, Mr Data, how do you calculate the Summer Index.

[Stu_London]

Both June and July locally were cool and lacking in sunshine, but August has been a complete washout. And August is really turning this Summer into a poor one, far worse than any from 2002 to 2006, I think there has been about 4 days this month with over an inch of rain, and today there was a lake on a local football pitch.

Of course this is entirely from a biased local perspective, but the contrast with the lack of any lasting High Pressure this summer has been to turn the east west split into even more focus this summer.

By the way, Mr Data, how do you calculate the Summer Index.

Were you holidaying abroad in August 2004?

[Kentish Man]

Just for the record as of August 14th Manley is on 16.4C which is 0.1C below the rolling average for 1971/2000. Provisional Hadley is 16.3C. Both figures though are slightly above the full month average CET of 16.2C. At this stage August could still go either way depending on whether a warmer more settled spell turns up for the final week or so.

[stewfox]

Its been the relatively high nightime minimas so far that have kept the CET above average, daytime maxima have been decidely average if not a bit below par in northern districts.

However, tonight is looking a much chillier night in some parts than recent nights which will help the CET to fall perhaps 0.2. degrees again.

Can't see any warm days on the near horizon, so expecting at this stage for the final CET to be very near the average following the trend set since last Aug (Jan, Feb and May excepted of course).

Am I right in thinking CET is based on an area enclosed by Lancashire, London and Bristol. I saw a map once cant remember the link ?

Another 70f here in the city of london

[Stu_London]

Just for the record as of August 14th Manley is on 16.4C which is 0.1C below the rolling average for 1971/2000. Provisional Hadley is 16.3C. Both figures though are slightly above the full month average CET of 16.2C. At this stage August could still go either way depending on whether a warmer more settled spell turns up for the final week or so.

Ensemble data points to slightly below average to average conditions, although there are some warmer runs especially in the last week. Add to that the variation that humidity, cloud cover and whether the sun shines or not has on temperatures and a good deal of uncertainty remains, however, I would be suprised if the CET finished outside half a degree either side of average.

Am I right in thinking CET is based on an area enclosed by Lancashire, London and Bristol. I saw a map once cant remember the link ?

Roughly you are correct, however I believe it's actually based on the minimum and maximum readings at six stations within that zone.

readings at other stations are used for quality control and calabration of the CET data.

[jemtom]

How can it be distinctly poor if June and July was ok ?. The summer at worse has been average with a bit more rain . June cet just below average ,Cet for July and August above average, the final CET for August might turn out to be around average (depends on the last week)

Its been a very average summer, yes poor if you like 30c + heat but nothing unusual

It may ultimately prove to be a "very average" summer according to the numbers, but the reality is it's been absolutely woeful in the eyes of Joe Public. Here in Cornwall it will heavily contribute towards economic ruin for many involved in the tourist trade and down here at least few, if any, would agree it's been anything approaching average.

[Duncan McAlister]

Cloudy, wet days that are slightly muggy do not make a good summer. Temperatures have been close to average but sunshine and rainfall totals have been poor. This is how summer will be remembered.

[stewfox]

Cloudy, wet days that are slightly muggy do not make a good summer. Temperatures have been close to average but sunshine and rainfall totals have been poor. This is how summer will be remembered.

I assume you mean rainfall totals have been high and sunshine figures low

Poor rainfall totals to me ,mean low rain fall ??

[J10]

Were you holidaying abroad in August 2004?

August 2004 was a lot better here than in Southern England, and this August is turning out much wetter than 2004.

Maybe the Summer in Southern England 2004 was worse, but there is no question at all for HERE, that this is a much worse summer than 2004, and certainly a lot cooler.

This summer has seen a real regional variation, with western areas coming out worse.

In fact there has been more rain locally in June and July alone than in the whole of each summer from 2002 to 2006.

(with 239mm in June and July 2008)

[Stu_London]

Maybe the Summer in Southern England 2004 was worse, but there is no question at all for HERE, that this is a much worse summer than 2004, and certainly a lot cooler.

Would agree about the temperature - August 2004 had a real tropical feel to it

[Duncan McAlister]

I assume you mean rainfall totals have been high and sunshine figures low

Poor rainfall totals to me ,mean low rain fall ??

Indeed I did, my bad

[Thundery wintry showers]

August 2004 was an exceptionally wet month, comparably so to August 2008 in some regions (though this August has been phenomenally wet in parts of the west!), but that's where the similarities end. Temperatures were generally higher by day, storm-related excitement was far more widespread (large portions of the country had between 5 and 10 days with thunder) and sunshine totals were also markedly higher. Indeed, significantly below average sunshine was largely confined to an area of SE Scotland and NE England, which was plagued by low cloud in the first half (unfortunately, I was there), other areas were mostly within 10% of average, the convective nature of the rainfall allowing the sun to shine in between.

So two very wet months, but I'd take August 2004 over August 2008 anytime, even for NE England/SE Scotland. Perhaps not for Boscastle though.

I'll agree that the June/July 2004 combo was if anything a little worse than June/July 2008 though- both temperatures and sunshine generally a little lower, and rainfall generally similar.

[Stu_London]

Just for the record as of August 14th Manley is on 16.4C which is 0.1C below the rolling average for 1971/2000. Provisional Hadley is 16.3C. Both figures though are slightly above the full month average CET of 16.2C. At this stage August could still go either way depending on whether a warmer more settled spell turns up for the final week or so.

0.2C shaved of Manley for the 15th - see what Hadley says later

Ensemble data from yesterdays 12z 850hpas still show slightly below average to average (not withstanding the rather erratic tangent the operational run went off at) - any clear weather will lead to progressively lower minimas as the month goes on - although a 16C ish landing still looks a good bet

[Kentish Man]

0.2C shaved of Manley for the 15th - see what Hadley says later

Ensemble data from yesterdays 12z 850hpas still show slightly below average to average (not withstanding the rather erratic tangent the operational run went off at) - any clear weather will lead to progressively lower minimas as the month goes on - although a 16C ish landing still looks a good bet

Going by this morning's model data a below average month looks increasingly likely as the arrival of somewhat warmer, more settled conditions seems to have been deferred until after the bank holiday (if they arrive at all). This will be too late to impact significantly on the CET.

[Weather-history]

This is significant

According to Philip Eden, NI has about 343% of the expected rainfall for this August up to yesterday. God knows how much it will be by the end of today!

[The PIT]

For us so far average rainfall and close to average temps. A fairly unremarkable August as such.

At least I won't melt at todays football match.

[Terminal Moraine]

Similar here, relative to average we seem to have been in one of the driest areas of the country so far this month; rainfall is running at about 115% of average for the first half of the month.

The N.I statistic is remarkable.