Winter 2008 / 2009 Your predictions

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Hi Coastie, as you're probably our most Northerly member, you'll know about it before the rest of us

Has Winter started up there yet ??

Erm, I think you mean "has summer started yet"

Seriously though, I have pointed out on other threads here that we have noticed a cooling trend up here over the last few years and our local met man believes that to be the case so perhaps we are seeing signs already. Trouble is with anything like this you don't get the confirmation until after its happened so to speak.

[Devon-Nelly]

I think this winter will be average to slightly below average, but will feel alot colder due to our stupidly mild winters of late.

We've had no snow for two winters running down here, though it did snow in April this year which is better than zilch

Into the future i think winter 2010/11 will be the one that will signal a turning point. lol just my crazy prediction, you should hear the other one lol

[Nick L]

You know what, I am usually a pessimist, but I am going for a slightly below average winter.

[Freezing-Point]

In the North East I have not had one day which I would consider warm or sunny so far this summer and and really don't expect to get more than one or two for the remainder if we are lucky. I still have my heating on, My 95 year old gran says this is the worst summer weather she can remember and that says something.

It just sums up the British weather over the last couple of years, both summer and winter that is. There is no problem with Spring and Autumn weather its just the summer and winter never get going.

So until there is evidence to suggest a serious pattern change anyone that predicts a hot summer or cold winter is betting against the odds.

I don't measure summers and winters on average temperatures that is just daft. For me (and most of the population) summer is measured on the amount of warm sunny days and winter the amount of snow and prolonged cold (amount of frosts overnight does not count in mid winter)

My prediction for Winter 08-09 is.... Gererally another let down so don't build any hopes up..... Brief interludes of cold, but nothing that stays for longer than 5 days. Snow is possible just about anywhere in the UK, but, if you are one of the lucky ones it will not last longer than 3 days.

So what I am basically saying is that the UK is stuck in a pattern which will not allow long periods of summer or winter weather.

If you disagre then please let me know what facts to base it on.

Just going out now to clean the rust from my new BBQ which has not been used yet.

[J10]

So what I am basically saying is that the UK is stuck in a pattern which will not allow long periods of summer or winter weather.

We do get summer and winter weather just in the wrong seasons. (btw Only Joking)

My concern is that the Greenland High will disappear when we need it the most in Winter again.

[Jack Wales]

Based on a w'ly QBO and on recent years I'm going for mild around CET +5C for DJF.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Very chilly and exciting late autumn with cold start to winter....but then it goes pear shaped and becomes average to slightly above.

BFTP

Here

An interesting read here for you coastie

Kippure

ta for that i'm a fan and he DID get the El Ninos and now La Nina spot on. The way it is going cycle 24 is looking pretty good too.

BFTP

Edited July 12, 2008 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Snowyowl9]

I`ll go for a winter slightly cooler to last winter but still with alot of atlantic weather domination sadly and storms but just more of the colder zonality to last year there will be cold spells no doubt and snow.

Winter snow came during spring last year same next year I`d say.

[kippure]

Very chilly and exciting late autumn with cold start to winter....but then it goes pear shaped and becomes average to slightly above.

BFTP

Kippure

ta for that i'm a fan and he DID get the El Ninos and now La Nina spot on. The way it is going cycle 24 is looking pretty good too.

BFTP

Theres one thing ive noticed over the past 5 years while working in the wilds of north donegal in the nw of ireland, Cold zonal flows are becoming colder. Theres more snow then sleet in the bigger showers , there seems to be more energy, unstablability in the flows form the same set-ups.

Its like coastie said , even there local weather forecaster has noticed a change.

Im going for a snowier winter here, as in more snow showers then sleet. Colder most definatly, but not with in the winter time frame, Dec to feb. More like end of october to march.

[acbrixton]

Erm, I think you mean "has summer started yet"

Seriously though, I have pointed out on other threads here that we have noticed a cooling trend up here over the last few years and our local met man believes that to be the case so perhaps we are seeing signs already. Trouble is with anything like this you don't get the confirmation until after its happened so to speak.

SC have you any recent data to back up the assertion that Shetland has cooled in the last few years please?

regards

ACB

[James M]

If we get things falling into place I think we can still get a good cold winter. I like to think that the more mild winters we have the more chance of a cold one soon, I mean it's got to give sometime hasn't it?

[Nick L]

If we get things falling into place I think we can still get a good cold winter. I like to think that the more mild winters we have the more chance of a cold one soon, I mean it's got to give sometime hasn't it?

Statistically speaking yes...but this IS the British weather we are talking about here!

[James M]

Statistically speaking yes...but this IS the British weather we are talking about here!

Yeah I'll probably be waiting till I'm 80.

[cyclonic happiness]

If the heating bills are going up by as much as 40% this winter, i think we'll have the hardest winter for decades!!!

[TEITS]

If the heating bills are going up by as much as 40% this winter, i think we'll have the hardest winter for decades!!!

As strange as it may sound coming from me, I sincerely hope with don't have a harsh winter due to the cost of my heating bills.

As an example I recieved my gas bill a few weeks ago for which I pay quarterly and 38 units of gas used cost £59. Now I compared this to a gas bill back in June 2004 and 38 units of gas only cost me £28. Can you imagine how much my gas bill would cost if you consider the amount of units used in winter would be 120 and then add on the 40% increase. Its such a shame the government do not provide support to disabled people aswell as the elderly because depending on your disablities a cold house/flat can have a harmful effect on your actual disablity.

[g7tfl]

If we get things falling into place I think we can still get a good cold winter. I like to think that the more mild winters we have the more chance of a cold one soon, I mean it's got to give sometime hasn't it?

Hi all,

I'm a bit of a lurker on this site, but thought i'd post my comments on this thread.

If by some miracle the jet stream continues pulling low pressure over the uk, we will see a mix of freeze and thaw, every five days or so.

If it stays north as in previous years, mild, damp, mild, yuk, drizzly, blaaargh!!

But, i suspect this year the jet stream may actually run south of the uk, giving us a mainly easterly airflow.

Also, if this current "mild" weather continues, with the air temperature peaking at 18-20 rather than 25-30 during the daylight hours, surely the landmass and seas

in the nothern hemisphere are not being topped up with heat to the extent of previous years.

Dryer but colder??

Edited July 13, 2008 by G7TFL

[Nick L]

Hi all,

I'm a bit of a lurker on this site, but thought i'd post my comments on this thread.

If by some miracle the jet stream continues pulling low pressure over the uk, we will see a mix of freeze and thaw, every five days or so.

If it stays north as in previous years, mild, damp, mild, yuk, drizzly, blaaargh!!

But, i suspect this year the jet stream may actually run south of the uk, giving us a mainly easterly airflow.

Also, if this current "mild" weather continues, with the air temperature peaking at 18-20 rather than 25-30 during the daylight hours, surely the landmass and seas

in the nothern hemisphere are not being topped up with heat to the extent of previous years.

Dryer but colder??

We had a cooler (in comparison to recent years) summer last year, but that didn't help us out for the forthcoming winter =[

We can always hope, but the mild winters surely have to come to an end sometime...surely?

Edited July 13, 2008 by nick2702

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

We had a cooler (in comparison to recent years) summer last year, but that didn't help us out for the forthcoming winter =[

We can always hope, but the mild winters surely have to come to an end sometime...surely?

One has to look at the bigger picture, widespread and severe cold poured out to large areas of the NH last winter but not the UK. We are in one of the last locations to get real or sustained cold due to our 'climate' and Atlantic influence. However, water sto our west are cold at present and look what our summer feels like and how chilly our nights are. I feel this winter will be the same as last year but cooler again but with serious cold not that far away.

Interesting what TEITS [Dave] says...if it does become cold for a lengthy period many many pockets will be stretched somewhat.

BFTP

[Geordiesnow]

We had a cooler (in comparison to recent years) summer last year, but that didn't help us out for the forthcoming winter =[

We can always hope, but the mild winters surely have to come to an end sometime...surely?

Cool/cold summers never means we will get a cold winter, the only thing cool/cold summers do is keep the SST around the UK average or just below therefore any snow events are less marginal. Hot summers does not mean we will get a mild winter either.

There is no comparisons between the seasons so i won't mind at all if we get an indian summer in Autumn as that won't alter if the winter will be mild or not, the same goes for spring, i don't mind if spring is cold or mild as it won't alter the summer months.

We are due a proper cold winter however i can only see a cold winter coming via high pressure like December 2007 and i expect any cold winter to be drier than average so therefore lack of snow. If we did had a colder winter but a drier winter then people will still moan about the lack of snow.

Its a bit too early too talk about winter i feel, i would like the rest of 'summer' to egt out of the way and enjoy some Autuminal weather.

[Wales123098]

theres is about 6 weeks left of "summer" because i just started my summer holidays and usualy after my 6 week break is finished the weather starts going down hill.

[mcweather]

It is interesting to note how many different ways that we can have a harsh winter.

After all the top three coldest winters of the 20th century were all very different to one another in their layout.

For instance 1963 was not the massive continuous snowfest that everyone seems to think it was.(although I admit there was an awful lot more than anything we've seen recently).There were essentially only 4 main blizzards and much of the time in between was bright and sunny but exceptionally cold so the snow hung around between the falls. 69 consecutive days in North Dorset for example.

Yet the cold spell and blizzards in southwest england between the 8th and 20th feb 1978 saw more aggregate snowfall at a good number of locations than the whole of the 63 winter put together.

1947 on the other hand was indeed a genuine snowfest with repeated heavy snowfalls and was by far the snowiest of the 20th century despite not really getting underway until almost a month later then the 63 winter.

79 was different again very wintery from new year onwards with occasional but very short lived thaws below 200 metres especially in the south and west.

All very different in character.

[Nick L]

Well although I would love a lot of snow, I would just like it to seasonal! Crisp, cold and sunny would be fine for me. It also can't be doing the wildlife any favours - mild winters luring them into a false sense of security and the usual early spring cold snap can cause them real harm.

But as I said we surely have to have a cold winter at some point. The question is when is that point?

[jemtom]

Several times last Winter we looked at the synoptics and said, "if only this was Summer it would be boiling" and several times already this Summer we've looked at the synoptics and said "if only this was Winter it would be freezing"

That just seems the way of things in the UK, plenty of perfect synoptic set ups, but always at the wrong time of year to produce sustained heat or chill.

I expect we'll be saying much the same this Winter too.

[summer blizzard]

Interestingly, i remember Terminal Moriane (i think) looking into precceding months and the following winters and there were four main conclusions...

1) We should actually be looking for an above average April

2) We should be looking for a cool and wet August

3) We should be looking for October to record a positive NAO

4) We should be looking for a cool and wet November

With wintry weather possible in just over three months, i am going to look for signs of Autumn/winter being upon us by monitering the model charts for signs of the Polar Cell expanding. What is the Polar Cell you ask and how can you see it on a weather chart??

Simply put, you cannot achieve a true polar feed without a connection to the Polar Cell/Vortex, and for winter, the further south, the better...

At the moment, we are seeing a very beaurificated pattern with dispaced lows (standard summer pattern)...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhavn1801.gif

However, as we look into FI, there are signs of a more Autumn pattern developing with cold cored low pressure systems digging down well into the Atlantic...

That is the type of pattern i will be looking for...

[Lettucing Gutted]

Interestingly, i remember Terminal Moriane (i think) looking into preceding months and the following winters and there were four main conclusions...

1) We should actually be looking for an above average April

2) We should be looking for a cool and wet August

3) We should be looking for October to record a positive NAO

4) We should be looking for a cool and wet November

With wintry weather possible in just over three months, i am going to look for signs of Autumn/winter being upon us by monitoring the model charts for signs of the Polar Cell expanding. What is the Polar Cell you ask and how can you see it on a weather chart??

Simply put, you cannot achieve a true polar feed without a connection to the Polar Cell/Vortex, and for winter, the further south, the better...

At the moment, we are seeing a very bifurcated pattern with displaced lows (standard summer pattern)...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhavn1801.gif

However, as we look into FI, there are signs of a more Autumn pattern developing with cold cored low pressure systems digging down well into the Atlantic...

That is the type of pattern i will be looking for...

And a bit more east as well. The problem with cold Atlantic troughs is that they build downstream Euro/Bartlett ridges over the continent which actually draws up warm air or shallow inversion cold at best.

A better position for the displaced upper cold low would be over us like so on 13/01/87:-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119870113.gif

Edited July 24, 2008 by Craig Evans