Winter 2008 / 2009 Your predictions

[Rich_Clements]

My totally unscientific prediction of the winter 2008/2009 is for more of the same as last year, I am with TEITS and hope it isn't a harsh winter as the fuel bills will be crippling.

[stewfox]

One has to look at the bigger picture, widespread and severe cold poured out to large areas of the NH last winter but not the UK. We are in one of the last locations to get real or sustained cold due to our 'climate' and Atlantic influence.

Trips to Poland last 'winter' I was amazed how mild it was

Did Eastern Europe tend to get above average temps last winter ? wasnt the main cold (relatively) further east ?

Im predicting a head line of -17c colder then Moscow in daily Mail 17 Jan 2009 (It will be -3 rest wind chill) a 3 day event

I do wonder if we will get more of a divide with Scotland and particulary the mountains getting a hell of a lot of snow

Edited July 24, 2008 by stewfox

[summer blizzard]

And a bit more east as well. The problem with cold Atlantic troughs is that they build downstream Euro/Bartlett ridges over the continent which actually draws up warm air or shallow inversion cold at best.

A better position for the displaced upper cold low would be over us like so on 13/01/87:-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119870113.gif

Indeed, that was a great cold spell, at the moment i am not looking at us getting cold blasts in particular, but mainly how far south the Polar Cell can push southward into the atlantic, hopefully this can also cool the SST's.

[Godot]

My completely unscientific punt : Temperatures will slightly above normal, but lower than we've been used to this decade. This and the relative mildness of the last few winters will lead to a public perception of winter 08/09 as a particularly cold and snowy one. There will be at least one period of heavy, wet snow in the SW which will cause widespread disruption due to melting snow and slush refreezing.

All the above is based on a secret formula that I can't reveal, obviously*. Any major newspapers looking for completely unfounded scary weather predictions can email me.

(*one part hopecasting, one part reverse psychology and a shot of projection from this Summer..)

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

SC have you any recent data to back up the assertion that Shetland has cooled in the last few years please?

regards

ACB

I dont but our local met man says he has, I'll ask him.

[Optimus Prime]

To get a few people in the mood and in trying to not break license agreements, a few BBC weather forecasts and news footage from the cold winter a long time ago;

[Rollo]

I think that after the string of mild winters we have experienced in recent years some of us are rightly afraid to stick our necks on the line and predict anything other than a continuance of recent winters. At some point it will change and who knows 2008/9 might be the one (thats NOT a forecast by the way) not yet .

[summer blizzard]

As we are almost upon August now, i thought that it would be a good idea to compare when the -10C upper isotherm developed in recent years, so that we can compare our level of cold pooling to previous years...

2007: 15th August

2006: 5th August

2005: 20th August

2004: 30th August

2003: 10th August

2002: 15th August

2001: 25th August

2000: 15th August

1999: 25th August

1998: 30th August

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnnh.html

Latest models show the -10C isotherm developing on the 3rd, so if it maintains this, we would be comperable to 2006.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn2401.png

Looks like out first deep lair trough (Autunm storm) is showing up on the models now.

[Nick L]

To get a few people in the mood and in trying to not break license agreements, a few BBC weather forecasts and news footage from the cold winter a long time ago;

Ive seen the Feb 1991 with Francis Wilson (that useless one off Sky News). The east of England are about to get 1 foot of snow and he seems like he is bored! If that happened today the mild rampers on the BBC would be out in seconds claiming the apocalypse is approaching.

I wish I could see snow events like those.

[January Snowstorm]

Ive seen the Feb 1991 with Francis Wilson (that useless one off Sky News). The east of England are about to get 1 foot of snow and he seems like he is bored! If that happened today the mild rampers on the BBC would be out in seconds claiming the apocalypse is approaching.

I wish I could see snow events like those.

Brilliant thanks sums up what global warming has done

[kold weather]

This is probably one of the hardest winters to forecast in a very very long time because nearly everything looks neutral at the moment, from the NAO to the ENSO signal.

This means that even weak variations from neutral may make a fair difference compared to normally. In some ways its like 05-06 but of course its fair too early right now to make any comprasions.

If I had to make a very early punt it'd be close to average simply based on all the neutral factors we have at the moment outr there.

Interestingly the Azores/Bermuda high has been really weak this summer and if this continues into the winter it would be interesting to observe.

Edited August 8, 2008 by kold weather

[TEITS]

This is probably one of the hardest winters to forecast in a very very long time because nearly everything looks neutral at the moment, from the NAO to the ENSO signal.

Frustrating in a way isn't it KW.

Although stratospheric warming, cooling events have an effect on the state of the AO which subsequently affects our climate. Maybe this winter because of the neutral signals from the ENSO, NAO the state of the AO is going to be a larger player than normal.

The call has to be average at the moment but I personally doubt anyone will be able to confidentally make a winter forecast unless the signals become a little clearer.

[Typhoon John]

Ive seen the Feb 1991 with Francis Wilson (that useless one off Sky News). The east of England are about to get 1 foot of snow and he seems like he is bored! If that happened today the mild rampers on the BBC would be out in seconds claiming the apocalypse is approaching.

I wish I could see snow events like those.

I remember Feb 91 so well even though I was only 5. We were flying back into Newcastle on either the Friday or Saturday night, my parents probably know which. We circled Newcastle for at least an hour before diverting to Manchester because they couldn't clear the snow from the runway at Newcastle. I remember looking out the window with big lights on the plane lighting up the snow and cloud all around us.

The snow wasn't too bad at Manchester but got progressively worse the further East we came. Instead of going back to Newcastle we got off the coach at the Carville exit of the A1. It was after midnight at this point and I remember walking through very deep snow and bitter cold with my mum guiding me and pulling suitcases!

If you think that sounds detailed for a 5 year old my parents did fill me in on a couple of details. One thing they said was when we got home our central heating had broken and the house was freezing after being empty for a week! The next day I remember snow drifts up to the kitchen window at the back of the house and making an amazing snowman. I think we probably have pictures somewhere.

[damianslaw]

Ive seen the Feb 1991 with Francis Wilson (that useless one off Sky News). The east of England are about to get 1 foot of snow and he seems like he is bored! If that happened today the mild rampers on the BBC would be out in seconds claiming the apocalypse is approaching.

I wish I could see snow events like those.

Wats refreshing when watching the weather forecasts during those severe winter spells is the lack of hype surrounding them. As you say if we have similar weather again, the hype would go through the roof and more importantly would put recent mini cold spells i.e. three days of northerly winds much in the shade and would be a massive reality check.

[Wales123098]

When people going start adding there predictions, we are weeks away from the start of fall and winter 08/09.

Iam changing mine to above average rainfall and average to below average temputures.

I expect it to be the coldest of many years.

[cheeky_monkey]

just looking at the jan 79 chart..if tht was a recent winter..i would have expected to see temps 10-12c with a sw flow like tht..not 3-5c...oh how times have changed!

[Lettucing Gutted]

just looking at the Jan 79 chart..if that was a recent winter..i would have expected to see temps 10-12c with a sw flow like tht..not 3-5c...oh how times have changed!

Indeed that is a feature that other winter months like January 1978 and January 1984 use to have known as Cool Zonality.

Edited August 9, 2008 by Craig Evans

[Wales123098]

3 weeks to fall 2008

[Geordiesnow]

3 weeks to fall 2008

Explain your post a bit more please?, i'm a bit confused here, its 3 weeks to Autumn thats all i do know.

[Nick L]

I remember Feb 91 so well even though I was only 5. We were flying back into Newcastle on either the Friday or Saturday night, my parents probably know which. We circled Newcastle for at least an hour before diverting to Manchester because they couldn't clear the snow from the runway at Newcastle. I remember looking out the window with big lights on the plane lighting up the snow and cloud all around us.

The snow wasn't too bad at Manchester but got progressively worse the further East we came. Instead of going back to Newcastle we got off the coach at the Carville exit of the A1. It was after midnight at this point and I remember walking through very deep snow and bitter cold with my mum guiding me and pulling suitcases!

If you think that sounds detailed for a 5 year old my parents did fill me in on a couple of details. One thing they said was when we got home our central heating had broken and the house was freezing after being empty for a week! The next day I remember snow drifts up to the kitchen window at the back of the house and making an amazing snowman. I think we probably have pictures somewhere.

I didn't exist . Those must be truly amazing memories. We surely have to have something like that again eventually. If we had that now health and safety drivel would go into overdrive and tell everybody not to move an inch to prevent certain death. We can't cope with a few inches let alone a few feet. My dad has told me about 1991 but it is very hard for me to imagine after having my whole life in the "no snow" period.

And I am going for wet and mild.

Edited August 10, 2008 by nick2702

[NorthernRab]

^ I've got some great memories of snowstorms, especially from Kingussie and Altnaharra, two of the snowiest locations in the UK. I'm moving down to Glasgow this year however, so I'll be a bit disappointed if a proper highland winter materialises - then again, my uncle just moved to Braemar, perhaps a few well-timed end of January visits might be in need?

I'm thinking this winter will be just below average, nothing too exciting with a few decent snow events. Possibly seeming like paradise compared to recent years.

[sundog]

This winter will do what most winters do nowadays and that will be letting most of us bloody down again!

[Roger J Smith]

Large negative temp anomalies over the Great Lakes region this past weekend, combined with large positives over the subarctic. For this time of year, anomalies near their maximum amplitude, could it be a sign of developing hemispheric blocking patterns?

This is a sample -- Toronto had a max of about 16 C today (except where the propane storage factory blew up, there it was about 2000). Up at Ennadai Lake which is about five hundred miles northwest of Churchill in the middle of the barren lands of Keewatin (nowadays Nunavut) it was near 30 C.

Should be the other way around this time of year.

[Gavin P]

Interesting Roger. So, at this early stage, you think things may be shaping for quite an interesting winter for once, then?