Winter 2008 / 2009 Your predictions

[Roger J Smith]

With any luck, the blocking would set up in a favourable pattern for some cold episodes in western Europe.

Here's an interesting sequence too ... 1917, 1940, 1963, 1986, 2009. See anything you like there? B)

[Optimus Prime]

Quite interesting Roger, but I don't believe that numerics and Meteorology go hand in hand. The poor summers ending in 8 is just a coincidence (most british summers are poor apart from more recent years) I was more fascinated by the 10 years on from the last cold winter of 1995/1996, 2005/2006 winter may have been cool (more especially in the far south east where the wind blew from the frozen continent at times) But it wasn't out from the norm.

We go through this every year, this winters going to be blocked.

Yeah, blocked to the south of us.

[Anti-Mild]

The problem is with the ENSO and PDO and, possibly, the NAO all forecast to be close to neutral; as well as hindering a confident forecast, it really could be all or nothing.

If the ENSO goes strongly in either direction, if the PDO is +ve, or if the NAO is +ve (again) then we can as good as kiss the winter goodbye.

Conversely, if the ENSO remains neutral, the PDO flips -ve, and the NAO goes -ve then the 23 year cycle might just come off.

I guess we'll know more closer to the time.

[Gavin P]

Roger, thats the 22/23 years Hale cycle?

[Rollo]

With any luck, the blocking would set up in a favourable pattern for some cold episodes in western Europe.

Here's an interesting sequence too ... 1917, 1940, 1963, 1986, 2009. See anything you like there? :o

Hi Roger, What happened in 1894 and thereafter back in blocks of 23 years? Your sequence omits (naturally) the year of 1979,where does that fit in? and also of course 47'. Seems to me that cold winters occur at a more random rate than perhaps we realise and what with GW they are getting much scarcer. My own take is that after this disasterous summer (in most areas of the UK) this coming winter will feature a very cold December but after that back to the similar dross of previous years.

[beng]

Hi Roger, What happened in 1894 and thereafter back in blocks of 23 years?

1894/1895 was a severe winter across W Europe with a negative January CET. :lol:

[Cheviot]

The winter will bring a long hard cold period with frequent snow events. The snow will accumulate on higher ground and lead to alpine conditions in wind-exposed areas. Farmers will struggle to feed their animals and wild creatures will perish or come to shelter by our homes.

Northern upland roads will spend much of the Winter impassable and Southerly upland areas (Dartmoor particularly) will be subjected to heavy snows, interspersed with the more normal Atlantic rains.

This will be a Winter of harsh Siberian winds and polar maritime air masses interspersed with continental and atlantic air. The British Isles will be the battle ground between these air masses.

As the ferocious cyclonic weather systems pile in, we will be longing for soft mild wet weather.

[Optimus Prime]

I don't know whether this has been posted yet, so here it is;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/winter2008_9/

"Winter temperatures are more likely to be either near, or above average, than below average over much of the European region. For northern Europe, including the UK, Winter 2008/9 is likely to be less mild than last winter."

So it sais winter is more likely to be near or above average thaqn below. But the winter is likely to be less mild than 2007/2008.

Basically, no where does it say the winter will be the worse since 1962/1963 or 2005/2006 for that matter.

[Rich_Clements]

Thats quite a generic forecast from them then.

[Geordiesnow]

Thats quite a generic forecast from them then.

Is that because you are not reading what you want to read?

Honest(and rather expected) forecast there, does not mean the winter will be mild and one or two severe cold spell(s) could change the winter from being average or above to below average

[The Eagle]

The vagueness of these forcasts really annoy me sometimes. I would prefer if this nonsense was stopped. Waste of time, waste of money IMO.

[NorthantsSnow]

I am sure they said the exact same things last year in their preliminary Winter forecast. "Average/slightly above average, but not as mild as the previous." It's predictable fence-sitting by the Met Office because truly, they don't really have much of a clue yet. Winter is ages away, lets get the rest of the summer and at least the best part of the autumn out of the way before we start worrying ourselves about the winter.

For what it's worth, I'm quietly optimistic about the coming winter. Purely because I think winter 07/08 would be difficult to top in the direness stakes - with no snow & above average temperatures for the many parts - the only way is up as they say.

[MAF]

well i do think they are using more and more data to produce their long range forecasts. and if i remember rightly the summer forecast was quite accurate. not sure what percentage of accuracy they are putting on the LRF, but am satisfied that they are at least putting the effort into getting it as accurate as they can.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

1894/1895 was a severe winter across W Europe with a negative January CET.

They were the days

[The watcher]

We can't seriously expect meto (or anyone for that matter) to give any indication of forecast for this winter...never. Did anyone predict our summer to be like this? I havent felt such a cool summer in a long time, nor as wet. Anything can happen, for all we know the coldest winter for decades is on our doorstep, or maybe the mildest since records began.

IMO (though I don't really know whats going to happen), we will have a below average conclusive of all 3 months. First half will be spot on average, then during January things will change bringing longer and more severe cold spells, bringing us a 2c below average.

There is no theory for such a lengthy forecast....some people can be biast (ie cold lovers) or some can play it safe and stick with the theory of "christmas pudding"....

Greenie Highs and any other synoptic that brings the best possiblity of good severe cold spells aren't impossible, and playing the chances I think one has to be on the card soon. Been a long time, and time is of the essence.

I don't really believe in all this greenhouse/global warming poop neither...the earth has been through many periods of severe warming or cooling, volcanos spew millions of tonnes of gases into our atmosphere and manys a times massive eruptions have changed the earths climate for short and long periods of time. We've certainly warmed over the last few decades and in the last century....but seriously, a few degrees and we're on the brink of extinction and heading for a warmer climate....or so they say. Even with global warming its not enough to change the outcome of our coldest synoptics...we just havent had a synoptic to back our theory. And of course a theory is just a theory and nothing more, its fact to our own knowledge but what are we to know?.....#

Be open minded....take each day as it comes....there will be a turning point and nobody knows when.

[Devon-Nelly]

I think a winter similar to 2003/04 could be on the cards but i'm abit optimistic about this one, will be intresting to see how it unfolds in the coming months with a possible El Nino developing.

Edit: Although El Nino looks possible a good couple of cold-ish winter months are not out of the question.

Edited August 12, 2008 by Devon-Nelly

[sundog]

If i was a betting man i would go for a mild and dryish winter. I reckon winter be drier then this summer has been. Since this summer has been a washout that might not be hard even for winter

Edited August 12, 2008 by sundog

[kippure]

Frequant heavy snow, below average tempetures, Very windy at times, Cold and grey with some record breaking cold frosty weather.

[sundog]

Frequant heavy snow, below average tempetures, Very windy at times, Cold and grey with some record breaking cold frosty weather.

I think your letting your heart rule your head but we can dream

[Captain Peacock]

Well here's my prediction for winter 2008/9 FWIW!

The current cool & wet spell will last until around Bank Holiday weekend when it will turn very warm & sunny. This warm, sunny weather will last until around the end of October when it will turn frosty with still, sharp sunny days. During the third week in November, it will turn milder with very wet & windy weather until early December when it will turn very cold with several moderate snowfalls during the month interspersed with cold sharp sunny days & hard night frosts. Daytime temperatures hovering around freezing or just above. This cold weather will last until around New Year when a thaw will set in accompanied by some heavy rainfall & possibly with local flooding due to high rainfall amounts combined with snowmelt.

This milder wet weather will continue until around the third week of January when it will again turn very cold with periodic snowfalls interspersed with cold, bright days and hard night frosts. Daytime temperatures mainly just below freezing with the exception of a few very sunny still days where the temperature may get slightly above freezing. This very cold weather will last until early April when milder, sunny weather will arrive heralding Spring's arrival.

On what do I base this? The weather patterns of 1978 which this year has followed very closely so far - although not quite as cold as summer 1978 was!

Captain Peacock.

[Gavin P]

Oooooo thats an exciting forecast.

[kippure]

Well here's my prediction for winter 2008/9 FWIW!

The current cool & wet spell will last until around Bank Holiday weekend when it will turn very warm & sunny. This warm, sunny weather will last until around the end of October when it will turn frosty with still, sharp sunny days. During the third week in November, it will turn milder with very wet & windy weather until early December when it will turn very cold with several moderate snowfalls during the month interspersed with cold sharp sunny days & hard night frosts. Daytime temperatures hovering around freezing or just above. This cold weather will last until around New Year when a thaw will set in accompanied by some heavy rainfall & possibly with local flooding due to high rainfall amounts combined with snowmelt.

This milder wet weather will continue until around the third week of January when it will again turn very cold with periodic snowfalls interspersed with cold, bright days and hard night frosts. Daytime temperatures mainly just below freezing with the exception of a few very sunny still days where the temperature may get slightly above freezing. This very cold weather will last until early April when milder, sunny weather will arrive heralding Spring's arrival.

On what do I base this? The weather patterns of 1978 which this year has followed very closely so far - although not quite as cold as summer 1978 was!

Captain Peacock.

I like it alot

[steve123]

my pridiction for the winter of 08/09 is as follows for my area:last week in october will see highpreshure building in from the south east this will block the atlanic flow untill the second week in november it wil be foggy and frosty at night cold during day time to below avrage temps but concederbly dry to.during the later part of november we are lightly to see return to mild damp and somtimes verry windy weathe even a spell of stormy conditins.same as the first half of december at or around mid point of december the weather will become dry and cold even a few wintery showers as we pic up a north or even a north easterly flow temps will be a litle below avrage.end of dec/jan mild atlantic air will move in ther will be a lot of heavy rain full as this pulls away mid jan time it will draw in some cold air temperly givin a widespread snow event wich will last a coupell of days acumilations could be queit large in places/but as we come to end of jan return to avrage temps or even warm air is pumpd up across the south/feb looks damp and mild somtimes weter than avrage/but theres a sting in the tail come end feb march cold conditions will return with an easterly blast this will last about a week some very nasty conditions.by time we in mid march we will recover back to mild air.this forcast is based on my exsperiance of living in this part of the world so proberly be well off target coments welcome steve.

[cheeky_monkey]

I am sure they said the exact same things last year in their preliminary Winter forecast. "Average/slightly above average, but not as mild as the previous." It's predictable fence-sitting by the Met Office because truly, they don't really have much of a clue yet.

lets be fair the met office have been pretty good with their winter forcasts over the last few years...so cant sit on the fence if they are right every time!

Edited August 13, 2008 by cheeky_monkey

[Michael Winston]

Frequent heavy snow, below average tempetures, Very windy at times, Cold and grey with some record breaking cold frosty weather. :lol:

Hear, hear!!

Well said, Kippure - I'll look forward to that! (...and yours, too, Captain Peacock)

Regards,

Mike.