Major Hurricane Ike

[tinybill]

Fox now reporting breaking news, low lying areas of Houston to be evacuated.

http://www.galveston.com/webcams/

dont know if this has been posted

[opplevelse]

A very large and very ragged open eye has formed

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...relative_0.html

This could be the precursor to further rapid intesification / tightening, and is not good news for coastal areas. ...

[hoghedge]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?r...11&loop=yes

I think you can see the edge of the eye coming into the bay here

Apparently the main drag in Galveston is now flooding already

And there's an Oil Tanker stuck out in the waters that has had some sort of failure - so assume it's just floating . and Finally - they suspect that there are 30,000 people still in Galveston ???

Edited September 12, 2008 by hoghedge

[liquidjp]

Welll station 42316 has either blown away, or lost power with no change in any reported figures over the last hour ... which I doubt it coincidence :lol:

Next in the firing line is 42047

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42047

Whats the lag time on that station? have got results as of 3pm BST

[Iceberg]

Big swafe of 100Kt winds now.

140900 2702N 09116W 7515 02364 9850 +151 +150 179099 101 060 010 00

140930 2702N 09118W 7521 02349 9842 +151 +151 179100 102 059 008 00

141000 2702N 09120W 7520 02342 9831 +152 +152 178104 105 062 006 00

141030 2702N 09122W 7518 02338 9825 +151 +151 177107 108 066 006 00

141100 2702N 09124W 7513 02336 9818 +152 +141 178107 108 063 005 00

141130 2702N 09126W 7518 02324 9801 +164 +135 178106 107 064 007 00

141200 2702N 09128W 7534 02302 9788 +176 +129 172106 107 067 005 00

141230 2702N 09130W 7523 02307 9788 +165 +144 170108 111 068 008 00

141300 2702N 09132W 7516 02304 9780 +156 +156 174104 106 070 010 00

141330 2702N 09135W 7523 02284 9772 +150 +150 173108 111 073 014 00

141400 2702N 09137W 7520 02274 9756 +151 +151 174110 112 076 014 03

141430 2702N 09139W 7490 02290 9739 +147 +147 177109 111 076 030 00

141500 2702N 09141W 7523 02242 9725 +147 +147 179110 114 078 033 00

141530 2702N 09143W 7479 02276 9700 +157 +157 185101 108 086 014 00

The eye is almost closed now except for the NW section.

142030 2701N 09205W 7500 02165 9524 +190 +190 185042 043 035 006 03

Pressure now at 952 so some intensification going on.

[tinybill]

Big swafe of 100Kt winds now.

140900 2702N 09116W 7515 02364 9850 +151 +150 179099 101 060 010 00

140930 2702N 09118W 7521 02349 9842 +151 +151 179100 102 059 008 00

141000 2702N 09120W 7520 02342 9831 +152 +152 178104 105 062 006 00

141030 2702N 09122W 7518 02338 9825 +151 +151 177107 108 066 006 00

141100 2702N 09124W 7513 02336 9818 +152 +141 178107 108 063 005 00

141130 2702N 09126W 7518 02324 9801 +164 +135 178106 107 064 007 00

141200 2702N 09128W 7534 02302 9788 +176 +129 172106 107 067 005 00

141230 2702N 09130W 7523 02307 9788 +165 +144 170108 111 068 008 00

141300 2702N 09132W 7516 02304 9780 +156 +156 174104 106 070 010 00

141330 2702N 09135W 7523 02284 9772 +150 +150 173108 111 073 014 00

141400 2702N 09137W 7520 02274 9756 +151 +151 174110 112 076 014 03

141430 2702N 09139W 7490 02290 9739 +147 +147 177109 111 076 030 00

141500 2702N 09141W 7523 02242 9725 +147 +147 179110 114 078 033 00

141530 2702N 09143W 7479 02276 9700 +157 +157 185101 108 086 014 00

The eye is almost closed now except for the NW section.

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/feature?sectio...&id=6102015

GREAT TV STATION

[hoghedge]

[opplevelse]

Whats the lag time on that station? have got results as of 3pm BST

Im not sure, but you are right I did not notice that, it may only report once every 2 hours or so. I will try and find a more frequent one.

The oil tanker thing is not good, the same thing happened in a BIG way off Newcastle in Australia earlier this year ... and that was not pretty

and that was a small storm

Edited September 12, 2008 by opplevelse

[kold weather]

Winds of 114kts at flight level, very impressive and it seems like Ike is starting to strenghthen on thje run upto a hurricane, this probably will make it to major strength, indeed 114kts is possibly good enough for this to be upgraded to 100kts...

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

More news related to the storm, but a couple of Galvestons local news website:

* Warning - Slow(ish) Connection:

http://www.galvestondailynews.com/

Interesting news story also from the BBC relating to the history of Hurracaines at Galveston:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4270640.stm

[opplevelse]

Winds of 114kts at flight level, very impressive and it seems like Ike is starting to strenghthen on thje run upto a hurricane, this probably will make it to major strength, indeed 114kts is possibly good enough for this to be upgraded to 100kts...

Yep. I just hope this fledgling eye collapses for Houstons sake.

FYI this is the first time since leaving cuba that Ike has had a descernible eye.

Buoy 42047 updated (13:30GMT)

40knt winds with 50knt gusts at 40deg, pressure 989hPa and falling

[Matty M]

Ike looking alot better on satellite presentations at the moment IMO.

Going to be an incredibly rough night over there, saw on CNN one stupid guy from Galveston whose staying put, he lives right by the sea.

This could be one of the deadliest Hurricanes in a long time.

News feeds only really catching up to this now.

[liquidjp]

Without wanting to personify Ike further, it's almost as if he is acting like an inpetulant child just to p*** off the NHC!!

[hoghedge]

Reuters

Freighter stranded near path of Hurricane Ike (petroleum)

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNew...240499420080912

Hurricane Ike threatens Texas with wall of water

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN9645380320080912

[londonsnow]

still no recognition of ike on the beeb. odd on a flat news day

[Gray-Wolf]

I've also been watching a very strange eye appear and it has struck me how quickly the 'wraparound' for the break is pulling across and closing the eye. I take it this makes it possible for 12hrs or so of (rapid??) intensification before landfall.........not good for Galveston, not good at all.

Naggin's "mother of all storms" comment will, IMHO, cost lives as folk fail to evacuate on the back of Gus's failure to be the Mother of all storms as forecast.

How do you not become the 'boy who cried wolf' in such situations??? is it 'human' to do as little as is deemed necessary in such situations???

[kold weather]

I'm hearing that around 25% of the Galveston population are remaining in the island, if thats true then this will be deadly hurricane...

Storm surge will almost certainly cuase huge coastal damage, prehaps even total damage given the surge is expected to be between 20-30ft.

This will probably be Texas's Katrina, I really don't think thats over the top at all, just hope the deaths aren't even close to that...the surge will sadly cause extreme damage and it will more then likely top the seawall in Galveston.

[liquidjp]

THe latest from good old 42361

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )

Wind Speed (WSPD): 56.3 kts

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.58 in

The wind speed has massivle dropped, significatly (I think) wind direction has also changed... could the eye, such that it is be passing over?

edit: no pressure isn't falling

Edited September 12, 2008 by liquidjp

[kold weather]

I should also mention that the current flooding is all down to coastal flooding ahead of the main surge, its pretty much the size of the waves that are making a big difference right now, already upto 19ft so it should be readily overspilling onto the sea wall now.

The surge according to the slosh model, should really start to rise in around 4-6hrs time when we should start to see some really severe damage start to occur...

[Iceberg]

I think a fair estimate is between 50,000-150,000 people still in areas of extreme risk.

The problem with the wall is that there will be no noticable build up for those on the otherside, just water rising too rapidly to escape.

I have to admit I find the comment just release from the NHC slightly distasteful.

A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE

LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE ONLY

TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT INCREASE

a 10Kt increase is a big difference and can mean the difference between structural failure and non structural failure, A Major hurricane also helps to focus minds and convince people to evacuate rather than a CAT 2(non-major hurricane)

[opplevelse]

...Naggin's "mother of all storms" comment will, IMHO, cost lives as folk fail to evacuate on the back of Gus's failure to be the Mother of all storms as forecast.

How do you not become the 'boy who cried wolf' in such situations??? is it 'human' to do as little as is deemed necessary in such situations???

Very true, I remember hearing that and thinking :lol: you idiot.

Oh well the stayers will be nominating themselves for Darwin awards.

I notice 42361 finally updated! thanks for posting! It could very well be the eye, but I doubt it. I THINK 42361 is a little North of the eye, so the change of wind direction but constant pressure is not that surprising.

[tinybill]

I'm hearing that around 25% of the Galveston population are remaining in the island, if thats true then this will be deadly hurricane...

Storm surge will almost certainly cuase huge coastal damage, perhaps even total damage given the surge is expected to be between 20-30ft.

This will probably be Texas's Katrina, I really don't think thats over the top at all, just hope the deaths aren't even close to that...the surge will sadly cause extreme damage and it will more then likely top the seawall in Galveston.

watching fox the only road out is flooding in parts

[JT Texas]

Here is a mean sea level measure, about fifty or sixty meters in front of the seawall.

http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plotcomp.s...sure+Pier%2C+TX

[kold weather]

Iceberg, I can see what the NHC are talking about however, becase its really not going to make a difference to the storm surge now and that going to be the killer if people have stayed behind.

I heard an interveiw earlier and the people said the reason they aren't leaving is because Rita was progged to hit but went east and they are right near the coast....just hope their relatives are ready to identify thier bodies...

[Coopsy]

http://www.cnn.com/

Headline news. The video is amazing. It already appears like Galveston is in the sea. Based on this evidence it doe not look good for the next few days