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Major Hurricane Ike

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opplevelse Newbie

opplevelse

Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
Posted
I've seen this presentation a few times before, most notably with Frances 2004, that also came in as a 2 with eventually a huge eye forming but its inner core remained a mess, looks like Ike has done the exact same thing.

Tides already at 7ft in Galveston, 2 and a half foot above Slosh model, if you add 2 and a half feet onto the slosh estimate...that means the surge would over top the Galveston seawall.

I dont remember tracking Frances ... must have been down the pub :o

The thing I find surprising is the mass o convection on the South East Quadrant. Notethat the image posted is the HIGH range 85GHz image ... not the low range, so that convection is very intense indeed. But what surprises me most is how such a lopsided messy and disorganised system can sustain 100knot winds ...

And yes, I agree that it seems this might finaly form a massive eye ...

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MAF Experienced

MAF

Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
Posted
Yes i know i know i had forgot to click submit... I'll go back to lurking and frantically hitting F5;)
no!!! carry on posting! am sure your contribution is as good as everyone elses.
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opplevelse Newbie

opplevelse

Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
Posted (edited)

108.8 kts!

Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )

Wind Speed (WSPD): 56.0 m/s

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 968.8 mb

Air Temperature (ATMP): 26.0 °C

Dew Point (DEWP): 24.0 °C

Heat Index (HEAT): 28.0 °C

How high will she go!

Edited by opplevelse
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Waves now breaching the seawall at Galveston Island:

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liquidjp Newbie

liquidjp

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
no!!! carry on posting! am sure your contribution is as good as everyone elses.

Ah contraire I still have to look up loads of the abreviations!!

But given we have sustained winds of 108!!kts now at our little buoy (bit oil rig) are we expencting the NHC up up the forcast?

Why are the NHC giving forcasts/advisories in 3 time zones, am sure they don't usually do?

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robl1200 Newbie

robl1200

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge, Derbyshire
  • Location: Whaley Bridge, Derbyshire
Posted

Coastal areas of Galveston already under water, I expect the reason why wave heights are so high right now is due to the outbanding of IKE, the fact its not a compact storm but rather what is known as a "blowout" storm means a lot of energy is being dissipated outwards aswell as being fed inwards.

20ft wave heights already coupled with the surge means I expect to see a surge of 25ft+ hitting the coast.

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MAF Experienced

MAF

Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
Posted (edited)

yeah they quite often have different timezone times, if you look at the advisory and compare it to the forecast and discussion they often have the timezone of the Author

Edited by Mick
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SalopWatcher Enthusiast

SalopWatcher

Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Floods...
  • Location: Shrewsbury
Posted
Waves now breaching the seawall at Galveston Island:

Wathing that feed too... showing houses near the cost all under water alread, and its a way off landfall....

it looks certain some people will not have houses to return to in that area...

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
  • Author
Posted

I would expect the NHC to up this to a CAT 3 on that evidence, this might be squal related, but it certainly support 95Kts and a CAT 3. This will also politically be a good move.

Expect an upgrade in the hour.

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robl1200 Newbie

robl1200

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge, Derbyshire
  • Location: Whaley Bridge, Derbyshire
Posted
Wathing that feed too... showing houses near the cost all under water alread, and its a way off landfall....

it looks certain some people will not have houses to return to in that area...

If thats now bad enough, its low tide aswell.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)
I would expect the NHC to up this to a CAT 3 on that evidence, this might be squal related, but it certainly support 95Kts and a CAT 3. This will also politically be a good move.

Expect an upgrade in the hour.

Problem is its at 400ft high, so you can easily reduce that by 15-20%. Also the other thing is it may well be showing winds too high, as a dropsonde was dropped just 20 miles NW of there and only showed winds of around 55kts which is a good deal lower then you'd expect given the winds at that obs.

NHC may well up to 95kts...but thats still a category-2 iceberg at 110mph, the NHc don't up to a 3 till 100kts.

Deep convection trying to wrap around from the eastern quadrant thanks to Dmax.

Edited by kold weather
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MAF Experienced

MAF

Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
Posted

yes Kold, i have been watching the windspeeds around the area and they all seem low considering how big Ike is. and agree with you on NHC not changing the category of Ike, windspeeds just don't warrant it.

just as an example here is the continuous windspeed data from buoy #42035 which is situated 22NM from Galveston

time direction speed

6:50 am NE ( 46 deg ) 27.8 kts

6:40 am NE ( 43 deg ) 27.8 kts

6:30 am NE ( 45 deg ) 28.4 kts

6:20 am NE ( 45 deg ) 28.6 kts

6:10 am NE ( 45 deg ) 27.0 kts

6:00 am NE ( 47 deg ) 28.0 kts

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opplevelse Newbie

opplevelse

Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
Posted (edited)
This site should come in handy

http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/ike.html

Watched that for a little bit, saw simple factual errors on each station ... :lol: oh well America is full of Americans I guess.

Latest update from 42361 still at 99Knots pressure dropped a little further but wind direction has not changed yet

Wind Direction (WDIR):NE ( 40 deg true )

graph04.gifWind Speed (WSPD):51.0 m/s

graph04.gifAtmospheric Pressure (PRES):967.8 mbgraph04.gifAir Temperature (ATMP):26.0 °Cgraph04.gifDew Point (DEWP):24.0 °Cgraph04.gifHeat Index (HEAT):28.0 °Cgraph04.gif

Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

Edited by opplevelse
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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

The biggest issue is the fact high tide tomorrow is very early, around 3.45 their time which is about an hour or two before expected landfall, just about the worst time possible!

I'm increasingly thinking the surge will top the sea wall in Galveston and the city will be flooded.

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WS Evolution Newbie

WS Evolution

Posted
  • Location: Vale of York: 14m above mean sea level
  • Location: Vale of York: 14m above mean sea level
Posted
The biggest issue is the fact high tide tomorrow is very early, around 3.45 their time which is about an hour or two before expected landfall, just about the worst time possible!

I'm increasingly thinking the surge will top the sea wall in Galveston and the city will be flooded.

Computer models shown on local news have Galveston completely underwater.

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MAF Experienced

MAF

Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
Posted
The biggest issue is the fact high tide tomorrow is very early, around 3.45 their time which is about an hour or two before expected landfall, just about the worst time possible! I'm increasingly thinking the surge will top the sea wall in Galveston and the city will be flooded.
and it should also be noted that Ike is giving a tremendous amount of PPN, more so than "normal" Cat2 events.

NOAA Advisory #45A issued

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER

EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED

AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

full text here >> http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/121150.shtml

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hoghedge Newbie

hoghedge

Posted
  • Location: Howth, Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Howth, Dublin, Ireland
Posted (edited)

Link for Tides and Currents

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/gmap3/

(sorry if it was already posted)

Houston N/West now announcing it is time to evacuate - Talking about houses being destroyed - need to get out soon - rather late in the day I think.....

Edited by hoghedge
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tinybill Seasoned

tinybill

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
Posted

got fox news on next bedroom its already brecking over the 17 foot wall

and it should also be noted that Ike is giving a tremendous amount of PPN, more so than "normal" Cat2 events.

NOAA Advisory #45A issued

full text here >> http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/121150.shtml

noaa saying now cat 3 on land fall

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opplevelse Newbie

opplevelse

Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
Posted

One of the first VISIBLE sat images for the day ...

seems to show a slight depression either at or slightly NW of the center of rotation

20080912.1245.goes12.x.vis1km_high.09LIKE.90kts-954mb-269N-922W.100pc.jpg

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Significant wave height already at 17ft:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wave.php?sta...;time_label=CDT

no wonder the waves are already starting to go into the road on the Galveston seawall. Waves will increase soon as we head towards the high tide.

given waves already at 17ft, pretty safe to say that there is going to be significant flooding in Galveston, probably akin to what we saw in New Orleans with Katrina...

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opplevelse Newbie

opplevelse

Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
Posted

And RAMSDIS images back for the day too

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...relative_0.html

Wind speed now down 85knots but direction is still the same so "eye" has not yet passed station 42361

Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )

Wind Speed (WSPD): 45.0 m/s

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 966.8 mb

Air Temperature (ATMP): 26.0 °C

Dew Point (DEWP): 25.0 °C

Heat Index (HEAT): 28.2 °C

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