Major Hurricane Ike

[Gray-Wolf]

Yup It puts Galveston and Houston on the NW side of things so we'd (they'd) better hope it isn't running a high storm surge.

What's the story on the convection to the north of Haiti? it seems to be developing on the next 'wave crest' and has grown somewhat through the night hours.

[opplevelse]

Bouy 42001 down another 4.3mb in the last hour at 997.7mb. winds still around the 35knt mark with gusts over 40knts. Waves now at 6.8m

[Iceberg]

Ike is really tightening up this morning, still 97Kts reached but apart from the eye Ike is looking as healthy as it possible can.

The waves and swell will be a big issue, due to the large pressure field on the north side. Waves of 10-30 meters are possible and a swell of 5 meters or so, It will certainly swop anything on the coast and go a good ways inland.

A. 11/07:25:20Z

B. 25 deg 03 min N

087 deg 18 min W

C. 700 mb 2638 m

D. 79 kt

E. 065 deg 5 nm

F. 138 deg 097 kt

G. 045 deg 036 nm

H. 946 mb

I. 11 C/ 3046 m

J. 17 C/ 3045 m

K. 11 C/ NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C8

N. 12345/7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF308 2309A IKE OB 11

MAX FL WIND 97 KT NE QUAD 07:14:10 Z

[Somerset Squall]

Yup It puts Galveston and Houston on the NW side of things so we'd (they'd) better hope it isn't running a high storm surge.

What's the story on the convection to the north of Haiti? it seems to be developing on the next 'wave crest' and has grown somewhat through the night hours.

I'm not sure but could it be the remnants of Josephine?

[Mondy]

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2008/09/post_39.html

GFDL progs a Cat 5 Ike

[ChartViewer]

Latest Sat images of Ike on the link - Taken from the International Space Station....One of which shows IKE covering over half of Cuba.Absolutely stunning images on that NASA site.................

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/..._ike091008.html

[johnholmes]

they certainly are

[Iceberg]

Galveston could be in real trouble from this as well as Houston.

Latest Vortex shows the inner and outer eye walls fighting each other, very good temp differential of 9C. The inner core needs to sort it self out.

000

URNT12 KNHC 110923

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008

A. 11/09:05:30Z

B. 25 deg 13 min N

087 deg 36 min W

C. 700 mb 2650 m

D. 66 kt

E. 127 deg 030 nm

F. 203 deg 093 kt

G. 131 deg 098 nm

H. 947 mb

I. 7 C/ 3045 m

J. 16 C/ 3046 m

K. 13 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. CO4-12

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF308 2309A IKE OB 16

MAX FL WIND 97 KT NE QUAD 07:14:10 Z

MAX FL TEMP 17 C 307 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR

[opplevelse]

ChartViewer, thank you very much! Lovely images, great find!

Bouy 42001 down to 995.6 falling rapidly. Sustained at 40knts 71kmh and gusting to 48knts (90kmh) Wave Height 7.4m or nearly 25ft! and Ike is still at least 6hrs away from it

Edited September 11, 2008 by opplevelse

[liquidjp]

Bouy 42001 down to 995.6 falling rapidly. Sustained at 40knts 71kmh and gusting to 48knts (90kmh) Wave Height 7.4m or nearly 25ft! and Ike is still at least 6hrs away from it

How strong are these thing, could it take a direct hit from a severly misbehaving hurricane and still transmit?

[Iceberg]

A very impressive wind field in the NW sector. The 90Kt winds are spreadout out, ready for the next bout of intensification. Ike should have a very very large CAT 2 wind field.

105000 2507N 08558W 7521 02453 9974 +137 +126 171083 084 051 008 00

105030 2510N 08558W 7521 02452 9974 +137 +124 171085 086 050 007 00

105100 2512N 08559W 7519 02455 9971 +141 +122 169085 086 047 008 00

105130 2515N 08559W 7518 02456 9971 +141 +121 167082 083 048 008 00

105200 2518N 08600W 7521 02451 9967 +143 +125 170084 085 045 009 03

105230 2520N 08601W 7522 02448 9964 +142 +126 170085 085 999 999 03

105300 2522N 08603W 7521 02446 9966 +137 +129 168085 086 999 999 03

105330 2522N 08605W 7522 02443 9960 +140 +130 165083 084 049 007 00

105400 2522N 08607W 7522 02439 9959 +138 +132 162085 087 051 008 00

105430 2522N 08610W 7522 02437 9954 +138 +137 159087 088 051 008 00

105500 2522N 08612W 7514 02442 9949 +136 +135 162088 090 051 015 00

105530 2522N 08614W 7492 02459 9940 +137 +136 162088 092 052 016 00

105600 2522N 08617W 7494 02453 9939 +135 +135 162086 088 055 013 00

105630 2522N 08619W 7501 02442 9930 +141 +136 161085 086 056 009 00

105700 2522N 08622W 7504 02434 9927 +139 +137 161084 087 058 013 00

105730 2522N 08624W 7495 02440 9923 +137 +137 167085 088 061 012 00

105800 2522N 08626W 7497 02435 9914 +140 +140 169079 080 060 011 00

105830 2522N 08629W 7520 02401 9908 +142 +142 170082 086 061 011 00

105900 2522N 08631W 7510 02407 9900 +144 +144 171089 090 061 011 00

105930 2523N 08633W 7512 02401 9897 +140 +140 166087 089 060 014 00

[Iceberg]

The eye is clearing out so we should see some more pressure drops soon.

Dvorak of 5.5 which would translate to 100Kt, this will be a CAT 3 even if no more pressure drops occur IMO.

Edited September 11, 2008 by Iceberg

[Iceberg]

More.....

112200 2608N 08701W 6970 03033 9941 +074 +074 141089 091 074 013 00

112230 2610N 08658W 6964 03045 9959 +067 +067 140094 097 070 014 00

112300 2612N 08657W 6969 03043 9960 +067 +067 134092 093 060 015 00

Flight winds to 97Kt.

[kold weather]

ell the inner eyewall is gone at last, the outer eyewlal has really contracted but guess what...:

000

URNT12 KNHC 111129

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008

A. 11/11:02:20Z

B. 25 deg 20 min N

087 deg 52 min W

C. 700 mb 2647 m

D. 59 kt

E. 229 deg 4 nm

F. 312 deg 070 kt

G. 226 deg 036 nm

H. 946 mb

I. 12 C/ 3049 m

J. 17 C/ 3044 m

K. 10 C/ NA

L. OPEN NW

M. CO8-42

N. 12345/7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF308 2309A IKE OB 21

MAX FL WIND 92 KT NE QUAD 11:12:40 Z

Its got yet another outer eyewall forming...Ike just will not ramp up much at all if this keeps happening, its a good job given the track is going to take this very close to the Galveston/Houston region, even a 2/3 is going to cause some pretty severe damage, esp to the skyscrapers in Houston, going to be lots of flying glass. Ike will probably struggle to come in even as a 3 with this sort of wind profile, though I'd still call for a 3 if I was forecasting it. The only good thing is the inner eyewall is pretty solid right now and before the outer eyewall strengthens there is probably a 12hrs period where winds can raise somewhat.

The other problem is given the huge wind field the hurricane winds are going to hit a very large region of the Texan coast and also parts of western LA quite likely as well. CAt-1 conditions can still cause bad damage and there will be a fairly hefty surge as well given the huge size of Ike. Its certainly up there in terms of largest gulf hurricanes ever...just 5 miles shy of Katrina and I suspect it'll grow a little more and surpass it by landfall.

Edited September 11, 2008 by kold weather

[Iceberg]

Bit concerning that tbh.

The wall which is now the inner one might not be very stable, if it falls away quickly which might be a possibility we could see a big pressure fall. How I wish we had a decent doppler image....

The latest BYU shows what could be the larger outer wall behind the drier air.

The triple wall scenario might explain why winds have struggled to get up to there potential as well.

[opplevelse]

There have been simply no decent passes to get any interior structure information in over 12 hrs ... quite frustrating.

[Iceberg]

very frustrating....

He has all the ingredients to bomb(pressure wise) as and when the core is sorted still.

[Gray-Wolf]

Well the sun is up now so we should see some intensification even if it is only 'sun' driven. As you say a very strange to-do with extensive windfields a and teeny weeny eye........somethings gotta give.....!

Edited September 11, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[Iceberg]

At last we have 100Kt flight winds making Ike almost a CAT 3 IMO.

124430 2623N 08656W 7507 02441 9932 +148 +132 135093 095 055 007 00

124500 2624N 08654W 7506 02446 9937 +144 +142 137100 102 056 009 00

124530 2625N 08653W 7506 02450 9951 +134 +134 137088 098 056 012 00

[Mondy]

This can only get worse now.

The Ramsdis loop now opening up to daylight showing an extremely dangerous system in the GoM.

This is a disaster unfolding.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...ive_vis_floater

[Iceberg]

90Kt flight winds are now rather widespread in the northern side.

130000 2700N 08749W 7506 02453 9937 +153 +135 118095 096 055 002 00

130030 2701N 08752W 7506 02455 9949 +142 +138 118092 093 056 000 00

130100 2702N 08755W 7504 02457 9948 +143 +142 113089 090 056 000 00

130130 2703N 08758W 7507 02453 9945 +145 +140 113089 091 058 000 00

Looking tidier on recent loops as well.

[opplevelse]

Finally! Something! It shows the double walled feature talked about earlier, but it also shows a distinct LACK of convection ... I wish it was able to get a full scan but that looks really quite ordinary.

This can only get worse now.

The Ramsdis loop now opening up to daylight showing an extremely dangerous system in the GoM.

This is a disaster unfolding.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...ive_vis_floater

3 frames of a visible loop dont show you much really at all, we've been watching the IR loops and WV loops all the way through, and Iceberg has been providing the great flight information. Ike is poorly organised, and just has not been able to develop a proper eye. Which is a good thing for Texas.

But the vis sat loops always look spectacular I guess.

[Jack Wales]

Ike certainly has the pressure to bomb but is being inhibited by dry air IMO. If the eyewall can get itself sorted it could strenghthen a bit dut with the dry air making inroads I think it'll stay as a cat 2.

[opplevelse]

Bouy 42001 ... 40knts sustained, 52knts gusts Pres down to 992.3, waves 7.4m. and Ike is 222km away from it still.

[bazookabob]

Jus something I've been getting a bit addicted to this season- watching the local news coverage as hurricanes head towards them! It definitely gives you a new perspective on the storm... here is some live streaming video from a houston news station..

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/feature?sectio...&id=6102015

bob