Major Hurricane Ike

[Iceberg]

Yep Track is a nightmare.

The small eye is currently over water and is looking pretty good with convection not bad around it.

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 9 Sep, 2008 9:00 GMT

Hurricane IKE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Pinar Del Rio (22.4 N, 83.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours

the Cayman Islands

probability for TS is 55% currently

Mexico

probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)

probability for TS is 90% currently

Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)

probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours

George Town (19.3 N, 81.4 W)

probability for TS is 55% currently

Corpus Christi (27.7 N, 97.3 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 93 hours

Armstrong (26.9 N, 97.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 93 hours

Brownsville (25.9 N, 97.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 93 hours

Port Lavaca (28.6 N, 96.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 93 hours

San Antonio (29.4 N, 98.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours

Galveston (29.4 N, 94.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours

San Fernando (24.8 N, 98.2 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Houston (29.8 N, 95.4 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained

[liquidjp]

The mountains to the west of Havanna arne't going to do it a lot of good if it goes straight over them, but if Ike tracks slightly north through the gap...and dirctly over Havanna, it will probobally be in a healthier state. What are we talking about 4-5 hours overland?

[Coast]

[opplevelse]

Yep Track is a nightmare.

The small eye is currently over water and is looking pretty good with convection not bad around it.

I dont know where you are seeing the good convection, but this shows only quite weak / poor convection near the core (bottom left image)

Edited September 9, 2008 by opplevelse

[Iceberg]

Hi,

It shows nicely around the very small eye on IR.

I think I described it as not bad, It certainly isn't great or even good, but compared to yesterday it's not too bad.

[opplevelse]

Well latest WV sat shot shows a bit of a dry air penetration of the core, and most convection on the Western side of the core has stopped, but the core is still very compact and seems fairly stable. The next few hours will see if Ike can hold on.

[opplevelse]

34th warning has not changed the forecast track too much

000

WTNT44 KNHC 091452

TCDAT4

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IKE IS MAINTAINING A

SMALL AND WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTION IS

THAT OF A STRONGER STORM THAN THE RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA SUPPORT.

THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 965 MB ON THE LAST PASS...BUT THE PEAK

FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE NO HIGHER THAN 66 KT. SFMR DATA SEEM TO

SUPPORT A 65 KT INTENSITY...BUT SINCE THERE WAS LIMITED SAMPLING IN

THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT THE ADVISORY ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN 70 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A

WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF

MEXICO. AFTER THAT...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS

EXPECTED TO BEND THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT IN THE CENTRAL

GULF...AND THE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72

HOURS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE END OF THE

FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A

SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT INDUCES A RIGHT

TURN ON DAY 4. THE GFS AND NOGAPS HAVE A DIFFERENT PATTERN...WITH

MORE RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF IKE THAT KEEPS THE

HURRICANE MOVING BASICALLY WESTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL

WITH IKE THUS FAR...AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR

THIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO

THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE

DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BEGINNING TOMORROW AT 12Z THE NOAA G-IV

JET AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IKE TO ASSIST IN

THE DETERMINATION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

WHEN IKE IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IT WILL BE IN A VERY

DIFLUENT AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RESTRENGTHENING...AND IKE IS

EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. THE PATTERN LOOKS A

LITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE IN THE WESTERN GULF...WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY

SHEAR...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING

THERE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL

GUIDANCE...WHICH IS BASICALLY CATEGORY 2...AND THE DYNAMICAL

GFDL/HWRF WHICH SHOW CAT 3/4 STRENGTH IN THE WESTERN GULF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 22.6N 83.0W 70 KT

12HR VT 10/0000Z 23.2N 84.2W 70 KT

24HR VT 10/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W 85 KT

36HR VT 11/0000Z 24.7N 87.4W 95 KT

48HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 89.2W 100 KT

72HR VT 12/1200Z 26.0N 93.5W 100 KT

96HR VT 13/1200Z 27.5N 97.0W 100 KT

120HR VT 14/1200Z 29.0N 99.5W 40 KT...INLAND

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Iceberg]

I'd agree with that a well defined eye wall, a convection flare seems to have occured around the eye and there is very good banding on Radar.

The eye is now over Cuba Again, but should pass over within 4-6 hours pretty quick really.

Once out into the GOM intensification is set to be very intense with GFDL making Ike a CAT 5 and HWRF also making him 1Kt shy of a CAT 5 (sub 900).

The path has also settled down a bit and somewhere between Brownsville and Galveston seems likely with Corpus Christi in the middle.

[kold weather]

Ike still showing impressive structure despite being half way across Cuba, eye still looks good and eyewall and inner core in general still bursting convection.

Currently low shear is over Ike though the upper charts do show there is about 10-20kts of upper level shear over the gulf right now. Whilst it won't stop strengthening in what is otherwise a decent set-up it may slow it down further west, ther eis dry air further west circulating around one of the highs which may be an issue as well down the line.

However I'm fully expecting Ike to really power up about 6-12hrs after it leaves Cuba though it may do it right away if it can hold this presentation for a little longer...

Personally I still see no reason why we won't have a cat-4 in the gulf unless the shear really ramps up...

[hoghedge]

I'd agree with that a well defined eye wall, a convection flare seems to have occured around the eye and there is very good banding on Radar.

The eye is now over Cuba Again, but should pass over within 4-6 hours pretty quick really.

Once out into the GOM intensification is set to be very intense with GFDL making Ike a CAT 5 and HWRF also making him 1Kt shy of a CAT 5 (sub 900).

The path has also settled down a bit and somewhere between Brownsville and Galveston seems likely with Corpus Christi in the middle.

Iceberg - Is there any chance that it won't strengthen?? - I've friends and property in Houston and Galveston The friends just mailed me today "the entire Texas Coast is already on alert. The road bulletins are encouraging people to fuel up and prepare to be called to evacuate. However, I hope everyone doesn't leave at once, but rather follows the instructions. Otherwise, we will have another Rita"

[kold weather]

The other thing I didn't mention is watch this between 85-90W, the heat content is really high there and for now shear is low, these waters have supported hurricanes such as Camille, Opal, Rita, Katrina and others and so as long as the upper conditions don't slip downhill then there is no reason why we won't be seeing a little bit of RI there IMO.

[Paranoid]

On the subject of damage... this season might end up having more than 2005, if not the same number of storms retired. Dolly, Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike have all been major disasters and could be up for retirement, which is 5 storms (which rivals 2005 as i understand)

[hoghedge]

Sorry....Another question about the potential strengthening up to a Cat 5... with all the recent uptake of heat by Hanna and Gustav, I thought this would highly reduce the potential for Ike to strengthen?

Edited September 9, 2008 by hoghedge

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Hoggy!

The 'loop current' didn't get too messed up when Gus went over it so it's back up to it's potential.........seeing as he's already leaving Cuba for the last time we may see some intensification before sundown as he seems to have kept a tight,closed, eye wall throughout both encounters with Cuba.

I would not be surprised to see a cat. 4 out there by this time tomorrow but the NOAA seem to be leaning towards Ike running into unfavorable conditions prior to landfall on the Gulf coast so lets just enjoy him while he's being mighty and not harming folk!

[Iceberg]

Gustav was fast moving and in a slightly different area of the GOM.

As to Texas, A projection of the wind area gives the whole of the Texan coast Hurricane winds. Houston probably CAT 2, however this is only a projection and the path could well move north a bit.

As Kold said there is very little chance that this won't intensify once into the GOM, Gustav had 20-30Kts of shear and dry air incursions, Ike will have 5-10 shear for most of it, occasionally upto 20Kts, Gustav also only had a 36 hr window, while Ike has a number of days.

Finally we have the heat content which is shown up nicely by the >30C pool of waters it spend approx 30 hrs over.

The eye has probably just hit the coast now given the time delay in the sat pictures, have to admit it's looking pretty good atm. scrub that very good atm.

[hoghedge]

Hi Hoggy!

The 'loop current' didn't get too messed up when Gus went over it so it's back up to it's potential.........seeing as he's already leaving Cuba for the last time we may see some intensification before sundown as he seems to have kept a tight,closed, eye wall throughout both encounters with Cuba.

I would not be surprised to see a cat. 4 out there by this time tomorrow but the NOAA seem to be leaning towards Ike running into unfavorable conditions prior to landfall on the Gulf coast so lets just enjoy him while he's being mighty and not harming folk!

Thanks Gray-Wolf I did notice they were suggesting a lower Cat on arrival (wherever that might be), so keeping my fingers crossed Most of the models seem to be indicating a good westward shift and landing between Corpus Christi and Brownsville at the moment with 910mb being the lowest suggested but most between 960 and 980mb ( http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/current ) Thanks for that explanation too Iceberg

Edited September 9, 2008 by hoghedge

[londonsnow]

i think ike could be a ts only after battling cuba, before a restrengthen in the gom. latest winds are down again. the cuban terrain and ike's track hasnt helped it, but clearly hasnt helped the cubans either

[Iceberg]

Yep I would be surprised if hurricane winds are found in Ike on the current recon. But I think by tomorrow morning it will be a different story.

The 12Z models have shifted north a bit, so I would expect the NHC track to shift north a bit as well on the next advisory. Both GFDL and HWRF take Ike north of Corpus Christ. The GM's also have a central Texas hit.

Almost forgot GFS, GFDL and HWRF all land him as a CAT 4.

[Roger J Smith]

The observation at Sand Key near Key West (ESE 54 kts g 59 kts) shows that while this storm may be a cat-1 hurricane, it has an extensive strong wind field and would likely intensify very quickly in the next 24 hours to cat-3 or 4.

I am currently thinking it will make landfall on Saturday between Port O'Connor and Bay City TX but making a sharp right turn inland so this will tend to bring a fairly high storm surge into the Galveston and Houston region too.

[Iceberg]

I think you might be spot on there Roger, I was just going to post up a visual to show how large Ike is, the outflow is one of the largest I've seen in the last 10 years, inflow is fantastic as well. It has the network and shape to suck up every once of water vapour in the Caribbean and GOM.

The 12Z ECM brings it a little further north as well with a right kick as a CAT 4/5.

[kold weather]

Eye just about to come offshore, watch energy transfer from the outer bands to the inner core. Till that happens we may actually see some short term degernation of the inner core which appears to be happening now but give it 6-12hrs and just like last time deep convection should develop in the inner core and this time with no land to the north like before Ike will be able to take advantage of the high heat content in the loop current and probably ramp up quite a lot. Quite how much I'm not sure but the heat content there is high enough combined with fairly modest shear to allow this to get upto cat-4/5 range, conditions aloft not quite perfect but still more then good enough for this to really ramp up very quickly once the inner core is sorted.

[opplevelse]

Visually Ike is looking fantastic still after over 36 hrs effec tively over land.

But in terms of cnvection, it has all but stopped except near the very center and some outer bands in the NE quadrant. Still a good amount of moisture around, with no "dry" spots near the center but a lot less than in previous passes

But... wind shear is still all but non existant 5-10knts max, SST's, TPW and everything else all pointing towards massive intensification ... IF it can hold itself together before it gets over water and re intensifies. As Iceberg said, it is now likely over water again, and despite the lack of convection ... god damn the structure looks good! I doubt it wont hold together no

Edited September 9, 2008 by opplevelse

[Iceberg]

The pressure field is really starting to span out, winds haven't built up yet but that's tomorrows story.

This is abit like building a house, you spend a long time putting the foundations in place and the walls go up quickly.

We now have the foundation in place for a 150 story building.

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195500 2250N 08342W 6972 02925 9796 +096 +070 000045 046 059 025 03

[kold weather]

Ike did the same thing last time, convection weakened just as it reached the coast, note the deeper convection to the SE of the circulation. I think thats taking the main energy from Ike but once the inner core is totally over water and away from Cuba in about 6-12hrs convection will ramp up and Ike could well strengthen very rapidly.

As others have said its got a very neat little structure and the inner core is still well wrapped. We may see recon find lower winds then estimated by the NHC but once it ramps up again they will come up again.