Major Hurricane Ike

[Mondy]

Powerful Hurricane Ike left the southeastern Bahamas in a shambles on Sunday.The category four cyclone caused severe damages to critical infrastructure, homes, schools and government buildings.

http://www.jonesbahamas.com/?c=45&a=18209

Major damage reported from the Turks and Caicos Islands, caller to CNN news says that 90% of the homes there have sustained major damage and quite a few are destroyed, also large flooding problems from storm surge.

Would think that southeast TX might be the eventual destination of Ike.

Check all these images out: http://www.wiv.tc/web-ike/index.htm

Royal Navy heads for Turks and Caicos Islands with aid

[Fwoggie]

http://www.jonesbahamas.com/?c=45&a=18209

Check all these images out: http://www.wiv.tc/web-ike/index.htm

Royal Navy heads for Turks and Caicos Islands with aid

I might be missing something, but having checked out all those images, T&C doesn't seem too bad at all considering it just got hit by a cat 4. Damage seems restricted to a fair bit of flooding and superficial damage to buildings - the sort of thing I'd expect in a cat 1 not a 4. I'd expect some weaker buildings to be flattened in a cat 4.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...;hour=Animation

The latest GFS run has Ike being very naughty......

[Mondy]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...;hour=Animation

The latest GFS run has Ike being very naughty......

Jeez

[Iceberg]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...;hour=Animation

The latest GFS run has Ike being very naughty......

and not to be discounted either..... Ike almost seems determined to wipe out the US GOM Oil production.

Nothing from the direction to speed once it leaves Cuba is really known.

[Kiwi]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...;hour=Animation

The latest GFS run has Ike being very naughty......

Wow!!

Scary --Am I reading this right?

that run has Ike bombing once it hits the gulf of mexico -- having taken out much of downtown Havanna

then it just sits around for a day or two off New Orleans??

Edited September 8, 2008 by Kiwi

[Coast]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...;hour=Animation

The latest GFS run has Ike being very naughty......

I couldn't get the animation to run on that one, this model must be similar with the ECMWF animation broadly backing it up here.

MIAMI (AP) — The National Hurricane Center in Miami says powerful Hurricane Ike has roared ashore in eastern Cuba.

The center said Ike slammed into Cuba's Holguin province at 9:45 p.m. EDT Sunday as a dangerous Category 3 storm.

At 11 p.m. EDT, Ike's center was located on the north coast of eastern Cuba near Cabo Lucretia, about 135 miles east of Camaguey. The hurricane center says Ike is moving to the west near 13 mph and will be near or over central Cuba later Monday as it rakes the island.

Forecasters say Ike is expected to weaken as it moves across land in the coming days before reaching the Gulf of Mexico. Authorities are urging coastal dwellers along the Gulf from Florida to Mexico to monitor Ike because of its uncertain path

[johnholmes]

the latest from the experts is below

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM

...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR..AND A WEST TO

WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON

THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CUBA

TODAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE

TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IKE MOVES OVER CENTRAL CUBA

TODAY.

[kold weather]

Ike still on a near constant 270 motion I see, watching to see a slightly elevated motion start soon otherwise this will get into the Caribbean at least for a short amount of time.

Iceberg, wit hthe track overland Ike's inner core wil lbe ruined I agree, however this system looks like possibly having 3-5 days over the gulf and that should be enough time for it to re-gather itself in terms of the inner core, but we shall see sometimes they do and sometimes they don't.

I'd still expect a cat-2/3 before landfall IF it takes as long as some of the global models are expecting, obviously if it moves faster then it'll not get that time it needs and will be a much weaker system.

Generally in normal situations like this your looking at a 24-36hrs window for regaining the important inner core after a long land track, though this one may be a touch faster as it does have the very impressive loop current to go through which has pretty high heat content right now despite Gustav going over it just a week earlier.

Edited September 8, 2008 by kold weather

[geoffw]

could this hit the us as a cat 4 or dare i say 5?

[Iceberg]

The presentation on Radar looks fantastic, the eye has closed up and wound up well. The eye has also been travelling due just above the 21N line. At this rate it will be back over water very quickly. This due west travel was NOT predicted earlier, the latest model guidance now nolonger keep him travelling up Cuba, but along the west coast just over sea. NHC has shifted as well but remains to the west of the track consensus.

[Mondy]

http://www.spacecoastweather.org/wx15.html

[Gray-Wolf]

He seems to have taken quite a 'flat' route across Cuba too.

Did the NOAA advisory mention him being over land for 36hrs??? He's been over land 6 hrs so far and looks to be just about to pop his eye over open water in the next 2hrs or so. I suppose this has implications on both the 'structure' as he hits the sea and the intensity forcast for 36hrs hence.

He's gonna have to really jog NW to be where NOAA tell us he'll be at 18:00UTC

Edited September 8, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[Mondy]

He seems to have taken quite a 'flat' route across Cuba too.

Gustav did the same. Travelled over the flatter land of Cuba. We all thought at the time land interaction would be minimal as the area where Gustav was considerably flatter than the middle of Cuba.

Evidently, land interaction did occur massively with Gustav, as it was shot to pieces when it entered the GoM.

Wondering how Ike will cope..

[Iceberg]

Gustav suffered from Verticle shear and dry air if I remember correctly(this was correctly picked up by the GFDL and HWRF models).

Saying this some canes cope well travelling over land and some don't. Fay was fantastic at it. some cope well as long as they have a toe hold over water, some need considerable energy from the water.

Tbh we don't have anywhere near enough info to determine what camp Ike will be in.

[kold weather]

It wasn't land that done Gustav in its was fairly high shear that weakened that system down alot, something that evidently won't occur in the gulf this time round...

Anyway the motion between the last two advisories was actually a touch south of west, the ECM and UKMO have been suggesting this sort of motion may occur and the latest 06z also did have Ike breifly get into the Caribbean however this current motiion, if it can continue for the next 2-3hrs will allow Ike more time over the very warm waters to stabalise itself.

Still time for it to move WNW and stay overland but its looking more and more probable that Ike will go over the Caribbean waters which will make a big difference to possible strength upstream in the gulf...

[Gray-Wolf]

I think it'd need be a big jog to the NW to avoid getting back over water!

EDIT: Seeing as that is an 'old' image odds are his eye is now over water.

Edited September 8, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[Iceberg]

Fantastic Banding and about 1 hr from leaving Cuba I believe. Some Dry air might get entrained, but this should get mixed out pretty quickly.

[Gray-Wolf]

So, is he now bound for the yucatan peninsula and no more land until the U.S. landfall. If he still travels at the clip he's forecast then that'll be an interesting weekend's viewing for Calrisian and I :lol: .

How often can the U.S. afford to keep evacuating the coastal strip??? How many 'mother of all storms' can Naggin call before he is the 'boy that cried wolf' in the eyes of his people??? How many people won't budge this time because of Gustav's near 'no-show'

Sooooo many questions

Edited September 8, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[liquidjp]

So, is he now bound for the yucatan peninsula and no more land until the U.S. landfall. If he still travels at the clip he's forecast then that'll be an interesting weekend's viewing for Calrisian and I :lol: .

How often can the U.S. afford to keep evacuating the coastal strip??? How many 'mother of all storms' can Naggin call before he is the 'boy that cried wolf' in the eyes of his people??? How many people won't budge this time because of Gustav's near 'no-show'

Sooooo many questions

Indeed... where are the models taking him? further west and through 'the gap' or NW hugging the cuba coast and back over Cuba? The former is better for Havana I guess.

The evacuation question is a biggie, and am sure many are wrongly accusing naggin of now having egg on his face after the near miss with Gustav. I think many will not shift out a second time in one season, which could be very bad news is Ike tracks back eastwards.

[geoffw]

so what will Ikes likely strength be in the GOM. Will he be stronger than originally thoughtr?

[kold weather]

Well the synoptic situation is Ike is riding onto the western side of a strong upper high centered near Bermuda (yes its a huge and powerful upper high!) eventually it will round the other side of the high and so it will lift out to the WNW and maybe NW eventually. However the longer this takes the further westIke will go and obviously the less land Ike will go over which will have HUGE implications on Ike's strength when it does eventually emerge into the Gulf...

I'm inclined to think this may be a central/eastern Texas threat but still too early to say, LA is still well within the danger zone and I don't want to narrow it down too much just yet in terms of where it may go.

[Gray-Wolf]

Eyewall exiting land at 13:45 UTC and not sometime on wednesday. It does show you how difficult things are whewn the 'cane's are amongst the Islands. 100miles either way and you have a whole different ball game!

EDIT: So what if he now hugs the coast and then turns NW over Havanah? Terrible for Havana but a very quick overpass into the gulf for Ike.

Seeing as he was one of their (U.S.) greats it would be a pity if he had to be retired..........but then if you think of all the deaths the other Ike had a hand in........

Edited September 8, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[Mondy]

Just churned its way through Cuba :-(

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...relative_0.html

[kold weather]

Yep nearly in the Caribbean now, its a very interesting set of developments as it means the center of Ike will not track nearly as long overland and whilst its structure has weakened somewhat compared to what it would have lookedl ike if it tracked overland for the 36hrs it was meant to, its a totally different ball game.

A shorter time overland in western Cuba will mean less degeneration of the inner core which is a bad thing for the gulf as that means it will probably take less time to find its feet over the gulf of Mexico when it makes it.