Major Hurricane Ike

[Iceberg]

Max winds of 60Kt at flight level pretty much as expect with min pressure in the high 960's.

Some evidence of dual eye walls still in the pressure map but this is patchy.

[kold weather]

Iceberg, I think the highest flight leve winds I've seen was 73kts, its borderline whether this is a true hurricane but its close enough though to stay at 65kts. Recon shows eyewall open in SE quadrant but thats not surprise as thats the section thats been overland the longest.

I dare say we won't be having this conversation tomorrow about whether this is a cat-1 or not!

[summer blizzard]

Personally, i think the fact it was trying to go through a EWRC is what has kept it so strong, if it just had a small inner core with one eyewall then i suspect we would have seen massive pressure leakage as it passed over the mountains, however with two moderately strong eyewalls, this i believe has allowed Ike to keep its structure.

[kold weather]

Thats quite possible, it has the wind field of a larger system but the inner eyewall is really tight...

The thing to look for is the Sat.imagery, look at the way the convection is blowing up around the eyewall now, the system could well strengthen pretty rapidly.

So depsite having a big field the inner core is tight, thats a really good sign for RI to occur.

I therefore see no reason why this won't be a 4/5, best chance for a category-5 is over the central Gulf loop current eddy, around 25N/90W.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Still relatively unlikely it will reach cat 4 or 5.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...?large#contents

Edited September 9, 2008 by RAIN RAIN RAIN

[Cookie]

be an interesting 48 hrs watching what it dose in the GOM

new update from me.

Storm Alert issued at 9 Sep, 2008 21:00 GMT

Hurricane IKE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for TS is 60% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Pinar Del Rio (22.4 N, 83.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)

probability for TS is 100% currently

Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)

probability for TS is 65% currently

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Galveston (29.4 N, 94.8 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Port Lavaca (28.6 N, 96.7 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Corpus Christi (27.7 N, 97.3 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Brownsville (25.9 N, 97.5 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 93 hours

Houston (29.8 N, 95.4 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Armstrong (26.9 N, 97.8 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[kold weather]

I think the odds of it reaching cat-4 are actually pretty decent. The time to really watch Ike is between 87-91W, its during that time it will be over a couple of strong warm eddies with high heat content that could really power up Ike in a major way.

I don't want to make a call as to how strong just yet, want to see how it handles the movement away from Cuba and the enhanced inflow that escaping Cuba will finally give, but ballpark figure now between 910-930mbs IMO, with a note that Rita also crossed similar waters and got sub-900mbs, Camille also went sub 910mbs in these waters as well...

[SMU]

I think the odds of it reaching cat-4 are actually pretty decent. The time to really watch Ike is between 87-91W, its during that time it will be over a couple of strong warm eddies with high heat content that could really power up Ike in a major way.

I don't want to make a call as to how strong just yet, want to see how it handles the movement away from Cuba and the enhanced inflow that escaping Cuba will finally give, but ballpark figure now between 910-930mbs IMO, with a note that Rita also crossed similar waters and got sub-900mbs, Camille also went sub 910mbs in these waters as well...

Kold back on eastern on the second thread- someone posted that ikes period of RI in its early phase of devlopment has put it third in the all time RI league table-

Could happen again tonight....

S

[kold weather]

Yeah I saw that as well Steve, very impressive!

The only thing thats making me a little hesitant to go too over the top in the next 12hrs is a distinct lack of decent CDO, its got a rather strange presentation, eyewall and clear eye but no real meat on the bones of the rest of the thing. I can only assume that Cuba has affected the inflow quite a lot and once Ike is away from land we should see the convection slowly redevelop, in fact I'll be shocked if it don't over the high heat content. Also the other small issue is right now upper level divergence isn't super impressive with the main region a little to the NE of the center, hardly surprising given the strength of the storms going through south Florida today.

After the next 6-12hrs then the guns will blaze I'm pretty confident of that.

[SMU]

Yeah I saw that as well Steve, very impressive!

The only thing thats making me a little hesitant to go too over the top in the next 12hrs is a distinct lack of decent CDO, its got a rather strange presentation, eyewall and clear eye but no real meat on the bones of the rest of the thing. I can only assume that Cuba has affected the inflow quite a lot and once Ike is away from land we should see the convection slowly redevelop, in fact I'll be shocked if it don't over the high heat content. Also the other small issue is right now upper level divergence isn't super impressive with the main region a little to the NE of the center, hardly surprising given the strength of the storms going through south Florida today.

After the next 6-12hrs then the guns will blaze I'm pretty confident of that.

Last IR shot has spectacular convection & masses of inflow & outflow bands-

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATRAPID/anim16ir.html

I think we are seeing something historical developing-

S

[PersianPaladin]

Last IR shot has spectacular convection & masses of inflow & outflow bands-

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATRAPID/anim16ir.html

I think we are seeing something historical developing-

S

Aye; this system is nearly stationery at the moment and drawing up a lot of energy from the surrounding warm-pools with a good deal of convergence helping to build convection around the central vortex.

This may well reach a Cat 3 at least before landfall west of NO.

[Iceberg]

Very good agreement on a mid Texas landfall around Corpus, a bit of room for him to go further north still a bit closer to Galveston, I think particularly if he intensifies more than the NHC forecast which is very likely.

Ike has the formation of a classic S shape Hurricane with the 2 inflows and Ike is a Hurricane now at 70Kts, still very good in all aspects, Convection should continue to fire up as well.

Cuban radar shows the eye has closed to the south and recon have just arrived.

It should be a good days watching.

This area was around 40-50Kts last night now 60Kts seems quite widespread. By tonight Ike might well have a very large Hurricane wind field.

052130 2426N 08607W 6967 03113 9999 +093 +080 057061 062 044 000 00

052200 2425N 08606W 6965 03115 9998 +094 +080 055061 062 045 000 00

052230 2423N 08605W 6964 03108 9991 +099 +080 055060 060 042 000 03

052300 2422N 08603W 6965 03113 9993 +100 +080 055062 062 041 000 03

052330 2421N 08602W 6965 03113 9989 +100 +080 054062 062 043 000 00

052400 2420N 08601W 6967 03106 9984 +102 +080 052062 063 044 000 00

052430 2419N 08559W 6965 03109 9984 +100 +080 052063 064 044 000 03

052500 2418N 08558W 6966 03100 9978 +104 +080 049060 061 044 000 00

052530 2416N 08557W 6963 03105 9978 +103 +080 050056 057 044 000 00

052600 2415N 08556W 6967 03096 9976 +100 +080 050056 057 044 000 00

052630 2414N 08554W 6967 03098 9973 +104 +080 050057 057 044 000 00

052700 2413N 08553W 6968 03093 9969 +107 +080 048055 056 044 000 00

052730 2412N 08551W 6967 03094 9966 +109 +080 045055 056 045 000 00

052800 2411N 08550W 6967 03096 9972 +103 +080 047058 059 045 000 00

052830 2410N 08549W 6967 03095 9968 +104 +080 046060 060 045 000 00

052900 2409N 08547W 6967 03088 9964 +105 +080 042060 062 047 000 00

052930 2408N 08546W 6965 03089 9961 +106 +080 041062 063 046 000 00

053000 2407N 08544W 6967 03088 9959 +107 +080 041060 062 048 000 00

053030 2406N 08543W 6967 03088 9953 +110 +080 040060 061 049 000 03

053100 2405N 08541W 6965 03086 9950 +110 +080 038060 061 049 000 03

[opplevelse]

Last IR shot has spectacular convection & masses of inflow & outflow bands-

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATRAPID/anim16ir.html

I think we are seeing something historical developing-

S

Ummm no the convection is far less than spectacular, it is in fact fairly ordinary. IR sat shots show cloud top temperatures, which is an indication of cloud height, which can be an indication of convection, but NOT of the strength of the convection. The 85GHz images see inside the clouds and look at rising air (i.e. real convection strength), and looking at the image below, while there are a few spots of good convection (in partic the eastern quad), it is hardly spectacular, particullarly around the core, where it is fairly weak (however the structure of the core is good).

THIS is "Specacular convection"

Sensationalist words are just that. Sensationalist ...

[Iceberg]

055300 2319N 08436W 6967 02834 9648 +132 +080 050009 015 030 000 00

055330 2317N 08434W 6963 02839 9646 +134 +080 215009 016 031 000 00

055400 2316N 08433W 6963 02844 9648 +137 +080 223026 031 037 000 00

Pressure of 965mb found but flight winds of only upper 60's max. in the NW and SE quads.

The pressure gradient in the SE is very tight as it is still moving away from land.

Opplevelse, it will be interesting to look at those images post eclipse as I think convection is still firing and increasing whilst we maintain the diurnal max.

[Iceberg]

The eye is still open, looks closed on radar so I don't think this is a major issue. The eye is also a bit mis-shapen, a stronger NE quad should bring back higher flight winds in the next 30-40 mins.

000

URNT12 KNHC 100605

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008

A. 10/05:53:10Z

B. 23 deg 18 min N

084 deg 36 min W

C. 700 mb 2797 m

D. 64 kt

E. 312 deg 5 nm

F. 034 deg 066 kt

G. 305 deg 072 nm

H. 964 mb

I. 11 C/ 3049 m

J. 14 C/ 3049 m

K. 14 C/ NA

L. OPEN SW

M. E30/20/10

N. 12345/7

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF304 1709A IKE OB 05

MAX FL WIND 66 KT NW QUAD 05:32:10 Z

RADAR PRESENTATION GOOD. HEAVIEST CONVECTION NE SIDE. WIND CENTER LESS THAN 3NM IN DIAMETER

They've done a bit of digging to the east of the eye north and south and found some stronger winds. Up to 80Kts flight.

062300 2347N 08340W 6965 03043 9944 +077 +077 165070 072 063 013 00

062330 2349N 08340W 6969 03047 9950 +075 +075 160076 079 063 013 00

062400 2351N 08340W 6971 03039 9945 +080 +080 156078 081 062 009 00

062430 2354N 08340W 6968 03048 9934 +092 +080 154078 080 061 008 00

062500 2356N 08340W 6965 03056 9931 +096 +080 154075 076 061 007 00

062530 2358N 08340W 6967 03055 9937 +092 +080 152074 076 061 007 00

062600 2401N 08340W 6967 03055 9939 +092 +080 153070 071 061 006 00

062630 2403N 08340W 6972 03051 9942 +093 +080 150069 069 061 006 00

062700 2405N 08340W 6963 03066 9942 +094 +080 151069 071 060 006 00

062730 2408N 08340W 6969 03060 9939 +098 +080 152070 070 059 000 00

062800 2410N 08340W 6967 03066 9942 +099 +080 152071 071 059 000 00

062830 2412N 08340W 6965 03069 9966 +081 +080 149070 071 057 000 00

062900 2415N 08340W 6967 03069 9983 +070 +070 143070 071 057 005 00

062930 2417N 08340W 6972 03064 9984 +072 +072 138071 073 057 003 00

063000 2419N 08340W 6967 03074 9978 +079 +079 136069 072 055 001 00

[opplevelse]

3NM that is a tiny center of circulation!

The OLS image shows a well defined eye (which is a bit surprising if it is that small ... it may be coning out to the top and only 3NM at the SFC)

Ooops my bad, I missed the time stamp on the OLS image ... it is about 6hrs old, which would explain the eye. Current IR sat shots show a large CDO and possible reorganisation... will be interesting to see what reappears in the next 2-6hrs!

[opplevelse]

The Radar image

Shows almost a double eyewall structure developing. There is no recent internal sat imagery to confirm whether this is simply a product of attenuation however.

[Iceberg]

A good CDO forming, convection has really fired with the warmer SST's and away from the coast.

Looks like the little eye has virtually collapsed (which is a good thing for intensification).

A larger eye is forming very readily.

[Iceberg]

Pressure dropping now 962, should be sub 960 soon.

[Iceberg]

Cloud tops approaching -90C are now near the eye. The eye also seems to be opening up and expanding is nolonger as small as it was. Ike appears to be doing a very neat Eye wall trick due to the intense banding it has.

[Iceberg]

We have our first sub 960 pressure recording, Just intensification certainly seems to be underway, too early to say RI, but still at a good pace. The winds will take awhile to respond maybe upto 6 hrs or so.

This pressure would normally support a 100Kt CAT 3 storm, although Ike's circumstances are a little different.

100030 2351N 08501W 6965 02803 9599 +146 +100 091026 031 041 000 00

flight winds starting to respond a little.

100200 2355N 08459W 6952 02871 9713 +097 +097 111077 082 073 031 00

100230 2357N 08459W 6989 02865 9726 +116 +100 108077 078 063 008 03

100300 2358N 08458W 6960 02909 9759 +106 +096 112075 077 062 007 03

Edited September 10, 2008 by Iceberg

[Cookie]

new update.

still a good 70 hrs out

Storm Alert issued at 10 Sep, 2008 9:00 GMT

Hurricane IKE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Cuba

probability for TS is 100% currently

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Mexico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Pinar Del Rio (22.4 N, 83.7 W)

probability for TS is 100% currently

Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)

probability for TS is 70% currently

Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)

probability for TS is 70% currently

Port Lavaca (28.6 N, 96.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours

Corpus Christi (27.7 N, 97.3 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours

Galveston (29.4 N, 94.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours

Armstrong (26.9 N, 97.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours

Houston (29.8 N, 95.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Brownsville (25.9 N, 97.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Austin (30.3 N, 97.7 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 93 hours

San Antonio (29.4 N, 98.5 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

San Fernando (24.8 N, 98.2 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[kold weather]

Convection blowing up over the inner core around the sort of time frame I expected. This is allowing some pretty rapid pressure drops with the latest down to 959.9mbs. I don't think its totaslly got rid of its Cuba issues still in that the inflow is still drapped over a good portion of western Cuba but its far improved in terms of presentation compared to 12hrs ago.

Within the next 24-36hrs we should see much stronger deepening of Ike and it should ramp up. Shear is a little bit higher then it was about 12hrs, thanks to an upper high and is really preventing the western section from establishing itself...this could become a bit of a problem for this system if the shear gets even stornger because. Right now the inner core still looks solid so the shear isn't quite as strong a sit was with Gustav but if it doesn't ease Ike probably will have a hard time getting above a 3.

Edited September 10, 2008 by kold weather

[Iceberg]

Pressure now down to 957mb, we are probably talking about 2mb an hour at the moment which is pretty good going.

GFDL takes this up eventually as a CAT 5 hit on Texas, HWRF only a CAT 4. It noticable that the banding is tightening now though under the convection and he does seem a little sheared but this is really only limiting outflow which shouldn't stop it getting to a least a 3 as you say Kold. It wil lbe interesting to see if the winds increase as the wind field decreases due to the initial tightening this afternoon.

114830 2344N 08521W 7516 02154 9593 +188 +166 312032 039 045 002 00

114900 2346N 08520W 7508 02148 9575 +190 +160 324015 023 025 001 00

114930 2347N 08518W 7511 02140 9570 +192 +158 165007 015 022 000 03

115000 2348N 08516W 7516 02152 9594 +183 +161 153032 038 040 004 00

Winds slowly reponding.

120730 2437N 08423W 7524 02407 9919 +141 +141 130074 077 058 007 00

120800 2439N 08421W 7533 02400 9924 +140 +140 132072 073 060 008 00

120830 2440N 08420W 7502 02439 9932 +135 +135 131073 073 058 010 00

120900 2441N 08418W 7504 02440 9939 +133 +133 130077 079 057 012 00

120930 2443N 08417W 7502 02446 9943 +132 +132 130078 078 057 013 00

121000 2444N 08416W 7505 02443 9943 +133 +133 132079 080 058 011 00

121030 2445N 08414W 7504 02445 9941 +138 +137 134080 081 056 010 00

121100 2447N 08413W 7499 02459 9952 +134 +134 133083 084 058 010 00

121130 2448N 08411W 7501 02462 9955 +137 +137 134082 083 056 009 00

121200 2449N 08410W 7504 02461 9960 +138 +136 133081 081 057 010 00

121230 2451N 08408W 7505 02464 9967 +134 +134 134077 079 056 009 00

121300 2452N 08407W 7506 02467 9972 +133 +133 134075 077 055 010 00

121330 2454N 08405W 7505 02472 9977 +130 +130 134077 078 054 010 00

121400 2455N 08404W 7505 02475 9984 +128 +128 131075 076 052 009 00

121430 2456N 08402W 7505 02478 9989 +127 +127 132078 079 048 010 00

121500 2458N 08401W 7506 02477 9991 +126 +126 133075 078 999 999 03

121530 2501N 08401W 7503 02485 9988 +130 +130 131070 074 999 999 03

121600 2503N 08402W 7504 02482 9987 +132 +132 130075 077 999 999 03

121630 2504N 08405W 7505 02483 9990 +130 +130 127076 078 052 009 00

121700 2505N 08407W 7505 02481 9983 +137 +137 130079 080 053 006 03

Edited September 10, 2008 by Iceberg

[kold weather]

Structure slightly changing again with Ike. The deep convection has pulled into the eyewall and the eye is starting to clear out again on IR which is a strong hint that strengthening is starting to increase in rate now.

Numerous flight level winds between 75-85kts being reported now, wouldn't surprise me if soon the recon missions will find higher winds in the E.Eyewall as its really bursting now.

Iceberg, I suspect winds may well catch up pretty quickly with the pressure this afternoon as the the system winds up and the convection continues to stay deep in the eyewall.